French presidential election, 2022

[Velasco]

just one poll, but let's be honest - the Communist candidate drawing level with the PS one is pretty hysterical.

The fact that they're level at 3%... Well, Jean Jaurès will be spinning in his grave

Which word is more descriptive, "depressing" or "disheartening"?

[Velasco]

In the end he's disqualified and therefore he loses, but anyway Melenchon scored a string of 'moral victories'

https://twitter.com/Brevesdepresse/status/1513413043744559106?t=59WOej5gmhlKbS_6...

[Velasco]

lol Zemmour is being investigated because his campaign made a list of all French jews and he bought a list of their phone numbers to target them for his campaign.

Is he antisemitist?

As stated above he got a lot of support in israel so I'd *assume* not.

Yes he is a self hating antisémite. Holocaust Denier and uncle Tom (or I think the correct term is a Kapo). But obviously for strategic reasons public enemy number 1 must remain Muslims and Arabs.

Are you implying Zemmour's islamophobia is not genuine? Lol

Describing Zemmour as a "self hating Jew" is a bit dumb and simplistic, imo. As far as I know Eric Zemmour does not deny his Jewish identity. The point is that Zemmour is a (far-right,  racist, extreme) French nationalist who believes France is the supteme value. In other words, Zemmour puts his Frenchiness ahead of his Jewishness. The former belongs to the public sphere andcthe latter belongs to the private sphere. In Zemmour's mind, any kind of particularism (ethnic or regional identity) is enemy of the Nation, which is One and Indivisible. Regional separatism and interests separated from those of the French Nation are unacceptable in Zemmour's view. In that regard, I see him as a far-right Jacobin

It's not surprising at all the success of a far-right islamophobic nationalist of Jewish heritage in Israel

[Velasco]

lol Zemmour is being investigated because his campaign made a list of all French jews and he bought a list of their phone numbers to target them for his campaign.

Is he antisemitist?

As stated above he got a lot of support in israel so I'd *assume* not.

Yes he is a self hating antisémite. Holocaust Denier and uncle Tom (or I think the correct term is a Kapo). But obviously for strategic reasons public enemy number 1 must remain Muslims and Arabs.

Are you implying Zemmour's islamophobia is not genuine? Lol

Describing Zemmour as a "self hating Jew" is a bit dumb and simplistic, imo. As far as I know Eric Zemmour does not deny his Jewish identity. The point is that Zemmour is a (far-right,  racist, extreme) French nationalist who believes France is the supteme value. In other words, Zemmour puts his Frenchiness ahead of his Jewishness. The former belongs to the public sphere andcthe latter belongs to the private sphere. In Zemmour's mind, any kind of particularism (ethnic or regional identity) is enemy of the Nation, which is One and Indivisible. Regional separatism and interests separated from those of the French Nation are unacceptable in Zemmour's view. In that regard, I see him as a far-right Jacobin

It's not surprising at all the success of a far-right islamophobic nationalist of Jewish heritage in Israel

No, you are right, Zemmour's character was formed by his family's background and so his Islamophobia is genuine. He believes that because Algeria under the FLN expelled pieds noirs and Jews that all Arabs are like that. But what I meant was his ascendancy is convenient given French political discourse is veering towards that rhetoric. They mention how halal butchers are taking over but nothing against ultra-Orthodx Haredi who self-segregate.

But I do think there is a lot of inner self hatred there. Not only of himself, just look at what an absolute pipsqueak the guy was in certain debates stuttering and chundering like a total beta. But also of his community ; Zemmour would be the kind of Israeli "nationalist" that despises 60-70% of Israel's population. In the end he thought that Petain was justified in giving foreign Jews, and saving French ones. So he would have been a Kapo, 100% he would have betrayed fellow Jews to save his own personalist political ambitions in such a scenario. So this man is an anti-Semite.

I think a promient example of this was his attempt to both-sides the Dreyus Affair and claim there is serious doubt about his innocence.

Rather than 'self-hatred', I think the Dreyfuss affair creates a 'conflict of interest ' in Zemmour and his French reactionary nationalist self prevails

On the other hand, Zemmour got more than 40% of the vote in the most 'liberal' place of Israel. It's not surprising at all, given the prevalence of ethnic nationalism and islamophobia in that constituency. Either 'jacobin' or ethnically based, exclusive forms of nationalism are reactionary by definition.  

[Velasco]

That's misleading all the vote is counted as if it's from Tel Avi but that's only because the French Embassy is located there. The actual voters are scattered around Israel.

I think the tweet said results were from Tel Aviv (the polling place at the embassy, I suppose) and they were waiting reports from consulates in other towns, but anyway.

I take advantage to give my five cents on Mélenchon, not on the character but on his performance and the possible lessons we can learn from this.

Regardless Mélenchon failed to qualify for the second round,  it was by a narrow margin and in the end he got a pretty decent result that surpassed previous expectations. This result, in addition to the combined vote of minor candidates (Jadot, Roussel, Hidalgo...), proves that the left is neither dead nor in excellent shape. I think there are some rays of light and some positive elements, concerning the platform of Mélenchon and the existence of a young base of support. For instance the proposal for a VI Republic that overcomes 'monarchic ' presidentialism is very interesting. In my opinion the left must focus on the advocacy for social justice, fixing the environmental disaster and promoting democracy in all orders of life. More democracy,  "environmental justice"and better wealth redistribution are goals impossible to achieve acting on a national level, so I think the advocacy for a more democratic and multilateral international order is absolutely neccessary (but that's another question and possibly I would disagree with Mélenchon on many issues here). My point is that Mélenchon was succesful identifying some issues at the core of social unrest. The problem is how to articulate a more democratic and 'horizontal' movement beyond cults of personality that is able to bring together a broad base of support. Personally I am not very optimistic about the evolution of politics and society in the near future, because I think we are evolving to less democratic forms of government and more unequal societies. However and from a leftist/progressive point of view, I think we cannot give up the fight for a more just and sustainable socioeconomic order on a livable planet

[Velasco]

You're once again reaching and strawmaning to justify your thesis of "liberal Zionists are the real traitors".

What?

Thank you for the insights on the demographics of French Israelis, but you are mistakenly assuming I was referring to sime sort of "liberal zionism". On the one hand, at this point it's impossible to me discussing seriously about absurd oxymorons. I don't know examples of liberal democracies with millions of disenfranchised subjects submitted to a regime of domination. On the other hand, my actual conclusion is that zionism is a form of exclusive ethnic nationalism, which is not very compatible with thenotion of liberalism. Another question is that many people claim to be "liberal", like that champion of liberal democracy in Russia called Zhirinovsky  I just said it doesn't surprise me the success of someone like Zemmour in an environment dominated by ethnic nationalism and islamophobia

[Velasco]

You're once again reaching and strawmaning to justify your thesis of "liberal Zionists are the real traitors".

What?

Thank you for the insights on the demographics of French Israelis, but you are mistakenly assuming I was referring to sime sort of "liberal zionism". On the one hand, at this point it's impossible to me discussing seriously about absurd oxymorons. I don't know examples of liberal democracies with millions of disenfranchised subjects submitted to a regime of domination. On the other hand, my actual conclusion is that zionism is a form of exclusive ethnic nationalism, which is not very compatible with thenotion of liberalism. Another question is that many people claim to be "liberal", like that champion of liberal democracy in Russia called Zhirinovsky  I just said it doesn't surprise me the success of someone like Zemmour in an environment dominated by ethnic nationalism and islamophobia

No Israeli subjects are disenfranchised. The Palestinian Authority is an independent entity -- this was what was agreed to by the 1991 Oslo Accords and what the Arab World itself demanded. Saying that millions of Israelis are disenfranchised because foreign citizens cannot vote in Israeli elections is like saying that millions of Americans are disenfranchised because Canadians cannot vote in American elections.

There is a difference between "citizens" and "subjects" that you are unable to understand. Claiming the Palestinian Authority is an 'independent' entity and invoking the ghost of the Oslo Accords is disingeneous and insulting. The inhabitants nominally under the juridisction of the bantustan PA entity are under the control of the Israeli state, that is annexing formally or de facto a large portion of the Palestinian territories (especially East Jerusalem, the locations of settlements and Area C of the West Bank). There is no Palestinian state and the inhabitants live under the a military regime enforced by the Israeli occupants. For all intents and purposes, those Palestinians are disenfranchised subjects of the State of Israel that controls everything between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea

Anyway the relevant point to this thread is that Israelis love Zemmour.  Bravo

[Velasco]

Macron wins in a landslide anong rhe most affluent, better educated and older chaps. Is this sociologically "mainstream right"?

[Velasco]

Relief and concern. Mixed emotions

Are these vote transfer figures telling anything?

https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1518297462284423168?t=6kq7dwAJmDMyKE_...

[Velasco]

Macron is absolutely "right", if a political line of cutting the welfare state, economic liberalism, cracking down on migrants etc, etc, then you are basically trying to redefine what the right actually is

"Left" and "right" are not meaningful terms in their own right really, they are always defined relatively in terms of where you are and who you are up against. In that sense Macron and LREM are absolutely the center party in France.

Lol no, that ideological relativism is absolutely hollow. "Left" and "right" represent a set of policies, philosophies and worldviews shared by the "leftwing" and "rightwing" constitiencies. I'm not implying these sets of philosophies, beliefs or whatever are rigid and invariable, but there are core elements in them that remain.

It's up to see whether Macron is "rightwing" or "centrist" (I vote for the moderate hero option: "centre-right"), but there is a difference between political "centre" (whatever that word means) and being at the center of the stage. Macron is undoubtedly in a central position in French politics, but this doesn't imply neccessarilly he is exactly in the middle of the ideological spectrum

[Velasco]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

I share some of your toughts about Europe and the democracy. However, are you really tryng to establish a comparison between French and Russian politics? Is LREM equivalent to United Russia,  RN to the LDPR and LFI to the CPRF?

Also, I don't share the parallels that some people draw between far-right and leftwing populisms in Western Europe. In Russia the Putin's party, the LDPR and the communists share a staunch social reactionarism, contrary to progressive causes such as LGBT rights. In Western Europe far-right populists favor policies contrary to the the rights of migrants and other minorities, while leftwing populist parties usually favor inclusive policies. I wouldn't say LFI represents a risk for essential democratic values, despite I don't find Mélenchon pleasant at a personal level and I'm more Europeanist than him