India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Embarrassment for BJP in Assam.

pratidintime .com/beef-is-national-dish-of-india-gauripur-bjp-candidate/

In a surprising turn of events, BJP candidate from Assam’s Gauripur constituency, Banendra Kumar Mushahary, has claimed that beef is the “National Dish” of India.

“How can anyone try to ban beef? It is the National Dish of India,” he said while addressing an election meeting in a Muslim-dominated area.

He added that beef is an international dish and “educated Muslims in the rural areas of Assam should understand that no one can ban the sale of beef in Assam or anywhere in India.”

Notably, the BJP has always been campaigning for beef ban across the country. Mushahary’s statement greatly contradicts the party’s ideologies and principles.

Mushahary, a veteran politician, joined the BJP last year in December. He was first elected  to the Assam Legislative Assembly in 1996 as an independent candidate from Gauripur constituency in Dhubri district.

In 2011, he was elected as an AGP candidate from Gauripur. Later, he joined the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and was elected as an MLA for the third time.

Meanwhile, BJP workers in the districts have expressed serious concern on Mushahary’s remarks and demanded that he tender an apology.

Moreover, members of Purbanchal Hindu Aikya Mancha filed an FIR at Dispur police station and demanded actions against the BJP candidate for violating Model Code of Conduct which was enforced in February 26 in poll-bound Assam.

He is an AGP ex-MLA there.  I guess he is reverting to some of his pre-BJP talking points.  Also he is running in a heavy Muslim area so as long as this news is localized it does not matter since he will lose to AIUDF no matter what.  It is more about BJP embarrassment in Hindu areas outside his district.

[jaichind]

ABP CNX WB poll based on region

Greater Kolkata.   AITC core base and the BJP surge picking up old Left Front Hindu vote reduces AITC with a slight edge



North WB.  Heavy Mulsim presence but slight Hindu majority.  Perfect place for BJP Hindu consolidation to work and it seems it has.  INC and AITC split the Muslim vote while BJP sweeps by consolidating the Hindu vote.



Southeast WB.  Heavy Muslim but slight Hindu majority and old Left Front bastion.  Here it seems the Muslim vote has consolidated behind AITC while some of the old Left Front Hindu vote stayed with Left Front giving AITC edge



Southwest WB.  Not as Muslim heavy so AITC getting most of the Muslim vote is not enough to stop BJP from winning as long as BJP wins enough of the Hindu vote from the Left Front which it did.

[jaichind]

Agreed. I think Jan Ki Baat are too bullish on NDA's prospects in Upper Assam, and maybe Barak Valley.

I always felt that the election will be decided in Bodoland with Lower Assam/Barak Valley canceling out Upper Assam/Tribal areas.  It is totally possible that the NDA sweep in Upper Assam will be so massive that Bodoland does not matter.  But I think polls such such a sweep are most likely underestimating anti-incumbency and pro-incumbency biases of pre-election polls.  Even polls that have NDA winning in Assam has UPA with the edge in Bodoland.  At this point I rather be UPA than NDA.   

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat WB poll has BJP narrowing winning on a near tie in vote share with AITC
                                 
                                 Seats    Vote Share
BJP                             155         44.8%
AITC                           127         44.1%
Left Front-INC-ISF         12            7.5%
 
For the BJP to be ahead before the election is very bad news for AITC and it seems now that BJP is in a good position to win in WB.  A total shock relative to where the BJP was in WB in 2011.

This is a massive leap for BJP even compared to where they were in 2016. One has to assume that the 2019 LS elections convinced all the anti-Trinamool voters to consolidate behind the BJP.

It seems so.  The entire Left Front vote from 2011 have shifted to BJP. 

This seems like a slow motion repeat of Tripura where the cycle

In 2013 Tripura it was Left Front 52.4% INC 36.5% BJP 1.5% IPFT 0.5%.  Then in 2018 under the inspect of the entire INC vote going over to BJP and anti-incumbency against the Left Front it became BJP-IPFT 50.9% Left Front 45.4% INC 1.8%.  The entire 2013 INC vote went over to BJP.

The WB election result will be interesting.  It will show the relative power of quality candidates vs GOTV organization vs party image.  If polls are right it seems BJP might be headed to significant victory (not just a narrow one.) What is holding me back from predicting this is the lack of BJP grassroots organization and a clear candidate quality gap.  On election day perhaps that will just not matter and the Hindu and anti-AITC consolidation will power the BJP to victory.  If so we can perhaps look forward to a future bizarre 2026 BJP vs AITC-Left Front-INC battle.

[jaichind]

In Assam there will be 3 sets of alliance "friendly fights"

INC-AIUDF: Jaleswar, Baghbor, Sarukhetri, Chenga, Dalgaon

I am reasonably sure INC will win all of them even though AIUDF could win Jaleswar.  The vote split most likely will not let NDA in.


BJP-AGP: Patharkandi, Palasbari, Kamalpur, Bihpuria, Naharkatia

This NDA split could let in INC in Patharkandi and Naharkatia but NDA should be safe in the other 3.


BJP-UPPL: Bijni, Kalaigaon, Majbat

BPF most likely was going to win Kalaigaon and Majbat no matter what but this NDA split most likely threw the seat to BPF where as before the BJP had a fighting chance.

[jaichind]

India TV poll for WB has BJP landslide victory

BJP                         183
AITC                         95
Left Front-INC-ISF     16



It is beginning to look more and more like a solid BJP win in WB

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-Voter WB poll

                            Seats       Vote share
AITC                      160            42%
BJP                        112            37%
Left Front-INC-ISF    22            13%
Others                      1              8%

Compared to previous ABP C-Voter WB poll a slight shift from Left Front-INC-ISF to AITC and BJP.  It seems this is about last minute tactical shifts.

[jaichind]

Spick Media poll on TN

                          Seats       Vote share
DMK-INC+             158          42.60%
AIADMK-BJP+          74          34.04%
AMMK+                     2          10.31%
NMN                          0           5.87%
NTK                          0            4.85%  (Tamil Nationalist)
Others                      0            2.51%

A vote share gap of around 6%-7% should imply a DMK-INC+ seat count of around 180 so 158 is an underestimate based on the vote share gap




Seats by party

UPA
DMK          118
INC             22
VCK              5
CPI               3
CPM              3
IMUL             3

NDA
AIADMK       62
PMK              9
BJP               3

INC at 22 is projected to have the best strike rate as it is only contesting 25 seats.  On the NDA side PMK at 9 seats out of 23 contested puts its strike rate at well above the rest of NDA.

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-Voter poll for Assam (no vote share)

              Seats   
NDA          68       
UPA           56       
Others        2       

No change from previous ABP C-Voter poll

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-Voter poll on Kerala (no vote shares)

          Seats   
LDF       77           
UDF      62           
NDA       1             
Ohers     0               

A shift toward UDF from the previous ABP C-voter poll on Kerala

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-Voter poll on TN

                        Seat     
DMK-INC+          177       
AIADMK-BJP+       49         
Others                   8
 
A shift toward DMK-INC+ from previous  ABP C-Voter poll on TN

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-voter poll for Puducherry
     
          Seats       
NDA      21               
UPA         9                 
Others     0               

A shift toward NDA from previous ABP C-voter poll for Puducherry

[jaichind]

Independent pollster Ankit Sharma final WB poll has BJP winning by a good margin

BJP                         160
AITC                       116
Left Front-INC-ISF     18
 


By region

BJP does the best in Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) and North Bengal.  Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) has the least number of Muslims so a Hindu consolidation overcomes AITC edge with Muslims. North Bengal has the most number of Muslims but that just means all Hindus vote BJP while AITC and INC split the Muslim vote.

[jaichind]

Politicalbaaba posted some demographic data on Kerala and demographic voting patterns between the 3 major blocks (LDF UDF NDA)

Other than a large Christian and Muslim blocs, among Hindus the largest are the Upper Caste Nairs and the lower caste Ezhava.  Dalits are also significant.


BJP is very strong with Nairs.  BDJS is a Ezhava based party and helps to rope in Ezhava votes for NDA.





UDF strong with Muslims and Christians, have some strength with Nairs and Ezhava and weak with Dalits





LDF have some support with Muslims and Christians but relies heavily on Ezhava and Dalits as well as some support from Nairs.




The main takeaway is that as NDA rises to capture Nairs they will hurt UDF.  But a further rise of NDA will then hurt LDF by taking away their Ezhava  and Dalit base.  So in the short run UDF have more to fear from NDA but on the long run NDA is a bigger threat to LDF.

[jaichind]

TV9  Bharatvarsh poll on Assam has solid NDA lead in terms of vote share and seats

             Seats     Vote share
NDA         73          45.0%
UPA          50          39.7%
Others       3           15.3%

This type of vote share to seat share translation seems to imply that the INC-AIUDF Muslim vote transfer fails and the NDA does quite well in terms of vote share in Lower Assam although UPA still wins most seats in Lower Assam.  In Upper Assam NDA does sweep and brings home the victory.  Anything else would mean the NDA seat lead is underestimated given a vote share lead of over 5% by NDA.

[eos]

Independent pollster Ankit Sharma final WB poll has BJP winning by a good margin

BJP                         160
AITC                       116
Left Front-INC-ISF     18


By region

BJP does the best in Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) and North Bengal.  Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) has the least number of Muslims so a Hindu consolidation overcomes AITC edge with Muslims. North Bengal has the most number of Muslims but that just means all Hindus vote BJP while AITC and INC split the Muslim vote

I am not sure I would trust this guy.

twitter. com /AyushForIndia/status/1367057702455676936

[eos]

Final ABP C-Voter poll for Assam (no vote share)

              Seats   
NDA          68       
UPA           56       
Others        2       

No change from previous ABP C-Voter poll

Isn't it actually 69-56 in the final poll?

pbs.twimg.com /media/ExQxDnvVcAAGxh9?format=jpg&name=medium (sorry, can't post links yet)

Anyway, according to C-Voter, this is the view on CAA:

Do you think CAA is a threat to indigenous Assamese language and culture?

Yes: 50.9
No: 31.2
Can't Say 17.9

I am surprised NDA is still ahead if the local perception is that CAA is a threat. However, I am also reading some articles about how some communities vehemently opposed to CAA are still supporting BJP because of other factors.

[jaichind]

Independent pollster Ankit Sharma final WB poll has BJP winning by a good margin

BJP                         160
AITC                       116
Left Front-INC-ISF     18


By region

BJP does the best in Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) and North Bengal.  Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) has the least number of Muslims so a Hindu consolidation overcomes AITC edge with Muslims. North Bengal has the most number of Muslims but that just means all Hindus vote BJP while AITC and INC split the Muslim vote

I am not sure I would trust this guy.

twitter. com /AyushForIndia/status/1367057702455676936

Thanks for this notice.  This guy did do some "polls" that have been spot on in the past.  He might be just a good poll aggregator that got lucky a few times.

[jaichind]

Final ABP C-Voter poll for Assam (no vote share)

              Seats   
NDA          68       
UPA           56       
Others        2       

No change from previous ABP C-Voter poll

Isn't it actually 69-56 in the final poll?

pbs.twimg.com /media/ExQxDnvVcAAGxh9?format=jpg&name=medium (sorry, can't post links yet)

Anyway, according to C-Voter, this is the view on CAA:

Do you think CAA is a threat to indigenous Assamese language and culture?

Yes: 50.9
No: 31.2
Can't Say 17.9

I am surprised NDA is still ahead if the local perception is that CAA is a threat. However, I am also reading some articles about how some communities vehemently opposed to CAA are still supporting BJP because of other factors.

Yeah.  Even Akhil Gogoi, leader of RD which is part of the anti-CAA AJP-RD alliance seems to be mostly running (from jail) on bread and butter issues like jobs etc etc.  I think most Assamese Hindus are anti-CAA but it might be #4 or #5 on their list of issues.

[jaichind]

Democracy Times Network poll on 5 states/UT.

This pollster has an anti-BJP lean.  If you ignore the anti-BJP lean of the poll and use the rule of thumb that pre-election polls overestimate the incumbent then these poll indicate that the ruling party/combine will be defeated in all 5 states/UT which in my mind is more and more becoming the most likely outcome.

If you take into account the anti-BJP lean then the scale of the defeat of the incumbent in WB and Puducherry are most likely underestimated.


TN - DMK-INC+ landslide

DMK-INC+       182
AIADMK-BJP+    51
AMMK+               1



Puducherry

NDA          19
UPA           11



Kerala - neck-to-neck with slight LDF lead

LDF          73
UDF         66
NDA          1



WB - narrow AITC lead over BJP

AITC                              149
BJP                                126
Left Front-INC-ISF            19



Assam - narrow UPA win over NDA - nearly identical to previous poll

UPA          65
NDA         60
Others       1 (I have to assume AJP-RD)

[jaichind]

Seat sharing maps of Assam

As mentioned before there are a bunch of AIUDF-INC,  UPPL-BJP, AGP-BJP "friendly fights" in seats allocated to INC and BJP.

NDA

BJP    92
AGP   26
UPPL   8

Orange - BJP
Yellow - UPPL - in Bodoland as expected
Light Blue - AGP - note that large number of unwinnable Lower Assam seats AGP got which speaks to the junior status of AGP.  BJP hogs most of the winnable Upper Assam seast



UPA

INC          94
AIUDF      14
BPF          12
CPI(M)       2
CPI            1
AGM          1
CPI(ML)L   1
RJD           1

Blue - INC
Red - Left parties
Orange - BPF - in Bodo areas as expected
Light Green - AIUDF - mostly in Muslim heavy non-Bodo Lower Assam and Barak Valley
Deep Green - RJD
Brown - AGM



URF (AJP-RD)

AJP     80
RD     19

Blue - AJP
Red - RD
Note that AJP-RD are not contesting Bodo and Muslim parts of Lower Assam, Barak valley and tribal areas and are focused in Assamese Hindu heavy areas in Lower Assam and especially Upper Assam

[Conservatopia]

You've stated a couple of times that pre-election polls favour tge incumbent.  Do you know why this is and to what extent the polls favour the incumbent typically.  Is it like +3-4% or much more?

[jaichind]

TN seat sharing map


AIADMK-BJP+

Green - AIADMK including a bunch of parties running in AIADMK symbol including TMC
Orange - BJP - BJP stronger in urban areas and Deep Southwest TN
Yellow - PMK - PMK stronger in Northern TN where Vanniyar are numerous 



DMK-INC+

Red - DMK including a bunch of parties running on DMK symbol including DMDK
Light Blue - INC - INC stronger in Southern TN

[jaichind]

You've stated a couple of times that pre-election polls favour tge incumbent.  Do you know why this is and to what extent the polls favour the incumbent typically.  Is it like +3-4% or much more?

The reason why this is the case is because
1) There is some fear of retribution if you let it out that you are going to vote against the ruling party, especially if the ruling party is not popular on the ground and are looking to lash out against those that are against them.
2) Approval ratings for CM are usually pretty high compared to advanced economies mostly due to the population not expecting as much from the government.  Given most people are OK with the CM, they naturally just say to the pollster they will vote for the ruling party.  When they get into the voting booth all sorts of community loyalties or other disfaction with live overall will drive some voters to vote for the opposition

As for how much this is hard to say.  You know only after the fact.  I would say if the ruling party is defeated the scale of defeat will be much greater than what the polls predict  (since 1) and 2) are in play.  If the ruling party wins then pre-election polls will overestimate the ruling party but it is usually not that much (since only 2) is most likely in play.)

Ergo my exit poll to results prediction algorithm has an entry on "if this is a defeat of the ruling party"

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

[jaichind]

Political art is very big in WB, especially around election time.  Here is a picture of a divide family that drew two separate pieces of political art on the same outside wall, one for BJP and one for AITC.