French presidential election, 2022

[Umengus]

last polls have mariani (RN) wining PACA. (52-48, opinion way, today)

[Umengus]

In other news, Zemmour (...) has gone completely off the rails and Le Pen/RN is essentially accusing him of being too extreme.

not completely off but he did some serious mistakes, concercing petain and dreyfus especially.

Polls begin to show zemmour declining, at least a little.

MLP continues her visits on the ground where she seems quite popular

[Umengus]

He's also been doing the thing about Vichy protecting Jews, but that's not new.

What caught a lot of people's attention was his tirade about 'criminal' François Hollande letting in immigrants causing the Bataclan terror attacks, at the memorial no less. For this he was rebuked by Jordan Bardella and Marion-Maréchal Le Pen.

So, all in all, not a propitious few weeks in French politics.

he's right on this. Hollande said one week ago  that he knew that there were terrorists amongst refugees but he did nothing. At this time, (fake news) medias say that it was not true. But it was.

[Umengus]

last ifop poll

Macron: 25 =
MLP: 19 +3
Z: 14 -3
Bertrand 13 =
Melanchon 7,5 -1
Jadot 7 =
Hidalgo 6 +1

Macron: 54- (-2)
MLP: 46 (+2)

So another poll confirming the decline of zemmour, who just had an eventful visit to Marseille, which ended in a middle finger to a leftist who had done so previously. That would have been disqualifying 20 years ago. Today, not so much.

[Umengus]

It makes perfect sense to consider nominating a candidate proposing a mixture of hardcore neoliberalism and fascism as there is such a massive shortage of both amongst the candidates already declared.

ciotti is not fascist. And not "neoliberal".

[Umengus]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

[Umengus]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

He didn't have a favourable vote transfer environment. All 3 drop outs were closer to Pecresse.

But it's also Umengus being Umengus and spinning even the slightest thing in the right's favour. You have to understand him, he comes from a political environment where his cucked right-wing party celebrate coming 7th place in the entire country and their leader not even elected by preference votes.

I remember Al saying that Umengus is a supporter of VB.

I'm just conservative, in the US expression.

[Umengus]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

He didn't have a favourable vote transfer environment. All 3 drop outs were closer to Pecresse.

But it's also Umengus being Umengus and spinning even the slightest thing in the right's favour. You have to understand him, he comes from a political environment where his cucked right-wing party celebrate coming 7th place in the entire country and their leader not even elected by preference votes.

it's a shame that modrikamen was not elected. But I live in a socialiste paradise so...

But indeed, it's a good result for ciotti considering the environement. And considering that ciotti is not a very charismatic guy.

[Umengus]

Supposedly Zemmour is Jewish and yet he spreads anti-Semitic memes about Dreyfus having been guilty and he supports the French collaboration with the Nazis in Vichy France under Petain.

you can think that dreyfus was guilty (he was not guilty) without to be antisemite. And Zemmour doesn't support vichy but he adheres to the theory of "the sword (de Gaulle) and the shield (Pétain)" (and he's wrong again)

[Umengus]

Based on polls, the most surprising  is that pecresse takes votes from Le pen but few from macron.

The last ipsos poll:

Macron: 25
MLP: 16
Pecresse: 16
Z: 14
Melanchon: 8
Jadot: 7
Hidalgo: 5

[Umengus]

Well, if you want, er, news - Zemmour launched his campaign in a predictably unpleasant style. Journalists from the independent news outlet Mediapart and TV show Le  Quotidien (both firmly anti-Zemmour, although the former has rather more integrity than the latter) were apparently harrassed and threatened. Then, anti-racist campaigners were beaten up after they revealed t-shirts with the slogan "no to racism".

All in all, about what you'd expect really.

The slightlier scarier side was that in response to this, the newly crowned LR candidate, and her defeated opponent - clearly outraged by the events - both agreed something more or less along the lines of "the protestors got what was coming to them" (provocation you see). Pécresse then added some both sides stuff about the "extreme left" being violent too. For context, recent weeks in France have seen a spate of far right terrorist plots foiled by the security forces; there have been numerous documented cases of aggressions against migrants and left wing activists - notably in Lyon, of course, some traditions never change.

In any case, yes, it is obviously the extreme left and it's "iel" pronoun that is the problem here.

lol. you just forget to say the zemmour was assaulted by a guy. And left protesters outside the meeting were found with acid and molotov cocktails on them.

[Umengus]

Well, if you want, er, news - Zemmour launched his campaign in a predictably unpleasant style. Journalists from the independent news outlet Mediapart and TV show Le  Quotidien (both firmly anti-Zemmour, although the former has rather more integrity than the latter) were apparently harrassed and threatened. Then, anti-racist campaigners were beaten up after they revealed t-shirts with the slogan "no to racism".

All in all, about what you'd expect really.

The slightlier scarier side was that in response to this, the newly crowned LR candidate, and her defeated opponent - clearly outraged by the events - both agreed something more or less along the lines of "the protestors got what was coming to them" (provocation you see). Pécresse then added some both sides stuff about the "extreme left" being violent too. For context, recent weeks in France have seen a spate of far right terrorist plots foiled by the security forces; there have been numerous documented cases of aggressions against migrants and left wing activists - notably in Lyon, of course, some traditions never change.

In any case, yes, it is obviously the extreme left and it's "iel" pronoun that is the problem here.

lol. you just forget to say the zemmour was assaulted by a guy. And left protesters outside the meeting were found with acid and molotov cocktails on them.

and we learned yesterday that the former spokesperson for Generation Identitaire was allegedly sexually assaulted by a Tunisian migrant at her home.

[Umengus]

The guy who assaulted Zemmour is a Les Républicains member. And more to the point, I haven't exactly seen anyone, and certainly not any left wing political figures, trying to justify it. So rather different in that respect.

But good to know that excuses violence against non-violent anti-racism protestors.

Zemmour has condemned the violence at his meeting.

And the problem is not to justify but to condemn.

Considering the guy who assulted zemmour, he would have joined the Republicans only a month ago and has a solid criminal record. Not clear, for now.

[Umengus]

Well, if you want, er, news - Zemmour launched his campaign in a predictably unpleasant style. Journalists from the independent news outlet Mediapart and TV show Le  Quotidien (both firmly anti-Zemmour, although the former has rather more integrity than the latter) were apparently harrassed and threatened. Then, anti-racist campaigners were beaten up after they revealed t-shirts with the slogan "no to racism".

All in all, about what you'd expect really.

The slightlier scarier side was that in response to this, the newly crowned LR candidate, and her defeated opponent - clearly outraged by the events - both agreed something more or less along the lines of "the protestors got what was coming to them" (provocation you see). Pécresse then added some both sides stuff about the "extreme left" being violent too. For context, recent weeks in France have seen a spate of far right terrorist plots foiled by the security forces; there have been numerous documented cases of aggressions against migrants and left wing activists - notably in Lyon, of course, some traditions never change.

In any case, yes, it is obviously the extreme left and it's "iel" pronoun that is the problem here.

lol. you just forget to say the zemmour was assaulted by a guy. And left protesters outside the meeting were found with acid and molotov cocktails on them.

Source Mr Propaganda

Liberation confirms that one coktail molotov was found. And 62 people arrested.

[Umengus]

Well, if you want, er, news - Zemmour launched his campaign in a predictably unpleasant style. Journalists from the independent news outlet Mediapart and TV show Le  Quotidien (both firmly anti-Zemmour, although the former has rather more integrity than the latter) were apparently harrassed and threatened. Then, anti-racist campaigners were beaten up after they revealed t-shirts with the slogan "no to racism".

All in all, about what you'd expect really.

The slightlier scarier side was that in response to this, the newly crowned LR candidate, and her defeated opponent - clearly outraged by the events - both agreed something more or less along the lines of "the protestors got what was coming to them" (provocation you see). Pécresse then added some both sides stuff about the "extreme left" being violent too. For context, recent weeks in France have seen a spate of far right terrorist plots foiled by the security forces; there have been numerous documented cases of aggressions against migrants and left wing activists - notably in Lyon, of course, some traditions never change.

In any case, yes, it is obviously the extreme left and it's "iel" pronoun that is the problem here.

lol. you just forget to say the zemmour was assaulted by a guy. And left protesters outside the meeting were found with acid and molotov cocktails on them.

Source Mr Propaganda

Liberation confirms that one coktail molotov was found. And 62 people arrested.

Post a link

Last sentence.

https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/est-il-vrai-que-des-cocktails-molotov-et-des-bouteilles-dacide-ont-ete-confisques-en-marge-du-meeting-deric-zemmour-20211209_I7SIX45HERHCZLWZHQNBRM7BZY/?utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS7-51-&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639063286

[Umengus]

the rise of le pen is fueled big by inflation.

The brazilian poll is the first to show le pen win (vs Macron) but french pollsters are not far behind: harris has  Le pen at 48,5 %, Ipsos (the least fav to lepen) at 47 %, ifop at 47,5 M-%,...

If sunday, Le pen (and the "right bloc": zemmour, pecresse,...) does better than predicted, Le pen will have a good shot to win.

[Umengus]

the rise of le pen is fueled big by inflation.

The brazilian poll is the first to show le pen win (vs Macron) but french pollsters are not far behind: harris has  Le pen at 48,5 %, Ipsos (the least fav to lepen) at 47 %, ifop at 47,5 M-%,...

If sunday, Le pen (and the "right bloc": zemmour, pecresse,...) does better than predicted, Le pen will have a good shot to win.

Odoxa:

Sondage Odoxa pour
@lobs
 :
- Macron : 28%
- Le Pen : 24%
- Mélenchon : 16%
- Zemmour : 8%
- Pécresse : 7%
- Jadot : 5%
- Lassalle : 3%
- Roussel : 3%
- Dupont-Aignan : 2%
- Hidalgo : 2%
- Arthaud : 0.5%
- Poutou : 0.5%

Second tour :
- Macron : 55%
- Le Pen : 45%

[Umengus]

The citing of Chevènement is because the mythology of the man's anti-EU stance is important for some "left" types who are behind the Front Populaire magazine for example and might be tempted by Le Pen's "sovereignty above ideology". A visible example is Natachy Polony, but you also have Kuzmanovic, Onfray, a bunch of others who

But let's not call these people left-wing. They are, for all intents and purposes, Neo-Strasserites.

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

100% this too. Even if Macron wins in fact, LREM are such an incompentent force in terms of on the ground activism that his "guarenteed majority" is up for grabs afterwards. This why incidentally Jadot, Hidalgo, and Roussel are still running. They know they won't be President but they need the exposure for their parties to hold on and potentially even gain from the legislatives right after. That and their deposit.

If macron wins, I don't see another party than en marche to win the majority.

If MLP wins, I see a strong RN-Z-LR (partly) alliance. Probably to win a majority. But maybe not.

[Umengus]

last elabe poll:

 Emmanuel #Macron : 26% (-2)
🔵 Marine #LePen : 25% (+2)
🔴 Jean-Luc #Mélenchon : 17,5% (+2)
⚫️ Éric #Zemmour : 8,5% (-0,5)
🟠 Valérie #Pécresse : 8%

Macron: 51 (-2)
Le pen: 49 (+2)

[Umengus]

In other news, Taubira decides to back Mélenchon. This is a little surprising to me, she seems much more fiscally liberal (in the classical sense) than him. Hidalgo can't catch a break.

I nay have misunderstood her, but I also saw Segolene Royal calling for a Melenchon vote?

correct. "le vote utile"

[Umengus]

Jesus, France....

The last thing we need right now is a rogue nationalist in an EU-leading state. Can you imagine what the back half of this decade is going to look like in a Le Pen-BoJo-Fd'I-Trump world? Putin will be invading every European country on its border.

with what ?

[Umengus]

Results in Dom Tom are quite surprising...

[Umengus]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

[Umengus]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

yes. But of course, it could be quite different in mainland France

[Umengus]

from la libre, 3 "exit polls" give Macron between 55-58 %.