French presidential election, 2022

[Middle-aged Europe]

BFMTV/Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the debate:

59% Macron
39% Le Pen

That looks suspiciously similar to an actual election result that should be expected now.

[Tintrlvr]

There was a guy out on my street in NYC today canvassing French tourists (and expats, I suppose) to vote for Macron. I thought it was kind of funny.

[Hash]

Some while ago I shared graphs of Ipsos' analysis data of the first rounds - now, with some delay, here is Ifop's data, both equivalent and some additional details. My warnings about small subsamples, MOE etc. obviously stands.

Gender


Age

Unlike Ipsos, Ifop doesn't find a strong-ish far-right vote for Panzergirl and Zemmour with 18-24 young voters (Zemmour is in fact weakest here, and Panzergirl is at 18% rather than 26%), and Mélenchon's dominance is even bigger. Broad patterns in other age groups quite similar, though.

CSP

Basically Ifop finds Mélenchon to be stronger with manual workers (27 vs 23 in Ipsos), but weaker with the cadres and intermediate-grades.

Employment status


Diploma/education


Income


Religion

Unlike Ipsos, this data comes from a separate poll for La Croix. Now, for obvious reasons, I have very strong doubts about the 'regularly practicing Catholics' subsample here - I'd trust Ipsos' numbers far more! On the other hand, the Muslim numbers here are very interesting: Mélenchon is absolutely dominant, with nearly 70% (!) - not very surprising, given that all other major candidates engaged in various shades of, uh, you know. In 2017, the Muslim vote (per Ifop) was: Mélenchon 37%, Macron 24%, Hamon 17%, Fillon 10%, Le Pen 5%.

Union membership

This also comes from a separate poll.

Partisan self-identification

(lol at the PS numbers)

2017 presidential vote


2017 presidential vote - runoff


2012 presidential vote

Very interesting stats! For Macron, the numbers compared to Ifop's same poll in 2017 show how his electorate moved right: in 2017, 45.5% of his electorate had voted Flanby in 2012 and only 17% had voted for Sarkozy -- put otherwise, only 17% of Sarkozy's 2012 voters went to Macron in 2017, while 48% of Flanby's 2012 vote had gone to Macron in 2017. Macron still does retain a sizable chunk of voters who were 'left-leaning' pre-2017 (left leaning enough to vote Flanby in 2012), so I guess you could say the realignment he caused was not ephemeral. But still, his 2022 base is much more right-wing than in 2017...

Ideology

There was no similar question from them in 2017 on this but there was a question from Ipsos on similar wording in 2017 (unfortunately, the 'neither left nor right' response was scrapped here by Ifop, which is a shame). Macron still wins over a broad centrist electorate straddling left and right, but more right-leaning now: 39% of 'centre-leftists' voted Macron as did 55% of 'centre-rightists', and 23% of 'right-wingers'. In 2017, Macron won (per Ipsos): 23% of 'left-wingers', 47% of 'rather left-wing', 60% of centrists and 23% of 'rather right-wing'. By makeup, Macron's 2022 electorate is 44% centre-right, 27% centre-left, 21% right-wing and 7% left-wing.

[Velasco]

Macron wins in a landslide anong rhe most affluent, better educated and older chaps. Is this sociologically "mainstream right"?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I watched the debate live last night and I guess I broadly agree with the pundit consensus. Le Pen did a lot better than in 2017 and avoided any catastrophic mistake that would have risked collapsing her support. She was at her strongest talking about bread-and-butter issues (her proposals are sh*t but she has the advantage of channeling French people's lived experiences in a way Macron as the incumbent just can't). She stumbled badly on Russia and Europe, and later on institutional issues, where Macron completely skewered her. Macron was very aggressive this time, arguably coming across as condescending or at least not shaking off the image of arrogance he's always had hanging around him. But ultimately that allowed him to point out all the flaws and inconsistencies in Le Pen's program, and that should convince some voters that's she's simply too much of a risk.

The debate probably won't change much overall, which is good for Macron obviously. I don't think we should predict a complete Le Pen collapse like in 2017, at least not yet, but neither should it be too close like some pre-first round polls indicated.

[Oryxslayer]

The debate probably won't change much overall, which is good for Macron obviously. I don't think we should predict a complete Le Pen collapse like in 2017, at least not yet, but neither should it be too close like some pre-first round polls indicated.

All polls today are staying firm in the 55/56% range, or coming in line with that herding, for better or for worse. Despite including some 20th responses, these polls ended before the debate. We will obviously get 2 more days of polling that might show something different, but if I were to hazard a guess, the debate might freeze the electorate around this percentage. Melenchon voters now have a visible sign that demonstrates Macron's lead, so one no longer might see any reason to keep slowly migrating from abstention to Macron.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517040454335926274?s=20&t=A8aGSLLPB...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517041676228911107?s=20&t=A8aGSLLPB...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517042902362329088?s=20&t=A8aGSLLPB...

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist model is now up to 93% for Macron.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE! Scholz, Sanchez, and Costa endorse Macron unendorse Le Pen in joint editorial for Le Monde:

https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/04/21/nous-avons-besoin-d-une-france-qui-defende-nos-valeurs-europeennes-communes-plaident-les-chefs-de-gouvernement-portugais-espagnol-et-allemand_6123086_3232.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

While we prepare for the upcoming runoff, here's a bit more about the man who didn't qualify for it. Since a lot of maps of the Mélenchon vote have already been posted, I made this one based on his percentage of registered voters rather than of valid votes, to better capture his overall support. I also tried to experiment a little with continuous color scales. Still not sure how I feel about it (it seems to work better in some maps than others), but it was worth an attempt.



Not a ton of surprise there, but the IdF concentration of Mélenchon's support stands out even more. In the rest of mainland France, Mélenchon actually declined slightly as a percentage of registered voters (from 15.02% to 14.82%). The areas where Mélenchon gained are...interesting. That includes almost the entirety of the Eastern side of the hexagon, especially Alsace and Rhône-Alpes, as well as in a few departments that are home to major emerging metropoles like Haute-Garonne. So overall, another confirmation of what we were talking about with PB regarding the "metropolitan" nature of the left's gains this year. Admittedly the picture would not be as stark with Roussel included, and I should probably make a map comparing Mélenchon'17 to Mélenchon+Roussel'22 next.

[Mike88]

The debate had the lowest viewing share ever: Just 15,6 million viewers.

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1517079971969343488?cxt=HHwWgIC9kcuM4I...

[wbrocks67]

I mean, given peoples TV watching patterns, it was only down 2M viewers from 10 years ago. That's not bad at all.

[Coldstream]

I mean, given peoples TV watching patterns, it was only down 2M viewers from 10 years ago. That's not bad at all.

Agreed, an audience share chart would be more useful.

[President Johnson]

The TV ratings seem to confirm that there's a lack of enthusiasm for the election in general. I guess turnout will be lower than last time around, possibly the lowest in recent French elections. I just hope this doesn't lead to unpleasant surprise in the end, since anti-LePen voters stay home, assuming Macron wins reelection anyway. Some folks also stayed home in 2016 because they thought Hillary had this in the bag.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

I guess this is because this age group is most distressed economically? The irony here, of course, is that LePen's economic policies and her anti-EU stances would sink the French economy.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

Are French millennials conservative leaning or something? I get that they don't love Macron but this is like Millennials in the US just choosing to vote Trump out of spite?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

Are French millennials conservative leaning or something? I get that they don't love Macron but this is like Millennials in the US just choosing to vote Trump out of spite?

The correct way to view this is that young people make up the majority of the round 2 abstainers who went Melenchon in round 1. Which shouldn't be surprising given political culture. When you are examining a pool smaller than the universe of voters, and one that has self-selected to exclude much of the left, you are left with a result that is only representative of a fraction of the whole.

In fact, one should look at every subsample that does not include the abstention from r1 in mind. How many people are missing, and how much does this slant the electorate? To this end, I recommend actually looking at the polls pdfs, cause the abstentions are included in these but often not discussed in the press releases.

As far as 25-34/35-49 goes, this also shouldn't be surprising. The European far right does best with the middle aged groups, and this is Le Pen's normal base.

[Hash]

Interesting polling data from Ifop about vote choice by media (print, radio, TV) consumption habits:

Nightly news:


More proof that 24h news channels are a cancer on society and rots brains, and that I should watch Arte even more. TF1's right-wing lean is now split between Macron and the far-right.

Radio:


Yeah, no surprise, I only listen to Radio France.

Newspapers and magazines:



No surprise, far-right rag Valeurs Actuelles had 49% support for the far-right. As for the rest, well, it's clear confirmation that Mélenchon coalesced the left very well.

Various TV shows/channels:


*pretends to be shocked* as regular CNEWS viewers lean to the far-right.

[parochial boy]

Are French millennials conservative leaning or something? I get that they don't love Macron but this is like Millennials in the US just choosing to vote Trump out of spite?

I would avoid reading too, too much into that one poll. The general pattern there resembles most polling but are a little more... extreme. For example Odoxa's last effort had Macron winning 18-24s by 61-39; and losing ~55-45 among all working age groups. IFOP was 58-42 for Macron among the youngest voters and 53-47 in favour of Macron among the 25-34 year old ones.

Broadly though, young people in France aren't conservative no - They gave Mélenchon huge numbers (around 40% in the youngest group, and mid-30s for the 25-34 group as well as an overvote for Jadot in both age groups). As Oryxslayer mentioned, a lot of those Mélenchon voters will abstain in round two - and probably more so in the typically low turnout group that is younger voters. So you have your explanation mostly there.

More widely though, there always has been an over vote for the RN among working age people. Explanations vary but often relate to the often difficult experiences that people in lower socioeconomic classes have when they enter the world of work; the trials and difficulties of adulthood; having to deal with bad public services; suddenly lowered expectations of life; long drives to work (cf the gilets jaunes or petrol prices at the moment) and all the rest. All things that tend to push them towards an RN vote, or at least a constestary one, where both Méluche and Le Pen do well.

In contrast, retirees, for obvious reasons, have more to benefit from the way things are. As in, live off savings or pensions and don't have much of an interest in the sort of radical politics that might disrupt things. In addition to this, they also often grew up in a more politicised era, with memories of WW2 that disincline them to voting for the far right. Although this is probably declining actually as those days are dissapearing further and further into the past. A bigger factor is probably the simple fact that older people simply tend to be more likely to come from a more privileged social class as the rich just live longer. Something like one in four "ouvriers" is actually dead before they are 65, which just mechanically reduces the number of old working class people who would be inclined to vote for the far right relative to wealthy old people, a very Macron demographic from the outset.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

Are French millennials conservative leaning or something? I get that they don't love Macron but this is like Millennials in the US just choosing to vote Trump out of spite?

The correct way to view this is that young people make up the majority of the round 2 abstainers who went Melenchon in round 1. Which shouldn't be surprising given political culture. When you are examining a pool smaller than the universe of voters, and one that has self-selected to exclude much of the left, you are left with a result that is only representative of a fraction of the whole.

In fact, one should look at every subsample that does not include the abstention from r1 in mind. How many people are missing, and how much does this slant the electorate? To this end, I recommend actually looking at the polls pdfs, cause the abstentions are included in these but often not discussed in the press releases.

As far as 25-34/35-49 goes, this also shouldn't be surprising. The European far right does best with the middle aged groups, and this is Le Pen's normal base.

25-34 is not "middle aged" and it's surprising that she's doing better with that group than the middle aged (35-49) and that there is such big gap between young (18-25) and young-ish (25-34) voters.

[Zinneke]

Usually in Europe your first payslip and your first mugging happen around 25.

[JimJamUK]

The European far right (and associated travellers) have consistently done best among the middle age groups. The very youngest tend to be the most socially liberal but this is balanced by lack of partisanship. Pensioners tend to wary of the far right for obvious reasons and tend to be most attached to the traditional parties/the establishment more generally, so usually end up the weakest group for the far right. Its only a few countries elsewhere like the UK that have a clear linear age gradient (and you'd be hard pressed to call UKIP a far right party anyways).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Interesting polling data from Ifop about vote choice by media (print, radio, TV) consumption habits:

Nightly news:
snip

More proof that 24h news channels are a cancer on society and rots brains, and that I should watch Arte even more. TF1's right-wing lean is now split between Macron and the far-right.

Radio:
snip

Yeah, no surprise, I only listen to Radio France.

Newspapers and magazines:
snip

No surprise, far-right rag Valeurs Actuelles had 49% support for the far-right. As for the rest, well, it's clear confirmation that Mélenchon coalesced the left very well.

Various TV shows/channels:
snip

*pretends to be shocked* as regular CNEWS viewers lean to the far-right.

Tag yourselves, I'm the Valeurs Actuelles reader for Jadot

[angus]

Did anyone catch the debate last night?  I watched the first two hours--apparently it went on for three hours--but I got hungry and had to bid adieu to the candidates.

It was interesting.  There were similarities and dissimilarities compared with the US presidential debates.  The candidates' interruptions were similar. The moderator's inability to prevent interruptions was similar. The subversions and topic changes were similar.

But the position of the desks, face to face, was more interesting. I like this arrangement. It encourages dialogue. A big difference was the age of the candidates. One seems to be my age, more or less. The other appears to be several years younger. Now it's hard to imagine such candidates in the United States. You would have to go back at least 20 years to find such young candidates.

There were small details that I didn't quite understand--fine points of policy that don't normally arise in the US, or that are different enough that I don't relate to them. But, generally, I understood the questions and the answers, and especially the difference between the philosophies between the two candidates.

Who won? I do not know. I feel like Macron is a better master of debating skills, but Le Pen managed her time well enough and rose to the general challenge of not confusing or contradicting herself beyond what is normal for a politician.  Macron definitely called her out a few times when she stated "alternative facts." We'll see.  The French analysts are generally calling it a win for Macron.  Here's an example.  Note that he says (at about 1:30) that about 36% of Mélenchon voters claim that Le Pen did better, which I find a bit surprising.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Macron continues his climb... this his best number against Le Pen since a 58%/42% from the same pollster from March 26.


https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517188639524069379