French presidential election, 2022

[Cassius]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.

Ah, the French left, epitomizing the Fraternity in "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" to the T.

I mean she’s not technically a frater, so it’s all good.

Also, I hear tell that Barnier is now, apparently, the favourite for the LR nomination? Is he likely to do any better than Bertrand or Pécresse (he seems to be polling a bit behind them in putative match ups for the Presidential election)?

[Cassius]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

I think Etch-a-sketching to whatever position is perceived to be popular with no regard for past statements can still be found across the French political spectrum.

[Cassius]

Go back to thinking about new ways to hate gays in your spare time old timer

Will do - but I'm 21.

21 and Evangelical...that's just sad. You should be getting tossed off in a park somewhere, not happy clappying along to songs about castrating LGBT people.

Who said that these two things are mutually exclusive?

[Cassius]

Go back to thinking about new ways to hate gays in your spare time old timer

Will do - but I'm 21.

21 and Evangelical...that's just sad. You should be getting tossed off in a park somewhere, not happy clappying along to songs about castrating LGBT people.

Who said that these two things are mutually exclusive?

I'll leave you and Conservatopia to it!

Alas, unlike your good self I don’t need to engage in cottaging.

[Cassius]

Inb4 the circular right-wing firing squad of Zemmour, Le Pen and Pecresse (with assistance from the minor right-wingers) puts Melenchon in the run-off - after all, he enjoyed a late campaign surge in 2017 and, iirc, 2012.

[Cassius]

PS has strategists?

[Cassius]

PS has strategists?

Have you ever known a centre left party that didn’t have hundreds of over-paid, ignorant, strategists?

Touché.

[Cassius]

I was pretty surprised to hear that Macron started off as a supporter of Chevènement, but then I remembered that he's a French politician so I'm actually not surprised at all.

[Cassius]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

Ik its so based to see leftists getting cucked.

Don’t count your chickens before they are in the coop.

[Cassius]

So the PCF finally avenges getting f’d over by Mitterrand.

[Cassius]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Peter Shore?

Anyway, I expect Le Pen will attempt “one more heave” in 2027 (but still fall short, barring unforeseen circumstances).

[Cassius]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

Mostly rural France nationwide.

On that point, two more southern departments are joining Lozère:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 51.45% Le Pen, 48.55% Macron. 67% voted for a candidate, and did not abstain or vote blanc.
Cantal: 56.1% Macron, 43.9% Le Pen. 69.43% voted for a candidate.

We're seeing Macron around 13-14 points below his 2017 result throughout the mostly rural and Southern departments that have fully reported so far. So either the projections are significantly off (unlikely) or, more likely, he's lost more ground than average in those places compared to more urban areas. In other words, the cleavage between metropolitan and peripheral France has gotten even deeper.

I guess I should be happy to have another data point for my postdoctoral research, but I'd like nothing more than to see it proven wrong.

Lasalle voters being funnelled towards Le Pen perhaps? From the couple of northern departments that have reported I see that the swings to Le Pen are much more in line with the exit poll’s projection (7-8 points), even in Le Pen friendly territory like Meuse.

[Cassius]

With Bouches-de-Rhine now in I believe, if my calculations are correct, that Le Pen also wins the PACA region.

Presumably Corsica (the best French region) and Hauts-de-France. I don’t think Le Pen will do as well as people seem to expect, but if she gets 40-45%, which to me is plausible, then she should be winning those two regions. Maybe PACd’A as well, given that the strong Zemmour vote there probably held down her first round total significantly.

For once I didn’t do too badly with the old predictions.