French presidential election, 2022

[Mike88]

Paris is now fully counted.

Adding what is already counted from Marseille and from the Overseas vote, Macron reaches 58.58% and Le Pen 41.42%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

90% counted, Macron at 56.5%. To get to the projections, he'd have to win what's left with 70-75%. Which seems fairly plausible actually.

Yeah, he's currently at 57.4% with not a lot in yet from Marseille and with some of Paris yet to be reported. Plus, a lot of overseas votes are still being counted and Macron is winning by a 85-15% margin.

Paris finished counting and Macron is up to 58.3%. Looks like all that's left is Marseille and the expat vote.

[adma]

This is a pretty good election result. It's nice to see that the far-right didn't come close to victory. Macron also isn't awful, especially compared to the rest of the field. The French party system is still very unstable so every side has some hope next time.

Still, 21-22 mainland Le Pen depts (+ Corsica and the Dom-Toms) vs 2 in '17 gives cause for pause.

[jaichind]

[Oryxslayer]

Marseilles is now in, giving the department to Macron, meaning that the 58.4% nationwide is final excluding the expats  -which are themselves already 70% counted.



Also, I'm just going to assume that eastern section of the city, where Le Pen won arrondissements here and in round 1, is wealthy and historically Pied Noir?

[Cassius]

With Bouches-de-Rhine now in I believe, if my calculations are correct, that Le Pen also wins the PACA region.

Presumably Corsica (the best French region) and Hauts-de-France. I don’t think Le Pen will do as well as people seem to expect, but if she gets 40-45%, which to me is plausible, then she should be winning those two regions. Maybe PACd’A as well, given that the strong Zemmour vote there probably held down her first round total significantly.

For once I didn’t do too badly with the old predictions.

[Mike88]

The Blank and Invalid vote didn't reach historic records: 6.4% for Blank votes and 2.3% for Invalid votes. In 2017, 8.5% of the votes were blank and 3.0% Invalid.

[DavidB.]

When I zoom in to Moselle, I see that most communes have gone to Le Pen, but there is a contiguous north-south corridor for Macron in the Western part, which broadly follows the A31 highway from Luxembourg all the way down south. It contains the area of Metz - it is obvious why it voted for Macron - but also some (post) industrial areas with small towns in the border area (Thionville and surroundings) that voted for Macron quite strongly, which I didn't expect. Does anyone knowledgeable about French politics know why this specific part voted for Macron? It's somewhat counter-intuitive to me. Commuters to Luxembourg, perhaps?

[Mike88]

All of the votes are now counted:

18,779,809 Macron, 58.55%
13,297,728 Le Pen, 41.45%

  2,228,006 Blank votes, 6.35%
     790,997 Invalid votes, 2.25%

35,096,540 Turnout, 71.99%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like the expat votes finished reporting, so these should be the final results:

Macron 38.52% (-5.09 from 2017)
Le Pen 27.28% (+4.92)

Blank 4.57% (-1.78)
Invalid 1.62% (-0.62)
Abstentions 28.01% (+2.57)

Edit: Mike beat me to it so I showed % of registered voters.

[Hash]

Maps by department of the winners and their majorities

[Storr]

The 5% of Le Pen voters in the first round that abstained in the second round seems significant. Is that an unusually large number for a candidate that made it to the second round?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What's so funny to me is that for the past couple of weeks Twitter journalists *cough* Glenn Greenwald *cough* have been babbling nonstop about how Le Pen had the Melenchon voters locked down because she was running to Macron's left on economic issues lol.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

WINNER BY REGION

First round	Second round

[angus]

Can a French speaker help me with this?  I have a question regarding "période de cohabitation" in the following article, which appeared in Le Monde earlier today. 



We use the word "cohabitation" in English to mean "vivre ensemble" but that seems odd here.  The only thing I can think of is that it refers to a political party holding both the national legislature and the presidency simultaneously.  At the moment the REM has the biggest share of seats in the parliament, so this would make sense.  Is that correct?  Thank you.

[Hash]

Can a French speaker help me with this?  I have a question regarding "période de cohabitation" in the following article, which appeared in Le Monde earlier today. 
We use the word "cohabitation" in English to mean "vivre ensemble" but that seems odd here.  The only thing I can think of is that it refers to a political party holding both the national legislature and the presidency simultaneously.  At the moment the REM has the biggest share of seats in the parliament, so this would make sense.  Is that correct?  Thank you.

Yes, cohabitation refers to periods when the president and the lower house/government (led by the prime minister responsible to parliament) are from different political families. There have been three cohabitation periods under the Fifth Republic - 1986-88, 1993-95 and 1997-02. Macron is the only president besides de Gaulle to win reelection without a cohabitation, or with his party controlling the National Assembly/government. Whether or not this makes his victory more impressive is another question.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government)

[Oryxslayer]

Can a French speaker help me with this?  I have a question regarding "période de cohabitation" in the following article, which appeared in Le Monde earlier today.  



We use the word "cohabitation" in English to mean "vivre ensemble" but that seems odd here.  The only thing I can think of is that it refers to a political party holding both the national legislature and the presidency simultaneously.  At the moment the REM has the biggest share of seats in the parliament, so this would make sense.  Is that correct?  Thank you.

Cohabitation  = Divided Government. Since the reforms that aligned the election calendars, the Presidents party always has won the legislatives, whereas previously times there were periods of divided government and conflict between the executive and legislature. Macron is the first president reelected after this reform, and his 2017 legislative majority is still there.

[angus]

Ah, cohabitation, so in English it can refer to the government as well.  I had only seen the word on census forms referring to people living together.

I guess if I hadn't been so lazy it would have occurred to me to look it up.  LaRousse offers this as its second definition, and I guess it works the same way in English:



The more you know.  

Thanks Hash and Oryxslayer.  

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SHARE OF INVALID BALLOTS BY REGION



Maximum: 13.40% in Martinique
Minimum: 7.31 % in Hauts-de-France

The right map reveals tellingly where the French voted for Le Pen from conviction, and where the Le Pen vote was merely a protest vote.

[Hash]

A look at Ipsos' analysis data in my classical graph format:

Vote transfers:


Vote transfers - Ifop:


Essentially the same.

Turnout in certain demographic categories:


Turnout correlated with age and class - the younger and/or poorer you are, the more likely you are to abstain. This is nearly always the case, and was similar 2 weeks ago.

Turnout by political categories:


First refers to partisan sympathy, the second to ideological self-definition. A lot of the Mélenchonista core (those who identify as LFI sympathizers or very left in their politics) abstained, probably the less cultist Mélenchon voters (ie those who voted for him as the main leftist candidate) turned out more.


Gender:


No gender gap, as expected.

Age:


No, despite certain polls and the desperate and continued attempts by some people to make it true to build some bizarre narrative (muh far-right millenials), the youngest voters (18-24) aren't Panzergirl's best age group - again, as has been explained by other good people here, she does best among working-age people between 25 and 60/65. Macron does best among the oldest.

CSP:


Nothing too unexpected, but I'm surprised to see a 10 point gap in the Panzergirl vote between workers and employees - it wasn't the case 2 weeks ago - so I'm curious to see what Ifop will have to say here.

Employment status:


Panzergirl's high numbers among salaried workers, both public and private, shows how high her support is among working-age adults.

Education/diploma:


Income:


Class (self-defined):


Not unexpected, but again, as Al would correctly reiterate, says a lot about Panzergirl's appeal/recipe for success.

Life satisfaction:


Partisan sympathy:


LFI numbers to be interpreted alongside the turnout graph above, of course - but perhaps among the Mélenchonista cure/diehards who did vote, a disproportionate number cast a protest vote for Panzergirl.

Ideology:


Glad to see this question is back in their analysis. The 'very left' numbers to be interpreted alongside the turnout graph above, of course. Those like me who've studied the FN vote for years will know that the 'neither left nor right' has long been a successful 'demographic' for the FN, since the 1990s.

Religion:

[rob in cal]

  Those divisions by class and income while not surprising are still amazing to me. Its not the 1970's or 80's anymore.  Any info on the vote breakdown of people professing support for the Yellow Vests?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

[LAB-LIB]

I just realized that Le Pen's 41.5% of the vote, the third lowest share of the vote for a French Presidential runoff in history, being under Alain Poher's 41.8% in 1969, is remarkable because it means she just barely missed avoiding the fact that the three worst runoff performances have been from someone named Le Pen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

Please show the tweets. I'm in the mood for some good old-fashioned dunking.

[Oryxslayer]

A look at Ipsos' analysis data in my classical graph format:

Ideology:


Glad to see this question is back in their analysis. The 'very left' numbers to be interpreted alongside the turnout graph above, of course. Those like me who've studied the FN vote for years will know that the 'neither left nor right' has long been a successful 'demographic' for the FN, since the 1990s.

This one is most interesting to me because it is self-described. I mean it's common perception and recognition that Macron is certainly more Right than Centre. The results from both rounds clearly show that he has swept up most of the LR vote. Despite this, Le Pen clearly is in control of the "Right" category. What this tells me is that her efforts have worked for many, and FN is normalized to a wider population and is seen less as Fringe "Far Right" but has instead moved the overton window to a position where the party is viewed as part of the traditional spectrum. FN voters see themselves not as reactionary zealots, but Right-wing voters concerned about their daily situation.