Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(NHK)
Interesting political tradition in Japan: on election nights you have all the party candidates' names on a wall, and flowers are placed next to their names if they get elected.

[jaichind]

Interesting political tradition in Japan: on election nights you have all the party candidates' names on a wall, and flowers are placed next to their names if they get elected.

Yes, and the party leader is expected to do this live in front of the press.  It makes it very embarrassing for said party leader if the results are poor for his/her party.

[jaichind]

岡山(Okayama) 3rd LDP rebel upsets LDP incumbant.  CDP and JRP vote there must have consolidated behind him to defeat LDP.  He is the son of a long-time LDP kingpin who joined JRP before rejoining LDP before he retired.  He will re-join LDP anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting political tradition in Japan: on election nights you have all the party candidates' names on a wall, and flowers are placed next to their names if they get elected.

Yes, and the party leader is expected to do this live in front of the press.  It makes it very embarrassing for said party leader if the results are poor for his/her party.

Taro Aso must have felt very humiliated in 2009 when he had to do the ritual. One of the cases where what you aren't doing stands out more often than what you are doing.

[jaichind]

Intense campaign schedule 茨城(Ibaraki) 7th incumbent MP 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō).  He has been an MP since 1976 as a LDP MP until the 1990s when he became a pro-LDP independent as he was leading a rebel LDP faction at the local level of 茨城(Ibaraki).  Starting in 2005 he and the local LDP had an all out war and the LDP started to run candidates against him to no avail.  After 2017 he decided to join CDP so he will run as CDP candidate this year.

It seems he plans to give 20+ speeches each day at different locations of his district.  I suspect by the end of the election campaign every voter would have had the chance to hear him speak.

First LDP upset of the night.  LDP wins this seat.  I guess the LDP base in this district will vote for 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) as a LDP rebel but not as CDP candidate.

[Logical]

From the interviews, no one but the JRP sounds pleased.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.  Not much changed. A few marginal seats coming in which are going more to CDP.

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          135            64          199       
KP               6            18            24           
JRP            15            16            31           
DPP             6              2              8           
CDP           30            33            63         
RS              0              0              0         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              8              9           
Ind.          11                              8  (5 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              204            141         345
       (85 uncalled)  (35 uncalled)     

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) 6th was a flip in favor of LDP due to CDP incumbent retiring.  Not a hug surprise as this seat was viewed as a tossup lean LDP anyway.  JRP/NPD vote making their presence shown.

[Lachi]

北海道(Hokkaido) 6th was a flip in favor of LDP due to CDP incumbent retiring.  Not a hug surprise as this seat was viewed as a tossup lean LDP anyway.  JRP/NPD vote making their presence shown.

I think there were also some local factors happening there, CDP lost Asahikawa council over bullying and suicide controversies

[jaichind]

LDP takes 京都(Kyoto) 1st beating back the best JCP chance to win a second district seat.

[jaichind]

From the interviews, no one but the JRP sounds pleased.

That would make sense.  JRP in the high 30s was unexpected and it must have come at the expense of CDP on the PR slate.  In the meantime, LDP looks set to lose a bunch of FPTP seats which cannot be a happy election night for them.

I would argue DPP should be happy.  They will win at least 6 district seats as opposed to the expected 5.  They most likely will win at least 2 PR seats.  Sorts fit the narrative that the voters seem to be negative on both LDP and CDP.

[jaichind]

Wow.  Ozawa is behind by 2% with half the vote counted. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow.  Ozawa is behind by 2% with half the vote counted. 

Does Ozawa have a PR block seat to fall back on?

[jaichind]

Wow.  Ozawa is behind by 2% with half the vote counted. 

Does Ozawa have a PR block seat to fall back on?

Yes. So he will get in.  But to be reduced to losing the first time is a humiliation.  I still think he barely wins.

[jaichind]

Off to take my kid to his soccer game.  Will follow at the game but will not be able to post much in the next couple of hours as the critical results come.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.  Very slow for now as votes are counted.  I expect a lot of seat to be called in the next hour though.

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          137            64          201       
KP               6            18            24           
JRP            15            16            31           
DPP             6              2              8           
CDP           31            33            64         
RS              0              0              0         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              8              9           
Ind.          11                              8  (5 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              207            141         348
       (82 uncalled)  (35 uncalled)     

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Off to take my kid to his soccer game.  Will follow at the game but will not be able to post much in the next couple of hours as the critical results come.

Best of luck! Thank you for your hard work.

[Logical]

Woah, NHK calls it against Ozawa. RIP to the puppet master. End of an era. The margin is narrow enough that he'll make it back on a PR slot, but he will never regain the backroom influence he had.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LDP doing well in Yamagata-ken
Yamagata-1 has LDP incumbent up 60-40 with 35% in.
Yamagata-2 has LDP incumbent up 61-39 with 75% in.
Yamagata-3 has LDP incumbent up 65-31 with 53% in.

[jaichind]

Looks like KP wins Hokkaido 10th.  Amazing magic they must have. 

[urutzizu]

If Ishin no kai is going to, in aggregate, take about 80% of what the LDP going to lose, as it is (without prejudicing the count), looking like, that is a actually dismal for CDP-JCP. I struggle to see how either Edano or the JCP are going to be able to justify continuing the alliance. And that creates the problem that if CDP-JCP cooperation turns voters to Ishin, and CDP-Ishin cooperation is non-viable (not least because Ishin would refuse after seeing that their fortune is non-cooperation with the major parties), and no Alliance is means the opposition splitting three ways, it is very hard to imagine LDP losing again as long as the JCP, well, exists as a relevant party.

[Lachi]

Komei indeed do end up winning Tokyo 12

[jaichind]

The marginal results coming in indicate that LDP should be around 240 seats and a bit better than exit polls indicated.  CDP has underperformed somewhat. 

[Logical]

Former DPJ leader Kaeda Banri loses in Tokyo 1st. CDP are generally doing worse than the exit polls in Tokyo.

[CascadianIndy]

Party Support amongst Independents (NHK Exit Poll)

CDP 23.6
LDP 21.2
JRP 18.9
DPP 8.9
JCP 7.1
RS 6.8
KP 6.3
SDP 2.4