French presidential election, 2022

[Coldstream]

I feel like Ciotti is auditioning to be Le Pen’s Prime Minister rather than thinking he actually has a shot at the Presidency.

[Coldstream]

Zemmour is Algerian Jewish in origin, so it's a bit complicated (and Méluche is Moroccan born, there are loads about).

What's particularly, umm, weird is that Zemmour is also an ardent defender of Pétain and Maurice Papon and reckons they didn't merely do nothing wrong, but were actually in the right vis-à-vis how Jewish people were treated by the Vichy régime. Which would already be frightening enough in it's own right.

Zemmour peddles with the theory that Petain gave up foreign Jews to save French Jews and that was fulfilling his job description. I mean it's textbook political comm 101. Make a.controversial statement, make the media hype happen then seek to clarify, putting water into your wine. Vlaams Belang and Baudet do this.

Zemmour really is just overcompensating for a lot of things though. His height. His "tête de juif maghrébin". His foreign origins (I actually wouldn't call him pied noir) in general. The fact that had he not dropped out at one of those elite schools he'd probably be some LR politician's party trick to wheel out to say "hey look at my Supersmart assistant".

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them. Very good communicators though.

Agreed, Zemmour/Baudet is a useful analogy to Le Pen/Wilders. Zemmour/Baudet are conservatives as much as they are far right, whilst Le Pen/Wilders are singly dedicated to anti-immigration/anti-Islam and fairly indifferent to most other things (even the EU to a certain extent). Personally I expect Zemmour to go the same way as Baudet, to rise and then drop off - whilst Le Pen’s support remains steady.

I’d add that Meloni/Salvini in Italy are also quite a similar dynamic to Baudet/Wilders & Zemmour/Le Pen.

[Coldstream]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

[Coldstream]

Given Zemmour hasn’t got a party, or shown much interest in politics till recently, is he still going to be able to get the 500 nominators?

[Coldstream]

It’s a bit like the 2016/17 primary, everyone was concentrating on Juppe & Sarkozy that no one saw the hardest right candidate (Fillon) come through. Though nominating Ciotti seems like a good way to turn the party in to simply an auxiliary of Zemmour or Le Pen, and to finish 6th. Though I’d still expect Pecresse to win the primary now.

[Coldstream]

Interesting that despite his high profile announcement, the most recent polling has Zemmour in 4th behind even Pecresse. Perhaps Pecresse is getting a nomination bounce?

[Coldstream]

Interesting that despite his high profile announcement, the most recent polling has Zemmour in 4th behind even Pecresse. Perhaps Pecresse is getting a nomination bounce?

It would be hilarious, if in the end, the two candidates in the runoff are Pecresse/Macron.

Honestly that was my thought looking at the polls, if Le Pen and Zemmour split the vote the right way and Pecresse holds on to her polling it could happen.

[Coldstream]

Is it already possible to say that Macron will have one of the places in the runoff and the other place is contested by Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon?

Feels like a pretty optimistic argument from Melenchon to consider he’s got a chance of finishing in the top 2, even top 4 seems unlikely at this point.

[Coldstream]

This is really hard to make predictions about the presidential election at the moment.

* Firstly, we aren’t certain about the complete list of the running candidates. A minor candidate being on the ballot or not can matter a lot (imagine if in 2002 Taubira hadn’t run or if Pasqua had his signatures) but there is a slight possibility Zemmour (very controversial, no existing party infrastructure plus LR has no interest seeing him running) or Mélenchon (can no longer count on the support of the PC, at least for now) not making it.


* Secondly, the electorate is becoming more and more fluid (see 2017 when Hamon experienced a massive surge in the aftermath of his nomination before melting for the benefit of Mélenchon) and I have my doubts Pécresse, Le Pen and Zemmour will be all three above 15%: one will probably saw his/her support collapsing during the campaign for the benefit of the two others. There are also many undecided, especially among left-wing voters.


* Thirdly, the ongoing COVID-19 surge is interfering with the campaign with discussions about measures to contain the pandemic hijacking the whole public debate at the expense of other topics and the election campaign itself. Of course, nobody knows for how long this will last. Additionally, if his government really mess things up in its response to the COVID-19, Macron could be found himself in a more fragile position than expected.


* Next, we have no idea about what the turnout will be and a sharp increase in abstention, a bit similar to the one in the last regional elections but not at the extent reached then, can’t been discarded. There are indications that French voters are less interested in the election than five years ago and, IMO, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards the political class as a whole and towards the incumbent president in particular.

The changes promised by Macron in term of ethics fails to materialize (a pretty obscure minister has to resign few weeks ago after having been formally sentenced for lying on his assets declaration; the justice minister is currently indicted for ‘illegal taking of interest’; the interior minister remained in charge despite being accused of rape – the case has been dismissed by the justice since; a LREM deputy is currently charged for having harassed his wife and another one is still sitting in the parliament despite being sued for having attacked a PS member with a motorcycle helmet).

Tellingly, a quite sizable share of the LREM deputies are expected to renounce running for reelection due to a mix of disappointment with Macron policies, a feeling they have been totally ignored by the government and the president and a very hostile political atmosphere to which the deputies from the ‘civil society’ were unprepared to deal with (starting really with the Yellow Jackets movement and still ongoing thanks to anti-vaxxers and extremists of all shades, the constituency offices of various LREM legislators have been trashed on a regular basis; elected officials of right and left are now frequently receiving death threats, some have been physically assaulted or being confronted at their homes – the latest ones have been a pro-Macron mayor in a small commune of Normandy having his garage burnt down and pro-Zemmour messages tagged on Marine Le Pen’s house).

Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, nothing came out of the demands for a more democratic practice. This was rapidly buried in the protests under illegible and extravagant demands as the idiots and the extremists took over the declining movement and nobody in the medias nor among the candidates are now discussing that issue (same for the questions of public services in rural France and territorial inequalities). Meanwhile, the designation of random citizens to ‘advice’ the government decided by Macron to calm the protesters turned into a complete farce: the government chose to largely ignore the recommendations issued by the citizen commission on climate (basically accusing its members of having been brainwashed by the scientists consulted by said commission) and nobody has any clue about what happened to the citizen’s commission on vaccination appointed about a year ago.

On the same time, except maybe for Zemmour supporters (but Zemmour is the most rejected political figure in French electorate at large), I don't think that, outside of their more hackish supporters, voters are particularly thrilled for the batch of candidates running against Macron. Clearly Mélenchon and Le Pen have lost some their luster. Pécresse isn't particularly inspiring (too much bourgeois and too much Parisian - well Versaillaise; in some ways, she's isn't that different from Macron) and neither is Jadot.


* And that’s my very personal opinion but I’m under the impression that the mass medias (especially the television whose watcher average age is currently 56.1, up from 54.5 last year but is still the prime media for political debates and communication) have mostly renounced addressing youngest audiences. The public debate, as it currently stands on radio and television, is largely revolving about the obsessions of well-off boomer retirees – on average, French retirees are earning more than younger generations. Hence constant complaints about the alleged decline of the French civilization which can apparently been summed up by Mr. Potato, Pepé Le Pew, Gone With The Wind, French kings’ numerals having to be Roman for people having reading disability and Molière’s texts having to be completely unchanged in educational material aimed at foreigners learning French abroad*. And while there are non-stop attacks against an alleged ‘wokism’ and ‘Islamo-leftism’ in the French university, material and financial problems faced by students and teachers are barely discussed.

Plus you have had in these last months some highly publicized very indecent complaints from boomers whining about how they can no longer afford a comfortable retirement: like Luc Ferry, a TV philosopher and once the worst education minister in French history, who ‘obviously can’t live’ with a €3,000 monthly pension; or a quite famous TV presenter afraid of dying in the street with his ‘very small’ €3,500 monthly pension; or a recent TV reporting that shocked even my parents and my uncle about some retired couple pretending struggling to live with over €2,500 a month. By comparison, the minimal wage is €1,589 and I have to live with €900 a month while far from being the most to be pitied.

All of this is recipe for potential important abstention among youngest voters, something which probably would hurt Mélenchon the most and help Pécresse the most.


*Yes, these are the pseudo-debates (it can’t be called debates when it is such one-sided hysterical discussions) about totally frivolous if not non-existent problems. The worst one was about Gone With The Wind being withdrawn from Netflix for like one week becoming an unacceptable attack on liberties and democracy for ‘philosophers’ spending their time denouncing the ‘import’ of US theories in France. At the exact same time, the French government was busy attempting to curtail the right to protest under the pretext of COVID-19, something that went then largely unreported.

Is there not an argument that Zemmour pulls votes away from Le Pen boosting the odds for Pecresse to get in to round 2? This is to my knowledge the first time since Penelopegate that the Republicans have polled like they are going to get in to the runoff. Though I agree that one of Zemmour/Pecresse will crater and their support go to the other/Le Pen.

[Coldstream]

Is there somewhere tracking who is getting close to the 500 nominations?

[Coldstream]

Is there somewhere tracking who is getting close to the 500 nominations?

Everybody is at 0 so far, we are not that step yet.

Less than 3 months to go to the voting, seems like they leave this quite late.

[Coldstream]

For those more knowledgeable: What’s Taubira’s chance of not getting enough nominations? Doesn’t the lack of a party machine really hamper her? And unlike with Zemmour there’s not really an argument to endorse her to weaken a rival.

[Coldstream]

Could a Hidalgo disaster spell annhilation for PS in the National Assembly elections or would they likely hold up a bit better there?

I imagine the legislature elections are one reason some of the left candidates are staying in past their due dates: to keep their partys' hopes alive in the National Assembly.

I feel like it probably won’t make much difference, they don’t have much left to lose - and the PCF won seats in 2017 despite not having a Presidential candidate at all.

[Coldstream]

Unless she has a really good plan to turn things around very quickly, then I really don't see the point in Hidalgo staying in the race. Doing so otherwise will - unless we're seeing a serious case of polling failure - only further damage her image and that of the remnants of her party. She was always a curious choice of candidate given the general field: given that Macron is the incumbent and that there was always going to be a Green candidate, what exactly is the purpose of her candidacy? Other sorts of PS politician could maybe justify themselves under these circumstances, but not her sort. There's no room.

Hidalgo should have waited for 2027, with open seat, Mélenchon rejected after three defeats and with Olympics visibility.

Reading this makes me angry at PS strategists. The PS could have nominated a no-name, then withdrawn to back the EELV (and claimed they were being responsible after 2017), concentrated on the assembly elections then have an untainted and elevated Hidalgo ready to go. It was so obviously a better idea than keeping going now.

[Coldstream]

PS has strategists?

Have you ever known a centre left party that didn’t have hundreds of over-paid, ignorant, strategists?

[Coldstream]

Also, I'm sure that PS has an ego and would think it is humiliating seeing itself not run in a Presidential election.

Maybe, but it’s much less humiliating than coming 8th with ~1% of the vote alongside people like Arthaud.

[Coldstream]

I think most people would regard Arthaud’s party as a cult, that in mind, can anyone explain why they’ve got more nominees than established party’s like Melenchon, Jadot or Le Pen?

[Coldstream]

Not related to the election, but since there’s no France mega thread - Fillon has resigned from his Russian corporate board positions for fear of being caught up in sanctions.

He only worked there for 3 months, so he probably made less money than his wife did as his fake assistant.

[Coldstream]

Looking at the sponsorships, doesn’t look like Asselineau or Poutou are that close despite getting enough in 2017.

[Coldstream]

I’m pretty sure Macron said he voted for Chevenement in 2002, so I guess it’s not that shocking.

[Coldstream]

Zemmour, Le Pen & Dupont-Aignan all made it on to the ballot today.

For the rest, with three days to go:

Poutou needs 158
Asselineau needs 237
Taubira needs 319

[Coldstream]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

[Coldstream]

More and more, people are recognizing that Emmanuel Macron is, mostly by default, the best president of the Fifth Republic.

He really isn't (and if you asked French people about it in a poll they'd clearly tell you that), but what he is is better than any of the candidates who have any shot of qualifying for the runoff.

Genuine question. Who the French would say was the best President? I doubt Hollande, Sarko or Chirac would feature there.

According to this link, De Gaulle and Chirac are tied: https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/1055822/meilleur-president-selon-francais/

30% De Gaulle
30% Chirac
17% Mitterrand
  7% Macron
  7% Sarkozy
  5% Pompidou
  3% Giscard d'Estaing
  1% Holland

Another one, without De Gaulle in it, has Miterrand with 31% and Chirac with 26%: https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/societe/sondage-mitterrand-est-le-meilleur-president-de-ces-quarante-dernieres-annees-hollande-le-plus-1538592182

Overall, I think we can say that De Gaulle, Miterrand and Chirac are the most popular.

Who are the 1% of people who chose Hollande? I don’t hate the guy, but…best ever? Really?

[Coldstream]

What is considered to be the main "legacy' of Francois Mitterrand? I know he was President for 14 years so that makes him a symbol of an era - but what did he actually accomplish. I vaguely remember him bringing in a bunch radical reforms in his first year, then becoming extremely unpopular and backtracking on almost everything and then him being extremely UNpopular almost all the time he was President but having an uncanny ability to outfox his opponents when it came to managing co-habitation and getting re-elected...but it seems to me that his only real legacy was that he occupied the post of President - not that he actually did much with the job. 

He blew up the Rainbow Warrior.

[Coldstream]

As we were discussing 2 months ago, now it's become clear that only 3 candidates will have a large number of votes: Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others will have single digit. In the final days, some candidates atract useful votes.

Melenchon is still in quite a distant third. And I don’t think you can rule out Pecresse getting ahead of him by the end if Zemmour continues to slide.