French presidential election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Macron most likely will win but his approval numbers are terrible when compared to his peers.

Congrats on figuring out what we already knew, that the two-round runoff system fosters personalized politics in regards to the executive and consequentially low approvals. This of course is not corrected for by the system, on the contrary a 25 to 30% approval rating is decent in such a system since it is likely to guarantee a runoff slot. There, some disapprovers are forced through negative voting to cast ballots for you, to stop your opponent.

[Agafin]

Aren't the overseas results a little scary? I know they are not the same as the mainland but they were the first piece of information that foreshadowed Mélenchon overperforming his polling two weeks ago.

[kaoras]

The only ones that seems charismatic at all of the bigger countries  is that Mexican commie and that guy who hates white people (and probably black people). The only popular-ish big country leader is Draghi, which is good but unexpected.

Okay, maybe we should ban US posters from the international boards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aren't the overseas results a little scary? I know they are not the same as the mainland but they were the first piece of information that foreshadowed Mélenchon overperforming his polling two weeks ago.

Well they're certainly good for Le Pen. But these things can be hard to read and might tell an entirely different story: Macron's first round results in the colonial territories two weeks ago were dire - including some sharp falls on last time round in several - and he's clearly deeply unpopular in many of them.

[Walmart_shopper]

The only ones that seems charismatic at all of the bigger countries  is that Mexican commie and that guy who hates white people (and probably black people). The only popular-ish big country leader is Draghi, which is good but unexpected.

Okay, maybe we should ban US posters from the international boards.

AMLO is a megalomaniacal autocrat who sold his brand of crypto socialism as a mask for a naked grab for political power. If only he spent as much time healing Mexico as he spends wining about everything bad ever in Mexican history.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm getting nervous, probably irresponsible based on the information out there but still sweating

[Mike88]

63.23% turnout at 5pm. Minus 1.77% compared with the first round and minus 2.07% compared with 2017.

[parochial boy]

Aren't the overseas results a little scary? I know they are not the same as the mainland but they were the first piece of information that foreshadowed Mélenchon overperforming his polling two weeks ago.

Those results are eyebrow raising... but are set in a quite unique context.

For example Guadeloupe has spent the last year or so (well longer) in the context of a massive social crisis. In particular they had a wave of riots over the winter that were triggered by Macron's Covid vaccine obligation for healthcare workers, but obviously ahd deeper roots. There has been a big degree of vaccine scepticism in the department, which molded into an acute Covid crisis over the last winter; and which in turn emerges out of a not-exactly-unfounded scepticism of the French state on the island.

Add to that a precarious economic situation; an already extremely high cost of living (in part down to idiotic supply chains practised by the retailers, but excacerbated - and this is important - by the békés, the descendents of the white colonial planter class who still dominate the local economy in an entirely nepotistic and self-serving way); as well as a cruel lack of investment in the economy; the covid inspired loss of tourist bucks and worries about immigration from other crisis hit Carribean islands; and you have your answer as to why the anti-Macron swings have been so violent.

Martinique also focuses many of these factors, which would explain the similar result.

Guyane has also been through periods of intense unrest and violence, built up by similar factors around precarity, justified feelings of neglect but also worries about insecurity that have been driven by the booming cocaine trade and high levels of illegal immigration from Brazil/Guyana/Haïti among others. So again, an intense anti-incumbent vote was entirely to expected.

I don't think these will translate on to the mainland at all because, well, Muslims in the banlieues are never going to go out and vote Le Pen - and precarised but well educated young people aren't either. They might delve into abstention, but the balance of interests among mainland Mélenchon voters is just too different to what it was in the Antilles for there to be too much that you can read into.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can someone find me the link of the crowd in reunion chanting Allahu Akbar in favour of Le Penn in reunion ?

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm getting nervous, probably irresponsible based on the information out there but still sweating

Kind of Brexit/Trump 2016 vibes, honestly. I don't think the French are as dumb as Americans and Britons but the pandemic has thrown global politics into sufficient doubt that it wouldn't be a huge shock if LePen pulled it out.

[brucejoel99]

I am saying it right now: If Le Pen wins, I'll never eat snails for 1 solid lifetime. (I will also do this if Macron wins because it's weird as f**k & REALLY makes me question the judgement of the French people in general.)

[Mike88]

With the 5pm turnout figures, IPSOS is projecting a 72% turnout rate, the lowest since the 1969 Presidential election.

[Mike88]

Live election night coverage:

TF1:

BFMTV:

FranceInfo:

Official results page:
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/index.html

https://www.france24.com/en/live-2022-french-presidential-election-%E2%80%93-first-round-results

[Logical]

Can someone find me the link of the crowd in reunion chanting Allahu Akbar in favour of Le Penn in reunion ?

Can't find that specific moment but this one's close enough.
https://twitter.com/Alexsulzer/status/1472176164823261186

Bonus
https://twitter.com/loicbesson/status/1471346181909495820

[DL]

With the 5pm turnout figures, IPSOS is projecting a 72% turnout rate, the lowest since the 1969 Presidential election.

Remind me what the turnout was in round 1? Wasn’t it something like 77% or thereabouts? You would expect some drop off when we know that at least a third of the 22% who voted for Melenchon will not vote

[Pick Up the Phone]

With the 5pm turnout figures, IPSOS is projecting a 72% turnout rate, the lowest since the 1969 Presidential election.

Remind me what the turnout was in round 1? Wasn’t it something like 77% or thereabouts? You would expect some drop off when we know that at least a third of the 22% who voted for Melenchon will not vote

How do we know that? People always sulk and claim not to vote... blah... but in the end they still do it.

[DL]

Many pills this week have had up to 38% of Mélenchon voters saying they will abstain or cast a blank ballot. Exit polling from 2017 also had high second round abstention rates among Mélenchon voters

[Hindsight was 2020]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

[Person Man]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

I assume it’s for reasons but it’s odd that people are already counting votes where it’s like 2 o’clock.

[MaxQue]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

I assume it’s for reasons but it’s odd that people are already counting votes where it’s like 2 o’clock.

They voted yesterday, as everything must be closed at 8PM France time.

[Logical]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

Some parts of Overseas France voted yesterday and the ballots were counted immediately. These results are usually leaked to the Belgian media.

[DL]

Apparently French citizens abroad are voting about 90% for Macron

[windjammer]

Blank ballot for me. Both of them can go to hell

[Hindsight was 2020]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

Some parts of Overseas France voted yesterday and the ballots were counted immediately. These results are usually leaked to the Belgian media.

Ohh okay that makes sense

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Blank ballot for me. Both of them can go to hell

Strange choice in a competive election.