Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[RicardoCampos]

I wish I had done this review in the 1st week of the 2nd shift, so it doesn't seem like such an obvious prediction, but unfortunately I was out of time, but I'm going to do it now while there's still time.

Bolsonaro will win the election in Brazil for the following reasons:

• Allies 1: Bolsonaro has elected governors or favorites in the 2nd round in all states in the richest regions of Brazil, with several being reelected
• Allies 2: Bolsonaro has all the senators elected in the 2nd round in all the states of the richest regions of Brazil
• Aliaes 3: Bolsonaro's party elected huge benches in the federal chamber and state assemblies in all states of the richest regions of Brazil
• Allies 4: within this group of elected Bolsonarist governors / senators / federal and state deputies are the 3 most populous states in Brazil, a small variation in these states means millions of votes
• Allies 5: all these elected allies of Bolsonaro are encouraged to win votes in their respective states; Minas Gerais is a classic example, a swing state with the 2nd largest population in Brazil in which Lula won with just 5 points, at the same time with a re-elected governor and an elected senator, both Bolsonaro allies, who are mobilizing mayors and the entire its basis for reversing Bolsonaro's situation
• Evangelicals: predicted to surpass Catholics in the next decade, Brazilian evangelicals, especially neo-Pentecostals, are not just a religious unit of vows, they are engaged and have a huge influence in their communities, mostly poor regions, being able to turn votes in these traditionally Lulist regions; Pastors are also more engaged in the 2nd round, in some cases bullying church members who do not vote for Bolsonaro
• Conservatives and moderate Bolsonaro: there is a growing and undeniable conservative inclination in the population that accompanies the growth of evangelicals, this whole mass elected conservative politicians in a much greater proportion than the votes obtained by Bolsonaro; for example, a portion of moderate conservatives voted in the 1st round for a conservative governor but not for Bolsonaro, because of his rude speech; Knowing this, Bolsonaro's campaign tried to recreate his image, who now doesn't speak profanity anymore, appears with women and goes to churches every day, just waiting for these moderate conservatives thirsty for a palatable Bolsonaro to come to him.
• Lula weakened: the former president, 76 years old, is older and visibly gets exhausted much more easily than Bolsonaro, he appears in debates and interviews with a weakened appearance, hoarse voice and with cognitive difficulties, he does not look anything like the Lula that everyone knew, fears for his health and he is very similar to Biden; in the 2nd round this is more evident because of the more exhaustive campaign
• Time: if the 2nd round of the election were the day after the 1st round, Lula would easily win, but as it takes 4 weeks, time works in Bolsonaro's favor
• Reelection: every president in reelection campaign has a head start, resources and government propaganda
• Self-confident voters: Many people who were reluctant to vote for Bolsonaro in the 1st round have now come out of the closet to see his voting success and there are waves of cars and homes with Bolsonaro campaign symbols, much more than Lula
• Social "help" package: With the "agreement" of the left in Congress, Bolsonaro approved a package of billions of reais for "emergency" social programs and is now distributing all of this on the eve of the elections; the left voted in favor of Bolsonaro afraid of unpopularity and now reaps the consequences
• Economy: whether for artificial reasons (government package) or real reasons (end of the pandemic, better international economic scenario), Brazil's economy has really been improving and this makes a difference in the voter's mind
• Government assessment: Bolsonaro had more than 50% of disapproval, now his approval is gradually increasing and is already surpassing disapproval
• Media: the main media in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, which has national reach, surrendered to Bolsonaro, some for suspicious reasons and others because they saw that the Bolsonarist wave was so big that they were afraid of losing their audience, for example, SBT, RedeTV, Rádio Bandeirantes, CNN, Jovem Pan, Record, Veja, Estadão, O Antagonista, the only exceptions are Globo and Uol
• Amazon: it seems a bit repetitive, but it is always necessary in international forums to warn foreigners that the Amazon is not a priority for most Brazilians, who live very far from the North of the country
• Engagement: Bolsonaro has ubiquity on the internet, breaking successive audience records, whether by the use of boots or even by his own more engaged audience, as much as the left has prepared, it has not managed to come even close, some polls even indicate 5x more engagement of pro-Bolsonaro rather than pro-Lula agendas on the internet; in the old analogue world the left has always had an advantage in street demonstrations and still manages to fight Bolsonaro but it is not enough given that 98.1% of the Brazilian population over 10 years old has a cell phone
• Expectation of victory: in the wave of Lula in the 1st round moderate politicians, artists and influencers were appearing alongside Lula and even arranging positions in a future “broad front” government, now that the pendulum has changed all that is dead, Lula’s artists disappeared (Anitta for example) while dozens of new supporters for Bolsonaro appeared (sertanejos singers like Gustavo Lima and Leonardo, jiu-jitsu fighters like Wanderlei Silva and José Aldo, Neymar, non-ideological deputies from Centrão, etc), everyone wants to be next to the winner
• Abstention: usually, abstention is higher in the poorest populations and higher in the 2nd round, which harms Lula, there are several campaigns against this and there will even be free buses in most capitals, but until today an efficient solution has not been found to reduce the abstention
• Polls: polls that placed Bolsonaro exorbitantly below Lula in the 1st round now put the 2 in a technical tie, it is obvious that Bolsonaro is already ahead
• Election day wave: before a privilege of the left, now Bolsonarists are able to create a wave on election day, whether it is a temporal issue (new votes) or sample (vote not captured by polls) the fact is that for one or several of these reasons Bolsonaro will have more votes than the polls are showing

Lula was able to get 48.4% of the votes in the 1st round because the reach of the conservative wave was not yet known, there were still not so many elected allies of Bolsonaro working together, Bolsonaro still had crises of rudeness and scared the moderate conservatives, the campaign was less tiring because Lula was thought to be much further along, the economy was still growing again, Bolsonaro’s “emergency” social programs had not yet had an effect and the expectation of victory created a wave in favor of Lula.

I believe Lula will have more votes than in the first round, but not enough to defeat Bolsonaro. The reality seems so scary that if Lula loses by a little it will even be a victory. I wouldn't be surprised if Lula loses to Bolsonaro with a greater percentage difference than Fernando Haddad in 2018. I'm almost sure that when the polls open on the 30th, Bolsonaro will be with more than 60%, the difference will certainly decrease during the counting when the votes of the poorest are coming in, but not enough to take Bolsonaro's victory.

There are several people asking how a turnaround for Bolsonaro would be possible with Lula reaching 48.4% in the 1st round and without explosive facts. All the explanations were described there.

I hope my prognosis is wrong on Election Day, though.

[RicardoCampos]

We can say that Bolsonaro will start at the front, so to facilitate the follow-up of today's elections, based on my own feeling:

• Bolsonaro >60%: if start with Bolsonaro with more than 60%, Bolsonaro wins
• Bolsonaro <55%: if start with Bolsonaro with less than 55%, Lula wins in the end
• Bolsonaro >55% and <60%: if start with Bolsonaro between 55% and 60%, the result is unpredictable

[RicardoCampos]

We can say that Bolsonaro will start at the front, so to facilitate the follow-up of today's elections, based on my own feeling:

• Bolsonaro >60%: if start with Bolsonaro with more than 60%, Bolsonaro wins
• Bolsonaro <55%: if start with Bolsonaro with less than 55%, Lula wins in the end
• Bolsonaro >55% and <60%: if start with Bolsonaro between 55% and 60%, the result is unpredictable

“Start” in what sense? 5% of the vote counted? 10%? 1%?

5% is a pretty safe margin

[RicardoCampos]

A couple of questions:

How do the overseas results so far compare to 2018?

Given that the voting & counting is all electronic, what would explain why some areas take longer to declare than others, as more votes counted shouldn't equate to taking longer to count?

Presumably it's just a matter of running the same procedure everywhere, are the votes counted at polling stations?

Thanks

The overseas results are not so representative for Brazil. It is a continental country and the internal politics have a great weight.

Some areas in Brazil are more developed than others. Computational processing power and network capacity are factors that make data travel faster. The pro-Lula vote coincides with many poorer areas that have this lower technological efficiency and therefore take longer to reach the central.
There is another reason, which is the queues, which are more common on the outskirts of large centers which, in some cases, can also coincide with the pro-Lula vote.
I also have a hypothesis that poor people vote later because they work more on election day, especially informal workers, while the middle class likes to vote in the morning and go out to lunch afterwards. As votes are sent in a linear way, this can make a difference. But this is my hypothesis and I would also need to see the scope of this phenomenon.

[RicardoCampos]

It must probably be a bigger problem of the network, because some areas in the interior of Brazil in the states of the Northeast and North are very isolated and the connection makes them arrive at the end of the queue at Central. It's not so much a matter of how long it takes to reach the destination, but where in the queue the votes arrive.

[RicardoCampos]

I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

• Uol
• Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
• Brasil247 (Lula supporters)

[RicardoCampos]

I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

• Uol
• Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
• Brasil247 (Lula supporters)

Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

Me too, I love having fun watching them sometimes LOL

[RicardoCampos]

the G1 has a calculation map of the whole of Brazil by municipality

[RicardoCampos]

If it follows the pattern of the 1st round, Lula will win. The difference is already starting to drop.

[RicardoCampos]

Lula is winning in Minas Gerais: 52.61% x 47.39 with 2.48% counting. Tradition says: whoever wins in Minas Gerais wins in Brazil

[RicardoCampos]

Looking at Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo, both Lula and Bolsonaro seem to be improving by the same amount on their first round scores. More for for the looking positive news.

As a resident of both cities, this is disappointing for me. I expected Lula opening a bigger advantage in the 2 capitals. But at least a consistent advantage.

[RicardoCampos]

Yesterday I abruptly left the forum because I went to watch Lula's speech in person, LOL.

I'm going to answer some questions from yesterday/today that haven't been answered.

[RicardoCampos]

Can someone who's more knowledgeable about Brazilian politics than me give a summary of how the Dobbs decision affected the results? I assume it had a big impact on PT turnout, sure, but is it likely that moderate "Never Bolsonaro" suburban voters swung to Lula because of this? I'm working on a piece for CNN.

I'm almost certain that I'm late to this question, but I want to answer because I see this interpretation of Brazil on a recurring basis in several forums.

I didn't understand what "Dobbs decision" is, I googled it and only found references to an abortion decision, so I'll skip that part.

When you say "suburban voters" I assume you are referring to "middle class voters". Brazil's demographics are different from the United States. Most large Brazilian cities usually have a historic and somewhat undervalued central area, surrounded by wealthy and middle-class neighborhoods, which in turn are surrounded by a poor peripheral area. Suburbio in Brazil is a poor place.
Voting in Brazil is not directly linked to the degree of urbanization/ruralization (cities = left, rural population = right), not least because Brazil is more urban than the US. Here, the right-wing vote is concentrated in the wealthiest places, where people want a less "paternalistic" and more neo-liberal government. The left is more voted in the poorest places, due to its social agenda. When the left does poorly in poor places, it is usually because of customs (evangelicals, for example) or public safety (Rio de Janeiro, for example). The left is well voted in rich places when there is extreme hopelessness with right-wing politicians (like Bolsonaro or in the post-dictatorship period).
In the south, southeast and central-west regions, the countryside is not necessarily poorer, many of these small cities are industrial or with strong agribusiness, safe and with quality of life. These areas tend to vote right. The poorest areas are the outskirts of large and medium-sized cities. So the left may have more votes in these metropolitan areas, but for reasons different from the United States. Considering that big cities have rich and poor and small cities can also have this relationship, in the end the rural/urban relationship is equivalent.
In the North and Northeast it is the opposite, the most isolated areas are the poorest, mainly in the Northeast. It is in these places that Lula has a truckload of votes. While the capitals, which have rich and poor, are seen as more right-wing, because they have rich and poor.

In other words, it is not possible to talk about Brazil using a general metric. It is a continental country with many different realities. I further simplified by separating into north and south, considering that Brazil has 5 well-defined regions.

2 exceptions of capitals that voted heavily for the left in relation to the countryside of the states were Porto Alegre and São Paulo. But the reasons are very clear: São Paulo is the birthplace of the PT and Lula. Porto Alegre is historically linked to the left, having been internationally recognized for the creation of the World Social Forum and the implementation of the Participatory Budget.

Returning to the issue of "moderate 'Never Bolsonaro' suburban voters" who, in fact, are "moderate 'Never Bolsonaro' middle class voters", in fact Lula's vote was surprisingly very high in the richest areas of several capitals, but, as I explained in the 4th paragraph, it is more an "anti-Bolsonaro" vote than a "pro-left" vote, unfortunately.

[RicardoCampos]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

[RicardoCampos]

Why did Bolsonaro win Rio De Janiero?? I thought that was a fairly left-wing city

Rio de Janeiro is not just the tourist south zone. The majority of the population lives far from the beach in places where there are many evangelicals and public safety problems, a weakness of the left. In addition, a large part of the population of Rio de Janeiro also lives in areas controlled by the militia, which lobbies for Bolsonaro.

[RicardoCampos]

What's with the big bunch of municipalities closer to the Uruguay border voting for Lula?

It's not just municipalities close to Uruguay, Lula won in vast areas in Rio Grande do Sul.

Rio Grande do Sul was supposed to be a swing-state. The state voted for Lula from 1989 to 2002, electing right-wing and left-wing governors alternately. In 2006, with the Mensalão scandal, he voted for the right. In 2010, Dilma Roussef (PT) won in the 1st round in RS and lost in the 2nd round with a difference of 1%. In that same election, Tarso Genro (PT) was elected governor in the 1st round (believe it or not).

This was the last satisfactory election for the left in RS. As of 2014, RS left the alternation of left/right and succumbed to the right-wing wave of the Center-South of Brazil.

Rio Grande do Sul does not have the tradition of being rightist or leftist, it has always been a polarized state, in all spheres and in politics as well.

Just as there is a lot of ignorance on the part of foreigners in relation to Brazil, there is also a lot of ignorance on the part of Brazilians in relation to the South, as if everything were the same. It is common in Brazilian newspapers to speak of “the Bolsonarista South” or even specifying Rio Grande do Sul as a Bolsonaro stronghold when RS was not even in 2018 among the states with the most votes for Bolsonaro.

As an example, in 2018 Bolsonaro made 63% in RS, but 67% in SP and 70% in RJ.
That year it was 56% in RS, 55% in SP and 57% in RJ.

And then there are southeasterners who have the nerve to associate RS with Bolsonarist strength, supremacism, xenophobia, etc., but they don't look in their own mirror. They forget that RS supported Jango's inauguration before the military dictatorship, had a black governor in 1990 (despite the population being 80% white), a syndicalist governor who had lunch with the landless movement in 1998 and now has the first openly elected governor gay in Brazil (I don't even like this one, but anyway...). Former president Dilma Roussef (PT), from Minas Gerais, had a political career in Rio Grande do Sul. The state also had its expressive rightists.

The fact is that Rio Grande do Sul is contained in the right-wing wave of the Center-South of recent years in Brazil. Even though it's a pretty self-sufficient state, it's impossible to be immune to influences.

Rio Grande do Sul is a very different state from Santa Catarina and Paraná. The state has experienced many wars and internal conflicts and has resulted in a tradition of extreme polarization. That's how it is in football, in the media and in politics. It always has 2 sides.

In the legislature, the left (still) has substantial weight in the state. Paulo Paim (PT-RS) is the only senator in office in Brazil who was elected for the 3rd time in a row and his last re-election was in the Bolsonarista wave of 2018. The PT has the largest bench in the state and federal chambers of RS. The presidency of the state legislative assembly operates on a rotating basis between the 4 largest benches and the PT has the right to stay for 1 year.

I don't have exact numbers, but I dare say that if it weren't for Serra Gaucha, Lula could have won in the rest of the state. Serra Gaúcha is very Bolsonista and has a very great cultural proximity to Serra Catarinense, that is, they are geographically the same area. Santa Catarina is among the most Bolsonarist states in Brazil. The problem is that Bolsonaro had a very high vote associated with low abstention in Serra Gaúcha, it was impossible for the rest of the state to balance with these conditions.

Another interpretation is that Rio Grande do Sul is a state contrary to national consensus. When Lula lost elections, the state voted for him. Then, Brazil started to vote for the PT and the state moved to the right. Can the state turn left again in a few years? I don't know...

If RS has a tradition of being a polarized state, just as the PT replaced Leonel Brizola in the past, this gap on the left will be replaced by another “left”, and I believe that this change will unfortunately be for the worse.

Unfortunately, there are no young left-wing leaders in RS and this has been replaced by an identity wave, with many politicians concerned with representative causes, but without looking at the poor population in general. An example is the reelected governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). The guy is an extreme neo-liberal rightist, but people see him as a progressive just because he's gay and has a nice speech, while cutting teachers' salaries and trying to sell state water companies.

Unfortunately the left in RS looks like it will be replaced by this in the future...

[RicardoCampos]

I know, it's extremely early for that, but is it possible Jair Bolsonaro runs again in 2026? I think it might also become an issue whether Lula runs again or not, due to advanced age. So basically this is also a post-2020 Biden-Trump situation, Brazil edition.

in this case it's an identical problem, the left doesn't even have a leadership equal to Lula and he certainly won't run at 81 years old

[RicardoCampos]

I'm sure this has been explained many times here but is there a reason that the biggest states with metropolitan centers like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, or even Brasilia vote quite right of the country? I feel like their equivalents in the US (CA, NY, DC) are core to the Democratic Party...

Likewise, how has PT held up in the NE? Is this simply a matter of class based politics remaining as the main dividing line? I'm just surprised that a "fascist" president would get so much support from the "educated elite" sections of the country - but maybe I just don't understand the inhabitants of Southern Brazil.

by coincidence, I answered exactly that in post 1897

looks like i was unknowingly replying to a troll LOL so if i had read your post before i would have replied directly to you

read because it has a very complete description

[RicardoCampos]

My understanding from following this thread is it's Class + Race + Pentecostalism + Lula being from the Northeast + Bolsonaro being from Rio de Janeiro state

I thought Lula was from Sao Paulo, not from the Northeast?

was born in the Northeast, moved to SP as a young man to work. The poor people of the Northeast identify a lot with him

[RicardoCampos]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

We've often heard that rainforests are the lungs of the Earth, providing us with most of our required oxygen. While it is indeed true that rainforests may produce up to a quarter of atmospheric oxygen, most of it is consumed by the rainforests themselves by degradation of organic matter. Most of our atmospheric oxygen actually comes from the oceans.

Oxygen is produced during photosynthesis and all of the oxygen in the atmosphere has been produced by photosynthesising plants and bacteria. Because rainforests are luscious and fast-growing, it has become common to think of them as the lungs of the Earth. It is true that a lot of oxygen is produced there, but almost all of it is consumed simultaneously.

[RicardoCampos]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

Despite the reference to the "region" that was not even named, much of the world, including Europe, has had numerous dictatorships in recent periods. The US supported and conspired in favor of many of them.

The US also has a history of internal wars and recent elections with extremely controversial results.

[RicardoCampos]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...
I... better not say anything this time.

No surprises. That's where Brazil's rich go. In times of favorable exchange rates, even the lower middle class would go there, walk around and buy tax-free video games and return to Brazil with the same amount they would have spent to buy a video game in the country.

In fact, Brazil has a very different immigration to the United States than Mexico and the countries of Central America. In these, many poor people are able to make their way over land and seek social assistance in the country, usually from the Democratic Party.

In Brazil, this is impossible given the distance. Most of those who come to the United States to live instead of for tourist reasons are people of a decadent middle class who have a cultural level that allows them to go to the United States on reasonable terms, but some financial difficulty that makes them take that desperate attitude of moving to another country. Most like the free market and love everything that appears in Hollywood advertisements and of course they will vote for Trump and Bolsonaro.

[RicardoCampos]

I can finally post links! I will start with the comparison of votes by municipality of the 2nd round of 2018 and 2022:

[RicardoCampos]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...
I... better not say anything this time.

No surprises. That's where Brazil's rich go. In times of favorable exchange rates, even the lower middle class would go there, walk around and buy tax-free video games and return to Brazil with the same amount they would have spent to buy a video game in the country.

In fact, Brazil has a very different immigration to the United States than Mexico and the countries of Central America. In these, many poor people are able to make their way over land and seek social assistance in the country, usually from the Democratic Party.

In Brazil, this is impossible given the distance. Most of those who come to the United States to live instead of for tourist reasons are people of a decadent middle class who have a cultural level that allows them to go to the United States on reasonable terms, but some financial difficulty that makes them take that desperate attitude of moving to another country. Most like the free market and love everything that appears in Hollywood advertisements and of course they will vote for Trump and Bolsonaro.

It’s not limited to Brazil at all! It’s immigrants in Florida in general, which receives lots of wealthy immigration from ALL Latin America and even beyond. Watch how they vote every election lmao

Which is why I always find HILARIOUS when Democrats act like these people are the kind of average Latinos they should cater to while basically giving the middle finger to the Mexicans and Central Americans (mostly) that live in the border states of their country, being way more reliable and easy to create an electoral relationship with.

The more democrats try to cater to these people in Florida, the more Bolsonaro-like they will have to sound.

It's that old American custom of thinking that everyone in other countries is the same person.

Normally, this seems just bullsh**t from internet debates, but see how in this case this attitude interferes with American domestic politics itself.

[RicardoCampos]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

We've often heard that rainforests are the lungs of the Earth, providing us with most of our required oxygen. While it is indeed true that rainforests may produce up to a quarter of atmospheric oxygen, most of it is consumed by the rainforests themselves by degradation of organic matter. Most of our atmospheric oxygen actually comes from the oceans.

Oxygen is produced during photosynthesis and all of the oxygen in the atmosphere has been produced by photosynthesising plants and bacteria. Because rainforests are luscious and fast-growing, it has become common to think of them as the lungs of the Earth. It is true that a lot of oxygen is produced there, but almost all of it is consumed simultaneously.

Yes, as far as I understand the Amazon's main ecological role is capturing carbon off the atmosphere (you know, the thing that's causing climate change), not producing oxygen. Still a pretty important role no matter how you want to put it.

And that's why calling it the lungs of the world is fake news.

For its importance to the world, the Amazon might as well be a metaphorical pair of lungs, and this analogy may have been helpful in galvanizing action around deforestation. But to most researchers, it doesn’t make much sense—not least because actual lungs inhale oxygen rather than exhaling it.

“If people want to relate it to a fundamental part of their body that maintains stability and maintains life, maintains wellbeing—symbolically, you can make some kind of association,” says Nobre. “But physically speaking, it’s not really the lungs of the world, no.”

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/why-amazon-doesnt-produce-20-percent-worlds-oxygen