French presidential election, 2022

[pikachu]

Probably dumb question from French politics noob, but how has Le Pen done previously with the cohort people born in ‘80s and ‘90s? A bit surprised by the 25-34 cohort being so close even if the explanations for Le Pen’s success among working-age people make sense.

[Storr]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

Oh look. It's another day that ends in y.

[Hash]

An interesting map: the change in Macron's vote since 2017, with the national baseline currently being -7.55%



Huge overseas losses (the biggest, by far - like -44.7% in Guadeloupe!) except for very sui generis and low turnout (32.8% valid turnout) New Caledonia, where those who voted in any significant number (whites/anti-separatists) appreciated FBM's stance on the ongoing independence referendum/debate. In France, substantial losses in the southwest and Limousin/Massif Central, particularly more rural departments, and much more modest losses in Ile-de-France and the northeast/east, including Panzergirl heartlands like Pas-de-Calais. So Macron's losses seem to have been more limited in most urban areas (to be confirmed), as well as certain regions where Panzergirl had already been strongest in 2017.

I'll continue digging into this and try to build a hypothetical Panzergirl runoff vote at the constituency level based on Ipsos/Ifop's vote transfer stats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

Please show the tweets. I'm in the mood for some good old-fashioned dunking.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1518319509031071748
He spent the last two weeks with his only commentary on it being arguing that Le Pen is basically a socialist and may win with support consolidated from left-wing voters so now that he's been clowned all he does is more pissy Twitter fighting.

[Oryxslayer]

An interesting map: the change in Macron's vote since 2017, with the national baseline currently being -7.55%



Huge overseas losses (the biggest, by far - like -44.7% in Guadeloupe!) except for very sui generis and low turnout (32.8% valid turnout) New Caledonia, where those who voted in any significant number (whites/anti-separatists) appreciated FBM's stance on the ongoing independence referendum/debate. In France, substantial losses in the southwest and Limousin/Massif Central, particularly more rural departments, and much more modest losses in Ile-de-France and the northeast/east, including Panzergirl heartlands like Pas-de-Calais. So Macron's losses seem to have been more limited in most urban areas (to be confirmed), as well as certain regions where Panzergirl had already been strongest in 2017.

I'll continue digging into this and try to build a hypothetical Panzergirl runoff vote at the constituency level based on Ipsos/Ifop's vote transfer stats.

Is this measured as share of total voters, or valid voters? I think the former may be more valuable given changes in patterns of abstention.

Also, mandatory comment that this map has a high correlation with Lassalle's support map, though Lassalle clearly wasn't the cause. Rather, it seems many of currents that attracted voters to him also sent voters away from Macron. 

[VPH]

Lassalle made a point of abstaining, although I doubt he necessarily dragged voters with him. More likely he served as a vehicle for protest votes.

[Horus]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean?

[Oryxslayer]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean? almost all Overseas Departments?

Probably the same reason Melenchon did good there in round 1. The overseas communities each face unique issues right now that stem from isolation from the Metropole, issues that aren't getting answered well. This results in a feeling among residents that they are ignored, left behind, or aren't valued. Obviously Melenchon was the preferred candidate who appeared to have the solutions, but if you are going to rage against the system, then you don't go Macron.

[GoTfan]

Twitter righties are losing their collective minds and screaming that the whole thing was rigged.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

A look at Ipsos' analysis data in my classical graph format:

CSP:


Nothing too unexpected, but I'm surprised to see a 10 point gap in the Panzergirl vote between workers and employees - it wasn't the case 2 weeks ago - so I'm curious to see what Ifop will have to say here.

I'm guessing "ouvrier" effectively means "independent contractor" (which is different from employee, licensed professional, or executive/business owner), "Bac +2" = "some college", and "Bac +3 etc." = "college graduate"?

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.

CSP:

I noticed that Zemmour and Jadot support in the 1st round was negatively correlated with income, even though they generally did better in better-off areas (plus Pied Noir and MENA Jewish enclaves for the former)

[Tintrlvr]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean? almost all Overseas Departments?

Probably the same reason Melenchon did good there in round 1. The overseas communities each face unique issues right now that stem from isolation from the Metropole, issues that aren't getting answered well. This results in a feeling among residents that they are ignored, left behind, or aren't valued. Obviously Melenchon was the preferred candidate who appeared to have the solutions, but if you are going to rage against the system, then you don't go Macron.

I understand more generally that the Overseas Departments, and especially the Caribbean, tends to be strongly anti-incumbent (for the reasons you cited; if Melenchon or Le Pen had won they’d quickly turn against either, too).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Where would Le Penn voters have gone in a hypothetical Macron Vs Melenchon race ?

[Agafin]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean? almost all Overseas Departments?

Probably the same reason Melenchon did good there in round 1. The overseas communities each face unique issues right now that stem from isolation from the Metropole, issues that aren't getting answered well. This results in a feeling among residents that they are ignored, left behind, or aren't valued. Obviously Melenchon was the preferred candidate who appeared to have the solutions, but if you are going to rage against the system, then you don't go Macron.

Interesting.

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

[H. Ross Peron]

Le Pen narrowly lost Toulon, so the largest city she won in metropolitan France seems to be Calais which is the 69th largest city in France.

[H. Ross Peron]

Le Pen narrowly lost Toulon, so the largest city she won in metropolitan France seems to be Calais which is the 69th largest city in France.

Of course, among all French cities Le Pen won Saint-Denis in Reunion and Fort-de-France in Martinique.

[Isaak]

Where would Le Penn voters have gone in a hypothetical Macron Vs Melenchon race ?

Given the Macron-Melenchon second round polling (that suggested an even more lopsided result in the 60-40/65-35 range), I would assume Macron.

[Velasco]

Relief and concern. Mixed emotions

Are these vote transfer figures telling anything?

https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1518297462284423168?t=6kq7dwAJmDMyKE_...

[Alben Barkley]

Ideology:

Horseshoe theory is so real it's not even funny.

[Хahar 🤔]

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

a) Other than in New Caledonia (and the two white territories, where the vote in question would be unimportant), non-white voters in overseas territories would not have reason to regard themselves as ethnic minorities.
b) Overseas territories overwhelmingly cast their vote in the first round for the candidate of the left.
c) The choice offered in the second round was between a candidate of the right and a candidate of the far right, which would seem to limit its applicability to any other situations save those with a similar choice.

Not everything needs to be part of a world-historical narrative about whatever was read into the results of the last American election. Sometimes different things are different.

[Alben Barkley]

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

a) Other than in New Caledonia (and the two white territories, where the vote in question would be unimportant), non-white voters in overseas territories would not have reason to regard themselves as ethnic minorities.
b) Overseas territories overwhelmingly cast their vote in the first round for the candidate of the left.
c) The choice offered in the second round was between a candidate of the right and a candidate of the far right, which would seem to limit its applicability to any other situations save those with a similar choice.

Not everything needs to be part of a world-historical narrative about whatever was read into the results of the last American election. Sometimes different things are different.

Macron is center, not "right."

Also there are other trends clearly showing up here which match American election results uncannily. Like the education results are almost identical. So it may not be a perfect parallel (certainly the age and gender parts aren't) but there are definitely some coinciding trends which shouldn't be ignored. What's happened lately in America is not some unique, isolated incident. It's absolutely part of global trends towards populism (left and right) and the weakening of the center. It has held for the most part; it did here in 2020 and did here as well, but it's not as strong as it was even a few years ago, let alone 20 years ago when Chirac absolutely crushed Le Pen's Nazi father and when Bill Clinton could win a landslide in America. The golden age of the liberal consensus is eroding in the West. Burying our heads in the sand and ignoring that fact won't make it go away. The longer we wait, the more we write off close calls like this as simply aberrations, the worse the situation is likely to get until it is too late. A strong and active response to demonstrate clearly to the people why the paths of these populist leaders are a road to ruin is essential.

I honestly think Vladimir Putin is doing a hell of a job in making our case for us, however, ironically enough. He is the logical endgame of the likes of Trump and Le Pen if they could get everything they wanted. And now we've seen precisely what that has done to his own country, to say nothing of the bloodshed and horror he has unleashed upon a country that did nothing to him for no reason. People are waking up again to the evils of fascism thanks to him. I guess we all owe him some gratitude then, in a weird way? I honestly believe this election would have been far closer if Putin hadn't goose-stepped his way into Ukraine as he did.

[Zinneke]

Can a French speaker help me with this?  I have a question regarding "période de cohabitation" in the following article, which appeared in Le Monde earlier today.  
We use the word "cohabitation" in English to mean "vivre ensemble" but that seems odd here.  The only thing I can think of is that it refers to a political party holding both the national legislature and the presidency simultaneously.  At the moment the REM has the biggest share of seats in the parliament, so this would make sense.  Is that correct?  Thank you.

Yes, cohabitation refers to periods when the president and the lower house/government (led by the prime minister responsible to parliament) are from different political families. There have been three cohabitation periods under the Fifth Republic - 1986-88, 1993-95 and 1997-02. Macron is the only president besides de Gaulle to win reelection without a cohabitation, or with his party controlling the National Assembly/government. Whether or not this makes his victory more impressive is another question.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government)

Technically Macron lost his majority and needed a coalition. Not cohabitation but I feel like he doesn't deserve the "record" either.

Macron is center, not "right."

Macron is sui generis really. In typical French fashion, the personality takes precedence over any ideological coherence. No centrist across Europe really resembles him or his trajectory. He's an ex-PS member who had a very PS vote in the first round of 2017 and now has a very centre-right vote in 2022 first round

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1518487356038385664

Great thread outlining that what the second round shows is a sharpening of the kind of social factors that are seen across Europe. Before France had very peculiar patterns...now the Big Three have delivered some clarity but it reveals a deeply socially fractured country.

[Agafin]

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

a) Other than in New Caledonia (and the two white territories, where the vote in question would be unimportant), non-white voters in overseas territories would not have reason to regard themselves as ethnic minorities.
Well, the same could be said of the Rio Grande Valley which is rather insular and something like 90-95% Hispanic. I'm sure most of them don't really consider themselves as minorities within their local communities. They are still ethnic minorities in the larger picture of American electorate though. Same with the "Antillais" in France.
b) Overseas territories overwhelmingly cast their vote in the first round for the candidate of the left.
Hispanics also overwhelmingly voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Biden's poor performance with them carried over to the general, same with Macron.
c) The choice offered in the second round was between a candidate of the right and a candidate of the far right, which would seem to limit its applicability to any other situations save those with a similar choice.
Good thing then that we already had this exact same situation five years ago so we can easily see the trends. Macron was getting 65-75% of the vote against Lepen in these same overseas territories he's getting trounced in. Something obviously must have changed. There seems to be no stigma at all with being a national rally supporter there right now.

Not everything needs to be part of a world-historical narrative about whatever was read into the results of the last American election. Sometimes different things are different.
I agree with you but I do think that Lepen winning 60-70% of the vote in various majority black constituencies is absolutely noteworthy no matter who her opponent is.

[parochial boy]

Macron is absolutely "right", if a political line of cutting the welfare state, economic liberalism, cracking down on migrants etc, etc, then you are basically trying to redefine what the right actually is

There has always been a tradition in European and French politics of right-wing politics being accompanied by a degree of cultural liberalism. Giscard d'Estaing was nothing if not a right-wing president and in any acse, the self-identified "centre" in France has traditionally been inseparable from the right when it comes to electoral alliances and all the rest. And when you look at Macron's policies, who is his government (hint some very hard line rightwingers) and who supports him (Sarkozy, enthusiastically) then the guy is right wing. This is not even a debate to be had.

As for the DOM-TOM, I posted this earlier. Because more to the point, they have very specific circumstances and actually don't particularly resemble each other.

And to add to that - the likes of Guadeloupe and Réunion have extremely precarious economic situations, with unemployment rates of 20-30%, and therefore elements of the French welfare state (eg the RSA - an subsidy for people on low incomes) act as a genuine lifeline for the residents of these areas who are otherwise faced with poverty and little to no prospects. One key plank of Macron's programme was to limit the RSA to people in employment, which, on a remote island with 30% unemployment would mean a necessity cutting off a huge chunk of the population. When you understand things this way - and the reaction to Macron's programme more widely - you start to understand that voting for literally anybody except him becomes almost an act of self-preservation

[Alben Barkley]

Macron is absolutely "right", if a political line of cutting the welfare state, economic liberalism, cracking down on migrants etc, etc, then you are basically trying to redefine what the right actually is

"Left" and "right" are not meaningful terms in their own right really, they are always defined relatively in terms of where you are and who you are up against. In that sense Macron and LREM are absolutely the center party in France.