Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[EastwoodS]

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.

[EastwoodS]

Unless Matt Bevin is the GOP nominee again, Beshear is screwed in 2023.

I don’t necessarily agree with that. He could absolutely be re-elected, the only reason he isn’t is if Democrats are just complacent and don’t show up, which is likely but not a given.

[EastwoodS]

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.

TBF Bevin did not really have any earth-shattering scandals, and was unpopular only because of his policies, and had the full and complete support of Fmr. President Trump.

The biggest thing they hated, by far, more than anything was his contempt for public school teachers and the unions.

[EastwoodS]

Might have a good approval rating, probably still going to lose re-election

[EastwoodS]

I find it very hard to see Democrats getting hyper inflated numbers out of the urban counties, with extreme turnout in Louisville and Lexington and with Republicans matching Bevins awful rural numbers- to some nobody guy like Mike Harmon.  2019 was the result of a unpopular and extremely controversial governor mixed in with the naturally bad environment for the GOP. and with all of this Beshear only won by thousands of votes. It is clear to see that the ceiling is a lot higher for the Republicans and a lot lower for Dems.  

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.
Eventually, I will say, polarization will catch up to KY sooner or later, but I think this trend will play out for a couple more cycles ..maybe.

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

The similarities are so eerie.

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

The similarities are so eerie.

Yah they are and down to the fact that Beshear like Biden by restoring some democratic strength in the WWC part Bevin/Trump flipped(Eastern KY for Beshear and Rust Belt for Biden) even though it wasn’t as good as prior democrats.

And also Beshear doing historically well in the suburbs of Louisville, Lexington and northern KY to get elected. Very similar to Biden and his suburban strategy as well, states like Ga and AZ come to mind in that regard.

[EastwoodS]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

I don’t think he’ll get 70% in Louisville or Lex Bc 2019 was based on strong Anti Bevin turnout that Cameron doesn’t carry. But Beshear will probably do better in Republican counties, Lex suburbs and the Eastern parts of the state, lol

[EastwoodS]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

[EastwoodS]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait, I thought Yik Yak was dead a couple years ago?

nah, it's huge and alive and well at my school still

[EastwoodS]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait, I thought Yik Yak was dead a couple years ago?

nah, it's huge and alive and well at my school still

Like literally dead, shut down by the developer.

nope.

[EastwoodS]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait I'm trying to figure out what "deep red, suburban county of Lexington" there even is that also has a college? Closest thing I can think of is EKU? (Beshear won Madison County last time btw.) Only alternative is Centre in Danville/Boyle County (Boyle voted slightly for Bevin last time, but I expect it to flip to Beshear based on the 2020 -- when it voted left of the state -- and 2022 -- when it voted against the abortion ban -- results there). But calling either Richmond or Danville a "suburb" of Lexington is a stretch; the Lexington metro proper is Clark, Jessamine, Bourbon, Woodford, and Scott, in addition to of course Fayette.

Also I too am amazed YikYak is still a thing. I was out of school by the time it became big but my brother wasn't. I heard they basically destroyed themselves by ruining the anonymity; is it now fully anonymous again?

yeah, I go to EKU and I've always felt it was a suburb cause you are only 25 minutes from Lexington and I drive home to Louisville all the time so it feels like a quick drive that this point.

[EastwoodS]

Cameron is Bob Dole style lame. I've never been so enthusiastic to vote Democratic in my life.

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

I don't even know who's running for any of the other offices.

yeah, this tells you basically all you need to know. the governor's race is the only one on people's minds (and on tv). even in a hypothetical "andy wave" i don't think it would be enough to lift up the other dems, despite col. pam stevenson for instance being based as hell and way better than her opponent (whose only qualification, like most of the gop ticket, is being mitch mcconnell's right-hand-man). i've been textbanking some for col. pam's campaign and even though our list is composed entirely of self-declared beshear supporters (either in 2019 or 2023) we've been getting a lot of "i will never vote for a democrat" responses lol

This lol. Down ballot, KY definitely reverts back to the mean.
I think a lot of KY voters who tend to be very conservative don't feel threatened by Andy Beshear,  even though he is a very mainstream Dem, possibly bc of the GOP super majorities in both chambers and on the KY supreme court. I personally think Andy has been doing a great job fixing our states infrastructure, I definitely see a huge difference all over the state as I commute to college from Louisville and use 64 and 75 multiple times a week, and I have never seen such a massive rebuild of our roads in such a short time.

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

To be fair, Gov. Andrew Beshear could be the last Democrat who can win statewide, not unlike his Louisiana counterpart John Bel Edwards.  Once he is term-limited out of office (assuming he wins re-election, which seems likely by this point) in 2027, Republicans will finally take the Governor's mansion, and this time keep it for the foreseeable future.

Possibly, I'd say KY Democrats have a few good ones left on the bench that can make it competitive in the future, but the Beshears (KY royalty at this point) are a powerhouse in Kentucky that I can not see state Democrats replicating afterwards.

[EastwoodS]

Saw my first Cameron sign on Dorsey lane in Louisville. Also saw like 20 Beshear signs on Baxter and Bardstown road. Also saw a Andy sign in Russel country ky lolo

[EastwoodS]

i saw one (1) cameron sign on southern parkway (a deep blue stronghold in louisville) a few weeks ago so therefore beshear is DONE.

yard signs can be fairly telling, though its mostly Beshear who seems to be garnering strong support.

[EastwoodS]

i saw one (1) cameron sign on southern parkway (a deep blue stronghold in louisville) a few weeks ago so therefore beshear is DONE.

yard signs can be fairly telling, though its mostly Beshear who seems to be garnering strong support.

No they don’t. Signs don’t vote.

Yes they do. You’re not changing my mind.

[EastwoodS]

i saw one (1) cameron sign on southern parkway (a deep blue stronghold in louisville) a few weeks ago so therefore beshear is DONE.

yard signs can be fairly telling, though its mostly Beshear who seems to be garnering strong support.

No they don’t. Signs don’t vote.

Yes they do. You’re not changing my mind.

That's why Beto won my county in 2018 and defeated Ted Cruz!

I don’t know why you all have to gang up on me. I’m trying to be friendly and I get met with Reddit tier style d-bags

[EastwoodS]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

[EastwoodS]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62b0d289831aea152bd.....

[EastwoodS]

Michael Adams is like unofficially endorsing Beshar in this ad.

https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1717591939824877583?s=46

I've been paying close attention to him; he is the best Republican on the ticket, He will get a good chunk of Democrats, including many moderates and liberals. His win will be the biggest.

[EastwoodS]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.