French presidential election, 2022

[Agafin]

I've been reading some of Melenchon's social media comments (twitter and facebook) and he really seems like the only major presidential candidate who is actually anti-imperialist. If my feed is anything to go by, that makes him really popular with my fellow africans (those who care about french politics that is) but I assume that also partly explains why he is so politically toxic to the point of losing badly even against Le Pen. He has no filter Like, him calling out Macron's hypocrisy on legitimizing the current chadian president who effectively committed a coup is quite refreshing but at the same time, a diplomatic faux pas. He really is some leftwing version of Trump.

Something tells me that if France had ethnic or racial polling (like the UK or the US), he'd be ahead #1 with ethnic minorities and immigrants, especially black ones (but way down with whites and native born french).

[Agafin]

I've just realised that Zemmour is an all-around right-winger. Unlike LePen who seems to skirt with a lot of leftwing/pro-worker economic policies (like a lot of these far-right European politicians do), he seems to be fiscally conservative in addition to his social and cultural conservatism.

What I wonder is, does that make him a more fringe candidate or does that help him? The left will probably hate him even more than they hae LePen but what about Les républicains ? Le Pen has always polled terribly with older voters (who are the most reliable demographic and a solidly republican group if Fillon's 2017 vote is anything to go by) whereas I assume Zemmour's flavor of conservatism might appeal to them more. He is effectively a more extreme version of Sarkozy.

[Agafin]

When are the primaries of the right going to be held? And who of Pécresse and Xavier is favoured? I'm out of the loop.

[Agafin]

It’d be interesting to see what a Le Pen cabinet might look like, there’s not exactly a plethora of talent in RN so she’d probably have to reach out to Zemmour & LR types, but would she even want them if they don’t back her in R2?

https://www.ft.com/content/1d2bb0f0-a219-42e7-9ba9-634bdd11c396

Marine Le Pen open to appointing leftists if she wins French presidency

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen has said she is open to appointing leftwingers in her government if she is elected French president later this month.

Le Pen, who has already held out the prospect of a “government of national unity”, said on Thursday that while she would “probably not” work with hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she could work with leftists such as those who follow Jean-Pierre Chevènement, a former interior minister under Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin.

Whether you believe it, is up to you.

[Agafin]

In other news, Taubira decides to back Mélenchon. This is a little surprising to me, she seems much more fiscally liberal (in the classical sense) than him. Hidalgo can't catch a break.

[Agafin]

28 Macron
 24 Le Pen

And 20 for Mélenchon which is quite the surge. Almost double from where he was 2 months ago.

[Agafin]

Aren't the overseas results a little scary? I know they are not the same as the mainland but they were the first piece of information that foreshadowed Mélenchon overperforming his polling two weeks ago.

[Agafin]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean? almost all Overseas Departments?

Probably the same reason Melenchon did good there in round 1. The overseas communities each face unique issues right now that stem from isolation from the Metropole, issues that aren't getting answered well. This results in a feeling among residents that they are ignored, left behind, or aren't valued. Obviously Melenchon was the preferred candidate who appeared to have the solutions, but if you are going to rage against the system, then you don't go Macron.

Interesting.

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

[Agafin]

So it looks like just like in America, ethnic minority voters are not as scared of voting for the far right as before (see: Trump gains with minorities).

a) Other than in New Caledonia (and the two white territories, where the vote in question would be unimportant), non-white voters in overseas territories would not have reason to regard themselves as ethnic minorities.
Well, the same could be said of the Rio Grande Valley which is rather insular and something like 90-95% Hispanic. I'm sure most of them don't really consider themselves as minorities within their local communities. They are still ethnic minorities in the larger picture of American electorate though. Same with the "Antillais" in France.
b) Overseas territories overwhelmingly cast their vote in the first round for the candidate of the left.
Hispanics also overwhelmingly voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Biden's poor performance with them carried over to the general, same with Macron.
c) The choice offered in the second round was between a candidate of the right and a candidate of the far right, which would seem to limit its applicability to any other situations save those with a similar choice.
Good thing then that we already had this exact same situation five years ago so we can easily see the trends. Macron was getting 65-75% of the vote against Lepen in these same overseas territories he's getting trounced in. Something obviously must have changed. There seems to be no stigma at all with being a national rally supporter there right now.

Not everything needs to be part of a world-historical narrative about whatever was read into the results of the last American election. Sometimes different things are different.
I agree with you but I do think that Lepen winning 60-70% of the vote in various majority black constituencies is absolutely noteworthy no matter who her opponent is.