French presidential election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Lingering effects of that still contributing to the political malaise in both countries today?

I mean in France those lingering effects can be found across the south in communities of Pied-Noir descendants raised in an environment of nostalgia. Given that this group is now nearing retirement age, they are the prefect floor of support for Le Pen and the ilk near her politically.

[Oryxslayer]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier to beat by a wide margin.

Weirdly polls suggest Zemmour is defeated by a wider margin ATM.

[Oryxslayer]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

They figured out that it was better to work with rather than challenge Macron, meaning everyone left who actually wants to go for the office has to be be sufficiently divergent from both those guys and Macron.

[Oryxslayer]

Should Hidalgo and Melenchon become only one candidature? Should one of them decline and support the other?
Probably, if both run, the left will not go to the runoff.

Should? Unless Macron collapses the combined left candidates lack the support to advance unless there is a single serious candidate.

Will they? Unlikely for many reasons already elaborated on, and Melenchon is unlikely to be the endorsee if on of the several candidates aligned with the left drops - and he isn't likely to drop out even if his support craters to below 5%.

[Oryxslayer]

When are the primaries of the right going to be held? And who of cand Xavier is favoured? I'm out of the loop.

Pécresse is the winner of the LR primary. That's done. Bertrand is out. Unless you mean shadow-primary where those without a chance at victory drop out. That won't really be happening for the right, even though there is a slight chance it happens between Jadot and Hildago. If their egos are big, then Le Pen's, Zemmour's, and Pécresse's are either bigger or pushed to be bigger by circumstance. Le Pen can't abandon her built-up position as long-term standard bearer, Pécresse has what remains of the LR machine pushing her forward, and Zemmour has probably the biggest ego of the entire field.

Of the three who are favored, it depends upon what you believe. If you think Pécresse's honeymoon will fade like others have before, then the Le Pen default will return to the runoff slot like previously. If you don't, then Pécresse advances alongside Macron, given that she is pulling from two small pools of voters and her rivals only can pull from one.

[Oryxslayer]

Is Macron basically guaranteed to win?

No, but the many-sided dice of election outcomes is almost all yellow. Macron is popular enough by French standards, the conservative opposition is fragmented, and the left have basically given up. So a slot in the runoff is all but guaranteed. Zemmour would need to resurge to actually get into the runoff, but he appears to guarantee a Macron victory in said runoff. Le Pen and Pécresse - more likely Le Pen of the two - still could get an upset in the coming three months, but that would be a reversal of the current trajectories.

[Oryxslayer]

Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

[Oryxslayer]

To conclude the point of eventual outcomes, the economist released a presidential election model, and of course the outcomes highly favor the Incumbent:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1488895289398337537?s=20&t=qRdkvB_46...

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any indications of how the legislative elections will go? On paper you would think En Marche is less popular than it was in 2017, but the Republicans don’t look any more popular, the Socialists are in disarray (but like the Republicans held up well in the regional elections), the National Rally looks weakened, Zemmour’s Party doesn’t seem to have any organisation etc. Essentially it looks like everyone should be standing still or doing worse in the 1st round except Zemmour’s party, but people are still going to be faced with a narrow choice in the 2nd round (and given there’s a lot more vote splitting between the right wing parties, presumably they could do quite well if there’s more 2nd round consolidation than 2017, particularly if the Republican candidate gets through).

Once again, bet on REM winning a good majority through being the better of two runoff options for left voters vs the right, and visa versa for right voters vs the left - as well as REM just being the party of the winning candidate. That said, is their any good info yet on candidates or the seats the non-REM parties could be focusing on? Cause it seems like Le Pen could sadly, but finally, get a semi-proportional share of seats compared to her vote total. Thanks to the normalization of her politics among the right, RN candidates now can pull from another pool voters in the runoff, but the party has never had a large base of talent to draw from.

[Oryxslayer]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

Wonder if she'll endorse and who it would be. Hidalgo should also drop out and probably Rousell. The left needs to consolidate behind Jadot or Melenchon Their the only two with a shot at making the runoff.

At this point the 'left' doesn't care about the runoff and certainly won't consolidate when the animosity is high. Taubira only dropped out cause of endorsements. Any belief that Macron could be defeated from that side is long out the window - and the other side is on very, very, thin ice.

[Oryxslayer]

What's the difference between workers and employees?

I assume that workers means hard labour activities like factory workers or construction workers, and employees are office workers in services.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the former contains more visible minorities than the later.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1501687979303227394?s=20&t=Z4IGJ-mKNo...

It's one poll, but I feel it deserves mention. Putin did the impossible, he gave a French president a positive approval rating.

[Oryxslayer]

Since Macron is likely to win reelection, what are the chances his party also wins a governing majority in the legislative elections a month later? As I know, the president's party controlling parliament is more of the rule than the exception, in contrast to America.

Probably guaranteed, and if not just his party, then certainly the alliance overall. Real question is if/how many seats are lost , which may still be very few. The main legislative opposition in 2017 was the right, and now they are in just as much disarray as the left was back then. Plus LREM still will often benefit from from being the 'most acceptable' of the two runoff options: collecting the left votes when its LREM vs Right, right votes when its LREM vs Left, and a chunk of both when its LREM vs RN.

The real question I posited earlier will be whether the far right finally breaks through the cordon legislatively and gets a number of seats loosely equivalent to their first round votes. Their views have been somewhat more normalized, and the right as a whole has pivoted in their direction, potentially facilitating vote transfers. Previously all other parties voters would consolidate around the not RN option, whereas this time there are at least some groups who would go for the far right in a runoff. But this obviously requires a decent effort on the part of the Far Right to contest the legislative elections, which may not occur.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508928143029157891?s=20&t=HQ7APTrth...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508929037321879557?s=20&t=HQ7APTrth...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508930257159704590?s=20&t=HQ7APTrth...

I think these sort of vote transfer gauges are interesting. The things that stook out to me is what has hppened to the Hamon voters since Hildago has fallen far below even his low, and how this shows what we long knew about Zemmour: he pulls from both the traditional 'elite' right as well as the extreme right in equal amounts.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

To that end, Melenchon is probably an obstacle rather than an ally, so everyone should hope he just decides not to run because of age reasons. Setting aside all of his problems for the moment, the man's coalition electorally seems to constantly be a case of comparatively high floor but too low ceiling. Therefore, he can never make the runoff unless the overall vote is sufficiently split. As long as a chunk of voters see him has the best option, there will be a smaller pool for any other progressive candidate to appeal to.

[Oryxslayer]

I suppose the one saving grace for the French Left is that there doesn't really seem to be an anointed successor for The Flawless and the Beautiful when he decides to shed his mortal guise and ascend Mount Olympus, and his absence would free up a lot of woolly centre left voters vaguely ok with him as a figure that has some need to occasionally give them some policy bones. Of course, the fact that the French Left needs these people and finds it so hard to grab some people that aouldy have voted for UK labour and the SPD even at their nadirs is not particularly fantastic news, but that predated the  Flanpocalypse tbh.

On this point, it seems that a lot of the newer generation of voters who identify with the left, which no longer are simply 'young' but also in the 30-45 category, do not assign the value to many principles that previous left-identifying voters do. Unions and Labor take a back seat to Climate Change and the associated economic transformation. This generation has also grown up within the EU and while may not identify as European, see it as a bulwark against the backsliding of all types of rights - maybe incorrectly given Hungry. We see these voters act upon this in most other countries with multiparty systems - even Hildago wouldn't have gotten to where she is without climate policies and urban planning transformations. Which is something that speaks to why Macron does end up as the preferred candidate for a lot of voters who once would have voted PS: he appeals to these 'new' issues and identities and voters can look past/don't care about a fiscally right set accompanying issues.

To that end, the EELV might have the 2027 Presidential frontrunner somewhere in it's midst right now, but Jadot is clearly not it.

[Oryxslayer]

I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

At the expense of LR? It would pretty hilarious from an observational perspective if Macron killed both of the former major parties. Though I imagine on the ground it's far grimmer considering the future trajectories of the further-right and the remnants of the left.

I mean we have yet to see the legislative elections, but judging from where LR stood in 2017, and what is happening now, it's not hard to imagine them getting cannibalized by LREM and an insurgent FN that seeks to try and become a serious opposition party. At which point they look just like PS - a party dominated by councilors - only the LR mainstream and UDI probably have fewer qualms aligning with LREM if thats what happens.

Which is probably one of the reasons why the "left" parties are all playing more for the legislatives and future positioning: a center to right LREM opens a potential window that was shut by a center-left to center-right LREM. Obviously though the 'right' pool of voters is smaller thanks to the far-right and not just LREM, and FN isn't going anywhere after this contest.

[Oryxslayer]

Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

That's a lot of buzzwords applied to an election which has gotten close because of none of them. Go back a few weeks when Nato and the EU were the big issues French media concerned themselves about, cause of Ukraine, and you see that this was Macron's high point in polling for several years. Got positive approval rating in a few polls, which should be impossible under the French system. If you actually cared to read and do research, you would know that the tightening is mainly cause of "it's the economy stupid."

[Oryxslayer]

The citing of Chevènement is because the mythology of the man's anti-EU stance is important for some "left" types who are behind the Front Populaire magazine for example and might be tempted by Le Pen's "sovereignty above ideology". A visible example is Natachy Polony, but you also have Kuzmanovic, Onfray, a bunch of others who

But let's not call these people left-wing. They are, for all intents and purposes, Neo-Strasserites.

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

100% this too. Even if Macron wins in fact, LREM are such an incompentent force in terms of on the ground activism that his "guarenteed majority" is up for grabs afterwards. This why incidentally Jadot, Hidalgo, and Roussel are still running. They know they won't be President but they need the exposure for their parties to hold on and potentially even gain from the legislatives right after. That and their deposit.

If macron wins, I don't see another party than en marche to win the majority.

If MLP wins, I see a strong RN-Z-LR (partly) alliance. Probably to win a majority. But maybe not.

For everything that has happened in the last few weeks, it still seems unlikely that LREM+ will lose a majority of the seats - still might net lose seats, but hard to see them losing. Macron's destruction of LR/UDI might not be a benefit right now in the first round, but it will in the legislatives when there is no point voting for those two out of power parties when compared to LREM or FN depending upon the voter's loyalties. Since LREM already holds a lot of the 'left' seats, the opposition from that angle would have to depose incumbents in a runoff where LREM probably consolidates all parties to to the right of said left party. This will especially be the case if the legislative round 1 vote looks like the presidential round 1 vote and there's an abnormal number of LREM/FN runoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Macron legislative contest ends up with LREM near net zero change: picks up a bunch of LR/UDI seats, loses seats to FN in areas of far-right strength they won through being the 'not FN' party at a worse time for FN, and lose some urban seats to the constellation of the Left parties.

[Oryxslayer]

I wouldn't be surprised if based on the polls tomorrow we see a triple-polarization between the big three, albeit probably with Melenchon a bit further back. Essentially, between Melenchon, Le Pen, and Macron, there are a lot of blowouts locally in favor of one or the other. Melenchon in urban places like S-S-D; Le Pen in some rurals, the North and South; Macron in some cities, suburbs, and the west.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513115084591095814?s=20&t=eNyci1I70...

Apparently S-S-D turnout is down 10%, which should be both a symbol of the Left's disunity and the fact that Melenchon isn't a good replacement.

[Oryxslayer]

But already amusing watching the Mélenchon fanboys cream themselves over good results in the islands. 51% in Guyana is impressive but turnout is shocking there. I still won't be surprised by a Mélenchon surge that falls just short but that we spinned by his minions as a stolen election and he is now the Real Opposition (TM)

If it falls short, then they should blame themselves.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177926509936641?s=20&t=f6f42T-m6...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177996827545600?s=20&t=f6f42T-m6...

Map is starting to look a lot like one of where Macron did best last time and LREM in the Euros. North and south have lower overall turnout, and west + Alps + urban/suburban central regions doing good. The Lyon region is where I imagine LREM's average demographics converge most strongly, and one of the few places doing better than 2017. Meanwhile, on the Melenchon side of the spectrum, S-S-D continues to be pitiful and I wouldn't be surprised if there is stark turnout differences between the Arrondissements in Paris.

[Oryxslayer]

No surprise, Jadot endorses FBM as well.

As does Pecresse

Melenchon negatively endorses Le Pen 3 times, essentially telling his supporters to abstain or vote Macron without uttering his name. Also hints that this is his last run.

[Oryxslayer]

Cotes-d'Armor (located in Brittany) is tracking well with the overall national vote.

It'll get more Macron - like most of Brittney just base on what we have seem previously. Most of the places with big uncounted areas right now are populous ones favoring Macron. And the Breton provinces are well more LREM than the nation.

[Oryxslayer]

Dupont-Aignan unsurprisingly endorses Le Pen.