Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[CascadianIndy]

https://morningconsult.com/form/global-leader-approval/

Suga at a jaw-droppingly bad 26% approval and 63% disapproval in MorningConsult. Looks like the Olympics aren't giving that much of a boost to him. I'll get the popcorn ready for the LDP leadership this September!

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/jijicom/status/1423785719714095105

Multiple candidates looking to jump into the LDP leadership race this September.

[CascadianIndy]

New Osaka-only poll.

Do you approve of the Kishida Cabinet?

Approve 42
Disapprove 33
No answer 25

Which party do you support?
JRP 30
LDP 27
CDP 10
KP 8
JCP 7
DPFP 1
RS 1
SDP 1
Other 1
PNHK 0
No answer/Refuse to answer 16

[CascadianIndy]

Kyodo poll on 東北 (Tohoku) PR bloc

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                    34.9         40.1         34.6
KP                        5.7         10.8         11.0
PNHK                    1.1          1.8
JRP                       4.7          4.5          3.0
DPP/HP                 2.9          9.7         21.7
CDP                    23.3        16.5         18.1
RS                       2.2          3.9
SDP                     1.5          3.2          2.5
JCP                      7.8          8.2          7.4

LDP-KP               40.6        50.9         45.6
Center-Left+JCP  37.7        41.5         49.7 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

A little better for LDP-KP relative to 2017 when compared to 北関東 (North Kanto).  Still adjusting for some of 2017 HP PR vote going to JRP 2021 looks more like 2017 than 2019.

May I enquire on how you have the 2017/2019 percentages for PR blocs? Neither English nor Japanese Wikipedia seem to have them.

[CascadianIndy]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/kanagawa/news/20211021-OYTNT50109/

Yomiuri Shimbun Kanagawa Poll, October 19th-20th

Kishida Cabinet Approval/Disapproval

Approval 40
Disapproval 38

Party Approval

LDP 38
CDP 18
JCP 6
KP 5
JRP 3

PR Bloc Voting Intention

LDP 37
CDP 25
JCP 9
KP 7
JRP 6

Voting Intention Among Independents

CDP 25
LDP 14
JRP 8
JCP 8
Won't Disclose 10

Will you go and vote?

Definitely will vote 79
Somewhat will 13

For CDP, Komeito, and JCP supporters, all of them had more than 85% of them answering that they would definitely go vote. The number was 79% amongst LDP supporters. 69% of non-partisan respondents also answered that they would definitely go (54% in the previous election). By age group, 83% who answered they would definitely go vote were 70 years old or older, and the lowest were 18-29 years old, which was at 66%.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1452273410600439808

NHK calls it for YAMAZAKI, the CDP+DPFP endorsed Independent in the Shizuoka Upper House by-election.



Who wants to take bets on how many knives are sticking out of Kishida's back two weeks from now?

[CascadianIndy]

JX out with some new polls today:

Osaka City PR Voting Intention

JRP：30.1% (+4.8%)
LDP：17.3% (-0.3%)
CDP：9.3% (+3.8%)
JCP：6.8% (-1.2%)
KP：5.3% (-3.2%)

Kyoto City PR Voting Intention

LDP：23.9% (-1.8%)
JCP：15.1% (+2.8%)
CDP：12.4% (-1.9%)
JRP：11.7% (+5.6%)
KP：5.3% (+1.8%)

Kobe City PR Voting Intention

LDP：23.4%(-0.8%)
JRP：17.4%(+1.9%)
CDP：16.2%(+2.1%)
JCP：6.3%(-0.2%)
KP：5.4%(-0.4%)

https://www.asahi.co.jp/abc-jx-shuinsen2021/

[CascadianIndy]

Fuji News Network has results after they conducted a survey at the midway point of the campaign.

LDP → Chances to have a simple majority (233 seats) alone is small.
KP → Maintaining the predicted number of seats before election began.

CDP → Possibility of adding 30 seats (potential end result around 140 in seat count, total).
JCP → Growth primarily concentrated in PR Bloc seats.
JRP → Tripled the strength before the election began.
DPFP → Struggling hard in FPTP districts, impossible to imagine them maintaining their 8 seats pre-election.
SDP → Maintaining their seat in the FPTP district.
Reiwa → Doing as expected in the PR Bloc vote.
PNHK → Nowhere for them to get a seat.

[CascadianIndy]

Not sure if those factor in the Shizouka HoC by-election result.

Anyways, here's my current judgement of the campaigns so far at the midway point!

LDP: Midding, bleh campaign until yesterday's by-election. Seems like the problem might not just be Suga, but the party itself. After Shizuoka, I think it's gone from middling to subpar, though the floor hasn't fallen out yet. Expect Abe, Amari, and Aso to spend the next week yelling RIKKEN KYOSAN so loudly that someone tries to sue them for defamation. Floor of 200 seats, ceiling of 255, leaning towards the former more than the latter now.

KP: No big jumps forward but not getting dragged down by extension of the LDP either. Might end this election with more leverage than they had coming into it, especially if it gets really bad for Kishida on election night and he has to form an actual coalition. I expect them to get mid-20s to low 30s in the seat count (exciting, I know)

CDP: Seems to be doing well in the FPTP districts (oppo. consolidation goes brrrrrrr) but meh in PR Bloc. Still likely to gain seats nevertheless, and after Shizouka's bloody nose, might outperform my originally low expectations of around 120 seats. Floor of 120-something, ceiling of 160 on their realistic best night.

JCP: Almost guaranteed to take a hit in the national FPTP vote because of pulling out so many candidates it makes the 2009 roster look whole. That being said, they're gambling that the PR Bloc seats they'll get as a result of FPTP United Opposition, PR JCP voters will get them in a better position compared to where they started from. Floor of 14, ceiling in low 20s. Personally, I'm keeping an eye on Kyoto's 1st for a potential (semi) long shot pickup.

DPFP: The rump of a rump party ain't doing so hot. Shizuoka might be a good morale booster but I'm skeptical they end the election with more seats than they came in with. Maybe a future merger with the JRP is in the cards? I don't know, I'm just spitballing. Floor at 4 seats, ceiling at 6.

JRP: On track for a really good night if all things hold up. Looks like they might wipe everyone else off the map barring a few stragglers in Osaka, and seem to be doing surprisingly well in the Kinki (and to an extent Chugoku??) PR Bloc vote. May be vital to the plans of anybody looking to form government if Kishida somehow manages to screw the pooch to hell and back. Floor of 24, ceiling in the mid-30s.

SDP: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. They'll keep Okinawa's 2nd but that's basically it. Bets on when they might fold into the CDP?

RS: After Taro Yamamoto nearly kamikazed the hopes and dreams of the Opposition in Tokyo's 8th, he seems to have undergone some character development and pulled back a lot. I think he'll make it into the HoR by way of PR Bloc in Tokyo, and maybe one or two more people follow him along. Floor of 0, ceiling of 3 on their best night.

PNHK: Genuinely no idea what these guys have been up to. Regardless, almost certainly not getting a seat, district or PR-wise.

[CascadianIndy]

Toyama Prefecture PR Bloc Voting Intention

LDP：43.2%
JRP：13.3%
CDP：13.0%
KP：5.1%
JCP：4.7%
DPP：2.8%

[CascadianIndy]

>LDP 218-297
this is just funny at this point

[CascadianIndy]

Long term lurker in this thread, just wanted to say thanks to jaichind for all his posting in here and also ask if anyone knew of any good english sources on Japanese postwar politics, especially on the socialist party? (Found some on the LDP today)

Japan At The Crossroads: Conflict and Compromise After Anpo is really good and touches on the history of the Japanese Left from the end of the war to the New Left's rise and fall. Great book overall as well!

[CascadianIndy]

Party Support amongst Independents (NHK Exit Poll)

CDP 23.6
LDP 21.2
JRP 18.9
DPP 8.9
JCP 7.1
RS 6.8
KP 6.3
SDP 2.4

[CascadianIndy]

Holy , Edano is in danger right now...

Isn't he always in close races though?

[CascadianIndy]

who's ready for the Japanese Opposition to implode again

[CascadianIndy]

Ishin seems to have taken Hyogo's 6th.

[CascadianIndy]

Ishin seems to have taken Hyogo's 6th.

This would not be surprising, Hyogo is good territory for Ishin of course.

Hyogo's 7th also seems close.

[CascadianIndy]

Mie 2nd fell to LDP.  Mie is also a place where the anti-LDP vot eis also mostly anti-JCP.   The CDP-JCP alliance most likely played a role. 

I wonder where the JCP alliance actually helped the CDP instead of hurting it.

Aichi's the main blaring red light here.

[CascadianIndy]

Edano refuses to step down as CDP leader.   This is not a good look for him or CDP. 

is there any talent left to lead the party or are they, like most LDP leaders, a charisma black hole

[CascadianIndy]

Edano OUT as CDP leader.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/02/national/cdp-leader-yukio-edano-quit-post-poor-election-results/