India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

I was just reading about these seats you mentioned. I don't think AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha. There is no mention of the AIUDF in the list of candidates. The sitting AIUDF MLA who had to give up the seat is certainly not running.

On the other hand, the three-time BJP candidate who narrowly finished second in 2016 is running as an independent. I think this seat is also favourable for UPA.

[eos]

Possibly. I looked at the list of candidates in affidavit. eci.gov.in/ and there is no mention of the AIUDF.

The date for withdrawal for the first phase was 12 March. The BJP rebel is still running.

nenow.in/ north-east-news/assam/assam-assembly-elections-bjp-votes-likely-to-split-in-naoboicha-constituency.html

Also, I read on twitter BJP has expelled 15 members who were denied party tickets and running, including the rebel in Naoboicha.  twitter.com/ atanubhuyan/status/1372541383127359489

That said, I agree with your overall point. BJP seems to be in pole position in Upper Assam, and HBS is a very capable politician. This will be a very interesting election.

[eos]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

[eos]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

Outside of Delhi and Punjab, AAP mostly appeal to high educated (and implicitly Upper Caste) voters that get their news from the English media although some vote INC.  This group is clearly very urban.  People in this category that mainly read non-English media tend to vote BJP.  This group is more rural.
 AAP is trying to break into high educated but non-English media voters from the BJP.  To do this some support of soft Hindu nationalism is necessary.  Frankly in many Northern states, especially BJP strongholds like MP and Gujarat,  INC plays the same game.  Now AAP does the same.

In the long run, AAP seems a greater threat to the INC, than the BJP. I wonder if AAP leaders have learned from 2019 and are mainly planning to replace the INC in north India.

[eos]

I agree that AAP is a threat to INC in the sense that BJP is and will continue to be the dominate party in India and there is only room for the leader of the main alternative.  Right now that is INC but clearly AAP want to try to take over that space.  Unless AAP can show that it can win in rural areas outside of Delhi and Punjab AAP will not be an contender.

The main immediate threat to INC is actually AITC.  If AITC wins by a good margin in WB AND INC does not win in Kerala and Assam, there is a good chance that all anti-BJP parties will consolidate around AITC as the leader of the anti-BJP alliance in 2024 LS elections.  This is sort of the reason why despite the fact that in WB AITC is the main alternative to BJP, INC does not ally with AITC but choose to ally with Left Front.  I think if AITC wins WB but INC wins Kerala and Assam, Rahul Gandhi should still be safe as the leader of INC and leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024.  If BJP wins both Assam and WB there is no point in being the leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024 since it will be another solid BJP win in 2024.

Is there any chance of the UPA forming a government in 2024 then? It seems so unlikely at this stage.

[eos]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.

Battleground seats are

I am quite surprised to see Kaliabor in a list of battleground seats. It has been a safe seat for the AGP in recent times. I wonder if they think the CAA is going to hurt the AGP here? I don't see how this is a close contest otherwise.

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat has released opinion polls for the coming election.

Assam

NDA 68-78

BJP - 54-61
AGP - 10-15
UPPL - 2-4 (?, this should be 4-4 if NDA's threshold is 68)

UPA 48-58

INC - 28-33
AIUDF - 12-15
BPF - 7-9
LEFT - 1-1

OTH - 0-0

NDA: 40.5

BJP - 31.5
AGP - 6.0
UPPL - 3.0

UPA: 42.5

INC: 28.0
AIUDF - 10.0
BPF - 4.0
LEFT - 0.5

OTH - 17.0

Thoughs? Jaan Ki Baat says the UPA will get more votes, but NDA will get more seats. The idea is that UPA will run up the margins in Lower Assam, but NDA will be more effective in winning seats, especially in Upper Assam.

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat has released opinion polls for the coming election.

Assam

NDA 68-78

BJP - 54-61
AGP - 10-15
UPPL - 2-4 (?, this should be 4-4 if NDA's threshold is 68)

UPA 48-58

INC - 28-33
AIUDF - 12-15
BPF - 7-9
LEFT - 1-1

OTH - 0-0

NDA: 40.5

BJP - 31.5
AGP - 6.0
UPPL - 3.0

UPA: 42.5

INC: 28.0
AIUDF - 10.0
BPF - 4.0
LEFT - 0.5

OTH - 17.0

Thoughs? Jaan Ki Baat says the UPA will get more votes, but NDA will get more seats. The idea is that UPA will run up the margins in Lower Assam, but NDA will be more effective in winning seats, especially in Upper Assam.

Yeah I was about to post that

Certainly this is possible.  This is, like you said, complete Muslim vote transfer in Lower Assam between INC and AIUDF and leading to a lot of wasted votes while BJP-AGP sweeps Upper Assam. BPF at 8 seats also indicate a sweep for UPA in Lower Assam which means NDA must have swept Upper Assam.

I do think Jan Ki Baat is hedging by having a UPA vote share lead but NDA seat share lead. Overall I think this poll is not positive for NDA.  To be behind vote share point of view at this stage seems to indicate a anti-incumbent surge.  If I were to just take the poll as is I would think UPA will win election day.

Agreed. I think Jan Ki Baat are too bullish on NDA's prospects in Upper Assam, and maybe Barak Valley.

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat WB poll has BJP narrowing winning on a near tie in vote share with AITC
                                 
                                 Seats    Vote Share
BJP                             155         44.8%
AITC                           127         44.1%
Left Front-INC-ISF         12            7.5%
 
For the BJP to be ahead before the election is very bad news for AITC and it seems now that BJP is in a good position to win in WB.  A total shock relative to where the BJP was in WB in 2011.

This is a massive leap for BJP even compared to where they were in 2016. One has to assume that the 2019 LS elections convinced all the anti-Trinamool voters to consolidate behind the BJP.

[eos]

Embarrassment for BJP in Assam.

pratidintime .com/beef-is-national-dish-of-india-gauripur-bjp-candidate/

In a surprising turn of events, BJP candidate from Assam’s Gauripur constituency, Banendra Kumar Mushahary, has claimed that beef is the “National Dish” of India.

“How can anyone try to ban beef? It is the National Dish of India,” he said while addressing an election meeting in a Muslim-dominated area.

He added that beef is an international dish and “educated Muslims in the rural areas of Assam should understand that no one can ban the sale of beef in Assam or anywhere in India.”

Notably, the BJP has always been campaigning for beef ban across the country. Mushahary’s statement greatly contradicts the party’s ideologies and principles.

Mushahary, a veteran politician, joined the BJP last year in December. He was first elected  to the Assam Legislative Assembly in 1996 as an independent candidate from Gauripur constituency in Dhubri district.

In 2011, he was elected as an AGP candidate from Gauripur. Later, he joined the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and was elected as an MLA for the third time.

Meanwhile, BJP workers in the districts have expressed serious concern on Mushahary’s remarks and demanded that he tender an apology.

Moreover, members of Purbanchal Hindu Aikya Mancha filed an FIR at Dispur police station and demanded actions against the BJP candidate for violating Model Code of Conduct which was enforced in February 26 in poll-bound Assam.

[eos]

Independent pollster Ankit Sharma final WB poll has BJP winning by a good margin

BJP                         160
AITC                       116
Left Front-INC-ISF     18


By region

BJP does the best in Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) and North Bengal.  Jangalmahal (or Southwest WB) has the least number of Muslims so a Hindu consolidation overcomes AITC edge with Muslims. North Bengal has the most number of Muslims but that just means all Hindus vote BJP while AITC and INC split the Muslim vote

I am not sure I would trust this guy.

twitter. com /AyushForIndia/status/1367057702455676936

[eos]

Final ABP C-Voter poll for Assam (no vote share)

              Seats   
NDA          68       
UPA           56       
Others        2       

No change from previous ABP C-Voter poll

Isn't it actually 69-56 in the final poll?

pbs.twimg.com /media/ExQxDnvVcAAGxh9?format=jpg&name=medium (sorry, can't post links yet)

Anyway, according to C-Voter, this is the view on CAA:

Do you think CAA is a threat to indigenous Assamese language and culture?

Yes: 50.9
No: 31.2
Can't Say 17.9

I am surprised NDA is still ahead if the local perception is that CAA is a threat. However, I am also reading some articles about how some communities vehemently opposed to CAA are still supporting BJP because of other factors.

[eos]

I think the split was 54-39 NDA vs INC in the 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam. If this is true, the NDA will be at 44. UPA needs only half of this reported swing to deny the NDA another chance at forming the government.

[eos]

I think the split was 54-39 NDA vs INC in the 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam. If this is true, the NDA will be at 44. UPA needs only half of this reported swing to deny the NDA another chance at forming the government.

Was the 2019 Upper Assam assembly segment 54-39 for NDA ? In 2019 Assam overall the assembly segment lead was

BJP      67
AGP     11
BPF       4
SGS      6
INC      26
AIUDF  12

Given these numbers I am pretty sure the NDA 2019 LS assembly segment lead in Upper Assam was much greater than 54-39 when INC and AIUDF together only led on 38 assembly segments out of all of Assam.  Also I think it depends on definition of Upper Assam but I do not think Upper Assam has as many as 94 assembly segments (54+39).

Sorry, I should have clarified I meant vote share.

In 2016, NDA won 35/47 seats being contested in phase 1, with 1 independent joining BJP later.

[eos]

In any case, I misremembered. The 2016 voteshare for the 47 seats from phase 1, 2021 was actually:

NDA - 44.96
INC - 35.85
AIUDF  - 5.62
OTHER - 13.56

[eos]

If there is a 10% swing in Upper Assam, the NDA is in serious trouble. Or did you mean 10% of the NDA total in 2016, i.e. 5%?

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

[eos]

In Upper Assam's LS districts, I include Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Tezpur, and Nowgong. Some parts of Nowgong, Kaliabor, and Tezpur might be considered part of Central Assam, but I have a very liberal definition.

In 2019, the BJP and INC got 3,962,513 and 3,148,648 votes out of 7,465,660. That's 53.1 vs 42.1. If you opt for a more restrictive definition and take only Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh and Jorhat, it would be BJP at 1,979,277 and INC at 1,181,507 out of 3,357,302. That's 58.9 vs 35.1.

If you meant a 10% voteshare drop in deep Upper Assam (Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, and Jorhat), the BJP would be around 49.

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

Can't some of the drop off be due to a BJP to INC swing? There are many Adivasi 'tea tribe' voters in Upper Assam. They are traditional INC voters who became pro-BJP in 2014.

[eos]

According to some independent pollsters on twitter, the INC+Left over-performed in the first phase of the Bengal elections. They say this is going to cost the BJP, who expected to take the anti-TMC vote and sweep in the first phase.

The seats up for grabs https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi

[eos]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

Would a TMC defeat in West Bengal be a positive development for UPA in 2024?

[eos]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

Would a TMC defeat in West Bengal be a positive development for UPA in 2024?

My scenario is pretty close to an ideal scenario for Rahul Gandhi.  Only thing better is if Left Front-INC hold the balance of power between AITC and BJP.  All things equal my scenario would most likely mean Rahul Gandhi returns to Prez of INC and assuming INC performs reasonably well in the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections Rahul Gandhi will be leading the anti-BJP forces in 2024.  I still think NDA will win in 2024 but perhaps UPA does well enough to make 2029 a real race.

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

[eos]

The Jagan Mohan debacle seems absolutely ridiculous. Why were INC so against giving him the opportunity to succeed his father? Worried about creating a local dynasty?

Also, don't discount the damage done to the INC brand by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal's anti-corruption movement. It greatly benefited the BJP, who were able to highlight corruption scandals without seeming partisan. Lastly, Rahul Gandhi's brand took a severe damage in the 2 years leading up to the 2014 election. BJP's so-called IT cell popularised the term "pappu", meaning 'small boy', to delegitimise him nationally. Before that, I remember Rahul Gandhi had a fairly popular brand, and used to be credited with UPA's success in 2009.

[eos]

Very informative thread. I am originally from one of the Southern states (Andhra) which used to be the best state for INC/UPA when they were in power in 2000's..it was the state where INC won their highest number of MP seats in that decade but now they are totally decimated in my home state. INC's decision to divide Andhra in 2013 (which led to formation of new state - Telengana) backfired so terribly that they are struggling to win even a single MLA seat in Andhra currently. Almost all the leaders have left the party and it's kinda become a joke in Andhra now. They went from 29 seats in Andhra alone in 2009 to now 2 seats in both Andhra & Telengana combined (0 in Andhra and 2 in Telengana). I just don't see them making a come back in Andhra in near future. Their only hope is to atleast get Jagan (leader and CM of current ruling party in Andhra) to join UPA but chances of that happening is slim as Jagan will forever be extremely pissed about how Gandhis treated him during early 2010's after his father's death.

Well, today's friends can become tomorrow's enemies, and vice versa. It was strange seeing INC allying with JDS in Karnataka, and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Jagan Reddy doesn't need the INC now, but I can see him joining the UPA if it can benefit him politically. On the other hand, I can also see him helping NDA if they fall short of a majority in 2024.

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

Can't some of the drop off be due to a BJP to INC swing? There are many Adivasi 'tea tribe' voters in Upper Assam. They are traditional INC voters who became pro-BJP in 2014.

Totally possible.  And if true then BJP might have lost the election already.

I am certain UPA won these phase 1 seats: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani, Lakhimpur, and Titabar. 80% sure INC won in Nazira and Amguri. INC also has a 50-50 chance in another 20 seats, such as Barchalla, Tezpur, Rangapara, Sootea, Gohpur, Golaghat, Dergaon, Jorhat, Teok, Thowra, Sibsagar, Bihpuria, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Moran, Duliajan, Naharkatia, Doom Dooma, Sadiya.

For the 50-50 seats, I think there are three factors necessary for an INC win, depending on the seat in question.

(1) Consolidation of INC-AIUDF-Left vote
(2) AJP-RD taking the traditionally regionalist AGP votes due to CAA, rather than from INC
(3) Return of some Adivasi tea tribe voters to INC

Many of the 50-50 seats are leaning NDA, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC lose most of these. However, I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC win in some of these either.

At the moment, 37/47 seems to be on the optimistic side for the BJP/NDA. If they can't get at least 37 , they will need to perform extremely well in phase 2 and 3. However, every opinion poll so far points to UPA winning 45-55 from phase 2 and 3. I think UPA will win more than 50, as much as 55. As long as UPA wins the 10 probable seats I mentioned above, they are within touching grounds of forming the government.