Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Logical]

CDP got very lucky in Niigata.

Niigata 4th
CDP 50.1
LDP 49.9

Niigata 6th
CDP 49.8
LDP 49.3

 

[CascadianIndy]

Ishin seems to have taken Hyogo's 6th.

This would not be surprising, Hyogo is good territory for Ishin of course.

Hyogo's 7th also seems close.

[jaichind]

Mie 2nd fell to LDP.  Mie is also a place where the anti-LDP vot eis also mostly anti-JCP.   The CDP-JCP alliance most likely played a role. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ishin seems to have taken Hyogo's 6th.

This would not be surprising, Hyogo is good territory for Ishin of course.

Hyogo's 7th also seems close.

Makes sense.

[xelas81]

NHK calls for CDP leader Yukio Edano (Saitama 5th)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good ol Naoto Kan has won for a 15th time, beating back a concerted LDP effort to defeat him.

Very much an Atlas Poster in spirit if not reality. Excellent news.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mie 2nd fell to LDP.  Mie is also a place where the anti-LDP vot eis also mostly anti-JCP.   The CDP-JCP alliance most likely played a role. 

I wonder where the JCP alliance actually helped the CDP instead of hurting it.

[CascadianIndy]

Mie 2nd fell to LDP.  Mie is also a place where the anti-LDP vot eis also mostly anti-JCP.   The CDP-JCP alliance most likely played a role. 

I wonder where the JCP alliance actually helped the CDP instead of hurting it.

Aichi's the main blaring red light here.

[jaichind]

CDP-JCP alliance costing it votes in Rengo territory shows the dilemma of the opposition.  It seems the vote base is divided into

LDP           30%
KP             12%
Libertarian  10% (JRP)
Populist      10% (DPP/Rengo and anti-LDP anti-JCP forces)
Social Dem 20% (CDP)
JCP            10%

Social Dem vote rejects an alliance with Libertarian bloc.  Populist vote rejects an alliance with JCP.

So if CDP goes for an alliance with Populist and Libertarian forces (2014 DPJ-JIP tactical alliance) some of the Social Dem vote defects to JCP.  Now if Social Dem goes for an alliance with JCP the Populist vote goes over to JRP or LDP.

Their way out is to try to rope in KP but KP seems to get what it wants out of LDP alliance so no dice there.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          183            67          250       
KP               9            19            28           
JRP            16            18            34           
DPP             6              3              9           
CDP           55            33            89         
RS              0              0              0         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              8              9           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              283            149         432
        (6 uncalled)  (27 uncalled)     

CDP totally underperformed as did JCP.  For most of the outstanding PR seats, I expect to go to CDP KP JCP and JRP.

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) was another CDP disaster.  It was expected to be CDP 4 LDP 1 and it ended up being LDP 4 CDP 1.  The main issue again is the CDP-JCP alliance.  LDP is relatively weak in 長野(Nagano) where JCP is strong as well as the non-JCP opposition.  Previous elections for the Upper House where CDP-DPP and JCP worked together always swept away LDP.  This time the anti-LDP anti-JCP vote defected to LDP.

I guess the main issue is the Lower House election is for national power and the Upper House elections are to blow off steam.  So the anti-LDP anti-JCP vote can back CDP-JCP in the Upper House elections but will defect to LDP in Lower House elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          183            67          250       
KP               9            19            28           
JRP            16            18            34           
DPP             6              3              9           
CDP           55            33            89         
RS              0              0              0         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              8              9           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              283            149         432
        (6 uncalled)  (27 uncalled)     

CDP totally underperformed as did JCP.  For most of the outstanding PR seats, I expect to go to CDP KP JCP and JRP.

Disappointing for CDP. Ishin no kai and LDP-KP seem to be only real winners from this election.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          186            68          254       
KP               9            19            28           
JRP            16            19            35         
DPP             6              3              9           
CDP           56            35            91         
RS              0              1              1         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              8              9           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              287            153         440
        (2 uncalled)  (23 uncalled)     

LDP will end up in the high 250s.  Asahi projections have been vindicated.

[jaichind]

The CDP-JCP alliance was supposed to help CDP in the Greater Tokyo area but they underperformed there as well.  Only in 神奈川(Kanagawa) did CDP perform expectations.
 

[jaichind]

What can LDP do:  I think they can only double down on "Communist !! Communist !! Communist !!".  It is too late to come up with some positive messages such as economic growth or economic redistribution or make Japan influential on the world stage.  To come out with a new theme like that the last week of the election will seem fake and opportunist.  They can only go after CDP on their alliance with JCP which they have been doing the last couple of weeks and hope that the 静岡(Shizuoka) result shows that there is a significant anti-LDP anti-JCP vote out there that voted against the LDP in 静岡(Shizuoka) because the JCP ran separately but would vote LDP once they see that the CDP and JCP are in alliance in said district.

This was what the LDP did and it worked.  They bet there was a significant anti-LDP anti-JCP vote which included the JRP and went after that vote warning about JCP coming into power.  This vote materialized.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

[jaichind]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

His seat was the only one where I predicted a LDP win but it ended up a CDP win.  There are 4 other seats where I expected LDP to win but they lost but it was not to CDP

[jaichind]

The PR vote seems massive for LDP.  KP underperformed a bit on the PR slate. LDP-KP might end up with around 49% of the vote versus 46%-47% that many including myself expected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh boy, this is looking increasingly awful.

Ichirō Ozawa losing after fifty two years counts as a silver lining even if it's an LDP gain. Wicked, evil man.

Lots of dirty old bastards got stomped this election, both from the LDP and opposition. It does feel like a "generational change" election more than a "punish LDP" one.

So this election might not be as bad as some think?

[jaichind]

Between NHK and Asahi 宮城(Miyagi) 1st is the only seat left uncalled.  I think it will go CDP.

[Logical]

It's frankly amazing how the 2 CDP incumbents in Saga manages to win again in a very rural and LDP leaning prefecture.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have there been any boundary changes since 2017?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have there been any boundary changes since 2017?

No.
(First time this has been true since 2012)

[jaichind]

Just like 2017, as the count comes to the end somehow the news sites have extra LDP winners than I have.  The reason is the same as 2017.   The LDP has retroactively nominated winners in 東京(Tokyo) 15th and 奈良(Nara) 3rd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have there been any boundary changes since 2017?

No.
(First time this has been true since 2012)

Right. And when are the block seats determined?