French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382606195349983234?s=19

Also the whole "who would vote Bertrand/random centrist from the traditional French Left family when Macron exists" question epitomises what the main factors really are in this election and how it is the most psephologically-speaking tabula rasa one since De Gaulle. Macron incarnates whatever you want him to be, whether it is a saviour or a pariah. And people will vote according to their personal view of his character or what they want him to be - whether its inner city Paris or a village in Centre. He is insanely lucky the next candidate still has Le Pen in their family name as that's about the only other last name that provokes such a split of opinion. Otherwise this election would be a referendum on Macron, and not like the Sarkozy 2012 one where it still followed patterns related to their political families.  

But overall I don't see how the old cleavages and vote banks will persist. If LR run a more Orleanist candidate, doubly so.

[Zinneke]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win? 

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

wut

[Zinneke]

Barnier has a book out. Not strange timing given its about Brexit,but still...

[Zinneke]

Yeah the French obsession of staying in the game despite failing is costing a lot of potential to a formation like RN, never mind Mélenchon single handedly doing his best to destroy any chance of a left-wing candidate going through to the second round (when the opportunity is there).

French politicians needs to realise the pace of society has changed, that people become old news much more quickly, and that its not necessarily a terrible Trostkyite thing to renew your political class every so often. Macron actually understood and still understands that - its why I can see him serving a second term and then swiftly moving on, despite his Jupiterian complex. 

Btw - it turns out 80% of France's millionaires are millionaires because of inheritance. Trickle down economics everyone!

[Zinneke]

Eric Zemmour is open to running. Could hurt Panzergirl.

[Zinneke]

Macron has been assaulted (slapped) at a high school where there was a protest. Royalist slogans were heard.

[Zinneke]

That is a beautiful signature, ngl.

[Zinneke]

Since I know some French, I want to follow French politics. Is there any websites/posts that can help me understand French politics? It doesn't matter if the websites are in English or French.

For me a good daily source of info on the pure political machinations is the POLITIO Paris playbook :

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/playbook-paris/

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

Montebourg too. Between these two, Roussel, Jadot (presumably), Méluche and the Trots it’s a bit of a roflmao style fail on the left unity front. Odds on not a single left candidate hitting double figures?

Jadot and Piolle are kickstarting the rentrée politique by clashing at the EELV summer university. After Piolle's declarations last week i think i prefer Jadot.

Also it will be interesting to see where JLM gets his signatures if Roussel runs. PCF still had the clout to get him over the line last time out.

[Zinneke]

So as parochial and I were discussing there was the EELV conference and we neglected to include the 3 other candidates for the EELV nomination of sorts :

Delphine Batho is a Hollande government “veteran” despite being youngish for French politics, with a strong mediatic profile, and who is a bit outside the EELV bubble and has policies to match. She is against policies like the carbon tax and is a bit of a populist as such, trying to eat away at the remnant of social democracy in France. She’s also very... forceful on the laicité question

 

Jean-Marc Governatori is a Niçois that represents the most centrist current in EELV with a strong belief that ecology shouldn’t be restricted to a left or right dichotomy. He claimed in his speech he is less interested in blaming Macron, Brussels and whoever for issues and instead wants ecology to become a political ideology of personal responsibility. He wants to add 1 million jobs in the agricultural sector and decentralise France.

 

Sandrine Rousseau is the “ecofeminist” candidate, who links every ecological issue with feminism. She is seen as the dark horse to take on the two mainstream EELV favorites Jadot and Piolle. She received strong support during her speech and is seen as a typical militant, so she could upset the EELV internal dynamics and decisions that are notoriously hard to see coming. Being slightly less cranky that the Rivasi types (that are usually popular with EELV militants) helps her electability.

 

Jadot and Piolle are still favorites, and openly admit that their programs are similar but that they have different styles. For those wondering why Jadot is unpopular with the Left of the Left, one of the reasons was his attendance of a pro-police protest. He defended himself saying he was asked by CGT and other left-wing police unions (apparently they exist) to come to it and not leave them with just RN/LR figures. He’s also seen as a bit of a “high politics” guy who doesn’t get his hands dirty.

 

I personally prefer Jadot to Piolle because Jadot has shown himself to have good political instincts and to be a good speaker, and I’m sick and tired of the losing mentality on the Left in Europe in general. Piolle does have a potentially better track record of actual governance in public functions. But last week he was going on about how he was the incarnation of the entire french left and he generally has a very high opinion of himself according to some. You could say Jadot does too, but then Jadot’s humility was back up by his decision not to run in 2017. When you look at the state of the Left now and its petty factionalism, Jadot actually backed up a willingness to “clear the field” with actions rather than words. He’s a pragamatist rather than an ideologue or a careerist.

To sum up I think in terms of electability :

Jadot
Piolle
Batho/Governatori
Rousseau


In terms of “Presidential” feel :

Piolle
Jadot
Batho
Governatori
Rousseau
 

In terms of similarity in terms of profile with the grassroots :

Rousseau
Piolle
Governatori
Jadot/Batho
 

Those are the 3 variables I think will decide the contest.

 

[Zinneke]

Zemmour would have to give up his media slots if he runs. Thats in fact why he is probably hesitating.

[Zinneke]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Barnier said he wants to stop non-EU immigration completely for a period of time.

[Zinneke]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

Oh, I'll vote for Jadot or whomever else the best-positioned left-leaning candidate ends up being. It's not like I can be particularly demanding right now.

Really? I mean, Jadot is the worst sort of left - elitist, shallow and without a single social fibre in his body. Considering that the left seems to determined to go into this election more fractured than ever, and has essentially no chance of getting a candidate to the second round, I would imagine this would be the time to go with a values vote in the hopes of the better leftist factions getting an at least comparatively better score.

Although, in that respect, all the likely mainstream left candidates are dreadful. So ymmv in any case

Yeah but again this is what I mean when I say the Left has a losing mentality in France. Ruling out a candidate because he’s an NGO type (new to the European left?), because he attended a police demo and because he once said he thinks there’s a place for the market in modern economic policy. Like sure you can criticise him for this, but its just nitpicking when there’s an overall bigger struggle and the rule of the game. Jadot is actually the most logical, presentable candidate if you are just looking for a “vague Left”.


All that being said, I draw the line at the dictator-lover Mélenchon who said Russia and China hadn’t invaded a single country in the past 200 years (lmfao) and called the invasion of Tibet a liberation of Tibetans from a theocratic regime. THAT for me is a red line, because if I were French I wouldn’t want the guy with his finger on the nuclear button to first have to call his creditors in Russia and China.


But yeah Jadot "the worst sort of Left" because he attended a police demo once. I think there are far worse. And Mélenchon ranks among the lowest for his terrible record of sabotaging the Left so he can go on holiday in Venezuela and increasingly hysterical views and conspiracies.

[Zinneke]

Rachida Dati is fancying a run (another deadbeat to add to the list) but, more interestingly, wrote an opinion piece warning the non-FN Right to not go down the road of a primary, favoring a free for all until some point in the campaign (January). This may be how it works due to primaries being no seen as outdated and not selecting ideal candidates.

Also Ségolène Royale has endorsed Hidalgo. But yeah no one cares lol.

[Zinneke]

no further comment

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is officially in but I had to switch off for her speech because it was just about vague "respect between each other" stuff - tedious Olivier Faure was given a backing by PS members to continue on as Sec Gen of the party and will likely try to organise some sort of primary.

In other news though, the vaccine pass manifestations are still going strong, and as a blow to Macron Agnes Buzyn has been investigated for negligence while in her role as Health Minister.

[Zinneke]

Mélenchon though, is again proving he is a far better tactical campaigner than most on the Left- he is actually talking about what people want to hear about (something the PS have basically given up on doing), such as the Covid Pass, and has a way of in general bending his views to suit certain narratives. He ran the best tactical campaign last time out too (handily made up the most ground out of all the candidates during the official campaign). What lets him down is a lack of general strategy and total egomania/paranoia.

His main issue will be getting enough signatures without the support of Communist mayors. In the end if he reaches that I firmly expect him to be a thorn in any other left-wing candidate's side.

[Zinneke]

People were afraid that this was a far right entryism job (Rousseau is basically their favorite whipping girl and a perfect caricature). For me it's either a deliberate attempt to put forward a crap candidate like they did with Eva Joly so that the PS/DVG one gets more momentum but the EELV don't lose face/get called a puppet party. Or its simply the crank wing acting up again, which given they had Rivasi as second on the European lists, is also entirely possible.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

And yet somehow Darmamin on the other channel managed to be more xenophobic.

Le Pen suffers from Zemmour but crucially, and this is his thesis, so does the LR right. Zemmour is aiming for the Sarkozyste traditionaliste bourgeois + popular classes alliance. It makes a lot of sense that hes attracting the former. We had that type of classmate who bought Mélancolie Francaise and shilled for Sarkozy (yes even in Belgium). Its not just an ideas thing, Zemmour lives the pop-philosopher lifestyle they want, 28 year old Enarque mistress included, while lecturing about Western decadence.

[Zinneke]

Manuel Valls suggests "republicans" must come up with a "drastic change" to the immigration system, including suspension of family reunions if they want people to vote for them.

In other news, LR primary will be in December but Bertrand still doesn't want to participate. He has the highest poll numbers from that side.

Did Valls have any other suggestions other than suspending family reunions?

And also, I'm not sure what exactly that entails? Like I think most Western expats with families move here with their families at the same time, would that count? Or is that another procedure?

Depends what you mean by Western, but yes it is the same procedure that the "Valls Left" want to tighten.

Its a veiled attack at French Morrocans/ Algerians and I guess some sub-saharan africans who still have arranged marriages and thus marry back home having never met the person then repatriate them. You also have fake sons and daughters who have their IDs forged etc. Basically the idea is to tighten the legislation so that these arranged marriages are not incentivised and you have to have proof you lived together and married back in your home country or something like that.

I am not defending Valls or the others  because its clear it is again a case by case issue and they want to solve it with very broad strokes targeting specific nationalities without saying so . However, having lived and worked in environments where you see the cynicism of some people traffickers first hand, its not an issue that can be ignored either. (expecting another wave of D-XX avatars to parrot the standard cultural relativist line).



Anyway, im pleased Jadot one. He'll improve the level of discourse hopefully.

[Zinneke]

I'd add to what parochial boy said to the difference between LR and Macron : Macron might be a shameless neo-liberal who sells off state assets and keeps the pensioners happy, he still occasionally throws some bones to the Millenial/Gen Z (mostly just by preserving PS schemes to help them get on the labour market). An LR administration would almost certainly completely disregard the young and it allows Macron to get a semblance of a young electorate, even if his core electorate is still old. I also think LR engage in light euroscepticism and climate skepticism where Macron on both issues, at least in his communication, is pretty positive. Lastly, something only a few picked up from the LREM/Macron phenomenon, is that while Macron did identify and exploit a sense political decay in France, he sold a positive message, whereas LR tend to be nostalgic and push the "France in decline" narrative using only the past as a horizon. Zemmour is also like this and it will be his downfall.

I am really curious though how a Macron vs Bertrand/Pecresse map would look like though. I think we'll see some pretty strange results in some parts.

[Zinneke]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

Maybe wait till the election before making such generalizations. There is a reason he's on roughly 13%. There's this generalized hype about France heading towards the fascist precipice from the Anglo-Saxon media, but then which were the two-three countries who did elect RWPPs or people to power? It wouldn't be the 3 that signed a certain defence deal recently, would it?

Anyway, France's decline is steady. I actually think someone like Onfray (before he became a caricature of himself, which is what TV exposure does to you) holds views that are more in line with the general population's views than Zemmour. Increasing disassociation from the democratic exercise in France, belief that France is at the center of a vortex of Western civilizational decay that is irreversible, belief that the only way to go through it is to stay dignified in light of what Americans jere would call the "clown world". Still left-wing on a lot of the bread and butter issues, but resolutely anti-woke and wanting only controlled immigration. Of the two intellectuals Onfray was the one regularly touted to try to get into politics but he refuses and basically is a leading light in the people who just vote white, the abstentionnistes convaincus that Coluche joked about. They are probably far more representative of median France than Zemmour.

[Zinneke]

Zemmour is Algerian Jewish in origin, so it's a bit complicated (and Méluche is Moroccan born, there are loads about).

What's particularly, umm, weird is that Zemmour is also an ardent defender of Pétain and Maurice Papon and reckons they didn't merely do nothing wrong, but were actually in the right vis-à-vis how Jewish people were treated by the Vichy régime. Which would already be frightening enough in it's own right.

Zemmour peddles with the theory that Petain gave up foreign Jews to save French Jews and that was fulfilling his job description. I mean it's textbook political comm 101. Make a.controversial statement, make the media hype happen then seek to clarify, putting water into your wine. Vlaams Belang and Baudet do this.

Zemmour really is just overcompensating for a lot of things though. His height. His "tête de juif maghrébin". His foreign origins (I actually wouldn't call him pied noir) in general. The fact that had he not dropped out at one of those elite schools he'd probably be some LR politician's party trick to wheel out to say "hey look at my Supersmart assistant".

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them. Very good communicators though.

[Zinneke]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/edouard-philippe-devoile-horizons-son-nouveau-parti-20211009

Edouard Philippe has launched his own party.