Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/34.5/137/&contents=forecast&lang=en
JMA weather forecast for the next 3 days. Mostly sunny on Friday, clear and sunny everywhere on Saturday and cloudy but not rainy on Sunday. Temperatures are actually quite warm for late October. In 2017 there was a typhoon that depressed turnout.

In 2014 there was a snowstorm election which also depressed turnout.  On the flipside 2019 Upper House elections had very good weather yet turnout fell to one of the lowest turnouts for a national election ever.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/34.5/137/&contents=forecast&lang=en
JMA weather forecast for the next 3 days. Mostly sunny on Friday, clear and sunny everywhere on Saturday and cloudy but not rainy on Sunday. Temperatures are actually quite warm for late October. In 2017 there was a typhoon that depressed turnout.

Rain in NoJa spells doom for the CDP

[jaichind]

Final 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) projection

            District         PR          Total                 
LDP          169            70          239             
KP               9            22            31             
JRP            14            18            32             
DPP             5              2              7             
CDP           82            48          140           
RS              0              1              1           
SDP            1              0              1             
JCP             1             15           16             
Ind.            8                              8  (4 pro-LDP 4 anti-LDP?)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

LDP loses ground to JRP and anti-LDP independents compared to his projection a couple of weeks ago.  CDP mostly stays the same

[jaichind]

Thoughts on turnout.  In addition to weather, there are other reasons to believe turnout will be higher than 2017.

a) This is the first election since 2012 where election district boundaries have not changed.  This tends to get marginal voters to turn out since they will not be confused about who the candidates are.  This is especially true in urban areas where marginal anti-LDP tends to reside.

b) There has not been a national election since 2019 so there is a lot less election fatigue.  In 2014 and 2017 there had been an Upper House election the year before.

c) The election clearly is a lot closer than in 2014 and 2017 if you look at the media projections which should increase turnout.

The counterargument against c) would be that there has been very little TV coverage of these projections and they have been confined to print media.  But people who would bother to read those projections are going to vote anyway.  The marginal voter, I suspect, other than hearing about the 静岡(Shizuoka) by-election upset, would have no clue that this election is going to be different from 2014 and 2017.  I guess that is what makes the 静岡(Shizuoka) by-election defeat for LDP significant.

[Logical]

We can say with certainty how turnout will change when we get the latest early voting data either tonight or tomorrow. Meanwhile here's a table of turnout in each prefecture and how they rank in 2017 and 2014. Osaka and Hyogo had abysmal turnout in 2017, so the JRP has a lot of upside in the Kansai PR block if they can pump up the turnout here.

[Lachi]

I wonder if there might be some localised voter turnout depression in Shizuoka and Yamaguchi considering they only just had an election a week ago.

[jaichind]

A table on the 6 media houses projection of the 289 district seats

Red - Solid Ruling bloc (LDP-KP)
Light red - lean ruling bloc
Grey - lean or solid independent
Light blue - lean opposition
Blue - Solid Opposition

Clear divergence between the Right-wing media (Yomiuri, Nikkei, Sankei) vs the Left Wing media (Mainichi, Asahi).  Jiji is more centrist but employee-owned so they count as part of the Left-wing media and their projection are clustered closer to the Left Wing media projections

[jaichind]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

[jaichind]

Local 福島(Fukushima) media PR poll.   Pretty good poll for CDP and LDP.  
 

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                       37         38.2         31.7
KP                          7          12.8         11.3
PNHK                      1           1.8
JRP                         4           5.3          3.3
DPP/HP                   3         12.1         22.4
CDP                      29         13.6         19.0
RS                          2          4.0
SDP                        2          3.0          3.3
JCP                         8          8.0          7.8

LDP-KP                 44         51.0         43.0
Center-Left+JCP    44         40.7         52.5 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

Comparison of the poll to 2019 and 2017 shows that the result is most likely to be between 2017 and 2019 which is not bad for LDP which was hoping to match 2019 PR vote levels.


An interesting part about this poll is that the CDP does relatively better on the PR vote with men while LDP does relatively better on the PR vote with women which goes against CW.

The latest version of the same poll by the local  福島(Fukushima)  has it at

LDP       36 (-1)
KP           8 (+1)
PNHK      1
JRP         5 (+1)
DPP        2 (-1)
CDP      32 (+3)
RS         2
SDP       2
JCP        8

LDP-KP vs Center Left-JCP balance went from 44 vs 44 to 44 vs 46 with JRP also gaining 1.

Looks like LDP-KP PR vote will be just above 2017 levels which are less than they had hoped.

Note the gender gap is working the opposite than expected where CDP is outperforming with men and LDP as well as JRP is outperforming with women.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/34.5/137/&contents=forecast&lang=en
JMA weather forecast for the next 3 days. Mostly sunny on Friday, clear and sunny everywhere on Saturday and cloudy but not rainy on Sunday. Temperatures are actually quite warm for late October. In 2017 there was a typhoon that depressed turnout.

Rain in NoJa spells doom for the CDP

I un-recommended this post just so that I could recommend this post twice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Local 福島(Fukushima) media PR poll.   Pretty good poll for CDP and LDP. 
 

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                       37         38.2         31.7
KP                          7          12.8         11.3
PNHK                      1           1.8
JRP                         4           5.3          3.3
DPP/HP                   3         12.1         22.4
CDP                      29         13.6         19.0
RS                          2          4.0
SDP                        2          3.0          3.3
JCP                         8          8.0          7.8

LDP-KP                 44         51.0         43.0
Center-Left+JCP    44         40.7         52.5 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

Comparison of the poll to 2019 and 2017 shows that the result is most likely to be between 2017 and 2019 which is not bad for LDP which was hoping to match 2019 PR vote levels.


An interesting part about this poll is that the CDP does relatively better on the PR vote with men while LDP does relatively better on the PR vote with women which goes against CW.

The latest version of the same poll by the local  福島(Fukushima)  has it at

LDP       36 (-1)
KP           8 (+1)
PNHK      1
JRP         5 (+1)
DPP        2 (-1)
CDP      32 (+3)
RS         2
SDP       2
JCP        8

LDP-KP vs Center Left-JCP balance went from 44 vs 44 to 44 vs 46 with JRP also gaining 1.

Looks like LDP-KP PR vote will be just above 2017 levels which are less than they had hoped.

Note the gender gap is working the opposite than expected where CDP is outperforming with men and LDP as well as JRP is outperforming with women.

If LDP-KP does better than CDP-JCP among the female vote, what would the likeliest reasons be?

[jaichind]

Another fun district to talk about is 新潟(Niigata) 5th.  This race should be called LDP vs LDP vs LDP or the battle of governors.

This district was 田中眞紀子(Tanaka Makiko) old district.  She is the daughter of old LDP PM Tanaka and the leader of the powerful Tanaka faction which is the answer of the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction.  She was a LDP MP but after a falling out with Koizumi Senior shifted over to the DPJ.

The LDP in 2005 and 2009 ran 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) to try to dislodge Tanaka to no avail.  In 2012 the LDP decided to run the retiring governor of 新潟(Niigata) 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi).  In anger 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) joined JRP and also ran in this district.  長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) won due to the anti-DPJ wave of 2012.    米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi)  ran in 2013 for the JRP in the Upper house but was not elected.  In 2014 DPJ JRP and PLP had a series of tactical alliances and JRP gave 新潟(Niigata) 5th to PLP to take on 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) in a losing effort in 2014.

In 2016 the non-Osaka branch of JRP merged into DP so 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) found himself as a member of DP.  He chooses to run in 2016 新潟(Niigata) governor race as a united opposition candidate against 森民夫(Mori Tamio) who ran as a pro-LDP candidate.   米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) won in a narrow race on the nuclear power plant issue. 

In 2018  米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) was forced to resign when it turned out he was a sugar daddy for a college girl.  Since 2018 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) has been laying low waiting to make a political comeback.  His chance came when he got de facto CDP support to take on 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) in 2021.  His chances rose when it also turned out his 2018 pro-LDP opponent 森民夫(Mori Tamio) is also running as a LDP rebel.

So the election is LDP vs LDP vs LDP in the sense that all 3 candidates have LDP backgrounds.
It is also the battle of governors as 2 of the 3 candidates are former governors and one of them ran unsuccessfully for governor.

Before the campaign, it was CW that 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) had the upper hand.  The media polls seem to indicate that 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) has the edge and might be running away with it by scoping up the Center-Left Opposition, JCP, and JRP vote while the LDP and LDP rebel is splitting the LDP-KP vote.

One way or another this race would be a fun one to track election night.

[jaichind]

If LDP-KP does better than CDP-JCP among the female vote, what would the likeliest reasons be?

I would imagine it is the rural women's vote that is socially conservative and more importantly conformist.   福島(Fukushima)  is a rural prefecture.  So if LDP is socially more acceptable which is true then they are likely to answer that they are voting LDP and more likely to vote LDP in reality.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If LDP-KP does better than CDP-JCP among the female vote, what would the likeliest reasons be?

I would imagine it is the rural women's vote that is socially conservative and more importantly conformist.   福島(Fukushima)  is a rural prefecture.  So if LDP is socially more acceptable which is true then they are likely to answer that they are voting LDP and more likely to vote LDP in reality.

That would make sense.
I'm reminded of how Kishida complimented his wife's okonomiyaki in his first tweet as LDP President.

[jaichind]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

[swf541]

Long term lurker in this thread, just wanted to say thanks to jaichind for all his posting in here and also ask if anyone knew of any good english sources on Japanese postwar politics, especially on the socialist party? (Found some on the LDP today)

[CascadianIndy]

Long term lurker in this thread, just wanted to say thanks to jaichind for all his posting in here and also ask if anyone knew of any good english sources on Japanese postwar politics, especially on the socialist party? (Found some on the LDP today)

Japan At The Crossroads: Conflict and Compromise After Anpo is really good and touches on the history of the Japanese Left from the end of the war to the New Left's rise and fall. Great book overall as well!

[swf541]

Long term lurker in this thread, just wanted to say thanks to jaichind for all his posting in here and also ask if anyone knew of any good english sources on Japanese postwar politics, especially on the socialist party? (Found some on the LDP today)

Japan At The Crossroads: Conflict and Compromise After Anpo is really good and touches on the history of the Japanese Left from the end of the war to the New Left's rise and fall. Great book overall as well!

Thanks! Doing some research for my hoi4 mod.

[jaichind]

One problem that occurs with Japanese vote-counting is that the voter writes in the name of the candidate or party on the ballot versus a checkbox.  I guess that is one form of a literacy test.  

Anyway, the question arises when what is written onto the ballot is ambiguous.  For names either the first or last name of the candidate is fine.  If there is more than one candidate sharing the same name and the name written on the ballot does not make clear which of the candidate the voter intended (writing the age of the candidate next to the name would be acceptable) then the vote would be pro-rated allocated to the duplicate candidate.

For the party name on the PR ballot, a similar problem exists.  Common simplification of party names is acceptable.   For example, the formal name of LDP is 自由民主党 but writing 自民 or 自 is acceptable.   See the chart below on what are acceptable abbreviations.    One problem is the word 民主 which was the abbreviation for DPJ.  Since both CDP and DPP has the word 民主 in their party name if a voter writes 民主 on the PR ballot it will be split on a pro-rated basis between CDP and DPP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/12ab392fb9d0dc2b9e7e22d1d9548875b1484f35

Around 16.62 million early votes were cast which is almost 1 million more than 2017. VAP is around 105 million so that is around 2% higher turnout in early vote versus 2017.

Note that in 2017 because of the impending hurricane on election day there was a flurry of early voting in the last two days of early voting which end up cannibalizing the election day vote.   Turnout in 2017 was around 52.5%.  By these trends, turnout will for sure cross 55% and very likely 56%.  I think LDP-KP can survive this type of turnout without a disaster.  If it gets up to 60% LDP-KP will be in big trouble.

[Logical]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20211029-2NFQVGSQTBJARLLFO4C7ZGGYBE/
Sankei/FNN did a follow up poll on 100 constituencies of which ~60 are considered tossups. They found that LDP are now comfortably ahead in 4, CDP in 17 with the rest remaining close. Unfortunately I am unable to find a non paywall version so no details on the seat breakdown.

[jaichind]

Different election results pages

NHK:            https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2021/
Ashai/ANN:   https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/shuinsen/
Yomiuri:        https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/shugiin/
Mainichi:       https://mainichi.jp/senkyo/49shu/
Nikkei:          https://www.nikkei.com/special/shuin2021
Sankei:         https://www.sankei.com/election2021/
NNN:            https://www.ntv.co.jp/election2021/
JNN:             https://www.tbs.co.jp/senkyo2021/
FNN/Fuji:      https://www.fnn.jp/subcategory/shugiinsen

Ashai and NHK are always the fastest.  A superset of the two usually is the most up-to-date of count/projections

[jaichind]

My final projection

LDP barely keeps a narrow majority on its own.

LDP does well in rural prefectures but underperforms in the Greater Tokyo prefectures.  CDP does take a slight hit in 愛知(Aichi) due to Rengo blowback against CDP-JCP alliance.  JRP sweeps Osaka and does well in 近畿(Kinki) cutting into the LDP vote with LDP barely dodging the bullet in 兵庫(Hyōgo). LDP does well in Chūgoku(中国) and Shikoku(四国) regions due to Kishida but is hit with unexpected losses in 九州(Kyushu) due to LDP rebels and discontent against the local LDP.

If anything there is more downside for LDP in my view.

            District         PR          Total
LDP          164            69          233
KP               8            22            30
JRP            14            18            32
DPP             4              1              6
CDP           86            49          135
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.           10                            10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition?)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

[xelas81]

Is there is list of seats where independents are likely to win and which are pro vs anti LDP?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When does election day voting begin, and when do polls close?