French presidential election, 2022

[DL]

Can anyone explain to me what difference there is on the issues between Macron and "Les Republicains"? I realize that four years ago while there was basically zero difference on economic policy or EU policy between Macron and Francois Fillon, but there was a difference on some social issues since Fillon was an Catholic traditionalist anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ fanatic etc... and Macron was more of a "social liberal". But I get the feeling those are now old issues are very unlikely to be championed by anyone else running as the LR presidential candidate.

Which brings me back to my question - are there ANY issues that separate Macron and LR? What would make anyone vote for Bertrand over Macron or vice-versa?  

[DL]

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?   

[DL]

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?  

A sort of trite answer would be that Macron has moved on to the traditional right's turf -and that the LR and associated acts have moved into the turf of the RN.

Beyond that the old right do play up the conservative values stuff (both Pécresse and Bertrand were against marriage equality etc...) and the Macron administration does have the occasional progressive hints. So for instance they extended the right to IVF treatment to lesbian couples; Olivier Véran (the health minister) recently announced that female contraception would be covered by health insurance and snapped back against the proposals going round to get rid of the allocation de rentrée scolaire (money to cover school expenses). These are all things that you would never see coming from the traditional right. So even despite the xenophobic turn, there are still visible elements of the progressive/social liberal image he presented in 2017.

OK, I get that Macron is not exactly the ideological successor to Charles DeGaulle - but he strikes me as ideologically a bit of a modern day version of Valery Giscard d'Estaing (who as you may recall positioned himself in the 1970s and the modern socially liberal version of the French right) or of Edouard Balladur. Even Chirac seemed to govern as a pretty socially moderate president. So I return to my original question, if you are Bertrand or Pecresse - what is the argument for why I should vote for you and not Macron? Would an LR president run on a platform of wanting to repeal same sex marriage and outlaw abortion rights? What else have they got as an issue?

[DL]

A microcosm of that Europe vs America perspective on social issues and immigration can be seen in Canada in the stark contrast in attitudes between Quebec and the rest of Canada. English Canada (for the most part) embraces multiculturalism and diversity and it would be unthinkable that any jurisdiction outside Quebec would ever try to restrict what clothes religious people are allowed to wear etc... and there is literally ZERO debate about whether or not Canada should accept immigrants from Muslim countries etc... In contrast in Quebec - which is very socially liberal on things like the environment and LGBTQ rights etc... - there is this wave of extreme xenophobia when it comes to immigration or of anyone who looks at all different from the majority. I think francophone Quebecers likely consume a lot of media from France and so they have jumped on this "laicite" bandwagon which is really just a smokescreen for discrimination. There are now very draconian "France-style" laws in Quebec that bar anyone who wears any religious symbols or clothes from working in the entire broader public sector etc...and attitudes towards minorities and immigrants are invariably much more hostile in Quebec than in the rest of Canada - even though immigration to Quebec is low by Canadian standards and most Quebecers (unless they live in Montreal) have likely never seen a Muslim woman wearing a hihjab in their lives...but i digress 

[DL]

In a hypothetical run-off between Macron (le President pour les riches) and Zemmour (le President pour les plus riches) - who would working class, lower income people vote for? Or would they stay home in larger than usual numbers?

[DL]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier for him to beat by a wide margin? What would be the longterm implications for French politics and for the legislative elections is LePen failed to make the run-off?

[DL]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier to beat by a wide margin.

Weirdly polls suggest Zemmour is defeated by a wider margin ATM.

Why do you say "weirdly"? That doesn't surprise me at all. He seems even more extreme and unhinged than LePen and on top of that LePen has made some effort to appeal to working class voters by having a bit of "socially conservative, economically populist" positioning that features way more government largesse etc... From what i have read Zemmour is more of an orthodox free party rightwinger who wants massive cuts and austerity - surely there are a lot of LePen voters who would find that very unappealing

[DL]

Would actually matter in terms of the medium prospects of the parties etc... whether Macron faces LePen or Zemmour in the second round?

Although the RN has almost no seats due to the electoral system, they are a factor in legislative elections, while Zemmour has no party at all. If LePen failed to qualify for the second ballot I'm just wondering if that would be seen as a major humiliation for the RN and cause them to bleed support in the legislative elections - not sure who would benefit from that?

I'm also curious whether LePen and Zemmour would each endorse the other in a a second round against Macron or is there too much bad blood and rivalry between them for that to ever happen?

[DL]

I decided to be a masochist and watch the Zemmour video. I was struck right off the bat by two things:

1. The video makes all these evocations to French "grandeur" (some would say "delusions of grandeur") - and yet the entire soundtrack is Beethoven - who was German! You'd think he'd at least find some inspirational French music.

2. So many xenophobic references to "the other" and a message of hate towards anyone who isn't traditional French, white catholic etc.... and yet Zemmour himself is a rather foreign looking little nebbish who is himself a North African Jew - in other words he himself personifies the exact type of person who the French right has traditionally "othered" and vilified...

Then again, it was often noted that some of leading Nazis who went on and on about the German master race were very UNaryan-looking weaklings (i.e. Hitler and Himmler). Hitler was rather dark and swarthy and was rumoured to be part Jewish and Himmler was apparently a very effeminate child who played with dolls and would dress like a girl...he went on to spearhead the Nazi attempt to exterminate gay men....sigh. Its almost too facile to see the self-hate at work with these guys

[DL]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

[DL]

If you are Macron who do you WANT LR to run? Ciotti or Pecresse or does it matter?

[DL]

I had never even heard of Ciotti before. Who is he?

[DL]

Regardless of whether LR ends up with Ciotti or Pecresse, is there any scenario where either of them makes it into the second round in the spring?

[DL]

Apparently Zemmour is creating a party to be called “Reconquete”. Sounds like the “reconquista” in French…and the Reconquista is when Spain expelled or murdered all Jews and Muslims….caveat emptor

[DL]

Supposedly Zemmour is Jewish and yet he spreads anti-Semitic memes about Dreyfus having been guilty and he supports the French collaboration with the Nazis in Vichy France under Petain.

[DL]

Why is Hidalgo even running for President? She has zero chance of making the run-off and she already has a very big job as mayor of Paris. How does it help her politically to get distracted with a suicidal presidential run that can only end in disaster? Why not just focus on being Madame Paris?

[DL]

Imagine of the run-off actually ended up being Macron vs Pecresse! I think Macron would still be heavily favoured and alot of LePen voters would stay home...but symbolically it would be a big deal to knock the two facsists (LePen and Zemmour) out of the run-off and instead have a more conventional conservative in the run-off against Macron.

It would be the most exciting run-off since Georges Pompidou vs Alain Poher in 1969 (that was a joke)

[DL]

Pecresse isnt much better than Le Pen.

I'm aware of that. Though from what I've heard Pecresse is someone with a very mainstream, French establishment pedigree who is opportunistically singing from the LePen song book to get votes - but she probably doesn't believe most of what she's saying. Its like George Bush Sr. running Willy Horton ads etc...privately he found it distasteful - but he was still willing to say and do anything to win

[DL]

All of the right-wing politicians are also doing some sort of pilgrimage to Armenia because its a core constituency.

Do you mean America? Why would French politicians care about Armenia?

Third largest Armenian diaspora community.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians_in_France

Including Charles Aznavour!

[DL]

I'm trying to imagine the dynamics of the Macron vs Pecresse run-off. It would be "le president pour les riches" vs "la presidente pour les encore plus riches"

I could see Zemmour's voters viewing Pecresse as a  "lesser of two evils" in a second round, but what would happen to LePen's 'poor white trash" voter base if she was eliminated? Would they abstain en masse? Would they split evenly? Would they go for a Versailles style elitist aristocrat like Pecresse?

[DL]

Hasn't a segment of the PS moved into Macron's party as well? Let's not forget that Macron got his start as Economics Minister in Francois Hollande's government so he has likely sucked up a lot of the more "third way"/centrist types from the PS

[DL]

I wonder if the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a factor in France. It could lead to more scrutiny of how LePen, Zemmour and Melenchon support Putin and presumably will cheer on the invasion. There will also be more stories about how Putin funds various far right and far left political parties in France

[DL]

I wonder if the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a factor in France. It could lead to more scrutiny of how LePen, Zemmour and Melenchon support Putin and presumably will cheer on the invasion. There will also be more stories about how Putin funds various far right and far left political parties in France

I'm not a Mélenchon fan but even he condemned the invasion in Ukraine. And which parties of the far left8 are funded by Putin exactly, where did you get this idea ?

We know for a fact that Putin funds LePen's Ralliement Nationale - and its common knowledge that the Russians will funnel money to any politicians or parties in the west that oppose liberal democracy and parrot Putin's talking points - so its hard to belive that he wouldn't be sending money to Melanchon and co

[DL]

I have my doubts such a conservative government is sending money to Melenchon’s party, a person whose contacts in Russia entirely consist of the social democrats in the Left Bloc who are incredibly opposed to the war in Ukraine and have several mid-level party leaders in jail. Melenchon’s party, made up of social democrats who were previously aligned with parties that backed Trotsky, who established a tradition of #bothsides critiques of the USSR and NATO, would leave en masse if this was discovered by the upper echelons given LFI’s highly democratic and fractured structure.

YOu seem to have this crazy idea that Putin gives a damn about the domestic ideologies of the parties he covertly backs in the west. He would not care if LFI wants to increase spending on health care or bring in some environmental policies - all he cares about is creating as much disruption as possible and the only litmus test is if a party and its leader is willing to be an apologist for his Russian imperialist aggressions. I'm sure Putin views his leftwing apologists like Jeremy Corbyn or Glenn Greenwald as "useful idiots" 

[DL]

What’s Roussel’s policy on Russia?

All I know about Roussel is that he in favour of people eating steak!