Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Exame Idea Poll November 11, 2021
Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 7%, Sergio Moro 5%
Runoff: Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

All the polls show similar results.
The polls related to Bolsonaro's job approval are similar too.
Nowadays, they usually show Good/Very Good~25%, Regular~20%, Bad/Very Bad ~55%

There are some differences in the polls related to subgroups: region, age, instruction, income

[buritobr]

We saw in the media this week that Geraldo Alckmin can be Lula's running mate in 2022. The goal of this ticket would be showing that Lula is not the candidate of the left but the candidate of a broad anti-Bolsonaro front.
Geraldo Alckmin was the opponent of Lula in the runoff in 2006.

It would be as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate against Trump in 2020.

[Red Velvet]

Now with Moro and Bolsonaro joining or about to join a party, it looks like we at least finally know which ones will probably on the run, at least the main ones.

Only thing yet to be determined is who will be the PSDB candidate.

Lula - PT (Workers Party). Number: 13
Bolsonaro - PL (Liberal Party). Number: 22
Ciro Gomes - PDT (Democratic Labour Party). Number: 12
Sérgio Moro - PODEMOS (We Can). Number: 44
Eduardo Leite or João Doria - PSDB (Brazilian Social-Democratic Party). Number: 45

More interesting to see will be the alliances. REPUBLICANOS, PP and UNIÃO (fusion between DEM + PSL) will probably form a coallition with Bolsonaro’s PL since they’re the most liberal and/or conservative parties from centrão.

Besides those, there’s also NOVO which could likely support Bolsonaro as well if they don’t run their own candidate, considering they have at this point moved from being this Liberal-Libertarian kind of party for entrepreneurs and such to more of a Bolsonarist-friendly type of party.

Meanwhile, I imagine most of the left (except PDT, maybe REDE too) will just get behind Lula since he’s the favorite to win. I can see PCdoB (as usual) but this time also PSOL and PSB forming a coalition with PT. Hell, PT could very well get the support of many centrist opportunist parties as well, like in the 00s. Maybe even MDB eventually (Michel Temer’s party) or PSD?

Everyone else will have much harder time. PODEMOS is centrão-like type of party but Sergio Moro is hated by most politicians while also being currently unpopular among society. It’s hard for me to imagine who would form coallition with them, maybe PSC like in 2018, idk.

Ciro in PDT at most will just get something like AVANTE again, maybe CIDADANIA too. Although idk what REDE would do now since I don’t think Marina would run again. REDE could get behind him too, if they don’t support Lula.

Then PSDB I have no freaking idea lol. They had large coallition in 2018 but that was mostly the right-wing parties I mentioned here likely to support Bolsonaro or that accommodated him (PL, PP, DEM) or opportunist centrist parties like PSD or SOLIDARIEDADE that could very well support Lula in 2022 since he’s the favorite. I think they will definitely get the support of some minor ones, like Ciro probably also will, but it will probably the most reduced coallition from them in a presidential election that I’ve seen in a long time.

That of course, is related to PSDB losing the protagonism they had in politics until 2014. Polarization logic was between PT vs PSDB and now it looks like to be PT vs Bolsonaro with the surge of this new right. They still had big coallition in 2018 because no one expected Bolsonaro to win or have realistic chances early on and just thought PSDB would finally have their big victory over PT after four consecutive losses. It won’t be the same thing in 2022, with Bolsonaro and now also Moro occupying a big part of the space it was theirs.

[Red Velvet]

So, Moro filiation with PODEMOS (We Can) already took place.

But Bolsonaro filiation to PL, scheduled to happen in an event today, was suspended in the last minute. Apparently there are some internal disagreements. PL has a compromise to support the João Doria appointed candidate for Governor of São Paulo, Rodrigo Garcia. Doria and Bolsonaro don’t get along, so Bolsonaro was pushing for the party abandon their support of Garcia to governor of São Paulo. Which made the party temporarily suspend his filiation without a new date to happen.

Bolsonaro really has Midas touch on reverse, everything he touches turns into sh**t. Joining PSL (Social Liberal Party) led to an internal party conflict; his attempt to create his own part ApB (Alliance for Brazil) didn’t get enough signatures in time; filiation to PATRIOTAS (Patriot party) failed and now the filiation to PL (Liberal Party) could go the same way.

To run for elections in Brazil, you must be a member of a political party, there’s no such thing as running as an independent. In order for Bolsonaro to run for the 2022 elections, he is obligated to join a party, any party, until the end of March 2022 or else he won’t be able to run.

I’m sure he’ll get into one eventually even if it’s in the last minute. There are tons of minor irrelevant parties that would love to have a “big name” running for them in order to increase their name awareness and also increase their votes for congress, resulting in larger number of seats (and consequentially reserve their right to more campaign money). There were talks of Bolsonaro potentially joining the PMB (Party of the Brazilian Woman) for example. But I think if PL filiation doesn’t work out, he’s more likely to simply join his old party PP (Progressive Party) or maybe REPUBLICANOS (Republicans).

[Red Velvet]

Also, rumors say that what Moro really wants is a senate run, although the buzz is for the presidency. Makes a lot of sense, as he has way too much rejection from both the left (authoritarian who jailed Lula) and right (traitor who backstabbed Bolsonaro) for a national presidential campaign.

Senate is a much more likely win for him, has 8 year duration, 2 months vacation per year and still allows him to have a bunch of advisors at his disposal. Sounds like a no-brainer, if I were an opportunist like him.

If Moro really goes for the senate and Bolsonaro somehow doesn’t join a party (very unlikely), that would be PSDB dreams of open field in the right and would likely mean a reserved spot in a runoff against PT just like in the not so distant past. That is, IF Lula doesn’t simply win outright the election on 1st round, of course.

[buritobr]

First poll after Sergio Moro became a member of the party Podemos and the media spent hours talking about him
PonteioPolítica November 16-18

Scenario 1: Lula 37%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 11%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Joao Doria 3%, others 3%, blank/nulified 10%, didn't answer 5%

Scenario 2: Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Sergio Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Eduardo Leite 2%, others 4%, blank/nulified 8%, didn't answer 5%

Runoff
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 45%, Sergio Moro 31%

[Mike88]

Curious to see what will be the outcome of the PSDB primaries on Sunday. Earlier, Leite seemed to be closing in on Doria, but do you guys think he will make it? Or has Doria been able to stop the bleeding?

[Red Velvet]

Curious to see what will be the outcome of the PSDB primaries on Sunday. Earlier, Leite seemed to be closing in on Doria, but do you guys think he will make it? Or has Doria been able to stop the bleeding?

There was a story that came out saying Leite tried to attend a request from Bolsonaro to ask Doria to delay the vaccination more, so that a federal vaccination program was established before. And Leite, instead of denying this story, confirmed as if it was something he was proud of. He probably also didn’t want Doria to get the political credits of the person “who started vaccination in Brazil”.

That didn’t sit well with many people. Doria isn’t popular but his efforts to start vaccination are, considering how Bolsonaro actually tried to delay it (having ignored ELEVEN proposals from Pfizer offering a deal). Brazil has only recently passed countries like USA in fully vaccinated, we have 77% partially vaccinated and 60,9% fully vaccinated according to Reuters, but that should have happened much earlier if we had gotten early access to a big number of vaccines. Brazil has a more pro-vaccination society than many of these countries and a more efficient immunization healthcare system.

Vaccination started in January thanks to Doria efforts of bringing SinoVac to Brazil. But even then, the numbers of vaccines arriving here was limited, so the vaccination process started slow in comparison of what should have been. Only after May or June a larger amount of vaccines started arriving and the vaccination process fastened really quick. If Bolsonaro bought the vaccines early in 2020 instead of actively ignoring offers, we would have started vaccinating in a larger scale in January already and the 2nd wave of deaths that happened in 2021 wouldn’t be as severe.

So it’s not a good look for Eduardo Leite at all, that he tried to help Bolsonaro delay vaccination even more. Idk what will happen, I think PSDB has strong anti-Doria factions (the existence of this primary is probably to make his nomination more complicated) and Leite more political support overall with Party leaderships in a national scale but these news were terrible for Leite. Will be easier for the left to push a narrative he’s just “gay Bolsonaro” if he’s the PSDB nominee. Doria allied himself with Bolsonaro in 2018 (everyone in the right did tbh) through the BolsoDoria campaign but his very public fights against Bolsonaro in regards COVID measures and vaccination were able to disassociate his image from his in the public imaginary.

[buritobr]

Curious to see what will be the outcome of the PSDB primaries on Sunday. Earlier, Leite seemed to be closing in on Doria, but do you guys think he will make it? Or has Doria been able to stop the bleeding?

Eduardo Leite is the favorite because he has the support of almost all the PSDB leaders outside São Paulo. Even though, João Doria is endorsed by the 2 living PSDB founding fathers: Fernando Henrique Cardoso and José Serra.
Most of the PSDB prefer Eduardo Leite because João Doria criticism on Jair Bolsonaro was to harsh and the PSDB will look for right-wing voters, the voters who could choose Bolsonaro. João Doria is punished for being correct. João Doria used to be hated by the left until 2019. Now, he is more respected by the left than Eduardo Leite. But since the left won't vote for neither Doria nor Leite, most of the PSDB will probably choose the leader who is a best fit for the right.
But if Sergio Moro runs for president, probably any PSDB candidate won't go to the runoff. Probably, PSDB will try to convince Sergio Moro to run for the Senate.

[Red Velvet]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

[Mike88]

Well, Moro, from what I've read, is definitely going to run, so like buritobr said, the PSDB is toasted. However, correct if I'm wrong, but what's the possibility of some kind of a unity candidacy in the anti-Bolsonaro center-right area? A PSDB-União Brasil-PSD alliance, maybe with Moro even in it, and with the possiblity of Leite or Doria as VP?

[Mike88]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

From what I'm aware, privatizing Petrobras now would be a disaster. The company has massive debts and massive mismanagement, so no sane private investor would accept this amount of debt without any kind of government responsibility. And the Brazilian state doesn't have enough money to give any assurance to private investors, so a privatization of the company in this state, would be a disaster for the country's public accounts. Banco do Brasil, I believe, is similar to my country's Caixa Geral de Depósitos, a public bank but with some private investors. However, here there's a constant discussion about a possible privatization because Caixa acts just like any other private bank, not sure what's the Banco do Brasil actions.

[Red Velvet]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

Brazil (or Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or even China) is not US or UK in their international economic stand, so yeah. Extremely cray cray to think Brazil is like those countries.

Even in a rich country like France, the liberalization process is something that happened with extremely ACTIVE State participation in order to protect national sovereignty on the oil production. Not that this discussion is something conservatives care much about, as they’re completely incompetent in dealing with the economy other than in a simple cash flow way that only thinks about a short term period strategy (or even none at all, as Mike pointed out).

[Red Velvet]

Well, Moro, from what I've read, is definitely going to run, so like buritobr said, the PSDB is toasted. However, correct if I'm wrong, but what's the possibility of some kind of a unity candidacy in the anti-Bolsonaro center-right area? A PSDB-União Brasil-PSD alliance, maybe with Moro even in it, and with the possiblity of Leite or Doria as VP?

Not going to happen. What could happen is maybe Moro deciding he wants to go for senate in the last minute, leaving PSDB be the “center-right protagonists”.

But I wouldn’t put much hope into PSDB tbh. They’re kind of done. Moro would have more success than them. PSDB completely destroyed their identity as a party continuously since Aécio’s run in 2014. Populists like Bolsonaro / Moro are the new face of the right and are here to stay over them.

Even if Moro doesn’t run, it’s hard for me to picture PSDB getting double digits in the vote. Polls WITH Moro show PSDB getting around 2%-3% in the presidential vote, while polls WITHOUT Moro show PSDB getting around 5%-6% of the vote. Not really much of a bump, even if means they double their little vote intention.

PSDB OR Moro are only going to have a chance if the Bolsonaro base melts significantly and goes back to them. Otherwise, they don’t stand a chance, even if they were to “unite”.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

From what I'm aware, privatizing Petrobras now would be a disaster. The company has massive debts and massive mismanagement, so no sane private investor would accept this amount of debt without any kind of government responsibility. And the Brazilian state doesn't have enough money to give any assurance to private investors, so a privatization of the company in this state, would be a disaster for the country's public accounts. Banco do Brasil, I believe, is similar to my country's Caixa Geral de Depósitos, a public bank but with some private investors. However, here there's a constant discussion about a possible privatization because Caixa acts just like any other private bank, not sure what's the Banco do Brasil actions.

I'm commenting less on Petrobas specifically, but while you're right that the company does have major debts, there are models that get around that (ie, assuming some portion of the debt and selling the remainder, etc..). But the bigger point is that the assumption that only a crazy right winger could support privatization is wrong.

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

Brazil (or Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or even China) is not US or UK in their international economic stand, so yeah. Extremely cray cray to think Brazil is like those countries.

Even in a rich country like France, the liberalization process is something that happened with extremely ACTIVE State participation in order to protect national sovereignty on the oil production. Not that this discussion is something conservatives care much about, as they’re completely incompetent in dealing with the economy other than in a simple cash flow way that only thinks about a short term period strategy (or even none at all, as Mike pointed out).

Right, and every one of those countries has dealt with major problems from state owned companies (PEMEX oil spills, PEMEX losses, Aramco profits falling, Gazprom corruption, Iran inefficiency, France slow growth + stagnation), and 2/5 of China's top oil companies are private. Having a private oil or banking supply by no means means that national security is at stake: Norway, Canada, the US, and more have all balanced the two, nor does it mean one is only thinking of short term interests (the US has never had a state run banking system, and neither has the UK).

[Red Velvet]

Right, and every one of those countries has dealt with major problems from state owned companies (PEMEX oil spills, PEMEX losses, Aramco profits falling, Gazprom corruption, Iran inefficiency, France slow growth + stagnation), and 2/5 of China's top oil companies are private. Having a private oil or banking supply by no means means that national security is at stake: Norway, Canada, the US, and more have all balanced the two, nor does it mean one is only thinking of short term interests (the US has never had a state run banking system, and neither has the UK).

There are multiple private banks here and Banco do Brasil is mixed-economy. Each company has their own different and complementing purpose that coexist with each other. Each has their own niche. Only ideologues tend to defend stuff like “nationalize/privatize everything”.

The private banks like Bradesco, Santander and Itaú Unibanco attend and dispute the richest segments of the population, who are very well attended by these banks.

Then you have a mixed-economy bank like Banco do Brasil and also a State bank like Caixa that can attend better the national interests of the population. Private banks aren’t interested in doing housing financing for those who are in the lowest income brackets for obvious reasons just to give one very simple example. There are other multiple interests in not having ONLY private banks available.

The five biggest banks in Brazil (three private, one mixed-economy and one fully state-owned) coexist and attend the different needs of the population and the country pretty well. There’s no vision of future (of combined economic AND social relevance) that justifies any change.

[buritobr]

The PSDB primaries failed, due to problems in the app which was used to vote.

The PSDB primaries will take place next Sunday or in 2022.

[Red Velvet]

PSDB is a joke lmaaao

They wanted to save money in the development of the app, even HERE they can’t help themselves but be a bunch of lousy cheapskates.

[Mike88]

The PSDB primaries failed, due to problems in the app which was used to vote.

The PSDB primaries will take place next Sunday or in 2022.

Hahahaha. Like Red Velvet said, what a joke of a party. But seriously, PSDB should just merge with DEM or something. If they cannot even manage a simple primary, then I don't what can they manage.

[buritobr]

The PSDB primaries failed, due to problems in the app which was used to vote.

The PSDB primaries will take place next Sunday or in 2022.

Hahahaha. Like Red Velvet said, what a joke of a party. But seriously, PSDB should just merge with DEM or something. If they cannot even manage a simple primary, then I don't what can they manage.

PSDB was one of the 2 major parties between 1994 and 2014. Now, its relevance is declining because there are other forces in the right-wing of the political spectrum: Podemos, União Brasil, Partido Liberal, Progressistas. Even if Bolsonaro doesn't run, Sergio Moro, in the Podemos, can be the major candidate of the right, instead of the PSDB.
However, the failure of the app in the primary is not an important issue. Nobody will remember this event in October 2022. In February 2020, the democratic primary in Iowa was a mess. We discussed in this Forum if Trump would be benefited. In October 2020, I posted in this Forum a question about if anyone remebered Iowa.
The PSDB primary for the mayor of São Paulo in 2016 was a mess. Even though, João Doria was elected in the first round.

[rones358]

Recent polls have shown Sergio Moro consolidating that third position, surpassing Ciro Gomes. I think he has the most room to grow.

[Red Velvet]

Recent polls have shown Sergio Moro consolidating that third position, surpassing Ciro Gomes. I think he has the most room to grow.

High rejection rate, but media is desperate to make him happen. He’s not a real politician either, not a good speaker so the campaign will be a problem.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Modalmais/Futura poll:

Size 2,000

1st scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 38,6%
Bolsonaro (no party) 32,4%
Moro (We Can) 11,9%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 6,2%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 1,8%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,4%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided: 3,6%
Blank/null: 4%

2nd scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 37%
Bolsonaro (no party) 30,8%
Moro (We Can) 13,6%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 7,5%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 2,1%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,9%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided: 3%
Blank/null: 4,1%

3rd scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,3%
Bolsonaro (no party) 32%
Moro (We Can) 16%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 2,5%
Don’t know/don’t answer/ Undecided 3%

4th scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,6%
Bolsonaro (no party) 31,7%
Moro (We Can) 16,3%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/Undecided 3,9%
Blank/null 4,2%

5th scenario

Moro (We Can) 26,9%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 20,1%
Haddad (Worker’s Party) 16,6%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 3,9%
Blank/null 28,3%

6th scenario

Moro (We Can) 29,1%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 19,4%
Haddad (Worker’s Party) 18,3%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 3,1%
Blank/null 26,8%

7th scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 43,4%
Bolsonaro 32,7%
Moro 17,4%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 1,9%
Blank/null 4,7%

2nd round

Lula 49,2% vs. Bolsonaro 38,4%

Ciro 39,9% vs. Bolsonaro 40,9%

Moro 38,8% vs. Bolsonaro 35,7%

Lula 46,6% vs. Moro 33,6%

Ciro 31,2% vs. Moro 38,2%

[buritobr]

It looks like that Sergio Moro is more willing to receive the support of the $ and the corporate media than the PSDB candidate