French presidential election, 2022

[buritobr]

In a Anne Hidalgo vs Marine Le Pen runoff, how will the macronists and the gaullists vote?

[buritobr]

Should Hidalgo and Melenchon become only one candidature? Should one of them decline and support the other?
Probably, if both run, the left will not go to the runoff.

[buritobr]

Most recent poll
Odoxa December 7-9th, 2021
Emmanuel Macron 24%, Valerie Pecresse 19%, Marine Le Pen 17%, Eric Zemmour 12%, Jean Luc Melenchon 10%, Yannick Janot 6%, Anne Hidalgo 3%, Dupont-Aignan 2.5%, Fabien Roussel 2%, Phillippe Poutou 1.5%

I don't believe we will see 6 candidates with >5% on April 10th 2022. In 2 round elections, usually the strategic votes are concentrated in few candidates, no more than 4, in the final week of the 1st round campaign.

[buritobr]

Is it already possible to say that Macron will have one of the places in the runoff and the other place is contested by Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon?

[buritobr]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

[buritobr]

Those who think American politics boring because there are only 2 major parties would like French politics. There is a big menu of political parties and ideologies.

[buritobr]

According the most recent OpinionWay poll (January 16-19th 2022)

Sum of the left: 28%
Macron: 24%
Sum of the right: 49%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election

if you consider that all the candidates showed on the left of Macron in the table in the Wikipedia article belong to the left and all the candidates showed on the right of Macron in this table belong to the right.

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

[buritobr]

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

I didn't include Macron in the group of the Left. That's why I wrote Macron + Left, and not only Left

[buritobr]

Cluster 17 poll

Macron 22.5%, Le Pen 14.5%, Zemmour 14.5%, Pécresse 14%, Mélenchon 13%, Taubira 6%, Jadot 5%, Hidalgo 2%, Russel 2%

In the group of 18-24 old people
Mélenchon 30%, Le Pen 26%, Macron 13%, Jadot 11%, Pécresse 5%, Taubira 4%, Hidalgo 3%, Zemmour 2%

[buritobr]

Who is more evil: Eric Zemmour or Marine Le Pen?

[buritobr]

Which candidate does Olaf Scholz prefer to win?
The candidate of the party similar to him is Anne Hidalgo. But she doesn't have any chance.
Which competitive candidate do you believe Scholz has a preference?

[buritobr]

Is it possible that the 5% who support Roussel decide to move to Mélenchon in the last hour as a useful vote? If so, the candidate of the FI can go to the runoff.

[buritobr]

As we were discussing 2 months ago, now it's become clear that only 3 candidates will have a large number of votes: Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others will have single digit. In the final days, some candidates atract useful votes.

[buritobr]

Atlas has already committed a big mistake in Chile. It showed a tie between Boric and Kast in the eve of the 2nd round. Boric had a comfortable margin.

I even didn't know that Altas was Brazilian. Atlas used to conduct some polls for Brazil, but here we are not talking about Atlas anymore.

[buritobr]

My forecast

Emmanuel Macron 27%
Marine Le Pen 26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 23%
Eric Zemmour 7%
Valérie Pécresse 7%
Jadot 4%
Roussel 1%
Hidalgo 1%
others 4%

[buritobr]

Interesting charts.

Mélenchon performed well in the group of low income but also in the group of high education. Like many leftists nowadays.

[buritobr]

Is it correct to say that Mélenchon 2017 was like Bernie Sanders 2016 and that Mélenchon 2022 was like Bernie Sanders 2020?

I proposed this parellel because Mélenchon 2017 and Sanders 2016 had an unusual base: non immigrant workers outside the big urban centers.
Sanders 2020 and Mélenchon 2022 had typical 21st century left base: immigrants, minorities, big cities, young people, educated people

[buritobr]

Is it possible these following scenario? A hard scandal hits EM, another scandal hits the right until June, the left wins the majority of the Assembly and Mélenchon becomes prime minister? In this case, would he be the real leader of the country, like Chirac (1986-1988) and Jospin (1997-2002)?

[buritobr]

No surprise the level of abstention.
Turnout is higher when there is a left vs right runoff like in 1965, 1974, 1981, 1988, 1995, 2007, 2012, than when there is no left like in 1969, 2002, 2017, 2022.