French presidential election, 2022

[jaichind]

Apparently Zemmour is creating a party to be called “Reconquete”. Sounds like the “reconquista” in French…and the Reconquista is when Spain expelled or murdered all Jews and Muslims….caveat emptor

Zemmour is Jewish so I doubt that is the image he had in mind.  Besides the Reconquista is not about the expelling and murder of Jews and Muslims.  No more than the Umayyad conquest of Hispania is about the murder of Christians.  That only took place at the very end of the 700-year process.  During most of Reconquista if you had the "wrong religion" on either side of the various kingdoms you just paid an extra tax and that was the end of it. 

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/25/francois-hollande-says-ready-comeback-french-left-descends-chaos/?utm_content=world%20news&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1643123716

Just in case the French left wasn't divided enough.

Wow.  This reminds me of all the various Hillary Clinton comeback rumors.

[jaichind]

There is some overlap between Mélenchon and Le Pen.  I assume that is the anti-system vote.

[jaichind]

Wow, what a Le Pen surge in the latest poll.  It seems there is a significant anti-system anti-establishment Mélenchon->Le Pen vote if this latest poll is accurate.

[jaichind]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

To that end, Melenchon is probably an obstacle rather than an ally, so everyone should hope he just decides not to run because of age reasons. Setting aside all of his problems for the moment, the man's coalition electorally seems to constantly be a case of comparatively high floor but too low ceiling. Therefore, he can never make the runoff unless the overall vote is sufficiently split. As long as a chunk of voters see him has the best option, there will be a smaller pool for any other progressive candidate to appeal to.

Is this not more about Macron not running in future elections than Melenchon not running in the future.  It seems to me Macron sucks the oxygen out of traditional Left and traditional Right candidates leaving the field for the non-mainstream Left and non-mainstream Right as the alternatives.  Once Macron moves on I think the balance will shift back.

[jaichind]

Looks like a Mélenchon surge in the overseas vote assuming the data posted on Twitter are accurate

[jaichind]

Amusing that Pécresse and Hidalgo are being referred to as 'mainstream' candidates, when these results clearly show that they are fringe candidates.

Or Macron took their votes.  Still, by my count, non-mainstream candidates won a vote share greater than 50% by a good margin.

[jaichind]

Ifop poll for the 2nd round:

51% Macron
49% Le Pen

Conducted during 10 April after 8pm. 1,000 voters polled.

Looks like a lot of Melenchón voters are rejected his call for no vote for Le Pen.

[jaichind]

Ifop poll for the 2nd round:

51% Macron
49% Le Pen

Conducted during 10 April after 8pm. 1,000 voters polled.

Looks like a lot of Melenchón voters are rejected his call for no vote for Le Pen.

Take the polls with a huge grain of salt. In the first round, many voters concentrated their votes in Macron to block Le Pen from coming on top. Close polls like these for the second round could motivate non 1st round voters to get out and cast a ballot for Macron.

Of course. But that does not invalidate my statement about Melenchón voters if this poll is anywhere close to being accurate.

[jaichind]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

I'll add my two cents.  Although I'm not an expert on French politics, I read French newspapers fairly regularly and I watch French television news probably three or four times per week, mostly on the elliptical.  The predictions from the talking heads are mostly that the second tour will be a rematch of 2017 but with a tighter results.  Predictions range from 51-49 to 55-45.  Remember that 2017 was 66-44 (not counting null ballots, which amounted to nearly 12% of the overall.)  

Even Valérie Pécresse says that she will not vote for Le Pen, and is urging her supporters not to do so.  Click here and scroll down to "20:23 L’essentiel" to read more (in French).  

It is worth noting, however, that things are different now than in 2017.  First, Le Pen has pivoted slightly, moderating some of her more radical ideas.  Also, Macron managed to alienate many people with his domestic agenda over the past five years (proposed fuel surcharges, social reforms, suggested changes to la retraite, perceived ineffectiveness during the coronavirus confinement, etc.)  Finally, Zemmour and other rightist candidates have pledged to support Le Pen, which gives many RN supporters hope.  

One interesting graphic from Le Monde shows how their support is at an all-time high:



I'd still guess that Macron gets reelected to a second five-year mandat.  Time will tell.

Bon courage.

On the graphic, I thought it was the father and not the daughter that ran in 2007.

[jaichind]

Le Pen has to campaign as the anti-system candidate and hope that a large bloc of Melenchon voters is not Left voters as such but anti-system voters.   She has to paint Macron as the candidate of the system and that she is the only hope for anyone that wants or desires change.

[jaichind]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

But had there been signs of Leftist consolidation around Melenchon on the ground would not that have provoked a Zemmour -> Le Pen tactical voting on response?

[jaichind]

Is there going to be a debate?

[jaichind]

These turnout patterns seem like very bad news for Le Pen.  Her only chance is for anti-system Mélenchon voters to come out to vote for her and the rest of them who dislike both her and Macron but mostly dislike her more just do not vote.  It seems these turnout numbers do not indicate that this is taking place.

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

So the Mélenchon voters there from 2 weeks ago went to Le Pen? Wow, how exciting if true.

yes. But of course, it could be quite different in mainland France

One is clear if these are the results.  The Mélenchon surge overseas two weeks ago seems to be an anti-system surge and with Le Pen as the anti-system candidate, they leaned Le Pen.  This has always been the Le Pen hope that the Mélenchon vote is an anti-system vote and a Left vote per say.

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30
Martinique 60-40
Guyane 60-40

Source: www.lalibre.be

I think it is Le Pen 55% in Saint Martain and 60% in Saint Barthelemy

[jaichind]

An eyeball of the first round results versus the second round in Overseas areas seems to indicate that Le Pen has won around 75%-80% of the first round Mélenchon vote.  Turnout is higher than in the first round which I would think is bad news for Len Pen but in Overseas France it does not seem to be.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg just came out with an article on market impact if Le Pen were to win. 

[jaichind]

Le Pen wins:

Guadeloupe 70-30

Source: www.lalibre.be

2012 first-round results in Guadeloupe


Something took place here last 10 years to go from 2012 results to Mélenchon winning 56.2% and Len Pen winning 17.9% here in the first round and then Le Pen winning 70% on the second round.

[jaichind]

Macron most likely will win but his approval numbers are terrible when compared to his peers.

[jaichind]

Macron wins with 57.3-58.2

[jaichind]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

[jaichind]

Its interesting to see that in some communes in which Zemmour did (relatively) great, Le Pen is getting fewer voters than Le Pen + Zemmour combined.

I can understand that.  Some of Zemmour's voters are fairly economically right-wing and for sure would vote Macron over Le Pen for economic reasons.  If I voted in France I would have most likely voted Zemmour first round and depending on if I was focused on economic or cultural issues could have easily voted Marcon second round.

[jaichind]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

This is not true - I definitely saw an exit poll that had Macron winning 18-24 year olds 61/39.

Sorry when I said "did better" I mean in a relative sense.  That Le Pen did better with the youth relative to older voters.  Same with gender.  Le Pen did better with women voters relative to male voters.