French presidential election, 2022

[Torrain]

Be still my centrist heart - at last you can rest easy.

[Logical]

Such a boring, predictable result. It would've been more exciting and psephologically interesting had Meluche made it to the second round.

[President Johnson]

Now on to winning the legislative elections. La Repulique en marche!

[Mike88]

Le Pen seen in a balcony talking on a cellphone. Maybe she's conceding to Macron.

[Oryxslayer]

Already counted Communes are now slowly coming in.

Alpes-Maritimes Looking like Le Pen
Hautes-Alpes looking for Macron
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence looks close
Allier looking like tight Le Pen
Ain looking for Macron
Aisne is obviously a Le Pen blowout.

Right now is in keeping with the modeled geography of the results.

[Storr]

Nostalgic for 80s election winner reveals:

https://twitter.com/TomHourigan/status/1518242479513997316?s=20&t=XURmYS31lC...

[Oryxslayer]

Le Pen concession speech is happening now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

58% was basically where Macron's polling against Le Pen was before The NarrowingTM, so ultimately we're more or less back where we started. A clear win, not really close or even competitive, but still very, very far from last time's 66%. When you factor in the record abstention and likely record blank vote as well, Macron's mandate will be historically pathetic. And conversely, Le Pen reaching above the 40% threshold is a historic results that means there's a real chance of the far-right governing France in the near future. It's a scary time to be French, and it's going to remain scary for the coming five years. Let's just hope that in five years the left will find a way to be relevant again.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that this is the first re-election of a sitting French President for twenty years.

Macron has under his belt two of the most most one sided victories, with Chirac in 2002 being of course something exceptional. He's extremely close to Pompidou's margin.

[It’s so Joever]

Now do you all see why I doom right before? /s

[LAB-LIB]

I think I speak for a lot of people when I say: phew! Not "woo-hoo!", but "phew!"

[President Johnson]

Worth noting that this is the first re-election of a sitting French President for twenty years.

Macron has under his belt two of the most most one sided victories, with Chirac in 2002 being of course something exceptional. He's extremely close to Pompidou's margin.

What's also interesting here is that Macron was polling even better against the other candidates. So if Macron faced off against Melenchon, Zemmour or Pecresse, he would most likely have won even bigger.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Worth noting that this is the first re-election of a sitting French President for twenty years.

Macron has under his belt two of the most most one sided victories, with Chirac in 2002 being of course something exceptional. He's extremely close to Pompidou's margin.

He's only the second president, with De Gaulle, to be reelected while controlling a parliamentary majority. And since De Gaulle's first election was indirect, he's the only such president to be popularly elected twice.

Such an undeserved record for such an unimpressive politician.

[afleitch]

Jaichind's excitement over the equivalent of the results for Dixville Notch was the highlight of the evening.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Grudging congratulations to the despicably cynical incumbent President of France.

[Harlow]

Found at least one commune that flipped from Le Pen to Macron since 2017 (43 votes to MLP's 37, and in 2017 MLP had 40, EM 38) Can you spot any others?

https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/aube-10/thil/?p=compare

[Joe Republic]

So it's official; Le Pen is not mightier than the S word?

[Oryxslayer]

Melenchon speaking now and making his pitch against Macron and for himself in the legislative elections. Calls for a popular union of parties...built around his previous presidential campaign. Also wants to win a majority and made PM, but he's obviously smoking Hopium here cause the combined left didn't win a majority of the seats in round 1 - and Melenchon won only about 100 - so even harder to see it happen in less favorable conditions.

[rob in cal]

We must all bow down in admiration of the FBM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Melenchon speaking now and making his pitch against Macron and for himself in the legislative elections. Calls for a popular union of parties...built around his previous presidential campaign. Also wants to win a majority and made PM, but he's obviously smoking Hopium here cause the combined left didn't win a majority of the seats in round 1, so even harder to see it happen in round 2.

He is right that people need to turn out and vote in the legislatives, though. For 20 years French people have been idiots to skip the vote that actually matters because the presidential election looks flashier. Now there's fatalism around Macron being reelected and there not being a left option on the ballot, but there WILL be a left option on the ballot in June, and if history is any guide, a lot of left-wing voters will ignore it. We have to hope that Mélenchon can convince them not to.

[LAB-LIB]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

[buritobr]

Is it possible these following scenario? A hard scandal hits EM, another scandal hits the right until June, the left wins the majority of the Assembly and Mélenchon becomes prime minister? In this case, would he be the real leader of the country, like Chirac (1986-1988) and Jospin (1997-2002)?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

To who lol

[Oryxslayer]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

Depends who you ask and what the coalition looks like. I currently expect them to get something similar to their 2017 numbers, +/-25 so a majority, but with the contours changing. A good chunk of gains from the seats that went LR/UDI last time, and then a number of losses in the north, south, and city centers.

Polls for example say 34% of the country wants to give LREM+ a majority, which would likely be enough given their candidates' expected dominant position in two-round runoffs and favorable turnout dynamics. The latter would need to change for the situation to change, but that is a question for the next months.

Is it possible these following scenario? A hard scandal hits EM, another scandal hits the right until June, the left wins the majority of the Assembly and Mélenchon becomes prime minister? In this case, would he be the real leader of the country, like Chirac (1986-1988) and Jospin (1997-2002)?

Now this is Hopium. Could happen, but Melenchon could also die tomorrow. You don't bet on random events.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

Is it possible these following scenario? A hard scandal hits EM, another scandal hits the right until June, the left wins the majority of the Assembly and Mélenchon becomes prime minister? In this case, would he be the real leader of the country, like Chirac (1986-1988) and Jospin (1997-2002)?

It is absolutely possible - in theory based purely on first-round results it would even seem inevitable - but history shows it's unlikely. Traditionally people who voted for losing candidates idiotically don't even bother voting in the legislatives. We'll see if a sustained campaign by Mélenchon and Le Pen changes that. I'd have to see it to believe it, but hope springs eternal.