French presidential election, 2022

[omar04]

Are there any maps of the first round that sort by the number of votes cast?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

The Economist's French election model currently has Macron at 89% to win.

[kwabbit]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

The Economist's French election model currently has Macron at 89% to win.

The Economist model was too aggressive during the 2020 Presidential Election however. If Elliott Morris is still the architect of the models at the Economist, I would be surprised if this model wasn't too certain. Morris didn't seem too retrospective after his model did poorly last time.

[Oryxslayer]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

The Economist's French election model currently has Macron at 89% to win.

The Economist model was too aggressive during the 2020 Presidential Election however. If Elliott Morris is still the architect of the models at the Economist, I would be surprised if this model wasn't too certain. Morris didn't seem too retrospective after his model did poorly last time.

I saw this consistent theme also in their UK models, even though those were close to the final result.  I suspect the issue stems from not unweighting old data fast enough or assigning it too much value or not giving newer data points priority. Essentially, it lags a bit too much, so when it comes to the overall victory %, the older numbers influence the bell curve. In this instance of a runoff, the long history of Macron leads is anchoring his odds of victory probably too high, but not in a way that is likely to matter in this specific contest. For example, when the race was closer to a 3% margin, the model put it at only a 30% probability of an upset.

You can basically see this on their final projection for round 1 and how it measured to the final results. You could see Melenchon's trajectory and it wasn't a big leap to expect him to outperform the final 18-ish percent when taking into account the trendline - maybe not as much as occurred, but still a outperformance should have been expected by any model. They similarly currently put Macron at 54%, despite the most recent state of play being closer to 55/56%.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

The Economist's French election model currently has Macron at 89% to win.

I think this is a pretty conservative estimate. Le Pen’s momentum has clearly faded.

[parochial boy]

Indeed, if anything this suggests a major swing of the vaguely leftish urban bobo types toward Mélenchon (and presumably, away from Macron). Which is certainly interesting, since those are not the type of former PS, Macron-curious voters that I would have expected to come back to Mélenchon (it's certainly telling that he's down in a lot of the rural Southwest and Massif Central areas - Roussel definitely took votes away from him there, but it's still not enough to explain the underperformance).

So, the bottom line appears to be that the left vote is boboifying even further, somehow. Not a kind of trend that bodes well for its future, and should probably relativize celebrations of Mélenchon's success as indicating a future path for the French left.

Somewhat inspired by that - and apologies for the appaling quality, but I decided to compare Mélenchon in 2022 with Duclos in 1969 partly because of, conveniently, the fact they got almost identical scores



What's kind of crazy is the degree to which it is a reverse of a traditional looking map - in particular the absolute collapse in the old PCF strongholds in the Limousin and Nord-Pas-de-Calais, but the entire diagonale du vide (and the Med coast) more widely.

In contrast, the rural left wing vote does seem to be holding up in that mountainous arc that runs from the Pyrenees to the Alps and especially in the Grand Ouest. The left shift in Brittany is probably even understated given it was Jadot's strongest region. And seemingly answers the assumption that the swing to the left that had occurred in those regions was always more moderate in nature and happily decamped to Macron.

[homelycooking]

[Zinneke]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

[President Johnson]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

Yeah, I like what I see so far (fortunately, German television translates in real time). However, Macron was always rhetorically strong.

[H. Ross Peron]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

Yeah, I like what I see so far (fortunately, German television translates in real time). However, Macron was always rhetorically strong.

German TV is airing the debate live?

[Continential]

This should be a meme template.

[DaleCooper]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

A good comparison might be the 2020 Trump vs. Biden Popular Vote betting markets. Macron losing, though possible, would be such an upset that it'd be foolish to put money on it.

[Coldstream]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

To clarify, betting markets predict the winner not the margin. Ie there’s a 90% chance macron gets at least 1 vote more than Le Pen, not a chance he gets 90% of the vote.

Or, if you ran this election 10 times, Macron would win 9, Le Pen would win 1. This is the point people missed with the NYT prediction in 2016: 90% chance of X means a 1 in 10 chance of Y if those are the two options.

[afleitch]

For my own personal amusement; The 1st Round results from Scotland - Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen


Macron 36.9% -         36.3/35.7/41.7
Melenchon 31.8% -    32.2/33.6/26.7
Jadot 12.8% -           13.2/14.3/8.0
Hidalgo 4.2% -            5.2/3.8/2.1
Zemmour 3.9% -         3.5/3.1/7.1
Le Pen 3.1% -             2.5/3.7/4.0
Pecresse 2.9% -          2.9/2.4/4.0
Dupont-Aignan 1.2% - 1.2/0.5/2.8
Poutou 1.1% -             1.0/1.2/0.9
Lasalle 0.9% -             1.0/0.8/0.9
Roussel 0.7% -            0.5/0.8/1.2
Arthaud 0.3%              0.4/0.1/0.6

[adma]

This should be a meme template.

Surely a whole lot of Brett Somers "Match Game" possibilities come to mind.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

For my own personal amusement; The 1st Round results from Scotland - Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen


Macron 36.9% -         36.3/35.7/41.7
Melenchon 31.8% -    32.2/33.6/26.7
Jadot 12.8% -           13.2/14.3/8.0
Hidalgo 4.2% -            5.2/3.8/2.1
Zemmour 3.9% -         3.5/3.1/7.1
Le Pen 3.1% -             2.5/3.7/4.0
Pecresse 2.9% -          2.9/2.4/4.0
Dupont-Aignan 1.2% - 1.2/0.5/2.8
Poutou 1.1% -             1.0/1.2/0.9
Lasalle 0.9% -             1.0/0.8/0.9
Roussel 0.7% -            0.5/0.8/1.2
Arthaud 0.3%              0.4/0.1/0.6

I have some experience with the sort of French guys who end up in Aberdeen but still bother to cast votes from abroad. Can't say I'm too surprised Zemmour did better there than in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

[Mike88]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

Yeah, I like what I see so far (fortunately, German television translates in real time). However, Macron was always rhetorically strong.

German TV is airing the debate live?

Here they are also airing the debate live. But, I stopped watching the Portuguese feed because the translation was confusing and it didn't made sense. At one point, the translator said that Macron wanted to give "free social security to students" xD, and I gave up and started watching the France24 feed. Much better, and my French isn't very good but it was much clearer.

Also, Le Pen was clearly defeated, in my view. She was confusing and Macron corrected her several times about her own program. xD

[Zinneke]

Best one yet on Reddit and I haven’t even gone to French 4chan yet

If MLP is elected it would be such a disaster for France. She barely knew her own program.

[MaxQue]

Is it the 2022 debate or it's a rerun of the 2017 one?

[Alcibiades]

From what I’ve watched, Le Pen predictably embarrassing herself. Whatever you think of him, Macron’s a strong debater especially in the one-on-one format, though it’s not particularly hard to appear so when Le Pen is your opponent…

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is it the 2022 debate or it's a rerun of the 2017 one?

It sounds like MLP has at least managed to avoid sounding like a drunk lady yelling at you on the night bus home this time.

[KaiserDave]

Sounds like Macron picked her apart.

[adma]

If MLP is elected it would be such a disaster for France. She barely knew her own program.

You mean, the Rick Perry of French presidential politics?

[Mike88]

BFMTV/Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the debate:

59% Macron
39% Le Pen