French presidential election, 2022

[adma]

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them.

This is very much a type - Arron Banks and Nigel Farage fit that description, as does Donald Trump (the Queens boy who was too gauche for the Manhattan set).

Trump was never a candidate for almost-elite people, though, and Farage similar. Zemmour and Baudet are a pretty distinct brand that way. Vox in Spain is not too dissimilar from Baudet and Zemmour, either, although with more of a religious bent.

It's interesting too that both Baudet and Zemmour emerged in political environments that already had a lower-class far-right populist presence from which they both have tried to draw a sharp distinction.

Yeah, "big brained" is scarcely a label that befits the Trump/Farage crowd.  The closest thing to an Anglosphere equivalent might be if Jordan Peterson ever decided to go into politics.  "Intellectual incels", sort of like...

[adma]

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them.

This is very much a type - Arron Banks and Nigel Farage fit that description, as does Donald Trump (the Queens boy who was too gauche for the Manhattan set).

Trump was never a candidate for almost-elite people, though, and Farage similar. Zemmour and Baudet are a pretty distinct brand that way. Vox in Spain is not too dissimilar from Baudet and Zemmour, either, although with more of a religious bent.

It's interesting too that both Baudet and Zemmour emerged in political environments that already had a lower-class far-right populist presence from which they both have tried to draw a sharp distinction.

Yeah, "big brained" is scarcely a label that befits the Trump/Farage crowd.  The closest thing to an Anglosphere equivalent might be if Jordan Peterson ever decided to go into politics.  "Intellectual incels", sort of like...

Whether they're intellectual or not is less relevant to me than the point about their class position. Wealthy almost-but-not-quite elites who feel resentment at the actual elite they failed to break into.

Still, I'm referring to the original "nihilist big-brained intellectuals" point.  Which isn't *quite* in the same coarse category as Trumpian parvenu-ism; more like those who really *did* invest in being "educated" rather than just "rich" and "prosperous", but found themselves shunned all the same.

More like kinfolk to this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intellectual_dark_web

[adma]

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

Still, a lot of what might be France's equivalent to "Justin Trudeau moderates" is parked in the Macron camp out of "electable convenience".  So that's where the "Macron + Left" kicks in.

[adma]

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

Still, a lot of what might be France's equivalent to "Justin Trudeau moderates" is parked in the Macron camp out of "electable convenience".  So that's where the "Macron + Left" kicks in.

Except it's even more so the case that his electorate comes from what you might typically consider the "moderate" or "liberal" right - and that is a far more accurate explanation of what is going on than to try and glue him together with a left that is both ideologically and demographically opposed to him.

I mean, the cliché Macron voter these days is basically someone rich who lives in the west of Paris - and just a casual glance at the results of the 2019 European election makes it very obvious that his strongholds are places that are either rich (the west of Paris, Pays de Gex, west Lyonnais) or places that are traditionally strongholds of the liberal/catholic right (Pyrénées-Atlantiques, the Inner West).

It all screams "centre-right" electorate, precisly because that is what it is. I mean, you would clearly not analyse the French electorate of the 1970s as the "the left + Giscard d'Estaing", and doing that with Macron amounts to more or less the same thing.

Well, in that case, you could just as well call the Canadian equivalent "the left + Paul Martin Liberals" (i.e. those who might live in Oakville or Westmount)--and there've *always* been those NDP sorts in Canada who'd label the Libs a "centre-right" party of monied elites in hock to Bay Street interests, no different in its fundamentals from the Conservatives, despite whatever leftish masquerade it might project out of electoral opportunism.

Yet "the left" in Canada still votes Liberal because...they're not the scary Conservatives.  Much as they might vote for Macron because he's not like those scary others.  And if it were a runoff of Giscard d'Estaing vs someone to the "scary right" of him, well...

[adma]

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?

About 50% are supporting Macron, or so I heard on a podcast I'm listening to.

Remember that Hollande got sizeable transfers from Centrist voters because Sarkozy was a genuinely horrible, corrupt person and that people should remember that Macron, despite the Benalla affair, doesn't have the abuse of power affairs that Sarkozy had.

adma needs to stop comparing French politics to Canadian politics though.

The electoral systems are different (so yes, a leftist may vote Macron in second round, doesn't mean they support him or like him - and more and more say they will abstain, otherwise Pécresse wouldn't be close in 2nd round polling)

And the cleavages are different.

Trudeau and Macron are put side by side by a weird bunch of international journalists who see them as from the same political tradition of milktoast post-2000 neoliberalism when Macron is really sui generis and a couple of statements on climate change being bad and multilateralism being good doesn't necessarily make him a liberal.

Re Pecresse being close in 2nd round polling: that'd still roughly correspond w/ the "left + Macron" vs "right" figures, wouldn't it?  "Left + Macron" doesn't equal "Left = Macron", particularly given the nature of the political divide (and I'm looking beyond the strict "left-right" binary here) these days compared to the Giscard D'Estaing era.

I'm not claiming they're politically equivalent--and frankly, in terms of Canada, it's not just a "Justin thing", left-proxy has *always* been the case w/the Liberals in Canada, the inverse of the UK where the Lib Dems are the monkeys-in-the-middle.  It's just that Macron represents the first time when a so-framed exceptional "middle force" in French politics has confronted prime opposition on the right (first Le Pen, now...whomever), which sort of forces the left-leaning-by-shotgun "grand coalition" matter.  But if it were Macron vs the "Mitterrand left" a la Giscard D'Estaing, the dynamic would reverse itself...

[adma]

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?

About 50% are supporting Macron, or so I heard on a podcast I'm listening to.

Remember that Hollande got sizeable transfers from Centrist voters because Sarkozy was a genuinely horrible, corrupt person and that people should remember that Macron, despite the Benalla affair, doesn't have the abuse of power affairs that Sarkozy had.

adma needs to stop comparing French politics to Canadian politics though.

The electoral systems are different (so yes, a leftist may vote Macron in second round, doesn't mean they support him or like him - and more and more say they will abstain, otherwise Pécresse wouldn't be close in 2nd round polling)

And the cleavages are different.

Trudeau and Macron are put side by side by a weird bunch of international journalists who see them as from the same political tradition of milktoast post-2000 neoliberalism when Macron is really sui generis and a couple of statements on climate change being bad and multilateralism being good doesn't necessarily make him a liberal.

Re Pecresse being close in 2nd round polling: that'd still roughly correspond w/ the "left + Macron" vs "right" figures, wouldn't it?

No, it corresponds to the Left (whatever the  that means in French politics these days) abstaining en masse alongside large chunks of the Right, but Pécresse being aided by some core elements of the Right transferring to her including Macronistes swing voters from the center-right lending their vote to her in the event of a close contest. I think the Pécresse/Macron map will be very interesting for sure because it will sui generis and based on a lot of things like personality, local contacts and regional power figures etc.

I don't think we can say for sure yet that the second round map will be a Left-Right map of old.

If you're going to frame it in *those* terms, then the Canadian equivalent might be (for the sake of hypothesis) a second-round British Columbia election where the NDP's eliminated and the race is btw/the big-tent right-establishment BC Liberals and, I suppose, a revived BC Conservative party or some force further to the right...

[adma]

When I was young, persons taking themselves for Napoleon were depicted in fiction works and funny stories as your average resident of psychiatric hospitals (with people wearing inverted funnel as hat). Now, they are running for president or teaching the next generation of far-right leaders…

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NapoleonDelusion

[adma]

Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

Hey, I might use the word "globalist", too.  But in a "meta" way, i.e. sort of like the "so-labelled" globalists, or the joke's on those unironically/disdainfully deploying the label...

[adma]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

[adma]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

What sort of commune would vote for Le Pen?

The commune with one letter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y,_Somme

[adma]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

[adma]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

I don't think those exist. Best website I found is this.
https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/?p=compare
It has 2017 results for comparison.

They'll *probably* happen eventually, in connection w/the Legislatifs.

[adma]

Data on the election broken down to lower level communes, arrondissements, and constituencies (someone wanted this) is now accessible on the govt data portal.

Is there something that involves links, rather than downloadable files?

[adma]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

Ah, makes sense: a Parisian version of the "pro-Israel" swing to the right (akin to similar patterns in the Jewish parts of Toronto & Montreal, or those patches of deep Trump red in the Orthodox parts of Brooklyn)

[adma]

The funniest thing about the map, however, is the fact that Louisiana forms its own constituency, as though it's still 1803. 😀 King Louis XIV would be proud.

Somehow Nunavut got one while all of Western Canada had to share one.

As mentioned in a post above:  "Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)"

[adma]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

[adma]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Alright but there seems to be an urban area southwest of it she did well in.

In which case, you'd be speaking in more general Nord-Pas-de-Calais terms--most particularly, the old coal-mining vicinity of the Artois--than in the immediate terms of Lille.  And among other things, Pas-de-Calais (which isn't the Lille department, but that immediately to the S) happens to be Le Pen's political home base, and one of 2 departments which she won in the 2nd round in '17.

[adma]

This should be a meme template.

Surely a whole lot of Brett Somers "Match Game" possibilities come to mind.

[adma]

If MLP is elected it would be such a disaster for France. She barely knew her own program.

You mean, the Rick Perry of French presidential politics?

[adma]

Second round, in my favourite monitoring fixation point, the Commune of Y (Somme):  41 Le Pen, 9 Macron (82-18)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y,_Somme

[adma]

This is a pretty good election result. It's nice to see that the far-right didn't come close to victory. Macron also isn't awful, especially compared to the rest of the field. The French party system is still very unstable so every side has some hope next time.

Still, 21-22 mainland Le Pen depts (+ Corsica and the Dom-Toms) vs 2 in '17 gives cause for pause.

[adma]

When it comes to the reach of Le Pen in the DOM-TOM, let's also not forget the comparison point of Ford Nation in Toronto.

[adma]

Scotland;

Macron 91.44%

MacRon?  McRon?

It's like people in Ireland supporting O'Bama...

[adma]

In some ways, Seine-et-Marne is midway btw/ a Val d'Oise sort of place and an Oise sort of place.