Hungarian elections and politics

[Umengus]

We'll have to see just how much the numbers will tighten, but it looks like Hungary will remain the stronghold of sanity within Europe (though I've been a lot less impressed by their Ukraine stance tbh). Anyone who's actually been there and talked with people there (and I don't just mean globalist "academics" from CEU or some bartender at a downtown Buda club) understands Hungary is not a "far-right dictatorship" but rather a country that, in most regards, is similar to literally all European countries just a few decades ago in terms of morality, while making enormous economic progress, and that isn't interested in going into full neo-communist self-destruction mode like all of Western Europe. No wonder people keep voting Fidesz.

100 % correct.

I was there in october, in the fidez demonstration in Budapest and it was pretty good. Budapest is very beautiful, very clean, so much better than brussels, where I work. Orban position on putin is bad but well, not so bad than (belgian) greens (who prefer gas to nuke) lol

Budapest is just a suburb of Brussels. 70% of their legislation is still written down my street. Feels good man

I have some doubts on this number.

[Zinneke]

We'll have to see just how much the numbers will tighten, but it looks like Hungary will remain the stronghold of sanity within Europe (though I've been a lot less impressed by their Ukraine stance tbh). Anyone who's actually been there and talked with people there (and I don't just mean globalist "academics" from CEU or some bartender at a downtown Buda club) understands Hungary is not a "far-right dictatorship" but rather a country that, in most regards, is similar to literally all European countries just a few decades ago in terms of morality, while making enormous economic progress, and that isn't interested in going into full neo-communist self-destruction mode like all of Western Europe. No wonder people keep voting Fidesz.

100 % correct.

I was there in october, in the fidez demonstration in Budapest and it was pretty good. Budapest is very beautiful, very clean, so much better than brussels, where I work. Orban position on putin is bad but well, not so bad than (belgian) greens (who prefer gas to nuke) lol

Budapest is just a suburb of Brussels. 70% of their legislation is still written down my street. Feels good man

I have some doubts on this number.

Budapest is of course a nicer city than Brussels. It’s also run by progressives.

Gembloux on the other hand…makes Brussels look like St Tropez.

[ElectionsGuy]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

People can easily vote against democracy. The Nazis had plenty of popular support on a platform of ending democracy.

[YE]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

Predictably you get super defensive and grouchy anytime the left complains about an election result and make a two paragraph post whining about it.

[Alcibiades]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

What the hell are you even talking about? Please enlighten us as to how the intricacies of Hungarian polling methodology apply across the rest of the world. You are also incredibly dense if you think it’s somehow impossible in a democracy to vote for a party which supports undermining that same democracy. I can recommend you some excellent books on the Weimar Republic if you’re interested.

I’ve said it before, but the mods should really consider banning the USGD crowd from polluting this generally high-quality board by flogging their favourite hobby horses — in this case, the right-wing persecution complex.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

Are they? The polls were bang on for the AfD, which was most recent big election in Europe featuring a populist right party. Recent state elections in Austria show no overperformance for FPO. Le Pens have typically underperformed the polls in France, as have populist right formations in Australia. Neither PVV nor FvD were underpolled at the last Dutch election. Kast was not overpolled in Chile. Maxime Bernier's outfit in Canada has been placed at the right position. Chega basically got their predicted result.  Yamina was not overpolled in Israel. Etc

[RGM2609]

So how will the opposition parties split their seats?

[Mike88]

So how will the opposition parties split their seats?

16 DK
  9 Jobbik
  9 MM
  9 MSZP
  7 PM
  5 LMP
  1 Independent

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

People can easily vote against democracy. The Nazis had plenty of popular support on a platform of ending democracy.

Nor were they alone in this. Weimar has been called "a republic without republicans" because of the sheer number of popular, mainstream parties that fundamentally were not committed to maintaining democracy if and when they secured power. ElectionsGuy's post is dishonest and/or idiotic as always.

[Astatine]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

Are they? The polls were bang on for the AfD, which was most recent big election in Europe featuring a populist right party. Recent state elections in Austria show no overperformance for FPO. Le Pens have typically underperformed the polls in France, as have populist right formations in Australia. Neither PVV nor FvD were underpolled at the last Dutch election. Kast was not overpolled in Chile. Maxime Bernier's outfit in Canada has been placed at the right position. Chega basically got their predicted result.  Yamina was not overpolled in Israel. Etc

I'd also add that in 5 out of 6 of the most recent German state elections, AfD was actually overpolled, in some cases even heavily (26% in Saxony-Anhalt, 20.8% in the end).

Pollsters usually adjust their samples after elections have taken place, and in the most recent election in Hungary, there was a polling error in favor of Fidesz. No poll had the united opposition candidate leading in the 2019 Budapest elections (some even had the Fidesz incumbent ahead by double digits), but in the end, Fidesz lost by 7 points. This could be a partial explanation - Pollsters adjusted their samples according to data from back then and transferred this experience for the current election polls - and failed.
Polling errors will always happen, it's just that barely anyone cares when they're spot on, but there is big drama about them when they turn out to be wrong.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

Are they? The polls were bang on for the AfD, which was most recent big election in Europe featuring a populist right party. Recent state elections in Austria show no overperformance for FPO. Le Pens have typically underperformed the polls in France, as have populist right formations in Australia. Neither PVV nor FvD were underpolled at the last Dutch election. Kast was not overpolled in Chile. Maxime Bernier's outfit in Canada has been placed at the right position. Chega basically got their predicted result.  Yamina was not overpolled in Israel. Etc

You can add the Sweden Democrats to this list as well. While polls slightly underestimated them in 2010 and 2014, they were actually strongly overestimated in 2018 and 2019.

Shame that someone who is actually quite good at U.S. election predictions and analysis feels the need to shoehorn the conservative victimhood narrative into everything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

What an utterly idiotic post. Please stick to commenting on US elections, where at least you have a vague understanding of what's going on (if only through personal experience, clearly not through analytical capacities) rather than just spouting off prepackaged talking points about a continent that's alien to you.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

In seriousness, I understand the Hungary fetish to an extent. Orbán is a right-wing illiberal leader who is apparently popular at home and who does not, so far, send people to camps or invade neighbors or immiserate his citizens on purpose to own the commies, so Hungary naturally appeals to people ideologically sympathetic to right-wing illiberalism but not willing to stan Putin or Khamenei, in the same way that, say, Bolivia appeals to people like me who are ideologically sympathetic to Latin American socialism but aren't willing to stan Ortega or Maduro. The thing is that discerning homophobes, whatever else can be said about them, tend to take just as dim a view of ronery NEETs who spend ten hours a day pounding off to pictures of pubescent anime girls in unfashionable bikinis as they do of gay people. Yet such people tend to like Orbán and want someone like him to rule their own countries, even though such a ruler wouldn't coddle them the way Trump did but would instead tell them to get up off their asses and, at the very least, have enough sex with an actual 3D woman to buy the country another few decades before demographic winter sets in. Since one doesn't need an authoritarian leader in order to do that oneself, only in order to compel other people to do so, one wonders if any of these modern-day superfluous men are really that good of friends with one another.

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to give combined Budapest results and then what rest of country was minus Budapest.  Be interested in how big the gap is?

Also wonder if language and access to international media plays a big role.  I noticed when I visited Budapest, English was quite widely spoken, but I've heard in rest of Hungary knowledge of foreign languages quite low so if one understands another they would hear lots from non-Hungarian sources whereas in Hungary it seems pro-Orban dominate media.

[CumbrianLefty]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

Are they? The polls were bang on for the AfD, which was most recent big election in Europe featuring a populist right party. Recent state elections in Austria show no overperformance for FPO. Le Pens have typically underperformed the polls in France, as have populist right formations in Australia. Neither PVV nor FvD were underpolled at the last Dutch election. Kast was not overpolled in Chile. Maxime Bernier's outfit in Canada has been placed at the right position. Chega basically got their predicted result.  Yamina was not overpolled in Israel. Etc

You can add the Sweden Democrats to this list as well. While polls slightly underestimated them in 2010 and 2014, they were actually strongly overestimated in 2018 and 2019.

Shame that someone who is actually quite good at U.S. election predictions and analysis feels the need to shoehorn the conservative victimhood narrative into everything.

Yes, the "polls always understate the populist right" meme is so last decade - in as much that it was ever actually true (ie to an extent it *was*, but never to the degree that some claimed)

But in this instance, the polls were wrong - and in some cases massively so.

Worth looking into why.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The guy running the party in fifth has an interesting business background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gy%C3%B6rgy_Gatty%C3%A1n

[Omega21]

The guy running the party in fifth has an interesting business background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gy%C3%B6rgy_Gatty%C3%A1n

Sigma male grindset detected

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-kick-starts-process-deny-143012671.html#bsht=CgRmYnNtEgIIAw

"EU Kick-Starts Process to Deny Hungary Funding Over Rule of Law"

I do not know the technicalities here but the timing is a bad look where it is "if do not vote for the guy we like then we will take awy money from you"

[Omega21]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-kick-starts-process-deny-143012671.html#bsht=CgRmYnNtEgIIAw

"EU Kick-Starts Process to Deny Hungary Funding Over Rule of Law"

I do not know the technicalities here but the timing is a bad look where it is "if do not vote for the guy we like then we will take awy money from you"

Well, it is not just a bad look, it is what it actually is, not even 24 hours after the election lol.

Next time Brussels will wonder why Fidesz got 70%. The "we will not be a vassal of Brussels" might not just be a talking point after all.

As for people screaming "BUT CORRUPTION!!!" - bruh, take a look at Bulgaria and Romania with one eye open.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-kick-starts-process-deny-143012671.html#bsht=CgRmYnNtEgIIAw

"EU Kick-Starts Process to Deny Hungary Funding Over Rule of Law"

I do not know the technicalities here but the timing is a bad look where it is "if do not vote for the guy we like then we will take awy money from you"

Well, it is not just a bad look, it is what it actually is, not even 24 hours after the election lol.

Next time Brussels will wonder why Fidesz got 70%. The "we will not be a vassal of Brussels" might not just be a talking point after all.

As for people screaming "BUT CORRUPTION!!!" - bruh, take a look at Bulgaria and Romania with one eye open.

If Hungary doesn’t like the EU, and votes to say that, that’s fine. But they shouldn’t expect benefits from it.

[bigic]

No, it just fits into the age-old pattern of liberals sponsoring and eventually melding with fascists (the famous and always vindicated quote, "scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds.")

Wow, I managed to find a more braindead take than even most of the pro-Orban takes

[MaxQue]

No, it just fits into the age-old pattern of liberals sponsoring and eventually melding with fascists (the famous and always vindicated quote, "scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds.")

Wow, I managed to find a more braindead take than even most of the pro-Orban takes

Truth hurts, doesn't it?

[Badger]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

It's actually sub-reprehensible to be stanning  for a would be autocrat whom by any objective measure is actively dismantling hungry as a functioning  Democracy with viable opposition parties and media just because he hasn't outright banned voting yet, apparently all in the name of "owning the libs, International edition". But you do you.

[Badger]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.