Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/life/296251
"Leaked" LDP internals by Nikkan Gendai. No topline numbers but they show districts where LDP candidates are neck and neck with their opponents. According to the article itself, JRP is slightly ahead in Osaka 4th, 7th ,9th, 12th and 19th district. The opposition candidate is ahead in Saitama 1st. Most surprising thing is Ozawa Ichiro's name in this list though. It might explain why he chose to spend the first day campaigning in his district instead of touring the country for the first time since he was first elected in 1969.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/70eb8071a74b8ac28d547697ef24539d6100df66

The new version of this leaked LDP poll came out with a new polling results from a couple of days ago in most of the seats (concentrated in those which are close)

https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/10_22-24_.pdf

If anything the LDP gained a few seats in terms of leads although some of the weird results in both directions went away.    If you take the leads implied in this most recent version it sort of implies the LDP will be around 240 seats.

It does have JCP slightly ahead in both Kyoto 1st.

[Logical]

The new version of this leaked LDP poll came out with a new polling results from a couple of days ago in most of the seats (concentrated in those which are close)

https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/10_22-24_.pdf

If anything the LDP gained a few seats in terms of leads although some of the weird results in both directions went away.    If you take the leads implied in this most recent version it sort of implies the LDP will be around 240 seats.

It does have JCP slightly ahead in both Kyoto 1st.

Interesting numbers. The overall picture is closer to the Nikkei/Yomiuri projection than Asahi. Not going to put too much stock in it though given the manner it was "leaked" and the unexplained methodology.

I checked the website you linked to and found more leaked surveys.
Detailed FNN survey results (Oct 23-24): https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/fnn1023_24.pdf
CDP internal polling (Oct 8-10): https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/20211010.pdf

[jaichind]

The new version of this leaked LDP poll came out with a new polling results from a couple of days ago in most of the seats (concentrated in those which are close)

https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/10_22-24_.pdf

If anything the LDP gained a few seats in terms of leads although some of the weird results in both directions went away.    If you take the leads implied in this most recent version it sort of implies the LDP will be around 240 seats.

It does have JCP slightly ahead in both Kyoto 1st.

Interesting numbers. The overall picture is closer to the Nikkei/Yomiuri projection than Asahi. Not going to put too much stock in it though given the manner it was "leaked" and the unexplained methodology.

I checked the website you linked to and found more leaked surveys.
Detailed FNN survey results (Oct 23-24): https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/fnn1023_24.pdf
CDP internal polling (Oct 8-10): https://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/20211010.pdf

Wow. Sounds like you found the wikileaks of this election polling.  I was waiting to see the FNN seat by seat projection so thanks for finding this.  In fact, the FNN projection seems to have a lot of the raw data of the mega poll as well as PR vote per prefecture.  This is so awesome.

As for LDP leaked poll it mostly matches a lot of the trends of the media polls:

a) LDP overperformance in the most rural of Tokyo suburbs 茨城(Ibaraki) as well as 愛知(Aichi)
b) LDP underperformance in Tokyo and Tokyo suburbs
c) JRP sweeping Osaka and JRP strength in urban areas outside of Osaka especially in Kinki
d) LDP very strong in 広島(Hiroshima) and LDP strength in non-deep South rural prefectures
e) LDP doing worse than expected in the Deep South prefectures mostly due to LDP rebels

So there are good reasons to believe this LDP poll is mostly authetnic

[jaichind]

Aggregated media projection map (Red LDP-KP ahead, Blue LDP-KP behind)

[CascadianIndy]

Toyama Prefecture PR Bloc Voting Intention

LDP：43.2%
JRP：13.3%
CDP：13.0%
KP：5.1%
JCP：4.7%
DPP：2.8%

[Logical]

New Kyodo poll (Oct 23-26). LDP at 240-250 which is pretty positive. Seat by seat breakdowns are available and being released by local media.
https://nordot.app/825821686367551488


Nikkei/Yomiuri is on the field with their final poll. We should have the results by the 28th at the earliest.
https://www.nikkei-r.co.jp/news/information/id=8112

[CascadianIndy]

>LDP 218-297
this is just funny at this point

[jaichind]

The reasons given by Kyodo for their large range is due to a large number of undecided and it was hard for them to figure out what the impact of the Opposition alliance would have on the disparate voting blocs of CDP and JCP.  Still the wide range they give is a cop-out. 

[jaichind]

The JRP wave is so powerful in 大阪(Osaka) that the CDP incumbent of the 10th district managed to get a retired an anti-JRP LDP kingpin to campaign with her calling for LDP voters to vote for CDP in the district vote in the 10th district to stop JRP and a vote for LDP on the PR slate.  The sign next to the retired LDP kingpin says "Former LDP General Secretary" just to make it clear to LDP supporters who he is.

 The CDP incumbent also admitted that getting rid of the LDP-KP majority this election will be hard as a way to appeal to LDP voters.

If the CDP incumbent is taking the risk of alienating her CDP-JCP base as well as thinking the LDP vote is winnable then the JRP wave must be powerful indeed.  There is a chance that JRP will sweep all Osaka seats other than the seats allocated to KP as well as the 10th district where CDP will pull it out leaving LDP with zero seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/world/asia/japan-election-communist-party.html

"Japan’s Communists Are Hardly Radical, but Make a Handy Election Target"

NY Times article about LDP-KP election tactic of going after CDP-JCP alliance and warning about JCP potentially getting into the government if LDP-KP loses.

They say "They have minimal support in polls."  JCP support is actually around 8%-10% which is fairly signficant. 

[jaichind]

Despite the CDP-JCP alliance Tokyo Rengo is mostly backing CDP across the board this time as the main anti-LDP party. In the 12th district, they are backing KP over JCP and backing DPP or pro-DPP candidates where they are running but overall they are backing CDP in most districts.

[jaichind]

In 北海道(Hokkaido) even though JRP is running in a few seats it seems to be backing LDP-KP in other seats. 

The face of JRP in 北海道(Hokkaido) is pretty much 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) who is the founder of the LDP splinter NPD. NPD was an on-again-off-again ally of DPJ during 2005-2015.  Once DP started to form an alliance with JCP in the 2016 Upper House elections NPD shifted toward an alliance with LDP. While staying the de facto head of NPD 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) joined JRP while his daughter quit DPJ and joined LDP.

Campaign event with LDP KP and JRP leaders

 
LDP candidate for 6th district campaigning with JRP.  The CDP incumbent retired which gives the LDP a chance to flip this seat and limit losses in face of the CDP-JCP alliance.


This sort of shows the power of CDP-JCP bloc in 北海道(Hokkaido) where JRP is looking to grow has decided to back LDP-KP in some seats.

[jaichind]

Looking at the detailed seat by seat raw data I identified a bunch of fun 3-way battles

1) 東京(Tokyo) 12th - KP vs JCP vs JRP.  KP has the edge but JRP vote share is very high and could throw the race to JCP
2) 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th - CDP vs LDP vs LDP rebel.  Rerun of 2017 where LDP split gives the seat to CDP.  LDP rebel has a DPJ-YP background and was for a while the leader of YP before joining LDP
3) 愛知(Aichi) 10th - LDP vs CDP vs JRP.  Incumbent LDP should win  but JRP candidate has DPJ-YP background and will make gains to make this race closer
4) 京都(Kyoto) 1st - LDP vs JCP vs JRP.  LDP should win but JRP surge could throw the race to JCP
5) 京都(Kyoto) 2nd - LDP vs DPP vs JCP.  Incumbent DPP (was the last leader of DP) should win but JCP surge eating into the CDP vote will make it closer
6) 京都(Kyoto) 4th - LDP vs pro-DPP Ind. vs JCP.  LDP should win but the pro-DPP independent is eating into JRP and CDP vote in a district where JCP is very strong and should win enough votes for LDP to win.
7) 大阪(Osaka) 2nd - LDP vs JRP vs CDP.  JRP surge means it is likely that it will upset the LDP incumbent here
8  ) 大阪(Osaka) 2nd - LDP vs JRP vs CDP.  CDP incumbent has the edge but JRP surge means CDP might need anti-JRP tactical voting by LDP voters to win
9) 兵庫(Hyōgo) 1st - LDP vs CDP vs JRP - JRP surge means CDP is likely to flip this seat
10) 兵庫(Hyōgo) 5th 6th 7th and 10th - LDP vs CDP vs JRP.  All were assumed to be safe seats for LDP but JRP surge is making them competitive with 5th 6th and 7th could see either CDP or JRP winning one of them.

[jaichind]

Sankei(FNN) projection

LDP           237
KP              26 !!!! (this sounds like a disaster for KP)
JRP            30
DPP             6
CDP          136
RS               1
SDP             2 (they won a PR seat)
JCP            17
Ind.           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 anti-LDP?)

Too bad they did not break out the seat projections by district and PR

By taking their detailed district by district data I was able to construct the PR vote share per zone as well as total national vote share.  I got results that are similar but not the same as their projection

            District         PR          Total          PR vote        
LDP          162            76          238            38.1%
KP               8            17            25              9.8%
JRP            14            16            30            10.4%
DPP             6              0              6             2.3%
CDP           86            52          138            25.6%
RS              0              0              0              1.8%
SDP            1              0              1              1.5%
JCP             1             15           16              9.3%
Ind.          11                            11 (6 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

It seems the poor KP showing is more about KP voters indicating they will vote LDP on the PR slate when in reality they will vote KP.  KP at 9.8% is way too low.  They will be in the 12-%14% range depending on turnout.  Also, 38,1% for the LDP PR vote seems too high.  So if you take into account of this LDP most likely is more like 234-335 and KP is more like 28-29 in this projection.

[Logical]

Weekly Bunshun's final projection.
https://archive.md/crr56

[jaichind]

Mainichi has a history of overcompensating for house effect to produce over-optimistic projections for the LDP.

In 2014 their projection was

 

Where they had LDP at 238 districts and 82 PR seats for a massive 320 seats.  While the LDP did win in a landslide in 2014 they ended up with 223 district seats and 68 PR seats for 291 seats.  The projection was off by almost 30 seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/affluent-tokyo-suburb-shows-why-japan-s-opposition-can-t-keep-up

"Affluent Tokyo Suburb Shows Why Japan’s Opposition Can’t Keep Up"

Very misleading article from Bloomberg using 東京(Tokyo) 18th district as an example of why CDP will struggle to come to power within the decade.  Their point is that if CDP is neck to neck in a place like 東京(Tokyo) 18th where former PM 菅直人(Kan Nanto) is running for CDP then CDP has very little chance of winning national power anytime soon.

While I agree with the conclusion (LDP losing majority or even LDP-KP losing majority is one thing, but CDP plus allies winning a majority is another thing), the example they used is a bad one.  They fail to mention that 菅直人(Kan Nanto)'s LDP opponent 長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa) is a long time opposition MP that recently defected to LDP and was moved into the 18th district as an "assassin."  While 長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa) has had Right-wing views on national policy and has poor relationships with other Opposition MP which triggered his recent defection to LDP he has the ability to win over anti-LDP votes.  The fact 菅直人(Kan Nanto) is in a tight race with 長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa) does not prove that CDP is actually not potentially going to do well in urban areas.

Bloomberg is much better of covering the role of JRP and the type of voters JRP appeals to in order to show that with JRP locking up a part of the anti-LDP vote and JRP being much more likely to join a LDP government than a CDP government the chances of CDP forming a majority anytime soon is unlikely.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri final seat analysis shows things are moving slightly against LDP

The number of seats LDP is ahead gone down from 118 to 113 while the number of seats where it is behind, has gone up from 46 to 60.

The median number of district seats for

LDP has gone from 174 to 165
CDP has gone from 79 to 84
JRP has gone from 10 to 15



Note that JRP has ahead or in tossups in 19 seats.  But JRP is only contesting 15 seats in Osaka.  This means JRP is competitive in 4 other seats outside of Osaka.  Most if not all of these 4 must be in 兵庫(Hyōgo)

[jaichind]

Yomiuri one week ago

LDP-KP should cross the stable majority threshold of 261 seats

Yomiuri this week

LDP-KP should cross the workable majority threshold of 244 seats

Of course, they could also be underestimating LDP as part of overcompensating for their house effects.

[jaichind]

Nikkei, on the other hand, which had the most negative projection for the LDP seems to be regressing toward the mean by showing a slight shift toward the LDP from a week ago. 

Nikkei shows LDP gaining slight ground in both LDP vs United Opposition seats as well as LDP vs United Opposition vs JRP seats.

[jaichind]

I guess are headed to two clusters of projections.

a) Yomiuri, Nikkei, Sankei - Right wing media cluster that has LDP at 225-245
b) Mainichi, Kyodo (Kyodo's projections is really based on Mainichi analysis), Asahi - Left-wing media cluster that has LDP at 255-275

The two clusters are really mutually incompatible as we will see election night which cluster is correct.

[jaichind]

Nikkei, on the other hand, which had the most negative projection for the LDP seems to be regressing toward the mean by showing a slight shift toward the LDP from a week ago. 

Nikkei shows LDP gaining slight ground in both LDP vs United Opposition seats as well as LDP vs United Opposition vs JRP seats.

If you eyeball this chart it seems to imply that LDP-KP is ahead in around 175 district seats.  Once you factor in that KP will win around 8 seats that leave LDP ahead in around 167 seats which is identical to the Yomiuri  model that has the median seats LDP is ahead in to be around 165.

[jaichind]

Nikkei PR poll (change from last week)

LDP    38 (-3)
KP       8
PNHK   1(+1)
JRP    10 (+4)
DPP     2
CDP   20 (+1)
RS      2 (+1)
SDP    1
JCP     6

LDP losing ground, mostly in the urban and Northern areas.  JRP surging.

[jaichind]

Nikkan Gendai which is known for various sensationalist articles about LDP setback to drive up sales has a chart on which prefectures the Opposition is expected to perform well (white star) and what the Opposition performance was like in 2017 (White circle as a positive Black circle as negative.)

The main takeaway is that the Opposition is expected to do well in the Tokyo suburbs 埼玉(Saitama),
千葉(Chiba), and 神奈川(Kanagawa) where the LDP did well in 2017 but is expected to supper setbacks.  In other words, Kono country.  Another bloc is the urban prefectures in Kinki which is Osaka and areas around Osaka.  In other words, JRP territory.

[Logical]

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/34.5/137/&contents=forecast&lang=en
JMA weather forecast for the next 3 days. Mostly sunny on Friday, clear and sunny everywhere on Saturday and cloudy but not rainy on Sunday. Temperatures are actually quite warm for late October. In 2017 there was a typhoon that depressed turnout.