India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll for Assam

              Seats    Vote share
NDA          68         45.0%
UPA           56         42.2%
Others        2          12.8%




Which is a swing toward UPA since the same poll in late Feb which did not have BPF joining up with UPA.

A poll result like this seem to indicate that UPA does have a solid shot at winning.

ABP C-Voter poll for Assam back in late Feb

ABP poll in Assam

              Seats    Vote share
NDA          72         43.8%
UPA           47        41.4%
BPF             4          1.1%
Others         3       13.3%



Of course latest news already make the poll obsolete with BPF and RJD joining INC-AIUDF-Left-AGM alliance.

http://www.millenniumpost.in/nation/cong-led-grand-alliance-expanded-in-assam-with-inclusion-of-bpf-rjd-433003

"Cong-led Grand Alliance expanded in Assam with inclusion of BPF, RJD"

BPF was expected to join AJD-RD alliance but last minute decided to join up with INC-AIUDF front.  The battle in Bodoland of BPF-INC-AIUDF vs UPPL-BJP-GSP will be epic !!!  RJD coming aboard should help INC-AIUDF to pull in Non-Assamese Hindu voters.  All this will only work for INC if they can get past their own factional bickering and ego and allocate the right seats to BPF RJD and other allies to take the most advantage of the local demographic patterns.  

The UPA seat sharing plan has to be, by seat type:

Assamese Hindus and Muslims - INC
Bengali Hindus - INC (although BJP will most likely sweep here)
Non-Assamese Muslims - AIUDF
Tribals - Left
Bodo - BPF
Hindi Hindus - RJD

to have a chance to stop the BJP juggernaut.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll on Kerala

          Seats    Vote share
LDF       81           42.9%
UDF      58            37.9%
NDA       1            14.6%
Ohers     0              4.6%




UDF gained ground from the same poll in late Feb.  The poll also fixed up the "bug" I pointed out from their late Feb poll where Others vote share was too high.

Just like the WB poll, ABP C-Voter is hedging.  A vote share lead of around 5% should see LDF with around 90 seats and not 81.  I still feel that this poll is too positive on LDF chances.  I still see the UDF as a slight favorite to win.

ABP C-Voter poll from late Feb

ABP Kerala poll

          Seats    Vote share
LDF       87            40%
UDF      51            33%
NDA       1            13%
Ohers     1            15%




Again, I am skeptical.  Given the strong 3 way polarization in Kerala there is no way "Others" can win 15% of the vote.  5% tops in my view and more like 3%.  I suspect this poll has a lot of "hidden" UDF voters and that this race is neck-to-neck if not advantage UDF.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll on TN

                        Seat    Vote share
DMK-INC+          165         43.7%
AIADMK-BJP+       57         30.6%
MNM                     4           7.0%
AMMK                   3           6.4%
Others                  5         12.3%




DMK+ gained ground from late Feb in terms of seats.  The poll does not take into account, I suspect, the new AMMK-DMDK alliance.  My comment is the same as last time.  In TN a 13% vote share lead would translate into a seat count of 200 or even more for DMK+ and not 165.  Just like WB and Kerala ABP C-Voter is hedging.

I suspect suspect Others vote share is overestimated.

Late Feb ABP C-Voter poll

ABP poll for TN

                        Seat    Vote share
DMK-INC+          158         41.0%
AIADMK-BJP+       62         28.6%
MNM                     4           8.3%
AMMK                   3           6.9%
Others                  7         14.8%




I am skeptical of this poll.  Most seats in TN tend to swing together so a 12%+ vote share lead by UPA over NDA should produce a seat landslide of massive proportions with UPA getting close to 200 seats.  Also given the polarization between DMK and AIADMK I am not sure who outside of MNM and AMMK can win 7 seats.

[jaichind]

ABP C-voter poll for Puducherry

              
          Seats        Vote share
NDA      18                45.5%
UPA       12                40.7%
Others     0                13.9%

The graphics have typo and UPA should be 10-14 and not 0-14.

It seems UPA vote share have gone up but not seat projection since last poll in late Feb.

I am surprised at this.  I agree that a 5% vote share gap could mean that UPA could cross 10 seats.  I just find it hard to believe.  With BJP taking part of the INC vote base through defections of local INC kingpins PLUS AINRC PLUS AIADMK PLUS anti-incumbency INC-DMK would be lucky to get 5 seats.

ABP C-Voter poll from late Feb.

ABP Puducherry poll has

          Seats        Vote share
NDA      19                46%
UPA       10                33%
Others     1

I am pretty sure if the seat share gap between the two fronts are 13% the NDA will completely sweep the polls with UPA having less than 5 seats.  I suspect that is where we are headed.

[jaichind]

Noida (Western UP, part of Greater Delhi) based Hindi channel have polls that has NDA being beaten in all 5 states.  This channel has a pro-NDA owner but it seems their polls overcompensates for house effect and are mostly too negative on BJP.   In 2019 LS they predicted a defeat for BJP in UP but it turned out to be a BJP landslide.

WB
AITC                      181
BJP                         77
Left Front-INC-ISF    25

Assam
UPA                        68
NDA                       57
Others                     1

TN
UPA                      162
NDA                       63
MNM                        3
Others                     2

Kerala
LDF                        76
UDF                       61
NDA                        3
Others                     0

Puducherry
UPA                       16
NDA                       10
Others                     4

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/west-bengal/west-bengal-polls-bjp-supporters-continue-protests-over-partys-candidate-selection/articleshow/81529174.cms

"West Bengal polls: BJP supporters continue protests over party's candidate selection"

Even though a lot of AITC defectors to BJP did not get nominated to run on BJP ticket, enough of them made it to provoke protests by BJP workers in various districts.  These protests are continuing into a second and third days. 

All in all not sure this is a sign of problems for BJP.  In 2016 Assam when BJP took on AGP as an ally to ensure defeat of INC the local BJP workers also protested in some districts.  Eventually most of them fell back in line and various BJP rebels that ran in protest went nowhere in the election and failed to stop BJP-AGP-BPF from winning.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/16/forward-bloc-wont-contest-against-pinarayi-says-face-off-will-weaken-national-anti-fascist-front-2277294.html

"Forward Bloc won't contest against Pinarayi Vijayan, says face-off will weaken national anti-fascist front"

AIFB returns seat to INC in Kerala as it was not satisfied with the seat they were allocated.  AIFB will support UDF but will not contest.  So seat sharing for UDF in Kerala is now

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/congress-takes-back-malampuzha-seat-2276345.html

"Congress takes back Malampuzha seat"

In the end after local INC protests and BNJD saying they were not interested in running in Malampuzha, INC took back Malampuzha from BNJD in terms of seat allocation.

As a result the new Kerala UDF seat distribution are

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
AIFB                                1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/protests-by-cpm-cadres-force-kc-m-to-return-kuttiyadi-seat-2276534.html

"Protests by CPM cadres force KC (M) to return Kuttiyadi seat"

KEC(M) returns a seat to CPM after protests by CPM cadres in said seat.  So seat sharing of LDF in Kerala is now

CPM                              86 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     12
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)

LDF seat distribution

CPM                              85 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
 
As usual CPM ran a bunch of pro-CPM independents in seats allocated to it.  They are usually in heavy Christian and Muslim seats  where the CPM brand is not so hot.

[jaichind]

The entire premise of LDF having a good chance to win in Kerala despite the tradition of UDF and LDF flipping every election is the defection of KEC(Mani) from UDF to LDF.  But one thing one has to take into account is that KEC(Joseph) split from KEC(Mani) and looking at which party 2016 KEC(Mani) candidates choose to join, a greater part of the old KEC(Mani) base went over to KEC(Joseph).  The seat allocation also has CPM giving a couple of its winnable seats over to KEC(Mani) to bribe them as part of the deal for KEC(Mani) to come over to LDF.

I did a back of envelope calculation of how the 23 seats where various KEC factions have influence to see how they might shift by making an assumption of a swing from LDF to UDF but with KEC(Mani) taking over some of their vote based with them to LDF with bonus for 2016 KEC(Mani) incumbents being able to hold on to the 2016 KEC(Mani) vote.

In these 23 seats the 2016 results were
                   
                                 Contest         Win
UDF                           23             10
KEC(M)                          15              6
INC                                 7              3
KEC(Jacob)                      1              1

                                Contest         Win
LDF                           23            12
CPM                              11              9
JKC                                4               0
CPI                                 2              0
NCP                                2              1
JD(S)                              1              1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1              1
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        1              0
pro-CPM Ind                    1              0

KJ(S) also wins a seat


I expect 2021 results in these 23 seats to be

                                 Contest         Win
UDF                           23             12
KEC(Joseph)                   10              6
INC                               10              4
KEC(Jacob)                      1              1
NCK                                1              0
IMUL                               1              1

                                Contest         Win
LDF                           23            11
KEC(Mani)                     12              5
CPM                                7              5
JKC                                1               0
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1               1
JD(S)                              1              0
NCP                                1              0
 
One person party PC George KJ(S) most likely lose his seat that he won in 2016 to INC. Several seats will be very close and there is more upside for KEC(Joseph). 

So UDF will end up gaining 2 seats out of this block of seats which means UDF will need to gain a least another 22 seats out of the other 117 seats which will not be easy but still doable.   Either way it seems the KEC(Mani) split into KEC(Mani) and KEC(Joseph) actually allowed both factions to bargain for more winnable seats from both blocs in hopes that the KEC faction each alliance backed can keep and win more of the old 2016 KEC(Mani) vote allowing them to win 5 and 6 seats respectively whereas in 2016 the united party only won 6 seats.

My back of the envelope analysis seems to indicate that the split of KEC(Mani) damages UDF chances but is not fatal.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/pc-thomas-led-kerala-congress-quits-nda-to-merge-with-joseph-faction-121031700422_1.html

"PC Thomas-led Kerala Congress quits NDA, to merge with Joseph faction"

Latest news on Kerala KEC faction saga.  KEC(Thomas), not happy with their seat allocation, decides to quite NDA and merge into UDF KEC(Joseph).  The fact that KEC(Thomas) merged with KEC(Joseph) versus KEC(Mani) speaks to which of the two factions must have greater electoral strength.

[jaichind]

Shining India Opinion Poll for WB

AITC                      168
BJP                         89
Left Front-INC-ISF    35
Others                      2

This poll has a fairly strong result for Left Front-INC-ISF compared to other polls

[jaichind]

Shining India Opinion Poll poll for Assam has it neck-to-neck

            Seats     Vote share
NDA       62            41.6%
UPA       59             40.8%
Others     5             11.4%

I assume most of Others at 5 seats will be AJP-RD which makes this poll pretty positive about their prospects when compared to other polls. A poll like this which has it neck-to-neck is very bad news for BJP and most likely herald defeat.

[jaichind]

Asianer-CFore Opinion polls for Puducherry:

          Seat   Vote Share
NDA      25        52%
UPA        5        36%
Others    0        12%

This more matches what I think the state of the race is most likely to be at.

[jaichind]

In Assam the final seat sharing arrangement is

INC         94
AIUDF     14
BPF         12
CPM          2
CPI           1
CPI(ML)    1
AGM         1
RJD          1

Due to protest from INC base in many seats the quota for AIUDF was reduced to 14.  But AIUDF was "allowed" to run in 7 other seats given to INC in a friendly fight.  So AIUDF will run in 21 seats with 14 as part of the tactical alliance with UPA.

The 7 seats and 2016 results are

Abhayapuri South
AIUDF         32.5
INC             32.4
AGP             32.1


Naoboicha
AIUDF          34.5
BJP              33.8
INC              20.9
AGP               5.0  ("friendly fight" with BJP)


Goalpara West
INC             44.8
AIUDF         26.9
BJP             23.8
AGP              0.8  ("friendly fight" with BJP)


Karimganj South
AIUDF        45.2
INC            41.8
BJP              9.2

Sarukhetri
INC             45.3
AGP            29.6
AIUDF         13.9


Jaleswar
AIUDF         43.9
INC rebel     38.6
BJP               9.0
INC              5.1


Dalgaon
INC            42.8
AIUDF        41.5
AGP           13.8


It seems Naoboicha there is a good chance a lack of a INC-AIUDF alliance will cost it a seat but the other 6 should be faily safe that either INC or AIUDF will win.

All in all this tactical alliance between INC and AIUDF is mostly positive at the mathematical level.  Main risk is that it will provoke Hindu consolidation, mostly in Upper Assam, toward the BJP-AGP combine while AIUDF is weak there and its vote base transfer to INC will not make up for the loss of Hindu votes there from INC to BJP-AGP.  Additional risk is the likelihood of AIUDF rebels given how low the AIUDF quota became.

[eos]

I was just reading about these seats you mentioned. I don't think AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha. There is no mention of the AIUDF in the list of candidates. The sitting AIUDF MLA who had to give up the seat is certainly not running.

On the other hand, the three-time BJP candidate who narrowly finished second in 2016 is running as an independent. I think this seat is also favourable for UPA.

[jaichind]

I was just reading about these seats you mentioned. I don't think AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha. There is no mention of the AIUDF in the list of candidates. The sitting AIUDF MLA who had to give up the seat is certainly not running.

On the other hand, the three-time BJP candidate who narrowly finished second in 2016 is running as an independent. I think this seat is also favourable for UPA.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/keyed-up-newly-formed-audf-makes-congress-aiudf-alliance-lose-sleep-ahead-of-assam-polls-3544784.html

"Keyed Up? Newly Formed AUDF Makes Congress-AIUDF Alliance Lose Sleep Ahead of Assam Polls"

Says that AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha.  It could be INC later on convinced AIUDF to withdraw the candidacy.  The system does allow for withdrawals so it could be that took place and I missed it. 

I did not know about the BJP rebel here.  If that is the case then that certainly hurt BJP.  I  guess my point is do not underestimate BJP trouble shooter Himanta Biswa Sarma ability to come in and get BJP rebels to stand down.  Himanta Biswa Sarma is playing a much bigger role in this election that expected.    I suspect the BJP have concluded that if they run Sarbananda Sonowal as their CM candidate most likely they will lose.  So they leave it open and see if  Himanta Biswa Sarma can come in and win it for NDA.  If he does them they might reward him with the CM post.  Being explicitly about this would be bad as that would provoke a negative reaction from Sarbananda Sonowal and his partisans.

[eos]

Possibly. I looked at the list of candidates in affidavit. eci.gov.in/ and there is no mention of the AIUDF.

The date for withdrawal for the first phase was 12 March. The BJP rebel is still running.

nenow.in/ north-east-news/assam/assam-assembly-elections-bjp-votes-likely-to-split-in-naoboicha-constituency.html

Also, I read on twitter BJP has expelled 15 members who were denied party tickets and running, including the rebel in Naoboicha.  twitter.com/ atanubhuyan/status/1372541383127359489

That said, I agree with your overall point. BJP seems to be in pole position in Upper Assam, and HBS is a very capable politician. This will be a very interesting election.

[jaichind]

ABP C-voter came out with polls for UP and Uttarakhand both of which goes to the polls next year.

UP
            Seats   Vote Share
BJP        289         41%
SP           59         24%
BSP         38         21%
INC           4           6%
Others     13           8%

which is very similar to 2017 results with a small growth in the vote share for SP and BSP.  SP gains less in terms of seats due to not having a tactical alliance with INC unlike 2017.  BSP vote share gain is a surprise as the CW is that the BSP is on the decline for a while now.  I think BJP should win as long as SP and BSP are split but I am sure they will win by a smaller margin of victory in terms of seats




Uttarakhand
 
           Seats  Vote Share
BJP        27        38.3%
INC       35         40.8%
AAP         5          9.2%
BSP         3          4.2%
Others     0          7.5%

For the BJP to be behind at this stage is VERY BAD news for the BJP.  The AAP surge is also interesting.   Uttarakhand is very Upper Caste heavy and AAP's vote share showing they are now eating into rural Upper Caste centrist-liberal votes and not just urban Upper Caste centrist-liberal votes.  These votes are traditional BJP-INC swing voters but now AAP is in there to compete for those votes.

[eos]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

[jaichind]

Possibly. I looked at the list of candidates in affidavit. eci.gov.in/ and there is no mention of the AIUDF.

The date for withdrawal for the first phase was 12 March. The BJP rebel is still running.

nenow.in/ north-east-news/assam/assam-assembly-elections-bjp-votes-likely-to-split-in-naoboicha-constituency.html

Also, I read on twitter BJP has expelled 15 members who were denied party tickets and running, including the rebel in Naoboicha.  twitter.com/ atanubhuyan/status/1372541383127359489

That said, I agree with your overall point. BJP seems to be in pole position in Upper Assam, and HBS is a very capable politician. This will be a very interesting election.

How interesting.  If so then the INC played a good game here.  If there was one seat at risk for INC and AIUDF to run separately  it would be Naoboicha.  If INC got AIUDF to stand down there then INC-AIUDF formed alliances (mostly in Lower Assam) should be seen as efficient in the sense that they will not split votes where it matters.

Clearly  Himanta Biswa Sarma is out for blood.  He defected from INC to BJP in 2015 mostly because he sense that Tarun Gogoi was going to promote his own son over him to take over INC in Assam.  So his go is to become CM.  BJP is trying to give him other roles to make up for not giving it to him but this time he seems determined to maneuver himself to get the role.  If NDA wins in Assam it might be popcorn time to see how BJP handles the Assam CM position problem.  But BJP is right, win first by pushing Modi as the face, worry about CM later.

As for BJP rebels, INC is just as bad if not worse.  Back in 2016 both BJP and AGP had tons of rebels objecting to their alliance and in the end did not stop their landslide victory.  This time around it will be closer so it might make a difference.

[jaichind]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

Outside of Delhi and Punjab, AAP mostly appeal to high educated (and implicitly Upper Caste) voters that get their news from the English media although some vote INC.  This group is clearly very urban.  People in this category that mainly read non-English media tend to vote BJP.  This group is more rural.
 AAP is trying to break into high educated but non-English media voters from the BJP.  To do this some support of soft Hindu nationalism is necessary.  Frankly in many Northern states, especially BJP strongholds like MP and Gujarat,  INC plays the same game.  Now AAP does the same.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/west-bengal-assembly-election/west-bengal-election-setback-for-bjp-as-2-leaders-refuse-offer-to-contest-101616075570784.html

"West Bengal election: Setback for BJP as 2 leaders refuse offer to contest"

Two BJP candidates refused to contest.  One of them is the husband of the current AITC MLA that did not get re-nominated and the other is the wife of a late INC leader of the district.  Both claim they were not consulted and did not agree to run for BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/income-for-all-free-ration-delivery-in-tmc-manifesto-101616004730047.html

"Income for all, free ration delivery in TMC manifesto"

In WB the AITC manifesto promises universal basic income of around $100 a year for each family and $200 a year for Dalits, tribal and backward castes (groups she need to woo back from the BJP).  BJP made a similar promise in their manifesto.  She also promised to expand the definition of backward caste to include more in the school admissions and goverment jobs quota systems.  Unlike 2016 when AITC made a big push for Muslim votes, this time it seems AITC assumes is will get Muslim votes and is making a pitch for Dalits tribal and backward castes.

[jaichind]

CSDS chart on AITC gender gap over the years.   The basic idea is that if women turnout is high it helps AITC.

[jaichind]

Shining India Survey on TN.  No seat projections only vote share

DMK+          40.3%
AIADMK+     34..6%
MNM             6.2%
AMMK+         5.1%
Others          6.4%
Do not know  7.4%

Note sure if this poll takes into account AMMK-DMDK alliance which I would imagine would add 2% to AMMK+'s total if it did not.  The DMK+ AIADMK+ vote share gap is smaller in this poll than other polls.

I would say if the vote share gap is around 6% between DMK+ and AIADMK+ the seat breakdown should be around DMK+ ~160 AIADMK ~60