Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The election broadcast from all candidates for all offices on the ballot, President, Governors, State Assemblies and Congress (Senate and Chamber of Deputies), started this weekend:

From Maranhão State.

Lula's broadcast was quite good, Bolsonaro's also surprised me because, well, it was quite sane, a bit full of BS but, yeah, sane. Didn't like Soraya Thronicke's broadcast, like we say in Portuguese "Presunção e água benta".

Weird to see Progressistas supporting Lula...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Group "Jews of Democracy" criticized Bolsonaro for speaking "Deus, Pátria e Família" (god, motherland and family), the moto of the Integralistas, a Brazilian far-right movement in the 1930s

It's not too surprising Bolsonaro would quote such a slogan.
Despite Integralism not sharing the racial views of the NSDAP, they were also profoundly anti-Semitic and I can see easily why a group called "Jews of Democracy" would have concern for the President of Brazil using a Integralist slogan.
Bolsonaro sure likes to use extreme rhetoric when he so sees it fit.
Will be nice if Lula can restore a better atmosphere if elected. Brazil has had a hard past five years....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

Surprising to see Rio Grande do Sul going for Lula.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

Surprising to see Rio Grande do Sul going for Lula.

Look at the election maps for 1989, 1994 and 1998 and it won’t be as surprising.

Rio Grande do Sul in those elections was always the most pro-PT state, alongside Rio de Janeiro (yup, feels like a loooong time ago). In 2002 it also voted for Lula but the entire country also did it so it’s less newsworthy.

Only in 2006 it shifted to PSDB in presidential elections and kept doing it in 2010 and 2014. In 2018 it voted for Bolsonaro.

If anything the noticeable trend from the state is its strong anti-incumbent bias. It voted for PT when it was out of power, but voted for the right whenever PT (or its VP, Temer) was in power. Now it’s going back to PT because it’s out of power… If Lula wins, they will turn to the right in 2026.

I guess it comes down to the time frame that is held to be most relevant.
I know that state once was one of a very few that voted for Lula, but those days of the left doing that unusually well were mostly over.
Though, it shouldn't be surprising to see Lula winning there if Bolsonaro has less than a dozen states voting for him.
What makes Rio Grande do Sul the most left-leaning of those three?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My results were...weird.

Cyrus Gomes 61%
Simone Tebet 60%
Lula da Silva 60%
Jair Bolsonaro 58%

The high Bolsonaro score comes from the firmly pro-life answer I put, and probably agreement with some of the law-and-order proposals. I didn't pay too much attention to the weights either...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlas-style

It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlas-style

It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.

If anybody has state-by-state results for the first (or second) round of 2018, I can try to make an Atlas-style swing map to go with this.

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2018
Here you go

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

He was leading Evangelicals like almost 2 to 1.

I guess that means something in the ballpark of the low 40s to early 50s, then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's the swing map for 2018-2022 first round only, going by PT-Bolsonaro margin. Since it's first round only, it'll have some numbers skewed by non-top-tier candidates. Now that I have everything in Excel, I'll mess with the data a bit more later and see what else I can do, but I'm logging off for a few hours.

Thank you for your hard work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the path of least resistance for a Lula governing majority in Congress?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

Some media outlets are actually suggesting that it was discussed in the Presidential Palace. Seriously.

Comes to show the amount of trust that Bolsonaro has fostered.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this stunt somehow works in stopping a Lula victory when all votes are counted, then Bolsonaro should...should...be removed from office, right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

• Uol
• Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
• Brasil247 (Lula supporters)

Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

• Uol
• Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
• Brasil247 (Lula supporters)

Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

Me too, I love having fun watching them sometimes LOL

If I had 22 real for every time Bolsonaro supporters posted '22' in the JovemPan livechat, I'd be as rich as the people running the bus companies trying to engage in voter suppression.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polls closing is less than ten minutes away.
Anyone want to guess what kind of lead Bolsonaro might have in the early count?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brazilian Public Security Forum considers 'very serious action by the PRF'

The Brazilian Public Security Forum released a note to ask for a "fast and enlightening" investigation of what it considered to be "a very serious action by the Federal Highway Police, which carried out more than 560 inspection operations on this election Sunday and harmed thousands of people" in the country.

The entity emphasizes that the PRF "is not a government body, which can be manipulated and used at the whim of electoral interests, but a State body, which represents all Brazilians".
Half of PRF's operations were in the Northeast

Throughout the morning and until early afternoon, the PRF failed to comply with an order from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and carried out this Sunday (30), the day of the second round of voting, at least 560 inspection operations against vehicles making public transport for voters. .

The number of manifestations is included in the PRF's internal control. According to details obtained by TV Globo , the first 549 operations registered were distributed as follows throughout the country:

272 operations in the Northeast (49.5% of the total);
122 non-Center-West (22.22%);
59 non-North (10.7%);
48 in the Southeast (8.74%), and
48 in the South (8.74%).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Distrito Federal (51.7%-36.9% to Bolsonaro in the first round) is currently 59.9%-40.1% with 19.5% in.

I recall that during the count in the first round in DF it continued to shift away from Bolsonaro as more vote came in here.

If we were to crudely extrapolate this to nationwide level, this would result in a 51-49 or 52-48 Lula victory. Probably not a good sign for Bolsonaro here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is barely above 70% in Roraima and Acre.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trust the plan, patriots in control.

In this is contained 13 reasons why you should be hopeful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lula lá, com dignidade
Lula lá, o Brasil merece
Outra vez oportunidade pra sorrir
E brilhar nossa estrela!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Federal District is almost entirely in

First Round was
Bolsonaro: 51.65
Lula: 36.85

Second Round right now:
Bolsonaro: 58.9
Lula: 41.1

Good enough jump for Lula.

A win is a win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's kind of weird to think that Rede Globo was on PT's side this time, isn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro: 17,577,548 (51.06%)
Lula: 16,846,028 (48.94%)
29.33% REPORTING

I don't think its over yet.
Bolso winning Sao paolo by 16 right now although it's still early. That's the largest province in brazil. Bolso won by 6 in the first round.

Now, I don't think the election is sowed up just yet, but this meme is too hilarious for me to not give you a recommend. Keep up the good work!