Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the cities (not states) of

São Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=30s

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

You can see the full results, and the maps which shows the results in the boroughs.

In São Paulo, the left won only in 2002. The winners were
1989: Covas 1sr round, Collor 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
2002: Lula
2006: Geraldo Alckmin
2010: José Serra
2014: Aécio Neves
2018: Jair Bolsonaro
PT never won in the wealthiest boroughs in the middle of the city. Even Serra won there in 2002.

In Rio de Janeiro, the right won only in 1994 and 2018. The winners were
1989: Brizola 1st round, Lula 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Lula
2002: Lula
2006: Lula
2010: Dilma Rousseff
2014: Marina Silva 1st round, Dilma Rousseff 2nd round
2018: Jair Bolsonaro

[firedumptruck]

Who are DEMOCRATS supporting?

They usually go for the center right, but they seem to have forged a strange coalition recently.

[Red Velvet]

Who are DEMOCRATS supporting?

They usually go for the center right, but they seem to have forged a strange coalition recently.

DEM merged with PSL to form a new party, UNIÃO BRASIL (Union Brazil)

They will likely just support Moro or the PSDB candidate (Doria), if I had to guess based on ideological alignment. But they might be pragmatic enough to support Bolsonaro who has bigger vote intention so that they can elect more people. Maybe they would even support Lula if they think his election is inevitable, that way they may assure even more people from their party get elected to congress, but that’s a longshot.

[Red Velvet]

Results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the cities (not states) of

São Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=30s

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

You can see the full results, and the maps which shows the results in the boroughs.

In São Paulo, the left won only in 2002. The winners were
1989: Covas 1sr round, Collor 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
2002: Lula
2006: Geraldo Alckmin
2010: José Serra
2014: Aécio Neves
2018: Jair Bolsonaro
PT never won in the wealthiest boroughs in the middle of the city. Even Serra won there in 2002.

In Rio de Janeiro, the right won only in 1994 and 2018. The winners were
1989: Brizola 1st round, Lula 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Lula
2002: Lula
2006: Lula
2010: Dilma Rousseff
2014: Marina Silva 1st round, Dilma Rousseff 2nd round
2018: Jair Bolsonaro

They appear to behave so differently on the surface but they’re actually kinda similar. Rio simply has more low-income areas spread out throughout the city and they’re places where a lot of people live.

The main difference is that ironically, PT is much stronger as a party in São Paulo despite having a better track record in presidential elections in Rio. Thing is that they always ran against PSDB between 1994-2014 and PSDB is even weaker in Rio than PT.

If you look at the elections without PSDB being big, PT also performs poorly in Rio. The most voted candidate in 1989 was Brizola (PDT) in the 1st round, especially in the lower income areas. But since he finished 3rd nationally, his huge amount of votes in Rio migrated to Lula in the runoff.

And then 2018 was the first year where practically all neighborhoods (rich and poor) voted for the right in Rio since PT was fragile and the party was never particularly strong in Rio anyways. It will do better in 2022 due to the rise of anti-Bolsonaro voter, but I have reservations on whether it will do as good in the city like it did when it was put up against PSDB.

In both cities in all years except Rio 2018, where the shift was brutal against PT in poorer areas, you can see the class divide very clearly.

I wish Rodrigo Neves (PDT) would enter in a deal with PSB, PT and all the other left parties to run for senate and leave the path more open for Freixo to be the sole option from the camp in the Governor race. These parties need to start being more strategical and organize properly based on which area who has more chances.

In São Paulo, the unity on the senate should be behind a PT candidate as well. Since Boulos is so popular and would do better at the executive (which requires more excitement if we’re honest) there should be a deal for Boulos (PSOL) to be the option for Governor and Haddad (PT) to be the one to run for Senate. Boulos has shown he attracts the same type of PT voter.

Same thing in Rio where it’s clear that the smart decision is to give open space for Freixo (PSB) to run for governor as the only option on the left and then let a PDT candidate, like Rodrigo Neves, run for the senate as the sole option since the party is naturally stronger in Rio. A PDT+PSOL unity would be such a broad hit in Rio.

But I guess in São Paulo PT is eyeing to run in both Governor and senate, with Haddad in Governor and maybe a Suplicy in Senate because in theory they could be possible victories. I think they should run for senate only with Haddad and then let all the other big names there push a bunch of people to federal congress there. And in Rio, both PSOL and PDT will run candidates for the senate as it’s hard to see an union between those two. Sadly.

[buritobr]

Who are DEMOCRATS supporting?

They usually go for the center right, but they seem to have forged a strange coalition recently.

DEM merged with PSL to form a new party, UNIÃO BRASIL (Union Brazil)

They will likely just support Moro or the PSDB candidate (Doria), if I had to guess based on ideological alignment. But they might be pragmatic enough to support Bolsonaro who has bigger vote intention so that they can elect more people. Maybe they would even support Lula if they think his election is inevitable, that way they may assure even more people from their party get elected to congress, but that’s a longshot.

DEM was becoming a smaller party after mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes, representative and former president of the House Rodrigo Maia and the president of the Senate Rodrigo Pacheco left the party and joined the PSD. After these defections, I would not use the words "center-right" to refer to the DEM. I would remove the "center-". The remaining congressmen vote very loyal to Bolsonaro.
Now, DEM merged with former Bolsonaro's party PSL and creates União Brasil. I believe they will support some non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate. We don't know whom. We don't even know if Sergio Moro and João Doria will run for president.

[buritobr]

Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo for president from 1989 to 2014 because:
1) The % of the low income population in Rio de Janeiro is higher than it is in São Paulo
2) Low income people in Rio de Janeiro used to vote on the left of low income people in São Paulo
3) Middle/upper income people in São Paulo used to vote on the right of middle/upper income people in Rio de Janeiro

In 2018, for the first time in the New Republic, Rio de Janeiro voted on the right of São Paulo for president.
Motive 3 survived. Bolsonaro had higher margin in the middle/upper class boroughs of São Paulo than in the ones of Rio de Janeiro. But 2 was completely removed. Haddad still won some low income boroughs in São Paulo. Bolsonaro won big landslides in all low income boroughs in Rio de Janeiro, he had a higger margin there than he had in the middle income boroughs. So, motive 1 had inverted effect.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll February 3rd-6th 2022

First round
Lula 46%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%

Bolsonaro's evaluation
Good/very good: 22%
Regular: 25%
Bad/very bad: 51%

The results have been stable in the last 4 months

[buritobr]

Magazine Veja has a tool to calculte the average of different polls conducted in different days. The tecnique is similar to Five Third Eight's one
https://interativos.veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/2022/brasil/agregador-pesquisas/presidente

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll, February 7th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 3%, Janones 1%, Tebet 1%
Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 24%
Regular: 20%
Bad/very bad: 54%

Comparing to the last poll, Bolsonaro went 1 p up and Lula went 1 p down. This is the variation in the margin of error. The numbers are very stable in the last 4 months.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Given that Hamilton Mourao is quitting/being kicked from running mate position, who will Jair replace him with?

[buritobr]

Given that Hamilton Mourao is quitting/being kicked from running mate position, who will Jair replace him with?

Possible Bolsonaro's running mate in 2022.
1) General Braga Netto. He is a general closer to Bolsonaro.
2) Minister of Agriculture Thereza Cristina. She is one of the most moderate ministers. But of course, not moderate, it's just the comparison. But the PL might want a moderate running mate.
3) A PL professional politician or some professional politician of other allied party.

[buritobr]

A topic still not discussed in the media:

The 200th anniversary of the Independence will take place on September 7th. The first round of the elections will take place on October 2nd. I still don't know in which degree the celebrations can benefit the incumbents. I stll don't know what kind of celebration will we have.

I learned in this Forum that the 200th anniversary of the Independence of the USA benefited Gerald Ford. He closed the gap to Jimmy Carter after the celebration. And the distance of the dates was bigger: July 4th 1976 the celebration, November 2nd the election.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

PoderData 2022 presidential election poll:

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-lula-tem-40-contra-31-de-bolsonaro-no-1o-turno/

1st round
Lula (Worker's Party) 40%
Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Sérgio Moro (We Can) 9%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 4%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
André Janones (Forward) 2%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 1%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 1%
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 0%
Felipe D'Ávila (New Party) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 50 % vs. Bolsonaro 35 %
Lula 47% vs. Moro 32%
Lula 45% vs. Ciro 22%
Lula 46% vs. Doria 18%

[buritobr]

PoderData 2022 presidential election poll:

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-lula-tem-40-contra-31-de-bolsonaro-no-1o-turno/

1st round
Lula (Worker's Party) 40%
Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Sérgio Moro (We Can) 9%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 4%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
André Janones (Forward) 2%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 1%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 1%
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 0%
Felipe D'Ávila (New Party) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 50 % vs. Bolsonaro 35 %
Lula 47% vs. Moro 32%
Lula 45% vs. Ciro 22%
Lula 46% vs. Doria 18%

We could expect this variation inside the margin of error.

In the last 30 days, there were no bad news to Bolsonaro. Besides, he and his ministers reduced the number of sh**t they speak.

[Flyersfan232]

Ipespe Poll, February 7th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 3%, Janones 1%, Tebet 1%
Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 24%
Regular: 20%
Bad/very bad: 54%

Comparing to the last poll, Bolsonaro went 1 p up and Lula went 1 p down. This is the variation in the margin of error. The numbers are very stable in the last 4 months.

what is Regular?

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll, February 7th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 3%, Janones 1%, Tebet 1%
Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 24%
Regular: 20%
Bad/very bad: 54%

Comparing to the last poll, Bolsonaro went 1 p up and Lula went 1 p down. This is the variation in the margin of error. The numbers are very stable in the last 4 months.

what is Regular?

Not so good, not so bad

In Brazil, approval rate polls usually have not 2, but 3 possibilities of answer

[Red Velvet]

Ipespe Poll, February 7th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 3%, Janones 1%, Tebet 1%
Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 24%
Regular: 20%
Bad/very bad: 54%

Comparing to the last poll, Bolsonaro went 1 p up and Lula went 1 p down. This is the variation in the margin of error. The numbers are very stable in the last 4 months.

what is Regular?

Neither approval or disapproval. Or half-approval and half-disapproval. People who may like the government in some stuff but dislike it in others.

It’s good way to not simplify things with only a binary choice. That way, you know that when people say the government is good or bad, you know they really MEAN that.

[buritobr]

Ipespe, state of São Paulo, February 2022

Governor poll
Fernando Haddad (PT) 28%, Marcio França (PSB) 18%, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 11%, Tarcísio de Freitas 10%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%

Governor poll when the interviewed people receive the information that Fernando Haddad is endorsed by Lula and Alckmin, Tarcísio de Freitas is endorsed by Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Garcia is endorsed by João Dória
Fernando Haddad 38%, Tarcísio de Freitas 25%, Rodrigo Garcia 10%

President
First round
Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 11%, Ciro 7%, Doria 5%
Runoff
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 34%

Evaluation of Doria's administration
Good/Very good: 24%
Regular: 38%
Bad/Very bad: 36%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 24%
Regular: 19%
Bad/Very bad: 56%

Evaluation of Doria's job in the pandemic
Good/Very good: 45%
Regular: 30%
Bad/Very bad: 23%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's job in the pandemic
Good/Very good: 21%
Regular: 19%
Bad/Very bad: 58%

As we can see, Bolsonaro's approval rate in São Paulo is similar to the national level, but since São Paulo is anti-Lula (even thought it's his home state), Lula's margin is smaller than the national level. There are at least 2% who don't consider Bolsonaro's administration Good/Very good, but will vote for him in the first round anyway. PT can win the presidencial election in São Paulo for the 2nd time in 2022 (the only time took place when Lula won there in 2002).

PT is close to win the election of governor of the state of São Paulo for the first time. Haddad is doing better in the poll for governor than Lula is doing for president.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

CNT/MDA Institute

2022 presidential election poll

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,2%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 28%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 6,7%
Moro (We Can) 6,4%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,8%
Janones (Forward) 1,5%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 0,6%
D’Ávila (New Party) 0,3%
Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 0,3%

Runoff

Lula 53,2% vs. Bolsonaro 35,3%

Bolsonaro 35,6% vs. Moro 34%

Bolsonaro 41,4% vs. Doria 29,8%

[Pres Mike]

Go Lula!

[Red Velvet]

There’s a general climate of “Lula has already won” that is actually good for Bolsonaro because no one likes a decided election. Also, the benefits of being the incumbent will start kicking in this year as we enter the campaign…

Meanwhile, overconfidence can prevent left militants to actually work and campaign and just sit as if they just need to wait for Lula’s election.

Bolsonaro has been strategically quiet since his coup attempt in September 7th 2021 failed and didn’t get enough people on the streets. There have been no major public comments that are designed to mobilize the more radical base, like it used to be a constant until that day and helped reduce his popularity during the COVID pandemic. People don’t see him daily saying sh**t anymore and that has helped him at the very minimum contain his popularity fall.

Not to mention the signs from economy in 2022 have been somewhat positive, at least so far two months in. Nothing is decided yet and this has potential to still be a close election. Never underestimate the power of government machine the incumbent has.

[buritobr]

New polls

Ipespe, February 21-23
Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro 7%, Doria 3%
Runoff: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%
Bolsonaro's approval rate: Approve 31%, Disapprove 63%

Exame Ideia, February 18-22
Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 27%, Moro 10%, Ciro 8%, Doria 2%

All these polls in mid February are showing a slight recovery of Bolsonaro

State of Minas Gerais (most bellwheter state), Itatiaia February 21
Governor: Zema 41%, Khalil 20%
President: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 5%, Ciro 4%
Ticket splitting in Minas Gerais. Lula and incumbent right-wing pro Bolsonaro governor Zema are leading

State of Acre (best Bolsonaro state in 2018)
President: Bolsonaro 40,9%, Lula 30,1%, Moro 7%, Ciro 4,8%, Doria 2,7%

[buritobr]

Impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine

Bolsonaro's supporting base is divided. There are some who see Putin as an important conservative leader. There are others who like Ukraine far-right groups. He tries to be neutral.

The left is also divided. Lula and Dilma Rousseff had very good relations with Putin when they were presidents. Russia is an important trade partner with many countries in Latin America. This is normal. But some members of the left go further: they think that Russian military action was justified because the presence of NATO in Ukraine would be dangerous and because Russia needs to protect the pro-Russia population in the east. This is a very high level of stupidity.
Some negative view of part of the Brazilian left on Ukraine is emotional: the histories of Brazil and Ukraine in 2010 were somehow similar. The way in which Viktor Yanukovych was removed from the office was similar to what happened to Dilma Rousseff. No authoritarian regime was implemented in both countries, but there was some non official violence against the left. In Ukraine, the violence was heavier. A far-right pro-Bolsonaro activist once said: "let's turn this country into a Ukraine". OK, we can draw some parallels, but agreeing on a invasion is stupidity.

The non-Bolsonaro right is united: everyone is anti Russia and pro Ukraine and the west.

But I don't think there will be a big impact on the election. Maybe, in October, nobody cares.

[Red Velvet]

The left-right union on this matter is so delicious. It’s the centrists who are more strongly in support of Ukraine but they don’t really matter.

Get ready for this trend:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1497214623052935173

[RodPresident]

Impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine

Bolsonaro's supporting base is divided. There are some who see Putin as an important conservative leader. There are others who like Ukraine far-right groups. He tries to be neutral.

The left is also divided. Lula and Dilma Rousseff had very good relations with Putin when they were presidents. Russia is an important trade partner with many countries in Latin America. This is normal. But some members of the left go further: they think that Russian military action was justified because the presence of NATO in Ukraine would be dangerous and because Russia needs to protect the pro-Russia population in the east. This is a very high level of stupidity.
Some negative view of part of the Brazilian left on Ukraine is emotional: the histories of Brazil and Ukraine in 2010 were somehow similar. The way in which Viktor Yanukovych was removed from the office was similar to what happened to Dilma Rousseff. No authoritarian regime was implemented in both countries, but there was some non official violence against the left. In Ukraine, the violence was heavier. A far-right pro-Bolsonaro activist once said: "let's turn this country into a Ukraine". OK, we can draw some parallels, but agreeing on a invasion is stupidity.

The non-Bolsonaro right is united: everyone is anti Russia and pro Ukraine and the west.

But I don't think there will be a big impact on the election. Maybe, in October, nobody cares.

It's true that PT aligned-left see Yanukovych's fall as a role model about what happened to Dilma 2 years later. An anti-american (hardly in Dilma's case) government who's accused of corruption and of economic mismanagement (in a right-wing view) and of Bolivarian alignments (Russophilia). They see as the prototype of hybrid war.
This quote about "Ukranization" was from a feminist turned anti-abortion and far-right activist Sarah Winter who cosplayed FEMEN. She said that she was trained in Ukraine and led attacks against Supreme Court.
Ciro made a good statement today that "Brazil should repudiate, without halfwords, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian Federation".
"But without forget that current confrontation: the effort of great powers to subjugate smaller countries and project their spheres of influency and the clash of hegemonical pretentions that put survival of humanity in risk"
For us, Brazilians, fight against imposition of these hegemonies isn't an abstract statement: it's a imperative of life and dignity. It's defend space of our future greatness"
Ciro clearly said that he don't want to have Brazil as pawn in the game of great powers.
And another reason of Brazil's relative neutrality is dependency of Russian fertilizers. We import 99% of ammonium nitrate from Russia and 48% of potassium comes from Russia and Belarus. And Bolsonaro's main base of support in economics is agrobusiness.