French presidential election, 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now less than one year away.

[CumbrianLefty]

Already so much looking forward to this.

Not.

[beesley]

I'm watching from the 3éme circonscription pour les Français établis hors de France.
We voted last time:

If you don't mind me asking, what made you come to the UK? Are you ever planning to return?

I think the results for each district are available on Wikipedia.

[parochial boy]

Specifically, the first round has to take place between the 8th and 23rd of April. Almost always that means the last available Sunday, so I expect the 17th April is the most probable date for the first roud

News this week is Yannick Jadot (EELV president) organised some big meeting between the left about tactics slash a non-aggresion pact slash a united candidate for 2022. Pretty much everyone took part, except Mélenchon who was out of the country (which Jadot already knew when he organised the meeting) and even while present, LFI were pretty clearly underrepresented in comparison to the PS and EELV.

Olivier Faure (PS leader) came out saying that he expected a joint candidate, only for EELV spokesman Julien Bayou to immediately talk down that possibility.

Realistically there won't be a join left candidate. Even if an EELV one supported by the PS is possible (depending what Anne Hidalgo does, probably) there is too much of an ego game, but also too much political disagreement to make it really possible to work.

Or to put it in other words, just as Méluche is completely unpalatable to large swathes of the potential left wing electorate; the centrist figures like Jadot and Hidalgo are as well. So any of the three are doomed to failure. I've mentioned before, that a progressive EELV candidate like Grenoble mayor Éric Piolle might be able to pull a bigger left-wing coalition together, but at the moment, I don't think there is going to be a world where Jadot and Mélenchon aren't both standing.

Or in other words, the left is already KO.

I can't find the results for the Europeans by constituency abroad; but all French abroad kept up good scores for LREM, also good for the Greens; average for LR; awful for Le Pen/Bardella. (Perhaps someone has these?) Amusingly, LREM won in Saint-Denis with only 15% of the vote, so many minor left wing parties were there.

Voilà. Brut numbers not percentages, but pretty much bang on 40% in the 3rd constituency. I couldn't find constituency results, but UK French voted 50,8% Hollande in 2012.

Generally the French abroad are like Macron perfect demographic - well educated, prosperous and liberal/internationalist in outlook. Especially the UK bunch who are overrepresented in things like the finance industry.

[Lord Halifax]

Realistically there won't be a join left candidate.

So given that Macron is guaranteed to beat Le Pen the only way he can lose is if Bertrand somehow makes the run-off and a lot of left wing voters stay home?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Voilà. Brut numbers not percentages, but pretty much bang on 40% in the 3rd constituency. I couldn't find constituency results, but UK French voted 50,8% Hollande in 2012.

Generally the French abroad are like Macron perfect demographic - well educated, prosperous and liberal/internationalist in outlook. Especially the UK bunch who are overrepresented in things like the finance industry.

Ah, merci bien. I was looking at the Ministère de l'Intérieur site which goes down to commune in the hexagon, but not to constituency for French abroad.
We had pretty awful turnout in that election, didn't we?. The Swiss seemed rather keen on Fillon in 2017, to which you no doubt contributed  

[Geoffrey Howe]

Realistically there won't be a join left candidate.

So given that Macron is guaranteed to beat Le Pen the only way he can lose is if Bertrand somehow makes the run-off and a lot of left wing voters stay home?

Looking at some of the polls, it's not guaranteed, especially if he has some additional issues going on. That said, the way things stand, I struggle to see Le Pen beating him in the runoff. I'll wait to see him trounce her in the debate.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think there's going to be a rematch from 2017 with Macron and LePen facing each other in a runoff. Macron will win by a smaller margin than last time. 57% to 43% or so.

[parochial boy]

Ah, merci bien. I was looking at the Ministre de l'Intérieur site which goes down to commune in the hexagon, but not to constituency for French abroad.
We had pretty awful turnout in that election, didn't we?. The Swiss seemed rather keen on Fillon in 2017, to which you no doubt contributed 

I grew up less than 100m from the border, but thankfully I'm not a French citizen at all Just a concerned bystander from a part of the world that is very strongly influenced by France's culture.

French people in Switzerland are and have always been noticeably right-wing, in part thanks to the tax exile crowd. Old aged socially conservative tax exiles were like Fillon's dream demographic: I remember seeing some results by precinct in 2017 that had him on like 50% in the first round in the wealthy eastern suburbs of Geneva.

So given that Macron is guaranteed to beat Le Pen the only way he can lose is if Bertrand somehow makes the run-off and a lot of left wing voters stay home?

There has been a fair deal of "a Macron-Le Pen rematch is inevitable" coverage this week. But I wouldn't say it is at all. Remember how fast things changed last time round. Among other things there is still the potential of a Zemmour candidacy, or some anti-establishment outrider coming in and messing things up. Add to that the ever existing potential of scandals/covid disasters/protests or riots and so on. Although having said that, there does seem to be a core of 20-25% who will back Macron no matter what, so I'd still expect to see him in the second round

[Lord Halifax]

There has been a fair deal of "a Macron-Le Pen rematch is inevitable" coverage this week. But I wouldn't say it is at all. Remember how fast things changed last time round. Among other things there is still the potential of a Zemmour candidacy, or some anti-establishment outsider coming in and messing things up. Add to that the ever existing potential of scandals/covid disasters/protests or riots and so on. Although having said that, there does seem to be a core of 20-25% who will back Macron no matter what, so I'd still expect to see him in the second round

I assumed Zemmour was a no-hoper.

[parochial boy]

There has been a fair deal of "a Macron-Le Pen rematch is inevitable" coverage this week. But I wouldn't say it is at all. Remember how fast things changed last time round. Among other things there is still the potential of a Zemmour candidacy, or some anti-establishment outsider coming in and messing things up. Add to that the ever existing potential of scandals/covid disasters/protests or riots and so on. Although having said that, there does seem to be a core of 20-25% who will back Macron no matter what, so I'd still expect to see him in the second round

I assumed Zemmour was a no-hoper.

The point is more, if he's at close to 10%, then it's pretty obvious whose electorate most of that 10% is coming from.

[Lord Halifax]

There has been a fair deal of "a Macron-Le Pen rematch is inevitable" coverage this week. But I wouldn't say it is at all. Remember how fast things changed last time round. Among other things there is still the potential of a Zemmour candidacy, or some anti-establishment outsider coming in and messing things up. Add to that the ever existing potential of scandals/covid disasters/protests or riots and so on. Although having said that, there does seem to be a core of 20-25% who will back Macron no matter what, so I'd still expect to see him in the second round

I assumed Zemmour was a no-hoper.

The point is more, if he's at close to 10%, then it's pretty obvious whose electorate most of that 10% is coming from.

Yes, but if the Left doesn't have a unity candidate that'll either benefit Bertrand (afaik the only centre-right candidate that could pass even a weakened Le Pen) or be irrelevant.

[Lord Halifax]

Remember how fast things changed last time round.

The obvious difference is that there's an incumbent this time, which generally makes the situation less volatile.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I assumed Zemmour was a no-hoper.

The point is more, if he's at close to 10%, then it's pretty obvious whose electorate most of that 10% is coming from.

Obviously Le Pen, but what sort of Le Pen supporters are his? Maybe more of a Dupont-Aignan crowd? I don't really know much about M. Zemmour to be honest.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah, merci bien. I was looking at the Ministre de l'Intérieur site which goes down to commune in the hexagon, but not to constituency for French abroad.
We had pretty awful turnout in that election, didn't we?. The Swiss seemed rather keen on Fillon in 2017, to which you no doubt contributed  

French people in Switzerland are and have always been noticeably right-wing, in part thanks to the tax exile crowd. Old aged socially conservative tax exiles were like Fillon's dream demographic: I remember seeing some results by precinct in 2017 that had him on like 50% in the first round in the wealthy eastern suburbs of Geneva.

IIRC Fillon's best results abroad were from Israel. May I ask who you supported in the last election? Mélenchon? Hamon? Macron, subsequently to be disappointed?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it so that Macron's best hope is if he is up against Le Pen, and vice versa is also true?

[MRCVzla]

I'm watching from the 3éme circonscription pour les Français établis hors de France.
(...)
Represented by LREM. I believe we voted Hollande before that.
I can't find the results for the Europeans by constituency abroad; but all French abroad kept up good scores for LREM, also good for the Greens; average for LR; awful for Le Pen/Bardella. (Perhaps someone has these?) Amusingly, LREM won in Saint-Denis with only 15% of the vote, so many minor left wing parties were there.

They already passed a link before, but this is other link where you can download the results of the past European elections even by FPTP constituencies. Even if they're only with raw data, doing some calculations, the results for that constituency were:
Renaissance/LREM alliance 39.97%
EELV alliance 24.57%
PS alliance 6.75%
LR alliance 5.82%
La France insoumise 4.46%
Generation.s-DiEM25 4.15%
UDI/The Europeans 3.76%
RN 3.16%

As for the presidential election, I prefer to wait for if an independent candidate appears or resurfaces the candidate chosen by the Republicans or the one from the left (probably the Green one) to avoid a Macron-Le Pen 2: Electric Boogaloo that seems to be the most likely scenario according to all polls.

[Geoffrey Howe]

They already passed a link before, but this is other link where you can download the results of the past European elections even by FPTP constituencies. Even if they're only with raw data, doing some calculations, the results for that constituency were:
Renaissance/LREM alliance 39.97%
EELV alliance 24.57%
PS alliance 6.75%
LR alliance 5.82%
La France insoumise 4.46%
Generation.s-DiEM25 4.15%
UDI/The Europeans 3.76%
RN 3.16%

Ah, thanks for this. I once saw some data down to the bureau de vote (in London there are two; one in Harrow, and one in the consulate in Kensington) - do you know where that can be accessed?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Is it so that Macron's best hope is if he is up against Le Pen, and vice versa is also true?

I think I saw some polls with Le Pen beating the Hidalgo (PS) and beating by a large margin Mélenchon. Don't know whether to take them at face value, but they suggest she would be better off facing the left.
As for Macron, I suspect she is the best candidate to be against; unpalatable to much of the electorate - that is many simply will not vote for anyone in a Macron/Le Pen runoff, whereas they might actively vote for someone else against Macron - and perhaps people are beginning to tire of her.

[parochial boy]

IIRC Fillon's best results abroad were from Israel. May I ask who you supported in the last election? Mélenchon? Hamon? Macron, subsequently to be disappointed?

I supported Hamon, rather naïvely in retrospect. Were the situation of 2017 to repeat itself, I would pretty easily support Poutou as a firt option, on the basis he seems like the only figure on the left to have any integrity. Unfortunately, he's rules himself out of standing next year, so it's back to the drawing board - basically anyone on the left, but hopefully not Jadot in practice.

Did you vote last time round?

[Geoffrey Howe]

IIRC Fillon's best results abroad were from Israel. May I ask who you supported in the last election? Mélenchon? Hamon? Macron, subsequently to be disappointed?

I supported Hamon, rather naïvely in retrospect. Were the situation of 2017 to repeat itself, I would pretty easily support Poutou as a firt option, on the basis he seems like the only figure on the left to have any integrity. Unfortunately, he's rules himself out of standing next year, so it's back to the drawing board - basically anyone on the left, but hopefully not Jadot in practice.

Did you vote last time round?

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

[parochial boy]

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

Yeah, there are a lot of things I don't like about him, even if there are quite a few people in LFI I have a more positive opinion of. I would be more prepared to support him this time round though, because the situation seems more desperate and he seems to compare (much) less badly relative to other figure than he did 5 years ago.

Is it a citizenship issue why you can't vote? I've no idea what the French rules wrt voting abroad are, but I don't think there is a time limit like other countries have

[Geoffrey Howe]

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

Yeah, there are a lot of things I don't like about him, even if there are quite a few people in LFI I have a more positive opinion of. I would be more prepared to support him this time round though, because the situation seems more desperate and he seems to compare (much) less badly relative to other figure than he did 5 years ago.

Is it a citizenship issue why you can't vote? I've no idea what the French rules wrt voting abroad are, but I don't think there is a time limit like other countries have

You seem quite anti-Macron; would you vote Bertrand over Macron? With the latter's shift to the right, I don't really know what the difference between them is. Generally I don't understand the non-Le Pen right who are still anti-Macron.

[parochial boy]

You seem quite anti-Macron; would you vote Bertrand over Macron? With the latter's shift to the right, I don't really know what the difference between them is. Generally I don't understand the non-Le Pen right who are still anti-Macron.

No, age 

Ah, eventually then

I woud vote blanc in a Macron v Bertrand second round - I'm a bit too lazy right now to explain fully why; but basically horror at his economic policies, attitude towards minorities, attemps to discredit and censor left wing thought combined with the pure arrogance of thinking that he is somehow entitled to left wing votes in a second round. I very much resent being blackmailed in that way.

Bertrand's electorate I think essentially consists of old people to be honest. Basically people who don't like the more progressive sides of Macron's outlook (the pro-europeanism, rhetoric about feminism etc...) but also don't like the perceived extremism of Le Pen (ie, they're old enough to remember the father). Bertrand has a much more classical conservative profile (ie themes like "the value of work" or "authority"), which seems like it still has an electorate willing to back it.

I don't think I'd be to excited about his prospects just yet though, even if he seems to have a certain electorate right now, there's a degree of "blank page" about him. Never underestimate the sheer degree to which French politics is motivated by complete disdain for everything and everyone. And as hinted above, he is also very weak outside of the certain demographic (older and wealthier) that seems to be behind him at the moment

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.