Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[kaoras]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

In Latin America, Santiago has started consistently voting to the left of Chile as a whole and Petro overperformed in Bogota. On the other hand, Buenos Aires votes to the right of the country which is complicated by the fact that the city is a stronghold of anti-Peronism of both the right and the left, so non-Peronist left parties do pretty well there.

Santiago case is because the global #trendz have only gone in one direction. The upper middle clases and BoBo types have shifted left, but the poorer classes have not shifted right, and in fact seem to feel repulsed by the new populist right (because of the association with Pinochetism)

[RicardoCampos]

Brazil's Bolsonaro asks protesters to clear road blockades


intriguing in this news is that it says "video" and I'm still looking for

[RicardoCampos]

I haven't found anything in English yet

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I haven't found anything in English yet

To fellow English first-language speakers: turn on CC, auto-translate to English. If you do this then you can understand what he is saying well enough.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1587535088656449538?t=6zhxkjrRuwr1rjHEg6...
Jeremy Corbyn weighs in

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1587535088656449538?t=6zhxkjrRuwr1rjHEg6...
Jeremy Corbyn weighs in

It takes a houseplant to know one.

[Intell]

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1587535088656449538?t=6zhxkjrRuwr1rjHEg6...
Jeremy Corbyn weighs in

Corbyn is just wrong though, he did triangulate, like he did in 2002!. He literally had a cenre to centre-right presidential candidate of 2006 as his VP

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1587535088656449538?t=6zhxkjrRuwr1rjHEg6...
Jeremy Corbyn weighs in

Lmao

[President Johnson]

Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

[parochial boy]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

In Latin America, Santiago has started consistently voting to the left of Chile as a whole and Petro overperformed in Bogota. On the other hand, Buenos Aires votes to the right of the country which is complicated by the fact that the city is a stronghold of anti-Peronism of both the right and the left, so non-Peronist left parties do pretty well there.

Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

In Latin America, Santiago has started consistently voting to the left of Chile as a whole and Petro overperformed in Bogota. On the other hand, Buenos Aires votes to the right of the country which is complicated by the fact that the city is a stronghold of anti-Peronism of both the right and the left, so non-Peronist left parties do pretty well there.

Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

Ottawa is kind of similar, and arguably has a similar sort of pattern to Brasilia where the downtown ridings full of Federal workers vote left while the suburbs, exurbs and boonies are way to the right.

[2952-0-0]

Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

Yep, that was my intended comparison. The other purpose-built capital cities are, more exactly, strongholds of pro-establishment parties that support a robust state. While Washington DC itself might be a Democratic stronghold, Loudoun County might vote Republican if the choice was between Mitt Romney and AOC. To see Bolsonaro perform so well in Brasilia seems as incongruous as Trump winning DC, if we were ignorant about the local political landscape.

[Niemeyerite]

Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

I'm sure only Lula could've done this. Bolsonaro tried to buy the poorest' vote by giving them free money. Most of them voted for Lula anyway because they trust him. Wouldn't have happened to any other candidate. Bolsonaro would have managed to buy the election for him for sure, IMHO. Also, everyone has known Lula since they were born and even then Bolsonaro and his accomplics managed to make many Brazilians believe Lula was a dangerous communist that would take your home and make your family eat their dogs and cats. Lula couldn't be destroyed by a fake news campaign because they already tried to destroy him in multiple ways before, but any other would have perished. 50.8% may not look that impressive, but it is it you consider it all. You only get a Lula once in a century.

[2952-0-0]

Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

I'm sure only Lula could've done this. Bolsonaro tried to buy the poorest' vote by giving them free money. Most of them voted for Lula anyway because they trust him. Wouldn't have happened to any other candidate. Bolsonaro would have managed to buy the election for him for sure, IMHO. Also, everyone has known Lula since they were born and even then Bolsonaro and his accomplics managed to make many Brazilians believe Lula was a dangerous communist that would take your home and make your family eat their dogs and cats. Lula couldn't be destroyed by a fake news campaign because they already tried to destroy him in multiple ways before, but any other would have perished. 50.8% may not look that impressive, but it is it you consider it all. You only get a Lula once in a century.

Given that Lula had already been president for eight years and presided over an economic boom, how could the "Lula is a communist like Hugo Chavez" attack have gained any resonance at all?

[Red Velvet]

Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

I'm sure only Lula could've done this. Bolsonaro tried to buy the poorest' vote by giving them free money. Most of them voted for Lula anyway because they trust him. Wouldn't have happened to any other candidate. Bolsonaro would have managed to buy the election for him for sure, IMHO. Also, everyone has known Lula since they were born and even then Bolsonaro and his accomplics managed to make many Brazilians believe Lula was a dangerous communist that would take your home and make your family eat their dogs and cats. Lula couldn't be destroyed by a fake news campaign because they already tried to destroy him in multiple ways before, but any other would have perished. 50.8% may not look that impressive, but it is it you consider it all. You only get a Lula once in a century.

Given that Lula had already been president for eight years and presided over an economic boom, how could the "Lula is a communist like Hugo Chavez" attack have gained any resonance at all?

That’s what they’re saying, if it was another left-wing candidate, that lazy line would’ve sticked more easily. Because it was Lula, it did not outside the already converted radical Bolsonarists. It’s just something hardline conservatives will always say, look at the US people attacking freaking Joe Biden as a communist lol

[adma]

Ottawa is kind of similar, and arguably has a similar sort of pattern to Brasilia where the downtown ridings full of Federal workers vote left while the suburbs, exurbs and boonies are way to the right.

Not really *way* to the right, other than the outermost exurbs/boonies--sensible-middle that can park right of centre on occasion and according to circumstance is more like it.  They certainly aren't *Bolsonaro* right, unless you want to frame Pierre Poilievre in such terms.  (In fact, provincially speaking, Ottawa has generically and contrarily swung *away* from Doug Ford Tory populism relative to the rest of the province.  So the parallels are really more w/NOVA...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brasilia's big rightwards swing - it used to vote to the left of the country as a whole - makes sense considering the caste (there isn't a better word for it, so it will serve) issue that has become such an important feature of Brazilian voting patterns in recent decades. It also lacks working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree (a demo that continues to be quite loyal to Lula it seems) and middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities to find the reality of Bolsonaro in power less appealing than sticking it to the PT again. Not surprising that it wouldn't have many of the first, but the latter is intriguing and probably could do with some sort of explanation. But in the end it makes sense from one angle: it's a dreadful city, so it is right that it has dreadful politics.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities

I don't understand this, wouldn't civil servants be heavily overrepresented in that demographic ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities

I don't understand this, wouldn't civil servants be heavily overrepresented in that demographic ?

Quite! This is what seems peculiar and could do with an explanation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate how you can't find decent Paint-editable base maps anymore for some reason, but here's the best I could do with what I have to work with:



This is trend, so controlling for national swing.

Worth noting that while Nordeste moved significantly to the right this time around, that comes after two cycles of a pretty intense leftward trend. Especially impressive that in some states Haddad did better than Dilma'14 or Dilma'14 did better than Dilma'10 (or both in Paraíba's case!). So the Nordeste still came in strong for Lula. It also seems like it tends to trend toward the incumbent when there is one running, so the move toward Bolsonaro makes some amount of sense in this regard.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what exactly is happening to Amazonas: it's been trending right every election since 2010. I guess deforestation might be helping the right there, but even then isn't most deforestation happening in Pará, Mato Grosso and Rondônia? I'd be interested in an explanation there.

As already seen, Lula improved a lot in the South and Southeast. In São Paulo this seems to be a sustained gain, while elsewhere it's mostly a recovery from the PT's crash in the past few elections. The Rio trend in 2018 in particular was brutal and doesn't seem like something PT can easily recover from.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hate how you can't find decent Paint-editable base maps anymore for some reason, but here's the best I could do with what I have to work with:



This is trend, so controlling for national swing.

Worth noting that while Nordeste moved significantly to the right this time around, that comes after two cycles of a pretty intense leftward trend. Especially impressive that in some states Haddad did better than Dilma'14 or Dilma'14 did better than Dilma'10 (or both in Paraíba's case!). So the Nordeste still came in strong for Lula. It also seems like it tends to trend toward the incumbent when there is one running, so the move toward Bolsonaro makes some amount of sense in this regard.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what exactly is happening to Amazonas: it's been trending right every election since 2010. I guess deforestation might be helping the right there, but even then isn't most deforestation happening in Pará, Mato Grosso and Rondônia? I'd be interested in an explanation there.

As already seen, Lula improved a lot in the South and Southeast. In São Paulo this seems to be a sustained gain, while elsewhere it's mostly a recovery from the PT's crash in the past few elections. The Rio trend in 2018 in particular was brutal and doesn't seem like something PT can easily recover from.

I would suggest PatternMaker. It's a great program for making MS Paint-editable maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest PatternMaker. It's a great program for making MS Paint-editable maps.

Thanks, I'll keep your suggestion in mind! I do miss the days when MS Paint was all you needed to make beautiful election maps, though. It's still the case, if you can find a good base map, but those are becoming rarer for some reason.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would suggest PatternMaker. It's a great program for making MS Paint-editable maps.

Thanks, I'll keep your suggestion in mind! I do miss the days when MS Paint was all you needed to make beautiful election maps, though. It's still the case, if you can find a good base map, but those are becoming rarer for some reason.

No prob, man!
Patternmaker has been a lifesaver on numerous occasions for me.

[Aurelius]

I hate how you can't find decent Paint-editable base maps anymore for some reason, but here's the best I could do with what I have to work with:



This is trend, so controlling for national swing.

Worth noting that while Nordeste moved significantly to the right this time around, that comes after two cycles of a pretty intense leftward trend. Especially impressive that in some states Haddad did better than Dilma'14 or Dilma'14 did better than Dilma'10 (or both in Paraíba's case!). So the Nordeste still came in strong for Lula. It also seems like it tends to trend toward the incumbent when there is one running, so the move toward Bolsonaro makes some amount of sense in this regard.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what exactly is happening to Amazonas: it's been trending right every election since 2010. I guess deforestation might be helping the right there, but even then isn't most deforestation happening in Pará, Mato Grosso and Rondônia? I'd be interested in an explanation there.

As already seen, Lula improved a lot in the South and Southeast. In São Paulo this seems to be a sustained gain, while elsewhere it's mostly a recovery from the PT's crash in the past few elections. The Rio trend in 2018 in particular was brutal and doesn't seem like something PT can easily recover from.

Maybe this will help.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Blank_maps_by_country

Unfortunately, a lot of them are SVG. But there's lots of PNG in there too.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities

I don't understand this, wouldn't civil servants be heavily overrepresented in that demographic ?

Quite! This is what seems peculiar and could do with an explanation.

As I have been told, civil servants/public employees in Brazil are left-leaning and tend to have liberal sensibilities but, surprisingly, Brasilia isn't a monolithic hub of public employees and has assorted lobbying types plus a banking industry etc. Anecdotally, I do not have the sense that higher-ranking civil servants are particularly left-wing though, even if they are somewhat liberal, so they may have voted for Bolsonaro in 2018, even if they likely did not this year.