Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Updated chart

           2014     2017     2021
Early   12.65    20.15    19.49    
10 00   5.68      7.15      6.32
11 00  11.08    12.24    11.32
14 00  22.66    21.83    21.49
16 00  29.11    26.30    26.78
18 00  34.98    29.99    31.64
19 45  37.72    31.82

Final    53.68    52.65    

You got the final turnout between 2014 and 2017 flipped.

[FredLindq]

I dont get it. Why is Japan Innovation party called JRP!? And why is it labelled libertarian not nationalist any more?!

[Logical]

The turnout pattern is clear:

a) Rural down, urban up
b) Kinki up, North down

Shikoku and southern Kyushu is also up. Must be the typhoon effect.

[jaichind]

I dont get it. Why is Japan Innovation party called JRP!? And why is it labelled libertarian not nationalist any more?!

Very long story.  JRP was formed in 2012 as 日本維新の会 and called Japan Restoration Party.  In 2014 they merged with a part of YP to form 維新の党 and called Japan Innovation Party in English.  In 2016 JIP split with the Osaka branch forming おおさか維新の会 or  Initiatives from Osaka while JIP merged with DPJ to form DP.  After JIP merged into DP, Initiatives from Osaka decided to rename themselves back to the original 日本維新の会.  There was never an English name for this party.  I called it JRP to match the original English name in 2012 but others in the media continue to call them   Japan Innovation Party.

Note that 維新 or  Ishin is what people call them in Japan so there is no confusion.

[jaichind]

As of 6PM turnout changed by prefecture relative to 2017 sorted.  Note this does not take into account early vote in 2017 and 2021 so some of these numbers are going to be off a bit

[jaichind]

My guess on NHK exit polls

LDP     200-240
CDP     120-160
JRP        25-35

[FredLindq]

I dont get it. Why is Japan Innovation party called JRP!? And why is it labelled libertarian not nationalist any more?!

Very long story.  JRP was formed in 2012 as 日本維新の会 and called Japan Restoration Party.  In 2014 they merged with a part of YP to form 維新の党 and called Japan Innovation Party in English.  In 2016 JIP split with the Osaka branch forming おおさか維新の会 or  Initiatives from Osaka while JIP merged with DPJ to form DP.  After JIP merged into DP, Initiatives from Osaka decided to rename themselves back to the original 日本維新の会.  There was never an English name for this party.  I called it JRP to match the original English name in 2012 but others in the media continue to call them   Japan Innovation Party.

Note that 維新 or  Ishin is what people call them in Japan so there is no confusion.

The old JRP seems to be labelled more far right and nationalist and the current JIP more libertarian and centre right. Or?!

[jaichind]

As with other elections, 5-10 min before polls close at 8PM Tokyo time (7AM NY time) NHK live stream

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

Will start to become active where exactly at 8PM Tokyo time they will show their exit poll.

Link is live now

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Exit poll looks...kinda bad for LDP?

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll


LDP    212-253
KP        27-35   
JRP       34-47
DPP        7-12
CDP     99-141
RS         1-5
SDP       0-2
JCP        8-14
Ind        9-14

JRP really outperformed

[Lachi]

Ishin has overpeformed quite a bit, that's very clear

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is Tokyo-8 really going that bad for the LDP?

[Logical]

Exit poll has LDP sec gen Amari behind and bigwig Ishihara immediately defeated lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(NHK News)
Gotta love the motivational posters used by Japanese politicians.

[Lachi]

uhh, ISHIN in the lead in Tokyo 12?

[Logical]

Various exits

NNN

LDP 238
KP 31
CDP 114
JCP 10
DPP 12
JRP 45
RS 2
SDP 1
Independents 12

FNN

LDP 230
KP 31
CDP 130
JCP 14
JRP 39
DPP 7
RS 1
SDP 1
Independents 12

TBS

LDP 239
KP 30
CDP 115
JRP 40
DPP 13
JCP 12
RS 3
SDP 1
Independents 12

[jaichind]

Looking at NHK and Asahi seats called I suspect exit polls might overestimate LDP.  All the toss-up seats being called are against the LDP.  The 九州(Kyushu) LDP setback seems real.

[jaichind]

LDP and JRP do seem to be doing well in the PR section.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So LDP is underperforming, JRP is overperforming, and CDP is roughly meeting expectations?

[Logical]

uhh, ISHIN in the lead in Tokyo 12?

I have no idea what to make of this. Would be the shock of the election surely.

[jaichind]

So LDP is underperforming, JRP is overperforming, and CDP is roughly meeting expectations?

I would say CDP is a bit underperforming depending on how JRP does.  Also JCP underperformed

[Lachi]

where do you find the exit poll results district by district?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So LDP is underperforming, JRP is overperforming, and CDP is roughly meeting expectations?

I would say CDP is a bit underperforming depending on how JRP does.  Also JCP underperformed

Ah. I see.

[jaichind]

Based on the union set of NHK and Ashai calls, upsets so far are

大阪(Osaka) 10th - JRP defeats CDP incumbent - not a huge surprise given Osaka turnout surge
茨城(Ibaraki) 5th - DPP defeats LDP incumbent - big surprise

[jaichind]

uhh, ISHIN in the lead in Tokyo 12?

I have no idea what to make of this. Would be the shock of the election surely.

KP has this.  KP always underperforms in exit polls.