Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[KYRockefeller]

One name that can't be ignored is Mike Harmon, the state auditor.  He's got that Mike Pence-like lane for the socially conservative Republicans and also has ties to the old Tea Party movement.  He's also done a good job in the state auditor role and there's not much left for him to do in state government except run for the top job.

I think the strongest GOP candidate is either James Comer or Ryan Quarles.  Both have good ratings in the state, avoid the extremes that other GOP candidates can be tied in with, and can point to accomplishments as agriculture commissioners, which can boost their numbers in Kentucky's rural areas.

For Beshear to win he's going to need to get big margins from Louisville and Lexington and then repeat a lot of the map against Bevin.  Problem is, any candidate that doesn't have Matt Bevin's baggage is going to make that tough.  For example, I can't see Beshear winning the same number of votes in Northern Kentucky that he did in 2019.

[KYRockefeller]

It's also hard to predict how a GOP primary will go because of how low turnout is in these off-year elections.  Something like 20% or less of voters participate on the regular, so the candidate who can fire up just enough voters will get across the finish line.  Can lead to wacky results because I don't think a lot of people seriously thought Matt Bevin was going to be the nominee in 2015, even after abuse allegations against Comer surfaced in the race.

A change in KY electoral law to where the gubernatorial nominees don't have to name their running mate until after the primary might also create a more crowded field than usual.

[KYRockefeller]

State Rep. Savannah Maddox is running.

Does she have a chance?

If she ends up being the nominee, Beshear will cruise to re-election.

Almost anyone has a chance in this fractured Republican primary.  Since there is no runoff, a candidate could easily win it with less than 25% of the vote.

[KYRockefeller]

I have argued here before that Ryan Quarles is the best opponent for Beshear because of his strength in rural areas (and how he could drive turnout there).  If Cameron wins the primary, I think Beshear wins the general election somewhat comfortably.  I will probably end up voting Beshear if Quarles isn't the nominee because I just see Cameron as an empty suit.

[KYRockefeller]

Showed up right at 6 a.m. when the polls opened in a Northern KY county and had to wait about 15 minutes to vote.  Split my ticket for Beshear and Enlow (ag commissioner) and GOP for everything else.

[KYRockefeller]

Beshear looks headed for a win but has no coattails.  All the other GOP candidates are up by big double digits.

[KYRockefeller]

Beshear looks headed for a win but has no coattails.  All the other GOP candidates are up by big double digits.

Sure, but that's not a surprise at all.

Not a surprise but it shows the limits of some of his electoral reach.  And it doesn't bode well for the future of the state Democratic Party.

[KYRockefeller]

Beshear looks headed for a win but has no coattails.  All the other GOP candidates are up by big double digits.

Sure, but that's not a surprise at all.

Not a surprise but it shows the limits of some of his electoral reach.  And it doesn't bode well for the future of the state Democratic Party.

Well yeah, Beshear will probably be the last Democrat elected statewide, barring another Bevin perfect storm.

The trends are pretty grim, but their bench isn’t empty. If he runs again, Rocky Adkins might give them a fighting chance.

Rocky is already 64 years old.  Not really fresh blood for them.

I guess the Dems can have Allison Grimes come back out but some of her brand was tarnished near the end of her time as Secretary of State.

However, Adkins and Grimes are probably all the Dems have for 2027 at this point.  And Adkins abortion position is going to be a tough sell in a primary.