🇪🇪 Estonia elections & politics megathread: Presidential (Aug./Sep.) & Local (Oct.) elections

[Astatine]

Estonia's government has toppled over a corruption scandal and it seems possible that Estons will be forced to go to the polls in spring.

In the 2019 general elections, the center-right liberal Reform Party became largest force, ahead of the agrarian Center Party. Biggest winner was the EKRE Party, a far-right nationalist party. Other parties in Parliament are the conservative Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party, while the social liberal E200 party failed the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

Before the election, Center leader and Prime Minister Jüri Ratas excluded any cooperation with EKRE, so Reform leader Kaja Kallas was poised to become the country's first female PM. Ratas effectively broke his promise and formed a coalition with EKRE and Isaama, which he led until today.

The coalition seemed quite unpopular and especially former EKRE leader Martin Helme turned out to be the enfant terrible of the coalition, for instance by insulting Finnish PM Sanna Marin as "salesgirl ". EKRE clashed regularly with President Kersti Kaljulaid, the last time over a proposed referendum that would ban same-sex marriage from the constitution. Kaljulaid wanted to make it binding, meaning that if the government loses the referendum, it would be forced to resign.

Now, the Center Party itself is a suspect in a major corruption investigation, having led to Ratas' resignation. Kaljulaid assigned Kaja Kallas with the formation of new government, but it seems questionable whether she's able to do so. Polling suggests that all three coalition parties have suffered from being part of the relatively unpopular government, and Kallas already hinted that they might protect their majority at all costs. But maybe Center wants to avoid another government with EKRE that would sink the party even further, preferring snap elections or a 'grand coalition'.

So, we'll see how that turns out. I guess at this point it can be said that it's almost inevitable that Kaja Kallas will become PM at some point, the only question is when and with whom as coalition partner.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Great. Jüri Ratas has always seemed terrible to me. Well, mostly because of his deliberate association with the absolute kooks that are Mart Helme and his son Martin. I vividly remember the incident of his remark to Sanna Marin. And it's far from the worst they've said! Seriously, they're threatening.

I don't expect Kaja Kallas to be someone I exactly agree with, but she definitely deserves to be Head Minister given the polling, and hopefully she is not going to ally with EKRE.

RIP the Social Democrats. Still below 10% in the polls. What a sad state.
Instead I've noticed that Estonia 200 has really soared in the polls. Certainly interesting to see whether and how it will impact the political system if snap elections are called and it enters the Riigikogu. Also apparently its leader is called Kristina Kallas... is she related to Kaja Kallas?

[Mike88]

What are the details of the scandal? From what I've read all surrounds a loan to Porto Franco real estate (a Brazilian company?) by the State.

[Astatine]

https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

Thank you! The writing style of the article is pretty engaging.

My favourite coalition would be Reform-Isamaa-SDE, of course, because EKRE doesn't belong in any sane government and Centre deserves to be booted out, but I realize it would be ideologically awkward. Honestly Estonia should probably just go to new elections.

[as an aside, I also found an article about the Kallas' and no, they are not in fact related]

[Astatine]

https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

Thank you! The writing style of the article is pretty engaging.

My favourite coalition would be Reform-Isamaa-SDE, of course, because EKRE doesn't belong in any sane government and Centre deserves to be booted out, but I realize it would be ideologically awkward. Honestly Estonia should probably just go to new elections.

Yeah, I agree. Honestly, I'd root for a Reform-E200-SDE coalition after the elections, Isamaa was as responsible as Center in letting EKRE into the government (although they're less corrupt).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

Thank you! The writing style of the article is pretty engaging.

My favourite coalition would be Reform-Isamaa-SDE, of course, because EKRE doesn't belong in any sane government and Centre deserves to be booted out, but I realize it would be ideologically awkward. Honestly Estonia should probably just go to new elections.

Yeah, I agree. Honestly, I'd root for a Reform-E200-SDE coalition after the elections, Isamaa was as responsible as Center in letting EKRE into the government (although they're less corrupt).

Honestly, I would agree with you. That seems the least bad plausible coalition to come out of new elections. Right now there's also a distinct possibility that Isamaa may not make it to the next Riigikogu, it is polling dangerously close to the 5% threshold.
But we'll see, things could change unexpectedly.

[bigic]

There probably won't be a snap election. Reform is negotiating a new coalition with Centre. It's an unusual coalition, but it won't be the first one - this was the governing coalition for a while in the early 2000s.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/24/estonia-politics-kaja-kallas-to-become-baltic-nation-s-first-female-prime-minister

Apparently Centre and Reform have struck a deal for a Kallas government. Ratas won't be part of the new cabinet but the article says "Local media reported earlier that he could become the parliamentary speaker in March." which is hilariously bad.

[Estrella]

After I noticed that basically every party in Estonia has at some point been in a coalition with every other party, I decided to make this list of all Estonian governments since the fall of USSR:

Edgar Savisaar (1991—1992) interim
Tiit Vähi I (1992) interim
Mart Laar (1992—1994) Isamaa+ERSP+SDE
Andres Tarand (1994—1995) SDE+Isamaa+ERSP+small parties
Tiit Vähi II (1995) KMÜ+Centre
Tiit Vähi III (1995—1997) KMÜ+Reform+Development
Mart Siiman (1997—1999) KMÜ+Development
Mart Laar II (1999—2002) Isamaa+Reform+SDE
Siim Kallas (2002—2003) Reform+Centre
Juhan Parts (2003—2005) Isamaa+Reform+Rahvaliit
Andrus Ansip I (2005—2007) Reform+Centre+Rahvaliit
Andrus Ansip IIA (2007—2009) Reform+Isamaa+SDE
Andrus Ansip IIB (2009—2011) Reform+Isamaa
Andrus Ansip III (2011—2014) Reform+Isamaa
Taavi Rõivas I (2014—2015) Reform+SDE
Taavi Rõivas II (2015—2016) Reform+SDE+Isamaa
Jüri Ratas I (2016—2019) Centre+SDE+Isamaa
Jüri Ratas II (2019—2021) Centre+EKRE+Isamaa
Kaja Kallas (2021—) Reform+Centre

A note on the parties:
Reform — centre-right liberal conservatives
Centre — populists, socons, de facto party of the ~25% Russian minority
Social Democrats (SDE) — socially liberal moderate heroes, includes their predecessors, Mõõdukad (Moderates)
Isamaa — right-wing national conservatives, includes the bazillion similarly named parties that split and merged until they created what it is today
Conservative People's Party (EKRE) — far-right nutcases
People's Union (Rahvaliit) — pseudo-leftist populists
Development — centrist moderate heroes
Coalition Party and Rural People's Association (KMÜ) — an incoherent big-tent alliance
ERSP — right-wing nationalists

[Astatine]

Thanks Estrella for the great overview!

For the record: Edgar Savisaar, the country's first PM, was one of the founding members of the Center Party and served as mayor of Tallinn for 11 years in total.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Conservative People's Party (EKRE) — far-right nutcases

Too kind of a description here.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In a little bit of update, I would note that EKRE has made sizable gains in the polls since the Ratas cabinet dissolved (together with the Reform Party it seems, while pretty much everyone else has been on some kind of a downward trajectory as of late). Nothing good can come out of this.

[Astatine]

Revived this thread, since tomorrow presidential elections will take place.

The Estonian Parliament needs to choose the country's new head of state with a 2/3 majority (68/101 members), and the incumbent government (59 seats) of Reform and Center Party has nominated academic Alar Karis for the office. A candidate needs 21 MPs to support their candidacy - Neither incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid nor a proposed EKRE candidate acquired this threshold.

Kaljulaid would've liked to serve for another term, and the Estonians would've probably supported that, but her outspokenness about several issues in this ceremonial office was not well received by Reform nor Center. The Social Democrats would've supported her candidacy, but they don't have enough seats.

It's still not a safe bet that Karis achieves a majority, which could lead to the 2 more voting rounds in Parliament. If those fail, an electoral college with 208 members would have to choose a new head of state - where Kaljulaid, at least in theory, could be nominated again.

[Astatine]

Isamaa leader Helir-Vardor Seemer was hospitalized with Covid-19. Together with Reform MP Siim Kallas, father of PM Kaja Kallas, two out of 101 MPs will not be attending the presidential vote today, making it less likely Alar Karis gets a majority in the first round today.

[Astatine]

After Karis received 62 votes in the first ballot yesterday, he managed to get a 2/3-majority in the second ballot today with u2 votes. That means he will assume his office as President in October, and the government was spared of an embarrassing scenario like in 2016 with multiple voting rounds swapping between Parliament and electoral college.

[Flyersfan232]

Going to say this again if you’re head of state is a figurehead rather it be a monarchy but since there no support for that in Estonia any possibility of the president being elected by the people at all?

[MRCVzla]

Sorry for revive this, but important news happened in the last days/weeks, Kallas evicted Centre off the government in early June and she will form a new coalition with Isamaa and SDE (confirmed last week), she formally resigned to the President today and tomorrow will be a extraordinary session in the Riigikogu to vote the new cabinet.

https://twitter.com/EstoniaVotes/status/1532692902211624960
https://twitter.com/EstoniaVotes/status/1545417561789046784
https://twitter.com/EstoniaVotes/status/1547476154264834048

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What sparked Centre being kicked out of the government?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have zero background on what caused this but Centre being kicked out of government is good and should have happened when the Ratas cabinet fell.