French presidential election, 2022

[Hash]

Also, I forgot the obvious in my post above: this poll is an outlier: there has not been one other poll which shows Panzergirl leading in the runoff. All other polls basically have her at 46-48% now. On top of that, their Mélenchon/Macron runoff numbers are also an unusually favourable outlier for Mélenchon, who gets 46% compared to roughly 40-42% in all other polls.

[Umengus]

the rise of le pen is fueled big by inflation.

The brazilian poll is the first to show le pen win (vs Macron) but french pollsters are not far behind: harris has  Le pen at 48,5 %, Ipsos (the least fav to lepen) at 47 %, ifop at 47,5 M-%,...

If sunday, Le pen (and the "right bloc": zemmour, pecresse,...) does better than predicted, Le pen will have a good shot to win.

[Sir John Johns]

Largely off thread but if this can help, the record of ‘Atlas Intel’ in Ecuador isn’t particularly brilliant and give strong indications on the seriousness of that company.

Two weeks before the first round it gave the following results: Arauz 36.5%; Lasso 26.7%; Pérez 10.8%; Hervas 4.5%; null/blank/abstain. The actual results were; Arauz 28.6%; Lasso 17.2%; Pérez 16.9%; Hervas 13.7%; null/blank 12.6%

Ecuador is obviously a difficult country to poll and even local established poll companies have go more than often epically wrong. But there are really bizarre stuff with ‘Atlas Intel’ methodology.

Beginning with the respondent being (apparently but this is unclear) asked which party he will vote and which candidate he will vote in the same election, the presidential election. This one is already weird but stranger is the inclusion in the list of parties respondents would vote for of:

- Justicia Social (which didn’t fielded a presidential candidate but still polled 3.7% of total respondents!)

- Libertad es Pueblo, a party that has been deregistered four months (!) before the release of the poll



Polling candidates not on the ballot once the final list of candidates had been officialized is definitely a non-conformist approach for a polling firm. This can't even be a confusion with the legislative elections as I firstly thought because Movimiento Amigo, a party that didn’t run a single list in the parliamentary elections, is still included among the polled options.



There is also that insane gender gap among Arauz who is receiving 41% of men’s vote against 32% of women’s vote when the result was a more reasonable 30.1% / 27.0%. Apparently ‘Atlas Intel’ is unaware that male and women voters are voting in separate polling stations enabling the release of precise and accurate results by gender otherwise it would have been a bit more careful in what it was doing. Then ‘Atlas Intel’ is also apparently unaware that people aged 16-17 can vote in Ecuador otherwise it would have included in its polls a sample of that population which accounts for 5% of voters. How can you hope producing correct polls if you ignore such a sizable share of the electorate?

But the most fascinating part is how ‘Atlas Intel’ managed to obtain the same exact fcking result when polling an Arauz/Lasso runoff in late January and ten days before the runoff, in April:





The only change is the share of blank/null/non-voter/don’t know increasing from 19.7% to 19.8%, surely the result of the main indigenous organization, the unions and the parties of Pérez and Hervas having all called voters to cast a null vote. Obviously, their prediction turned wrong as the result was 43.0% for Lasso, 39.1% for Arauz and 17.9% for null/blank.



Also kudos for having totally fcked up your Pichincha subsample: Lasso received in that urban province 53.7%, Arauz 29.4% and blank/null 16.9% while ‘Atlas Intel’ predicted respectively 40%, 37% and 23%. A 3ppt lead turning actually into a 24.3ppt lead in the province home to Quito, one of the most easy ones to polled...

Note, that this doesn’t mean Le Pen can’t win in the runoff but that if that happened, then the Brazilian fake poll company would have correctly guessed (this is the appropriate term) it and not predicted it.

[windjammer]

I'm going to vote for Pecresse.

[Canis]

I'm going to vote for Pecresse.

Why?

[Umengus]

the rise of le pen is fueled big by inflation.

The brazilian poll is the first to show le pen win (vs Macron) but french pollsters are not far behind: harris has  Le pen at 48,5 %, Ipsos (the least fav to lepen) at 47 %, ifop at 47,5 M-%,...

If sunday, Le pen (and the "right bloc": zemmour, pecresse,...) does better than predicted, Le pen will have a good shot to win.

Odoxa:

Sondage Odoxa pour
@lobs
 :
- Macron : 28%
- Le Pen : 24%
- Mélenchon : 16%
- Zemmour : 8%
- Pécresse : 7%
- Jadot : 5%
- Lassalle : 3%
- Roussel : 3%
- Dupont-Aignan : 2%
- Hidalgo : 2%
- Arthaud : 0.5%
- Poutou : 0.5%

Second tour :
- Macron : 55%
- Le Pen : 45%

[adma]

Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

Hey, I might use the word "globalist", too.  But in a "meta" way, i.e. sort of like the "so-labelled" globalists, or the joke's on those unironically/disdainfully deploying the label...

[Senator Incitatus]

1. Runoff polling is in general of questionable value until the first round is complete and this particular poll was conducted by a Brazilian firm with no track record in France. Polling for this election is extremely frequent (arguably too frequent!) and nearly all recent polls show Macron with a hypothetical second round lead of between six and four points. More have shown larger leads (ten points, eight points etc) than have shown a deficit.

This is true, but why expect Le Pen will decline after the first round? I would think a surprising strong showing (for those who don't religiously follow polling) and reconciliation with Zemmour and (some) Pécresse supporters will improve her standing.

[MaxQue]

1. Runoff polling is in general of questionable value until the first round is complete and this particular poll was conducted by a Brazilian firm with no track record in France. Polling for this election is extremely frequent (arguably too frequent!) and nearly all recent polls show Macron with a hypothetical second round lead of between six and four points. More have shown larger leads (ten points, eight points etc) than have shown a deficit.

This is true, but why expect Le Pen will decline after the first round? I would think a surprising strong showing (for those who don't religiously follow polling) and reconciliation with Zemmour and (some) Pécresse supporters will improve her standing.

Because that what happened in most elections. FN/RN polling worse in runoffs polls after 1st turn and then performing worse than polls on election day.

[BigSerg]

You can ban me all you want. You're just showing how intolerant you all are.

This is eerily similar to the trajectory of the Brexit vote, except Macron is doing about 5 points better on average. Brexit won by 3.8%. Two and half weeks, we'll see if it gets any closer or if Macron can get back into more comfortable territory. I would still say Macron is the favorite, but first-round results will tell us a lot.





Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

TBH those who criticize you pretend to be intellectuals but in the subthreads of other elections such as Spain or any election in Latin America, British and French avatars demonstrate their absolute ignorance and triviality. Besides here we have Zeneke, so "there are rules of behavior" is highly debatable xd.

[Death of a Salesman]

Well, some of this is the understandable reaction of French liberals who are discontented with the state of their country, dislike their countrymen, and anonymously vent online on a niche forum for anglophone political obsessives. To have conservative Americans look at France in envy will feel like an unforgivable intrusion into a heretofore private club, regardless of the merits of the interlopers' arguments.

[Death of a Salesman]

It really is striking, from an American perspective, how closely French politics resembles the America of the mid-90s.

An incumbent who campaigned as a bold and brave challenger to the established order, as a more moderate but still liberal rising star from the main center-left party, faces re-election. His term has been dominated by conservative rebellions. His party has suffered in the elections held during his tenure. Yet he hangs on, striking a more conservative note than he has previously, but still the leading exemplar of the liberal tendency in national politics.

An old party stalwart of the right, embarking on a probably doomed final chapter. For a time, more liberal and more radical forces within the right seemed poised to undercut them, but as the election nears it becomes apparent that they have prevailed and shall face the incumbent. Public anxieties against immigration put a wind at their back, but the road is long and the incumbent may yet prevail. 

A radical right-wing journalist with a career of provocation. Demagouging against immigration, feminism, and the welfare state, they strike gold within much of the right, inspiring a populist rebellion that nearly threatens to let them surmount the old party stalwart. Then the pitchforks are dropped, as their candidacy burns out before the election has come.

There are more analogies I could sketch, some of them plausible and some less so. Yet the essential similarity of the character of public discourse, of a broadly conservative electorate anxious about the red-hot pace of immigration, of the collapse of old-school left-wing politics, of a rising and radical right-wing, seems essentially familiar.

And yet it meant nothing. Bill Clinton won in 1996. The public mood cooled, the anger dissipated and anxieties about immigration were dropped by the broad center. The rightward turn of the 90s was chilling for American liberals and thrilling for American conservatives, but the liberals have had the last laugh. Will the same happen in France?

[Red Velvet]

That Brazilian pollster is okay for Brazil. Not idea about the tradition in other countries though.

[buritobr]

Atlas has already committed a big mistake in Chile. It showed a tie between Boric and Kast in the eve of the 2nd round. Boric had a comfortable margin.

I even didn't know that Altas was Brazilian. Atlas used to conduct some polls for Brazil, but here we are not talking about Atlas anymore.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It really is striking, from an American perspective, how closely French politics resembles the America of the mid-90s.

An incumbent who campaigned as a bold and brave challenger to the established order, as a more moderate but still liberal rising star from the main center-left party, faces re-election. His term has been dominated by conservative rebellions. His party has suffered in the elections held during his tenure. Yet he hangs on, striking a more conservative note than he has previously, but still the leading exemplar of the liberal tendency in national politics.

An old party stalwart of the right, embarking on a probably doomed final chapter. For a time, more liberal and more radical forces within the right seemed poised to undercut them, but as the election nears it becomes apparent that they have prevailed and shall face the incumbent. Public anxieties against immigration put a wind at their back, but the road is long and the incumbent may yet prevail. 

A radical right-wing journalist with a career of provocation. Demagouging against immigration, feminism, and the welfare state, they strike gold within much of the right, inspiring a populist rebellion that nearly threatens to let them surmount the old party stalwart. Then the pitchforks are dropped, as their candidacy burns out before the election has come.

There are more analogies I could sketch, some of them plausible and some less so. Yet the essential similarity of the character of public discourse, of a broadly conservative electorate anxious about the red-hot pace of immigration, of the collapse of old-school left-wing politics, of a rising and radical right-wing, seems essentially familiar.

And yet it meant nothing. Bill Clinton won in 1996. The public mood cooled, the anger dissipated and anxieties about immigration were dropped by the broad center. The rightward turn of the 90s was chilling for American liberals and thrilling for American conservatives, but the liberals have had the last laugh. Will the same happen in France?

French Trump in 2042 confirmed?

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/usulmuabddib/status/1511713972126429188

[Coldstream]

It’d be interesting to see what a Le Pen cabinet might look like, there’s not exactly a plethora of talent in RN so she’d probably have to reach out to Zemmour & LR types, but would she even want them if they don’t back her in R2?

[parochial boy]

Just randomly a few comments about the polling:

Firstly, people seem to be operating under the assumption that the pollsters are kind of passive bystanders, and don't update and change their methodologies based on previous experiences. So last time they were almost spot on on the first round and got the second round wrong based on the already much discussed phenomenon of voters claiming they will abstain and then voting against Le Pen in the end anyway. You know, the pollsters don't have an interest in getting it wrong again, as it's not really great for their sales - so you can imagine they will have taken this into account.

Point being, they might be wrong this time, we can't really say yet; but assuming that a) they are wrong and b) if they are, it will be in the way you want them to be possibly isn't the greatest operating assumption.

Secondly, the Mélenchon surge hasn't actually been down to would be abstentionists, but rather tactical votes coming from supporters of the other left wing candidates. Which makes when you look at it, as the left has been poilling combined in the high-20s for, well, years. Although that in turn tends to indicate another two things. Firstly, that Mélenchon's progress has a ceiling that is somewhere below the entire left vote, and that hardly bodes well for him. Secondly, the loud cultist core of Mélenchon or bust types is a (pretty small) minority of his overall electorate. Most people moving towards him are not doing so out of enthusiasm. Which agrees with the other polling factor, that Mélenchon's (and Jadot's) supporters are more likely to declare their vote as one "by default" rather than "by agreement" than the supporters of the candidates across the rest of the spectrum.

Linked to that - the overall balance of forces between of left - centre-right - far right (as in the combined left candidates - Macron - Le Pen and Zemmour) are actually fairly equal overall; about 30% for all three; and that is actually an overall balance that has barely changed since 2017. Certainly the left polling in the high 20s is dreadful by both historical and international standards, but it's a pretty big call to describe the left as "marginal" in this case. All the more so when it is clearly being handicapped by a standard bearer who is clearly not deeply flawed; by the complete uselessness of the old government parties; and the disunity within its ranks.

[Agafin]

It’d be interesting to see what a Le Pen cabinet might look like, there’s not exactly a plethora of talent in RN so she’d probably have to reach out to Zemmour & LR types, but would she even want them if they don’t back her in R2?

https://www.ft.com/content/1d2bb0f0-a219-42e7-9ba9-634bdd11c396

Marine Le Pen open to appointing leftists if she wins French presidency

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen has said she is open to appointing leftwingers in her government if she is elected French president later this month.

Le Pen, who has already held out the prospect of a “government of national unity”, said on Thursday that while she would “probably not” work with hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she could work with leftists such as those who follow Jean-Pierre Chevènement, a former interior minister under Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin.

Whether you believe it, is up to you.

[Agafin]

In other news, Taubira decides to back Mélenchon. This is a little surprising to me, she seems much more fiscally liberal (in the classical sense) than him. Hidalgo can't catch a break.

[SunSt0rm]

I never expect it, but I may have to go the embassy the 24th to stop this madness

[rc18]

Another close poll from Yougov,

https://twitter.com/idvck/status/1512372475056775170?s=20&t=s2g0GMP0mR5Qb-Vx...

[Sub Jero]

Anne Hidalgo will shock everyone by making the runoff and winning it.

[Coldstream]

It’d be interesting to see what a Le Pen cabinet might look like, there’s not exactly a plethora of talent in RN so she’d probably have to reach out to Zemmour & LR types, but would she even want them if they don’t back her in R2?

https://www.ft.com/content/1d2bb0f0-a219-42e7-9ba9-634bdd11c396

Marine Le Pen open to appointing leftists if she wins French presidency

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen has said she is open to appointing leftwingers in her government if she is elected French president later this month.

Le Pen, who has already held out the prospect of a “government of national unity”, said on Thursday that while she would “probably not” work with hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she could work with leftists such as those who follow Jean-Pierre Chevènement, a former interior minister under Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin.

Whether you believe it, is up to you.

I did see that, Chevenement himself is past 80 though and it’s not like there’s a huge number of adherents he has left.

[DL]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...