Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

The city of Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of the city of São Paulo in the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014.
The city of São Paulo voted on the left of the city of Rio de Janeiro in the presidential eletions of 2018, 2022.

These videos, not updated for 2022 yet, showed how these cities voted for president from 1989 to 2018
São Paulo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=25s
Rio de Janeiro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

I can't compare the elections of 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960 because I have data only for the states, not for each municipality. I know the results in the city of Rio de Janeiro because Rio de Janeiro was a city state. I don't know the results in the city of São Paulo, I know the results in the state of São Paulo.

1945: Eurico Gaspar Dutra (moderate right) won in the state of São Paulo, brigadeiro Eduardo Gomes (very right) won in the city of Rio de Janeiro. But it's not easy to say that Rio voted on the right. Dutra performed bad in the city because the communist candidate Yedo Fiúza performed well. There was no runoff.

1950: Getúlio Vargas (center-left) won a landslide both in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. His running mate Café Filho won the election for vice president.

1955: While Juscelino Kubitschek (center-left) won the presidential election, Adhemar de Barros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, Milton Campos (right) defeated the leftist João Goulart in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro, but João Goulart won.

1960: Jânio Quadros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, the results of 1955 were repeated.

Rio de Janeiro was a left-wing city in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, but neither in the mid and late 1950s nor in the 2010s and 2020s.

Before 2018, Rio de Janeiro voted on the right of São Paulo sometimes in offices other than president.

[buritobr]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

Bolsonaro won the whites, Lula won the blacks, but the gap is not like the one in the US. There is the racial divide in Brazil due to the income divide.

[mileslunn]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

Bolsonaro won the whites, Lula won the blacks, but the gap is not like the one in the US. There is the racial divide in Brazil due to the income divide.

What would have Bolsonaro received amongst Blacks approximately?

[AussieB]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

Bolsonaro won the whites, Lula won the blacks, but the gap is not like the one in the US. There is the racial divide in Brazil due to the income divide.

What would have Bolsonaro received amongst Blacks approximately?

Probably around 30% among Black Brazilians, 40% or morę among Mixed people

[RicardoCampos]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

In addition, Japanese descendants are more conservative and socially rigid by Brazilian standards. It is often a reason to vote for the right.

[buritobr]

In his short speech, Bolsonaro didn't mention the name Lula and didn't send a clear message for the truck drivers to go home

[RicardoCampos]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

There are no exact figures on Brazilian electoral demography. Studies typically overlay demographics with polling locations to paint a picture.

You can look at the electoral polls, but not forgetting that the majority made serious mistakes, not so much in the second round, but they were still discredited.

Based on these electoral polls and how close the results of the 2 candidates were, the following can be considered:

It depends on your concept of black.
If black = totally black: Lula won
If black = black + multiracial: it was practically tied

Remembering that it can also vary in relation to gender: most people consider that Lula won among multiracial women and lost among multiracial men.

The latest electoral polls showed that Lula was winning among the blacks (totally black), losing among the multiracials by a small margin and losing among the whites by a large margin.

In fact, according to electoral polls and separating into population segments, Lula only won among blacks (totally blacks), women, Catholics and minor religions, the poor with up to 1 minimum wage ($235.62*), younger age group and the Northeast region.


* only dollar conversion, it does not mean purchasing power, it is still the poorest range

[RicardoCampos]

The city of Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of the city of São Paulo in the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014.
The city of São Paulo voted on the left of the city of Rio de Janeiro in the presidential eletions of 2018, 2022.

These videos, not updated for 2022 yet, showed how these cities voted for president from 1989 to 2018
São Paulo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=25s
Rio de Janeiro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

I can't compare the elections of 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960 because I have data only for the states, not for each municipality. I know the results in the city of Rio de Janeiro because Rio de Janeiro was a city state. I don't know the results in the city of São Paulo, I know the results in the state of São Paulo.

1945: Eurico Gaspar Dutra (moderate right) won in the state of São Paulo, brigadeiro Eduardo Gomes (very right) won in the city of Rio de Janeiro. But it's not easy to say that Rio voted on the right. Dutra performed bad in the city because the communist candidate Yedo Fiúza performed well. There was no runoff.

1950: Getúlio Vargas (center-left) won a landslide both in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. His running mate Café Filho won the election for vice president.

1955: While Juscelino Kubitschek (center-left) won the presidential election, Adhemar de Barros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, Milton Campos (right) defeated the leftist João Goulart in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro, but João Goulart won.

1960: Jânio Quadros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, the results of 1955 were repeated.

Rio de Janeiro was a left-wing city in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, but neither in the mid and late 1950s nor in the 2010s and 2020s.

Before 2018, Rio de Janeiro voted on the right of São Paulo sometimes in offices other than president.

Impressive, Lula could not beat Serra in the middle class of SP not even in 2002

[ottermax]

The demographic differences between the USA and Brazil are fascinating, but perhaps not that surprising.

Japanese-Americans are staunchly Democratic, but they also fit very well into the new Democratic base as college-educated urban voters for the most part. It is a bit surprising that Brazil would have a group like Japanese-Brazilians vote so strongly to the Right, but maybe Japanese-Brazilians don't belong in the "educated Bohemian elite" in the same way as Japanese-Americans? Or maybe its simply a matter of Brazil having much stronger racial integration than America - the history of Japanese-Americans is grounded in internment, unions especially in places like Hawaii, and education-dependent professions like law and medicine.

[ottermax]

I'm sure this has been explained many times here but is there a reason that the biggest states with metropolitan centers like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, or even Brasilia vote quite right of the country? I feel like their equivalents in the US (CA, NY, DC) are core to the Democratic Party...

Likewise, how has PT held up in the NE? Is this simply a matter of class based politics remaining as the main dividing line? I'm just surprised that a "fascist" president would get so much support from the "educated elite" sections of the country - but maybe I just don't understand the inhabitants of Southern Brazil.

by coincidence, I answered exactly that in post 1897

looks like i was unknowingly replying to a troll LOL so if i had read your post before i would have replied directly to you

read because it has a very complete description

Thank you the description was very helpful. I think I overestimated the number of Brazilians who have college educational attainment and assumed it would be similar to the US. But it makes sense that the suburbs just wouldn't have an equivalent of some of the American ones because Brazil just has a different demographic profile overall.

Sao Paulo (state) reminds me of Georgia and Rio de Janeiro reminds me of New Jersey, Long Island, or Orange County, CA of all places (mostly because of the conservative exurbs along the coast)

[omar04]

The city of Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of the city of São Paulo in the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014.
The city of São Paulo voted on the left of the city of Rio de Janeiro in the presidential eletions of 2018, 2022.

These videos, not updated for 2022 yet, showed how these cities voted for president from 1989 to 2018
São Paulo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=25s
Rio de Janeiro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

I can't compare the elections of 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960 because I have data only for the states, not for each municipality. I know the results in the city of Rio de Janeiro because Rio de Janeiro was a city state. I don't know the results in the city of São Paulo, I know the results in the state of São Paulo.

1945: Eurico Gaspar Dutra (moderate right) won in the state of São Paulo, brigadeiro Eduardo Gomes (very right) won in the city of Rio de Janeiro. But it's not easy to say that Rio voted on the right. Dutra performed bad in the city because the communist candidate Yedo Fiúza performed well. There was no runoff.

1950: Getúlio Vargas (center-left) won a landslide both in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. His running mate Café Filho won the election for vice president.

1955: While Juscelino Kubitschek (center-left) won the presidential election, Adhemar de Barros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, Milton Campos (right) defeated the leftist João Goulart in the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro, but João Goulart won.

1960: Jânio Quadros (right) won both the state of São Paulo and city of Rio de Janeiro. For vice president, the results of 1955 were repeated.

Rio de Janeiro was a left-wing city in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, but neither in the mid and late 1950s nor in the 2010s and 2020s.

Before 2018, Rio de Janeiro voted on the right of São Paulo sometimes in offices other than president.

for the recent gubernatorial election in São Paulo, wasn't Haddad considered a poor candidate?

[RicardoCampos]

The demographic differences between the USA and Brazil are fascinating, but perhaps not that surprising.

Japanese-Americans are staunchly Democratic, but they also fit very well into the new Democratic base as college-educated urban voters for the most part. It is a bit surprising that Brazil would have a group like Japanese-Brazilians vote so strongly to the Right, but maybe Japanese-Brazilians don't belong in the "educated Bohemian elite" in the same way as Japanese-Americans? Or maybe its simply a matter of Brazil having much stronger racial integration than America - the history of Japanese-Americans is grounded in internment, unions especially in places like Hawaii, and education-dependent professions like law and medicine.

"vote so strongly to the Right, but maybe Japanese-Brazilians don't belong in the "educated Bohemian elite" in the same way as Japanese-Americans?"

As it is common for Americans to be confused about the demographics of Brazil, I will redo the post I made yesterday, but now more summarized and optimized:


The vote and the class in brazil:

The right-wing vote in Brazil is not a matter of the urban/educated population. It's a matter of class.

The richest in Brazil vote for the right because they are more neo-liberal, they want a minimal state, low taxes and everything that will keep their resources.

The poorest in Brazil vote for the left because of social programs and because they see more conditions to obtain the most diverse socio-economic benefits possible.

When the poor sometimes vote for the right, it is usually for reasons of conservatism/religion/customs agenda/public safety (weak point of the left).

When the rich sometimes vote for the left, it is because of extreme hopelessness in the prevailing politicians on the right, as in the case of Bolsonaro or in the post-dictatorship period.

The vote and the geography in brazil:

In Brazil, a suburb is a poor place, the outskirts of the city.

Most large Brazilian cities tend to have a historic and somewhat undervalued downtown area, surrounded by wealthy and middle-class neighborhoods, which in turn are surrounded by a poor peripheral area.

The poorest areas are the outskirts of large and medium-sized cities. Thus, the left may have more votes in these metropolitan areas, but for reasons different from the United States.

In the South, Southeast and Center-West regions, the interior is not necessarily poorer, many of these small towns are industrial or with strong agribusiness, safe and with quality of life. These areas tend to vote right.

Considering that big and medium cities have rich and poor and small cities can also have this relationship, in the end the rural/urban relationship can be equivalent.

In the North and Northeast it is the opposite, the most isolated areas are the poorest, especially in the Northeast. It is in these places that Lula has a truckload of votes. While the capitals, are seen as more right-wing, because they have rich and poor.


About the japanese:

Returning to the issue of Japanese Brazilians. They do belong to the Brazilian educated elite and that is also why they usually vote for the right. With the above explanation I think it is clear.

In fact, Japanese Brazilians belong so strongly to the educated elite that there was a joke at the best Brazilian university that they were planning to create quotas for non-Japanese. It's just a joke, I love Japan.


Oh, and one more thing. I'm also surprised by the American demographics. I cannot understand how the poorly educated poor vote for the right. In other words, it is the left that will give them more conditions to obtain better education and, therefore, income. But that's a discussion for another topic.

[mileslunn]

Actually Brazil makes some sense as there was a time in West, particularly in Europe, somewhat less so in US where voting was largely along income lines.  Wealthy generally voted for parties on right, poor for parties on left.  Its more recently that has disappeared.  Also poverty in Latin America is way worse than anything in North America or Europe.

I think what stumps a lot is when North America and Europe voted along income lines, right was more your traditional low tax, smaller government type, not your right wing populist or culturally conservative like you see today.  As right drifted more into latter, then many wealthy abandoned right, but in exchange they gained more working class.  Despite Bolsonaro fitting latter more than former, it seems voting is still more like it was in North America and Europe 40-50 years ago as opposed today.  Ditto urban/rural split.  Urban/rural split is largely a 21st century phenomenon and for most of 20th century lots of urban areas voted for parties on right and many rural voted for parties on left. 

[Red Velvet]

The urban upper classes only prefers the left in Rio, which is a new particularity for the city only because that got shaped due to PSOL (a party more focused on social and identity issues than working class economic ones) becoming the main leftist force in that city. PT became very weak in Rio, a place it was once one of its main strongholds in the past.

In other places it’s PT or other parties that drive the left. Even places where PSOL is getting stronger, like São Paulo, PT still remains a bigger force and what people associate the left with.

In Rio, “left” is associated more to university students and educated people more than it is with the poorer working class. But in the entire rest of the country, that logic doesn’t hold and class lines are more of an important factor.

[RicardoCampos]

The urban upper classes only prefers the left in Rio, which is a new particularity for the city only because that got shaped due to PSOL (a party more focused on social and identity issues than working class economic ones) becoming the main leftist force in that city. PT became very weak in Rio, a place it was once one of its main strongholds in the past.

In other places it’s PT or other parties that drive the left. Even places where PSOL is getting stronger, like São Paulo, PT still remains a bigger force and what people associate the left with.

In Rio, “left” is associated more to university students and educated people more than it is with the poorer working class. But in the entire rest of the country, that logic doesn’t hold and class lines are more of an important factor.

Rio de Janeiro is related in that paragraph:

"When the poor sometimes vote for the right, it is usually for reasons of conservatism/religion/customs agenda/public safety (weak point of the left)."


Mainly in evangelicals and the difficulty of the left with the problems of urban violence.

[Pres Mike]

Why did Bolsonaro wait 44 hours to issue a statement? I suspect he was exploring all his options, like a coup

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why did Bolsonaro wait 44 hours to issue a statement? I suspect he was exploring all his options, like a coup

I think the available evidence suggests he's just sulking in his room like a child.

If there was a coup in the works, we would see certain signs that we're just not seeing right now. Apparently his administration is already preparing to work with Lula on the transition.

[ottermax]

The urban upper classes only prefers the left in Rio, which is a new particularity for the city only because that got shaped due to PSOL (a party more focused on social and identity issues than working class economic ones) becoming the main leftist force in that city. PT became very weak in Rio, a place it was once one of its main strongholds in the past.

In other places it’s PT or other parties that drive the left. Even places where PSOL is getting stronger, like São Paulo, PT still remains a bigger force and what people associate the left with.

In Rio, “left” is associated more to university students and educated people more than it is with the poorer working class. But in the entire rest of the country, that logic doesn’t hold and class lines are more of an important factor.

Rio de Janeiro is related in that paragraph:

"When the poor sometimes vote for the right, it is usually for reasons of conservatism/religion/customs agenda/public safety (weak point of the left)."


Mainly in evangelicals and the difficulty of the left with the problems of urban violence.

So is Rio the only area of Brazil that seems to mimic American voting patterns (or is maybe going fastest towards those patterns)?

[RicardoCampos]

The urban upper classes only prefers the left in Rio, which is a new particularity for the city only because that got shaped due to PSOL (a party more focused on social and identity issues than working class economic ones) becoming the main leftist force in that city. PT became very weak in Rio, a place it was once one of its main strongholds in the past.

In other places it’s PT or other parties that drive the left. Even places where PSOL is getting stronger, like São Paulo, PT still remains a bigger force and what people associate the left with.

In Rio, “left” is associated more to university students and educated people more than it is with the poorer working class. But in the entire rest of the country, that logic doesn’t hold and class lines are more of an important factor.

Rio de Janeiro is related in that paragraph:

"When the poor sometimes vote for the right, it is usually for reasons of conservatism/religion/customs agenda/public safety (weak point of the left)."


Mainly in evangelicals and the difficulty of the left with the problems of urban violence.

So is Rio the only area of Brazil that seems to mimic American voting patterns (or is maybe going fastest towards those patterns)?

I particularly still have doubts if the case of Rio de Janeiro has to do with education. I believe that if a rightist politician appears with a beautiful speech, the middle class of Rio de Janeiro will buy it.

I also have doubts about micro-demography: do the favelas in the south zone vote for the right or the left? And does the Bolsonarist north zone have middle-class areas with better education? This is not clear from the electoral maps. I have no knowledge about the city of Rio, some native could speak better.

It is probably the most expressive place in Brazil where this logic happens, for whatever reasons. But it is impossible to know all the places in Brazil, it is a huge and very diverse country.

[RicardoCampos]

Bolsonaro is increasingly isolated. Now evangelicals are asking him to recognize Lula's victory.

Silas Malafaia, one of the greatest evangelical leaders in the country:

"Bolsonaro did not prove fraud".
With criticism of Supreme Court ministers, Pastor Silas Malafaia asked today that supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro suspend the road blocks, carried out since Sunday (30) in a demonstration against the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Silva.
"Protesting is a right. What is left for the Brazilian people? Let's stop, let's finish and get back to work. That's what we need", he said.
Malafaia asks for an end to acts against Lula (I couldn't find a link in English)

Evangelicals do not like transgressions. They did not support Bolsonaro in anything that goes against the order. Bolsonaro will only be left with the extremist hard core if he continues in this direction...

[buritobr]

Yes, there are some favelas in the districts of the South Zone in Rio de Janeiro. They push the results of the districts slightly to the left, but not so much, since their % in the population isn't big. The population of the favelas of Babilônia, Cantagalo and Pavão-Pavãozinho are ~8% of the total population of the districts of Copacana+Leme. The favelas are not the cause of the upper/middle class districts in the South Zone vote for Freixo in 2016, 2022 and for Lula in 2022. Most of the upper/middle class people in these districts voted for Freixo and Lula.
There are some middle class districts in the North Zone: Tijuca, Maracanã, Méier. Freixo and Lula won these districts, which are seen as an extension of the South Zone.
The districts in the North Zone carried by Crivela in 2016, Witzel and Bolsonaro in 2018, Claudio Castro and Bolsonaro in 2022 are the low income districts which are not favelas. Some examples: Irajá, Pavuna

[buritobr]

In this tweet, we can see the results in Rio de Janeiro in more details than we can see in the electoral zones (ZEs) map https://twitter.com/gzanlorenssi/status/1585623165111181318

[buritobr]

Other city in which the polarization isn't the classic income polarization is Brasília. Lula had a narrow in the middle class district of the "Northern Wing", in the planned part of the city, where many public sector employees live. Bolsonaro won by large margin in the periphery, where a large share of the population is evangelic.

In São Paulo, there used to be a classic income polarization, but in 2022 it was much more complicated. Lula won some electoral zones in the upper middle class center he lost in 2002.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Rocinha is one of the most left-wing parts of Rio and it's notorious favela. I'm under the impression that isn't particularly impoverished these days - frankly, seems like a great place to be a "bobo"? - but neither is it "middle class".

[RicardoCampos]

Rocinha is very poor even by Brazilian standards. I think it's in the South Zone, maybe that's why vote left.