French presidential election, 2022

[afleitch]

Because I'm 'that person' and couldn't sleep a few days ago, I used exit poll data and regression to predict how Scotland would have voted in the first round. And it's not too far removed from how the French expats actually voted here. Still tweaking it.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/andre_spicer/status/1517554894936449026

[Mike88]

So far, turnout is up in some of the overseas departments, compared with the first round:

Guadeloupe: 38.9% (+1.8%)
Martinique: 42.7% (+7.3%)
Guyane: 37.6% (+3.0%)
Saint-Pierre-&-Miquelon: 48.5% (+4.1%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[Hash]

Macron 2022 vs. Macron 2017:



Gains, some very strong, in traditionally right-wing areas (the notable exception being parts of the southern Massif Central particularly Lozère and Haute-Loire), and losses or only modest (below average) gains in left-wing areas, something which is of course quite clear in Paris and the Petite Couronne but also in the southwest. His biggest gains were Paris-14th (+19.4%), Paris-4th (17.2%), Hauts-de-Seine-6th [Neuilly] (+15.1%), Vendée-4th (14.1%) and Hauts-de-Seine-9th [Boulogne-Billancourt] (+13.9%). His biggest losses were nearly all in eastern Paris or Seine-Saint-Denis, notably in Paris-6th (-6.9%) and Paris-17th (-6.8%). There is a positive correlation between Macron's gains and Fillon's 2017 vote, at the constituency level (RSQ 0.39).

Mélenchon 2022 vs. Mélenchon 2017:



This map really shows how Mélenchon's gains this year were concentrated in urban areas, beginning with IDF. His biggest gains nearly all came from Seine-Saint-Denis, Paris, Val-d'Oise, Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne and nearly all of them came in constituencies where Macron did worse than in 2017 -- his biggest gains were in Val-d'Oise-8th (+18.8%), 93-2nd (+18.5%), 93-6th (+17.7%), 93-4th (+17.5%) etc.; his biggest losses were in Pas-de-Calais-10th (-6.7%), Nord-16th (-5.5%), Bouches-du-Rhône-13th (-5.1%) and Roussel's Nord-20th (-5.1%). His losses do have a lot to do with Roussel, but while there is a positive correlation between Roussel's vote and the change in the Mélenchon vote it is a very weak one (RSQ 0.15).

However, if you compare Mélenchon + Roussel in 2022 to Mélenchon alone in 2017, the map is much 'greener'



Mélenchon alone did worse than five years ago in 201 metropolitan constituencies, but Mélenchon and Roussel's combined vote was higher than Mélenchon's 2017 vote in all but 21 metropolitan constituencies. However, regardless of how you look at it, the general outline is the same: Mélenchon (alone or + Roussel's votes) got very big positive swings towards him in urban/metropolitan areas, particularly in IDF, while his vote in many non-urban areas, including rural areas and some smaller urban or old industrial areas where the PCF was formerly strong (Meurthe-et-Moselle, Gard), was far more unimpressive (even with Roussel's vote added, the positive swings were largely modest and below natl average).

After the runoff, I'll hopefully have more first round analysis/maps in addition to some runoff analysis/maps. I hope it's offering a somewhat interesting take on the results.

[afleitch]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

There's also the roughly 4 point underperformance of Le Pen in  2017 compared to the polls. Though I have a feeling they won't be out by much.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 12pm:

26.4% (+0.9% compared with the first round)

By departments:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518176963755716608?cxt=HHwWgMC57fT50pEq...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you Gaël. Fantastic maps, as always. I only wish I had your patience to deal with constituency-level maps.

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

There's also the roughly 4 point underperformance of Le Pen in  2017 compared to the polls. Though I have a feeling they won't be out by much.

There's really no way of knowing if the polls will be off by that much, and if so, in which direction. I don't think there's any consistent pattern to find in the past few electoral cycles, so I won't even hazard a guess. We'll have to find out in 6 hours or so.

[jaichind]

These turnout patterns seem like very bad news for Le Pen.  Her only chance is for anti-system Mélenchon voters to come out to vote for her and the rest of them who dislike both her and Macron but mostly dislike her more just do not vote.  It seems these turnout numbers do not indicate that this is taking place.

[afleitch]

I'm in Edinburgh right now. Tourists are back in a big way but a very significant number of French students and residents in the city centre making a day of it. Consulate seems busy. Always nice to see democracy in action.

[Umengus]

Results in Dom Tom are quite surprising...

[Umengus]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

[Umengus]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

yes. But of course, it could be quite different in mainland France

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

yes. But of course, it could be quite different in mainland France

One is clear if these are the results.  The Mélenchon surge overseas two weeks ago seems to be an anti-system surge and with Le Pen as the anti-system candidate, they leaned Le Pen.  This has always been the Le Pen hope that the Mélenchon vote is an anti-system vote and a Left vote per say.

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

I think it is Le Pen 55% in Saint Martain and 60% in Saint Barthelemy

[Person Man]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

In your opinion, how much of a chance does LePen have?

[Antonio the Sixth]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

In your opinion, how much of a chance does LePen have?

I guess the 10% or so that models are converging on seems like a decent conservative estimate, if only because of the big unknown around abstention and blank votes. The former looks like it won't be too high, thankfully, so maybe the chances of a bad surprise are falling further down.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout at 12pm:

26.4% (+0.9% compared with the first round)

By departments:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518176963755716608?cxt=HHwWgMC57fT50pEq...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518203348700524545?s=20&t=_l-3_yUje...

This pollster is somewhat right, but if you take a look at the map, it is only half the story. Turnout is also good, for example, in three of Le Pens best departments: Var, PACA, and Meuse. Rather, this just looks like a case of what we could be led to expect from the polls, where the places that had a strong Melenchon vote are the most down, since his voters are the most favorable to abstention.

Midday turnout is 26.41%, +1% on round 1, -2% on 2017.

[jaichind]

An eyeball of the first round results versus the second round in Overseas areas seems to indicate that Le Pen has won around 75%-80% of the first round Mélenchon vote.  Turnout is higher than in the first round which I would think is bad news for Len Pen but in Overseas France it does not seem to be.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg just came out with an article on market impact if Le Pen were to win. 

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30

Source: www.lalibre.be

2012 first-round results in Guadeloupe


Something took place here last 10 years to go from 2012 results to Mélenchon winning 56.2% and Len Pen winning 17.9% here in the first round and then Le Pen winning 70% on the second round.

[jaichind]

Macron most likely will win but his approval numbers are terrible when compared to his peers.

[Person Man]

Macron most likely will win but his approval numbers are terrible when compared to his peers.

The only ones that seems charismatic at all of the bigger countries  is that Mexican commie and that guy who hates white people (and probably black people). The only popular-ish big country leader is Draghi, which is good but unexpected.

[Person Man]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

In your opinion, how much of a chance does LePen have?

I guess the 10% or so that models are converging on seems like a decent conservative estimate, if only because of the big unknown around abstention and blank votes. The former looks like it won't be too high, thankfully, so maybe the chances of a bad surprise are falling further down.

I mean, winning despite only one poll 3 weeks ago saying you will by 1% does raise suspicions.