GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Suburbia]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

They might triage the state. I want to see MS turn blue sooner. I want to see Roger Wicker go down in 2024. Alabama did it with Jones, South Carolina almost did it with Harrison.

[Brittain33]

MS’s governing population is never going to let the state turn blue through gradual demographic change. It’s not going to happen.

[Suburbia]

MS’s governing population is never going to let the state turn blue through gradual demographic change. It’s not going to happen.

Sad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

They might triage the state. I want to see MS turn blue sooner. I want to see Roger Wicker go down in 2024. Alabama did it with Jones, South Carolina almost did it with Harrison.

MS's black population isn't growing in the way Atlanta's is, and the lack of any big metros means there aren't really any liberal whites in the way there is in pockets of Atlanta.

In Georgia, you also have growing Hispanic and Asian populations which MS lacks.

[Horus]

seriously though..why haven't there been any polls so far for this race except that AARP poll ?

Holidays and senate control not being on the line. Plenty will come this week.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1597028177255501824

[Adam Griffin]

So far in the 2022 runoff election, 181,643 people have voted. 91,350 voted yesterday (Sunday) - by far the biggest Sunday turnout in Georgia history (just for reference, across the two 2022 GE Sundays, there was only a combined total of 47,058 votes). Of course, there is only one week of guaranteed M-F voting this time as opposed to 3, so this is likely pushing more voters to take advantage of weekend voting where available.

Black and under-30 shares of the total electorate held steady compared to yesterday's cumulative total, while white share dropped around a percentage point & 65+ share dropped by more than 4 points. Female share increased by more than a half-point.

27% of the under-30 vote thus far (6,367/23,758) did not vote in the November 2022 General Election.

46.3% Black
37.8% White
11.2% Other
2.8% Asian
1.9% Latino

57.1% Female
42.4% Male

13.1% 18-29
7.4%   30-39
12.2% 40-49
36.2% 50-64
30.8% 65+

5.9% of 2022 runoff early voters did not vote in the 2022 general election

[Adam Griffin]

Another way to look at the above observations: in the 2022 GE, there were two guaranteed statewide Saturdays of early voting, as well as about as many voters having access to 1 or 2 Sundays of EV on top of that. Those four days combined in the election had 235,533 votes (mail + in-person) cast/received across those 4 days.

For the runoff, we've had around 160,000 votes cast specifically on 1 Saturday and 1 Sunday (this excludes ABMs that arrived prior, as well as a handful of counties that offered EV on Wed & Fri) where such was only available to roughly 53% of the state's voters. It's also possible based on yesterday's reporting that there are another 5-10k ballots yet to be reported by SoS that were in fact cast/received yesterday to add to this total.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1597233874140270594

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1597195455451959296

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone else surprised by the utter lack of media interest in this race? I know that control of the Senate isn't in question anymore but I would think that any race involving Herschel Walker would attract more attention...

I'm not. They lost their juicy "SENATE CONTROL!!!!" narrative so at that point they just don't care anymore.

[wbrocks67]

seriously though..why haven't there been any polls so far for this race except that AARP poll ?

Most pollsters are probably scared of screwing up again.

The only ones worth taking a look at in GA would probably be Emerson, Monmouth, and especially Marist. Though Emerson tbh is shaky. Given their results elsewhere, they might've just gotten lucky in GA.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1597238626349457415

[Atlas Force]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

Triage the state?  Seriously?  They only lost the Senate seats in 2020/21 due to lackluster incumbents and Trump's election lies driving down turnout in the runoffs.  If Warnock wins this year, it will be because the GOP ran a truly terrible candidate.  Even if that happens and the Democrats still control both Senate seats, the GOP will still hold every row office, solid majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and 9 of the 14 House seats. 

True but the latter is due to gerrymandering.

And incumbency probably helped them a lot with holding the row offices this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1597238626349457415

In today's AJC:

State investigators are being urged to probe whether Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker violated the law by receiving a tax break on his Texas home meant for primary residents of that state even as he runs for federal office in Georgia.

The complaint filed Sunday by Ann Gregory Roberts asked the Attorney General’s office and Georgia Bureau of Investigation to “promptly investigate this apparent violation of Georgia law” ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff against U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/georgia-authorities-urged-to-probe-herschel-walkers-texas-tax-break/JKZMAB3VGNFKRLH7CHC5M4TAPQ/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1597195455451959296

Ah the Oz strategy of completely disappearing right before the election sure that can’t backfire at all

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597254211783180288

[Torrain]

LOL
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1597238626349457415

Peak chaos outcome:

• Walker wins by the narrowest of margins
• He’s found guilty of breaking GA law, and is forced from office.
• A special election is called.
• Warnock wins

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597254211783180288

Why is he celebrating high turnout when his office wanted to block early voting over the weekend? Fraud.

[Hope For A New Era]

Sterling confuses me.


inb4 2026 is Raffensperger elected governor, Sterling elected SoS, Dems win the other offices. lol

[Virginiá]

Why is he celebrating high turnout when his office wanted to block early voting over the weekend? Fraud.

Honestly, the fact that people like Raffensperger were/are celebrated by Democrats is a testament to how low the bar has become for Republicans. He merely refused to aid Trump in stealing an election by "finding votes", which in an ideal world would be the bare minimum for a public servant. Other than that, Raffensperger has been a supporter of other perennial Republican efforts to make voting difficult or inconvenient for Democrats. And Brian Kemp of all people post-2020 seems to have gotten a pass on an otherwise atrocious history on voting rights. His tenure as SoS was tainted by everything from tossing tens of thousands off the voter rolls, to investigating voter registration groups to disrupt their efforts during elections, to literally arresting Democrats who dared to win local elections, a brazen abuse of power that harkens back to the days of Jim Crow. Raffensperger might not be as bad as Kemp, but he is no friend to supporters of fair elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1597250325047824385

[wbrocks67]

Why is he celebrating high turnout when his office wanted to block early voting over the weekend? Fraud.

Honestly, the fact that people like Raffensperger were/are celebrated by Democrats is a testament to how low the bar has become for Republicans. He merely refused to aid Trump in stealing an election by "finding votes", which in an ideal world would be the bare minimum for a public servant. Other than that, Raffensperger has been a supporter of other perennial Republican efforts to make voting difficult or inconvenient for Democrats. And Brian Kemp of all people post-2020 seems to have gotten a pass on an otherwise atrocious history on voting rights. His tenure as SoS was tainted by everything from tossing tens of thousands off the voter rolls, to investigating voter registration groups to disrupt their efforts during elections, to literally arresting Democrats who dared to win local elections, a brazen abuse of power that harkens back to the days of Jim Crow. Raffensperger might not be as bad as Kemp, but he is no friend to supporters of fair elections.

Yep. The danger with Trump now is essentially any Republican who "fights" with him is essentially given a pass by "moderates" in the end, even if that Republican in question is still incredibly conservative.

[prag_prog]

We might end up at around 250K today..Black % of today's voters should give much better idea about the makeup of electorate than last 2 days data.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597291917091700736

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1597264261252009984