French presidential election, 2022

[Mike88]

Macron's entry is a bit cringe...

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 50% of the vote counted (coming largely from the most rural half of France, as big cities always report last):

Le Pen 27.5%
Macron 26.7%
Mélenchon 18.4%
Zemmour 6.7%
Pécresse 4.7%
Jadot 4%
Lassalle 4% (this is how you know it's a very rural sample)

At 50% of the vote counted, this time, we got around 52% for Macron.

Over the course of the rest of the count for the first round, we had Macron +1.2, Le Pen -4.3, Mélenchon+3.6, Zemmour+0.4, Pécresse+0.1, Jadot+0.6. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like Macron would be set to gain around 4 points, which would get him to 56%. The projections have him significantly higher around 58%, though, so we'll see.

[Oryxslayer]

Can I see a link to their updates please?

Ipsos updated national estimates: 58.8% to 41.2%

Oh I got that off the newscasts. Heres their post:

https://twitter.com/IpsosFrance/status/1518311944435945473?s=20&t=_l-3_yUjei...

[Double Carpet]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

[Oryxslayer]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

[LAB-LIB]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

Yeah, I found some results and it looks that that is still the case. It looks like Paris hasn't reported any votes yet, so the margin will continue to widen.

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

Thanks!

[buritobr]

No surprise the level of abstention.
Turnout is higher when there is a left vs right runoff like in 1965, 1974, 1981, 1988, 1995, 2007, 2012, than when there is no left like in 1969, 2002, 2017, 2022.

[Astatine]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

How are things going now after France and Slovenia sweetheart

[Antonio the Sixth]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

[KaiserDave]

Globalists everywhere freaking out

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512064596915359764

[rob in cal]

 I think a Melenchon vs Macron runoff might have been more intresting in terms of unpredictability and drama. Macron wins anyway of course.

BTW, is there anyone on this board who actually supported Macron in the first round?

[adma]

Second round, in my favourite monitoring fixation point, the Commune of Y (Somme):  41 Le Pen, 9 Macron (82-18)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y,_Somme

[KaiserDave]

Anyway my actual thoughts are that this is a necessary disappointment. The victory of Macron over Le Pen is absolutely a good thing, but Macron is pretty bad, and his second term may even be worse, we'll see. But vote for the crook, it's important! And the crook wins!

[Cassius]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

Lasalle voters being funnelled towards Le Pen perhaps? From the couple of northern departments that have reported I see that the swings to Le Pen are much more in line with the exit poll’s projection (7-8 points), even in Le Pen friendly territory like Meuse.

[Oryxslayer]

Aveyron: 60.07% Macron, 39.93% Le Pen.
 - 68.23% Voted for a candidate.

Creuse: 52.04% Macron, 47.96% Le Pen.
 - 64.54% Voted for a candidate.

Haute-Vienne: 59.18% Macron, 40.82% Le Pen.
 - 66.19% Voted for a candidate.

Lot: 59.18% Macron, 40.82% Le Pen.
 - 66.91% Voted for a candidate.

Jura: 53.07% Macron, 46.93% Le Pen.
 - 68.05% Voted for a candidate.

Hautes-Pyrénées: 55.50% Macron, 44.50% Le Pen.
 - 66.09% Voted for a candidate.

Haute-Corsica: 57.87% Le Pen, 42.13% Macron.
 - 55.06% voted for a candidate.

Meuse: 55.61% Le Pen, 44.39% Macron.
 - 70.07% Voted for a candidate.

Vosges: 52.41% Le Pen, 47.59% Macron.
 - 69.23% Voted for a candidate.

Haute-Marne: 56.96% Le Pen, 43.04% Macron.
 - 68.83% Voted for a candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

Lasalle voters being funnelled towards Le Pen perhaps? From the couple of northern departments that have reported I see that the swings to Le Pen are much more in line with the exit poll’s projection (7-8 points), even in Le Pen friendly territory like Meuse.

Looking at those results now and yeah, it looks like Eure-et-Loir as well as those reporting departments around Champagne and Lorraine are showing swings of 7-8 points. Interesting. I think the most likely explanation then is that a lot of traditional left-wing rural voters who gave Macron a chance last time (when he was the de-facto center-left candidate) went over to the #populist side. And given the first-round swings, it seems many of them did so by the first round, even. If so, that's actually even sadder. Oh well.

[jeron]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

So far.in Ile de France it seems to be more like 5-6%.

[BlueSwan]

BTW, is there anyone on this board who actually supported Macron in the first round?

I have supported Macron all the way. I never ever ever support populists.

[wbrocks67]

Thank god France got this right. Le Pen is absolutely nuts, but given her "rehabilitation" with the public, I'd consider a 59-41 win a pretty big success given how unpopular Macron has apparently been and France going through the same issues the US is ("inflation" being blamed on the incumbent party, COVID-19 measures, etc.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

So far.in Ile de France it seems to be more like 5-6%.

The IdF results aren't representative yet: even within those departments, it's the relatively less urbanized areas that report first. So if anything Macron might end up even higher there. But we'll see.

[parochial boy]

I think a Melenchon vs Macron runoff might have been more intresting in terms of unpredictability and drama. Macron wins anyway of course.

BTW, is there anyone on this board who actually supported Macron in the first round?

Tons. This board is rammed full of pseudo-progessives who think that plutocratic attacks on the poor, handouts to the rich alongside race-baiting and legtimising and fuelling far right talking points is all perfectly fine and dandy as long as it comes wrapped in an EU flag and self-proclaimed "respectability".

[Hash]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

So far.in Ile de France it seems to be more like 5-6%.

The IdF results aren't representative yet: even within those departments, it's the relatively less urbanized areas that report first. So if anything Macron might end up even higher there. But we'll see.

Panzergirl underperforming her 'potential' in IDF and urban areas is not new: I made this map in 2017 based on a rough calculation (based on poll data) of vote transfers:



I look forward to making a similar map later for this election, let's see how it looks - but I broadly agree with your conclusion that the runoff results reinforced the periphery vs core divide even more than in 2017.

[Oryxslayer]

Three interesting results I want to point to: Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, and Ariège. Le Pen won the former two, Macron the latter. However, the former two in the Garrone valley are clear examples of the distinct rural political views of that region being expressed on the department level, despite Le Pen losing by more than expected. The latter is a far-left region but only went 51-49 for Macron, though with a lower-than-normal 64.6% votes cast for on of the two candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Brittany such a stronghold for Macron?

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 85% of votes counted, Macron finally crosses 55%. The remaining 15% is strongly concentrated in IdF and other big metropoles, so he can definitely net a few more points there, but we'll have to see if he gets to his projected score.