French presidential election, 2022

[TheTide]

Le Pen might suffer from a fair few voters getting cold feet syndrome. There also wasn't much evidence of a shy Le Pen factor in the first round.

[kwabbit]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Yeah, this would be the equivalent of asking "Why did Bush do so well in Austin?" lmao.

Bush might have won Austin in 2000. He won Travis County by 5 pts and Austin is about 75% of the county by population.

[adma]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Alright but there seems to be an urban area southwest of it she did well in.

In which case, you'd be speaking in more general Nord-Pas-de-Calais terms--most particularly, the old coal-mining vicinity of the Artois--than in the immediate terms of Lille.  And among other things, Pas-de-Calais (which isn't the Lille department, but that immediately to the S) happens to be Le Pen's political home base, and one of 2 departments which she won in the 2nd round in '17.

[Vosem]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Yeah, this would be the equivalent of asking "Why did Bush do so well in Austin?" lmao.

...in the 2000 election he did, as a result of how strong Nader's spoiler effect was in that particular city and a really strong home-state boost. (Not only did he carry Travis County 47-42, but he carried Doggett's seat, which was the more Democratic parts of the county, 46-43).

[Mike88]

Ipsos poll:

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1514976722202112000?cxt=HHwWgMC9navTo4...

[Horus]

This election is giving me UK 2017. Le Pen will make it close but it ain't happenin'.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ipsos poll:

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1514976722202112000?cxt=HHwWgMC9navTo4...

That's Macron's best run-off poll number (against Le Pen) since a OpinionWay-Kéa poll from 26–29 March.

[Tintrlvr]

AtlasIntel also has a new poll out showing Macron up 52-48. That may be closer than other pollsters, but they are also the only pollster who has ever shown Le Pen ahead (last week they had 49.5-50.5), so this is still a gain for Macron.

Not to jinx it, but this is roughly how I expected things to play out: Faced with the real possibility of Le Pen winning, French voters who were saying for a long time that they would sit out the second round are coming off the fence for Macron, albeit not in the droves they did last time around.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Yeah, this would be the equivalent of asking "Why did Bush do so well in Austin?" lmao.

Bush might have won Austin in 2000. He won Travis County by 5 pts and Austin is about 75% of the county by population.

Huh, wow. That really was a different world back then.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1514924496960040970?s=20&t=wT2ABQ0jAC7Dh-E...
YouGov poll. If I didn't know better, I would saw there might be overall herding towards a 54-46 going on right now. Odaxa has 53-47, OpinionWay-Kéa 54-46, and Ifop-Fiducial 53.5/46.5. Anyway, they have a nice voter intention chart:



Macron receives slightly more Melenchon voters than Le Pen, who receives slightly more than abstention. Macron gets 53% of Pécresse voters to Le Pen's 14%, 66% of Jadot's voters to 3% for Le Pen, as well as further gains from the minor candidates. The one group which is not considering abstaining though is Zemmour voters, going 81/11 for Le Pen.

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Huh, wow. That really was a different world back then.

Yes and also no: it was genuinely shocking at the time.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1514924496960040970?s=20&t=wT2ABQ0jAC7Dh-E...
YouGov poll. If I didn't know better, I would saw there might be overall herding towards a 54-46 going on right now. Odaxa has 53-47, OpinionWay-Kéa 54-46, and Ifop-Fiducial 53.5/46.5. Anyway, they have a nice voter intention chart:

Macron receives slightly more Melenchon voters than Le Pen, who receives slightly more than abstention. Macron gets 53% of Pécresse voters to Le Pen's 14%, 66% of Jadot's voters to 3% for Le Pen, as well as further gains from the minor candidates. The one group which is not considering abstaining though is Zemmour voters, going 81/11 for Le Pen.

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

Probably those Jews who voted Zemmour in R1 for parochial reasons, and some of the wealthy urbanites who went from Fillion->Zemmour based on wealthy conservatism and are therefore closer to Macron than Le Pen. Their numbers however are not large, and I think the lack of projected overall abstentions is further confirmation of the affluence of his coalition.

[Zinneke]

The protests "against the results of the 1rst round" by the university students is gathering a lot of media momentum. It's quite clear that rather than dust ourselves down and analyse where we went wrong, the grandstanding and the Macron = Le Pen rhetoric has started from, by their own paramaters, white privileged students who are exercising their privilege by not voting against the far right. Sad state of affairs, but predictable given who their lider maximo is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The protests "against the results of the 1rst round" by the university students is gathering a lot of media momentum. It's quite clear that rather than dust ourselves down and analyse where we went wrong, the grandstanding and the Macron = Le Pen rhetoric has started from, by their own paramaters, white privileged students who are exercising their privilege by not voting against the far right. Sad state of affairs, but predictable given who their lider maximo is.

I always found protesting against legitimate election results silly, the main point of a protest is to draw attention to a cause you feel isn't getting the attention it deserves. Protesting against an election result unless directed against either changing the electoral system or abolishing dmeocracy is meaningless.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Zinneke]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Reminds me of Henri de Lesquen who called her a leftist that danced to "Negro music".

[All Along The Watchtower]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

[MaxQue]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

Still was the case this year, but Macron mumbers are a bit misleading, as his wife is the one owning their house.

Pécresse was, by far, the wealthiest candidate.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

Still was the case this year, but Macron mumbers are a bit misleading, as his wife is the one owning their house.

Pécresse was, by far, the wealthiest candidate.

Ah yes, I had almost forgotten Macron’s cougar wife lol.

[Lord Halifax]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

how did Mélenchon became rich? book deals?

[MaxQue]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

how did Mélenchon became rich? book deals?

Mainly being a politician since the 80's and buying a cheap apartment in Paris in that era (and selling it in the last decade).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Macron --> Le Pen and Le Pen --> Macron voters are just fascinating to me. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mainly being a politician since the 80's and buying a cheap apartment in Paris in that era (and selling it in the last decade).

And while I'm certainly not alleging any impropriety here, Mitterrand allies in particular tended to have a good 1980s/early 90s from a financial perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A request: I'm going to do some maps of the results at arrondissement and municipal level for the City of Paris and the Petite Couronne and happen to have a strongly principled objection to decision of authorities to include prisoner ballots in with the results from the 1st arrondissement - psephological vandalism in my view. Does anyone have the results for that arrondissement without the numbers from the prisoner polling district?