Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

More PR->district vote analysis where KP is running

大阪(Osaka) 6th where it was

KP             54.82%
CDP           30.36%
JRP rebel   14.82%

The PR vote was

LDP            18.21%   
KP              18.87%   
PNHK            1.11%   
JRP             40.68%   
DPP              2.17%   
CDP              8.24%   
RS                2.81%   
SDP              0.87%   
JCP               7.03%

The number of PR voters that did not vote in the district vote is not as high as Osaka 3rd and 5th but significant enough to take them into account.  Using regression on the sub-districts  I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table

                   KP       CDP      JRP rebel    DNV
LDP             65%     20%        10%         5%
KP               95%       5%
PNHK          45%      30%         5%         5% 
JRP              50%     15%        25%       10%
DPP             20%      65%       10%         5%
CDP               5%     85%        10%
RS                 5%     80%          5%       10%
SDP               5%     80%          5%       10%
JCP                          90%         5%          5%

KP outperformed by holding on to 65% of the LDP vote and winning the JRP vote 50-15 over CDP.  It seems the JRP rebel ate into the JRP PR vote that would have otherwise gone to CDP.  The CDP candidate quality is high and CDP was able to hold on to the DPP RS and JCP PR vote but underperformed due to its poor showing with the JRP PR vote.  This is a clear example of the JRP PR vote turned off from CDP due to the CDP-JCP alliance.  The JRP rebel seems to be able to capture small peices of votes from all areas and not just the JRP PR vote base.

[jaichind]

More PR->district vote analysis where KP is running.  Last of the 4 KP seats in Osaka

大阪(Osaka) 16th where it was

KP             50.81%
CDP           43.61%
PNHK          5.58%

The PR vote was

LDP            20.97%   
KP              15.79%   
PNHK           1.09%   
JRP             37.86%   
DPP              2.24%   
CDP            10.86%   
RS                2.54%   
SDP              0.83%   
JCP               7.83%

The number of PR voters that did not vote in the district vote is not as high as Osaka 3rd and 5th but significant enough to take them into account.  Using regression on the sub-districts  I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table

                   KP       CDP        PNHK       DNV
LDP             65%     20%        10%         5%
KP               95%       5%
PNHK             5%                    90%         5%
JRP              45%     40%          5%       10%
DPP             30%      65%         5%         
CDP             15%     85%         
RS                 5%     85%          5%         5%
SDP               5%     75%         10%         5%
JCP                          90%                      10%

Very similar breakdown to the 6th district except for the fact that there is no JPR rebel to eat up JRP PR votes that would have gone to CDP.    CDP did not underperform with JRP PR and fought KP to lose the JRP PR vote 45-40.  CDP also got 20% of the LDP vote which is similar to the 6th district.  Overall CDP matched expectations while KP failed to overperform with the JRP PR vote to make up for losses to CDP in the LDP PR vote.  In the meantime, PNHK ate into the KP vote with LDP and JRP PR votes and undeformed a bit.  The CDP is a high-quality candidate and was able to hold on to the DPP RS and JCP PR votes.  In the end, KP's structure advantage was too high and the CDP candidate need to outperform with the JRP PR vote to win and failed to do so.

[jaichind]

We can use the regression analysis to look into the unexpected defeat of Ozawa in the 岩手(Iwate) 3rd.  The result was

LDP          52.05%
CDP          47.95% (Ozawa)

The PR vote was

LDP          32.10%   
KP             8.98%   
PNHK         1.48%   
JRP            4.79%   
DPP           5.60%   
CDP          30.87%   
RS             3.93%   
SDP           4.09%   
JCP            8.17%

Unlike the KP in Osaka seats, there were more votes in the district vote than PR so we also have to regress on the PR DNV.    Also, I took one small village where the LDP candidate was from out of the regression since it was clear that this small village voted in an outsized way for the LDP candidate beyond its partisan lean.  It does not matter that much since it is a small village and the LDP candidate most likely netted 500 more votes than he deserved based on partisan lean.

Using regression on the sub-districts  I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table including PR DNV

                  LDP      CDP       
LDP            100%       
KP              100%
PNHK            10%    90%
JRP               60%    40%
DPP              45%    55%
CDP                       100%
RS                65%    35%
SDP              70%    30%
JCP                 5%    95%
DNV                5%    95%

The result is very interesting.  We had extreme polarization with respect to LDP KP CDP and JCP with almost straight-ticket voting with these parties.    The pure personality vote (people that did not vote PR but voted on the district vote) leaned heavily for Ozawa.  What sunk Ozawa was the DPP RS and SDP vote was split evenly or even leaned LDP when they were expected to split in favor of Ozawa.  Worse for Ozawa these 3 parties actually had a significant vote in the district which made all the difference in the world for Ozawa. 

Given the candidate quality of Ozawa one would expect him to eat into LDP KP and JRP PR votes. Instead, LDP KP voted close to 100-0 for the LDP candidate and JRP split 60-40 in favor of LDP.  This Ozawa underperformance PLUS the impact defection of DPP RS and SDP PR vote seems to have led to his defeat. 

The question would be why would such defections take place.  I suspect that the RS and SDP PR votes in this district are the center-Left youth who most likely had enough of Ozawa who they now see as just out of touch with what their lives are like and defected to LDP.

[xelas81]

We can use the regression analysis to look into the unexpected defeat of Ozawa in the 岩手(Iwate) 3rd.  The result was

LDP          52.05%
CDP          47.95% (Ozawa)

The PR vote was

LDP          32.10%   
KP             8.98%   
PNHK         1.48%   
JRP            4.79%   
DPP           5.60%   
CDP          30.87%   
RS             3.93%   
SDP           4.09%   
JCP            8.17%

Unlike the KP in Osaka seats, there were more votes in the district vote than PR so we also have to regress on the PR DNV.    Also, I took one small village where the LDP candidate was from out of the regression since it was clear that this small village voted in an outsized way for the LDP candidate beyond its partisan lean.  It does not matter that much since it is a small village and the LDP candidate most likely netted 500 more votes than he deserved based on partisan lean.

Using regression on the sub-districts  I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table including PR DNV

                  LDP      CDP       
LDP            100%       
KP              100%
PNHK            10%    90%
JRP               60%    40%
DPP              45%    55%
CDP                       100%
RS                65%    35%
SDP              70%    30%
JCP                 5%    95%
DNV                5%    95%

The result is very interesting.  We had extreme polarization with respect to LDP KP CDP and JCP with almost straight-ticket voting with these parties.    The pure personality vote (people that did not vote PR but voted on the district vote) leaned heavily for Ozawa.  What sunk Ozawa was the DPP RS and SDP vote was split evenly or even leaned LDP when they were expected to split in favor of Ozawa.  Worse for Ozawa these 3 parties actually had a significant vote in the district which made all the difference in the world for Ozawa. 

Given the candidate quality of Ozawa one would expect him to eat into LDP KP and JRP PR votes. Instead, LDP KP voted close to 100-0 for the LDP candidate and JRP split 60-40 in favor of LDP.  This Ozawa underperformance PLUS the impact defection of DPP RS and SDP PR vote seems to have led to his defeat. 

The question would be why would such defections take place.  I suspect that the RS and SDP PR votes in this district are the center-Left youth who most likely had enough of Ozawa who they now see as just out of touch with what their lives are like and defected to LDP.

The LDP candidate, Takashi Fujiwara, is 38 years old and have been MP since 2012 (running against Ozawa and being elected by PR until winning outright this year)

[jaichind]

So far it seems 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) MP from 京都(Kyoto) 3rd seems to be the frontrunner to leader CDP in a 4 person race.

Others in the race are 逢坂誠二(Ōsaka Seiji) from 北海道(Hokkaido) 8th, 西村 智奈美(Nishimura Chinami) from 新潟(Niigata) 1st and 小川 淳也(Ogawa Jun'ya) from 香川(Kagawa) 1st.

Looking at my PR-based vote share model all 4 of them ran way ahead (all of them around 10%) of the "fair value" vote share which means all 4 have a strong personal vote.

[jaichind]

Looking at the results in detail it seems LDP really underperformed across the board in 京都(Kyoto) which is rare because they overperformed pretty much everywhere else.  I did the PR vote to district vote map analysis and conclude that part of this is due to the nature of the anti-LDP candidates but overall unlike other districts the JRP and DPP vote were determined to tactically vote against the LDP plus LDP's own base defected which was not present in other prefectures.  

First up is 京都(Kyoto) 4th where a pro-DPP independent unexpectedly defeated the LDP incumbent by a wide margin.  

pro-DPP     44.2%
LDP           37.1%
JCP           18.7%

The PR vote was

LDP    29.59%   
KP      10.35%   
PNHK    1.22%   
JRP     23.10%   
DPP      4.43%   
CDP    12.40%   
RS        3.88%   
SDP      1.15%   
JCP     13.89%

A regression analysis was able to map the PR vote to the district vote.

            pro-DPP      LDP        JCP
LDP            40%      60%
KP                         100%
PNHK         70%       15%      15%
JRP            75%       25%
DPP            80%      15%       5%
CDP           45%         5%     55%
RS             60%       10%     30%
SDP           10%       15%     75%
JCP            10%       10%     80%

The pro-DPP independent have fairly right-wing views on foreign policy so he lost a good chunk of the CDP vote to JCP but more than gained by a bunch of LDP defections.  The KP vote loyally voted LDP.  The 10% of the JCP vote tactically voted for the pro-DPP independent and LDP candidate respectively.  What was key in addition to the LDP defection was that the JRP went heavy for the pro-DPP independent.  

Part of the reason why LDP underperformed here could be due to the foreign policy right-wing views of the pro-DPP independent.  But looking at  京都(Kyoto) 3rd the main anti-LDP candidate was a more mainstream CDP candidate (who is  泉健太(Izumi Kenta) and the current frontrunner of for the leadership of CDP.)    

CDP           48.2%
LDP           33.3%
JRP            18.5%

The PR vote was


LDP          26.83%   
KP            10.65%   
PNHK          1.27%   
JRP           24.19%   
DPP            4.07%   
CDP          15.88%   
RS              3.43%   
SDP           1.11%   
JCP           12.57%

A regression analysis was able to map the PR vote to the district vote.

             CDP         LDP        JRP
LDP         30%        70%
KP            5%         90%       5%
PNHK      85%          5%      10%
JRP         25%          5%      70%
DPP        90%        10%
CDP        90%          5%        5%
RS          75%         15%      10%
SDP        95%           5%
JCP         95%           5%

Here, despite a more mainstream CDP candidate running he still got a good chunk of the LDP vote.  In addition, he was able to capture a good chunk of the JRP vote despite a JRP candidate in the fray. Also the DPP SDP and JCP all solidly voted CDP to beat out LDP.

The conclusion is that the policy positions of the anti-LDP do matter but the mood of the prefecture seems to matter more.  The mood of the prefecture seems to be either anti-JCP (JRP and DPP break for LDP while LDP vote defect less than expected) OR anti-LDP (JRP DPP break against LDP and the LDPD vote defects when the opposition produces a good candidate.)

Overall 京都(Kyoto) and 長崎(Nagasaki) clearly have an anti-LDP mood while 東京(Tokyo) and 北海道   (Hokkaido) clearly have an anti-JCP mood.

[jaichind]

 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) MP from 京都(Kyoto) 3rd wins CDP leadership race where MPs, nominated candidates for the 2022 Upper House elections (6 of them), prefecture assembly MLAs, and party members could vote in a 4-way race.

First round




Second round



Similar to the LDP Prez contest in the second round the MLAs and party members could note vote (mostly for logistical reasons) and only the MP and 2022 Upper House candidate could vote along with a vote per prefecture lead from the first round.

Note that 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) has a DPP background and joined CDP last year when the mainstream DPP merged into CDP.  This does make it easier for him to work out deals with DPP in the 2022 Upper House elections but makes it harder for alliance talks with JCP.  It does seem that 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) does support seat adjustments with JCP for next year's election.

[jaichind]

To continue the look at 京都(Kyoto) seats it also makes sense to look at 京都(Kyoto) 1st which is the only 京都(Kyoto) district where the LDP outperformed.  This seat was one of few seats where the JCP had a chance at winning.  In the end, LDP was able to beat back the JCP.

The result was

LDP           40.4%
JCP            30.5%
JRP            29.1%

The PR vote was

LDP           28.36%   
KP              7.90%   
PNHK          1.35%   
JRP           25.26%   
DPP            4.79%   
CDP          11.30%   
RS              4.17%   
SDP            1.16%   
JCP           15.72%

A regression analysis was able to map the PR vote to the district vote.

               LDP      JCP      JRP
LDP          80%                20%
KP            95%      5%
PNHK                   40%    60%
JRP          25%       5%    70%
DPP         45%      25%    30%
CDP          5%      75%    20%
RS          25%      55%    20%
SDP        10%      90%
JCP                     95%      5%

In the end, the JCP candidate did not have a chance.  Too much of the LDP and JRP vote rejected the JCP and even the CDP vote had some defections.  A good chunk of the JRP vote are ex-CDP and ex-HP voters and they could have picked to tactically vote JCP in order to defeat LDP.  They did not do so.  The JRP candidate did get some LDP voters as hoped for by JCP but a good chunk of the JRP vote went to LDP to tactically defeat JCP.

[xelas81]

Now were are able to map out the candidate quality of the Center-Left opposition candidates we can start looking at the outliers many of which were discussed before the election.

Ultra High quality candidates that have underperformance relative to PR implied vote share



福岡(Fukuoka) 5th +9.20% - Here the CDP candidate who was in the prefecture assembly pulled off an upset over the LDP incumbent by way outperforming the PR implied vote share.  The reason seems to be due to LDP factional warfare.  There was another LDP candidate from a different faction that was going to run turning the race into a 3-way race.   The LDP high command bought off this LDP rebel by giving him a top spot as a PR-only candidate on the PR slate.  It did not seem to work as the bitterness of the rival LDP factions in the district led to large-scale defections leading to a CDP victory.

Apparently Komeito refused to endorse LDP candidate, Yoshiaki Harada, and seems like part of Komeito PR vote went CDP candidate.
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNBW3C5JNBVTIPE013.html

[jaichind]

Now were are able to map out the candidate quality of the Center-Left opposition candidates we can start looking at the outliers many of which were discussed before the election.

Ultra High quality candidates that have underperformance relative to PR implied vote share



福岡(Fukuoka) 5th +9.20% - Here the CDP candidate who was in the prefecture assembly pulled off an upset over the LDP incumbent by way outperforming the PR implied vote share.  The reason seems to be due to LDP factional warfare.  There was another LDP candidate from a different faction that was going to run turning the race into a 3-way race.   The LDP high command bought off this LDP rebel by giving him a top spot as a PR-only candidate on the PR slate.  It did not seem to work as the bitterness of the rival LDP factions in the district led to large-scale defections leading to a CDP victory.

Apparently Komeito refused to endorse LDP candidate, Yoshiaki Harada, and seems like part of Komeito PR vote went CDP candidate.
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNBW3C5JNBVTIPE013.html

How interesting.  I did not know that.  I just did the regression on this district and the results bear out the theory of KP PR vote defection.  The result was

CDP        53.1%
LDP        46.9%

The PR vote was

LDP        33.56%   
KP          16.55%   
PNHK        1.56%   
JRP         10.43%   
DPP           4.61%   
CDP         22.06%   
RS            4.03%   
SDP          2.33%   
JCP           4.87%

There were significant PR votes that did not vote in the district so the regression took that into account which was

               CDP       LDP        DNV
LDP          10%      85%        5%
KP            30%      70%
PNHK       90%        5%        5%
JRP          80%      20%
DPP          80%      20%
CDP          90%      10%
RS            85%      10%        5%
SDP          90%        5%        5%
JCP           90%        5%        5%

I always assumed what sunk the LDP candidate was disgruntled LDP PR voters from a different faction not voting or voting for CDP.  It seems other than 5% of the LDP PR vote that did not vote the LDP PR base mostly held together.  KP PR vote usually loyally votes for LDP in other districts as I have shown but here the regression verifies the theory that it was KP defection (30% went CDP) that sunk the LDP candidate.

This shows again how vulnerable to LDP's electoral fortunes if KP were to defect in some way.

[jaichind]

Yahoo political commentator 大濱崎卓真 (Ohamasaki Takushin) came out with an article that contains a survey of voters of different parties and what their ideological position is.   Based on the results I suspect this is more about social views.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/oohamazakitakuma/20211202-00270703



It seems the youth of all parties tend to be centrist.  But as they age the LDP (red) and KP (orange) voters become more conservative.   JRP (green) and DPP(yellow) voters stay centrist as they age.  While CDP (blue) RS (pink) and JCP (purple) become more liberal as they age.

What this article points out is that JRP and DPP are moderate socailly. 

[jaichind]

Kono appeared at FCCJ (The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan) as head of LDP PR department.  Historically since the return of Abe in 2012, the LDP has made it a policy of not appearing at FCCJ mostly, I think, to prioritize connections to local Japanese media.  By appearing at FCCJ Kono is sending a message that under him the LDP PR strategy will change.



The presentation Kono gave and the Q&A which I watched made it clear why he lost the LDP Prez race and unless there is a major LDP crisis is likely to lose next time.  His communications style is blunt and tells it like it is which is attractive to me since it matches my own management style.  The problem is during the entire hour-long appearance he kept on making subtle attacks on the LDP hierarchy and Japanese bureaucracy as a bunch of fuddy-duddies which is mostly on the mark.  This will not work in the LDP which is very tenured structured and hierarchically oriented.

My communication style at work which is similar to Kono (which I guess is why I like him so much) works because my company culture of unstructured iconoclastic and mostly non-hierarchical where rank does not even really exist and where it does count for very little.  This is very different from the LDP where someone like Kono will be viewed by peers as an arrogant smart-aleck.

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll on PR vote for 2022 Upper House election.  Massive surge for JRP at the expense of LDP.  CDP and RS gains from JCP.

LDP     25.2 (-5.0)
KP        5.5  (-0.7)
PNHK   1.4 (+0.3)
JRP     22.9 (+4.5)
DPP     3.0 (+0.1)
CDP    18.3(+1.0)
RS        2.4 (+0.9)
SDP     0.9 (-0.2)
JCP      6.3 (-2.3)

If these are the levels of support then in 2022 JRP-DPP might form a viable alternative to the LDP-KP and CDP-JCP.  JRP-DPP tactical alliance with CDP-JCP in single-member seats might pose a threat to LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve stable.  No big post-election honeymoon jump but that also means he is less vulnerable to a fall in approval due to poor news cycles.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASPDJ6WWYPDJUTFK012.html

Rengo did a post-mortem on the general election.  Their conclusion is that Rengo will continue to back CDP-DPP alliance and is also open to including JRP as part of the anti-LDP alliance.  Rengo continues to be negative on CDP-JCP alliance and will reconsider the support of CDP if they continue the CDP-JCP alliance line.

[jaichind]

Latest PR voting intentions curve.  LDP (deep green) falls while JRP(light green) gains to a near tie with CDP (blue.)  KP (orange) and JCP (red) fall while RS (pink) rises. 

After an election, LDP and KP PR voting intentions should fall so JRP and RS is gaining more from independents than LDP.

[jaichind]

Kobe News did an analysis of the PR vote for Kinki region.  It concluded around 316K votes cast were for DPJ which were allocated pro rata between CDP and DPP (246K and 70K respectively).  Most likely the PR votes n other regions are similar.

If so then I suspect a bunch of votes intended for CDP actually were counted as DPP since I suspect a supermajority of those that voted DPJ really intended CDP.  This goes to partly explains the CDP underperformance and DPP overperformance on the PR slate.

[jaichind]

Japan keeps track of turnout figures by age and gender.

The male-female turnout gap is very large in favor of males in the 70s and 80s+ especially 80s+ but female turnout is more than males for the youth population.

This trend seems to have accelerated this election versus 2017 with women turnout getting closer and closer to men (which has a lead only because of the massive gap for the 80+ age range.)

What is interesting is this higher women turnout trend should help CDP (historically has a women gender gap) and hurt JRP (historically has a men gender gap) but the result was the opposite.  It seems the new increase in youth women turnout has been for JRP which must have closed the gender gap for JRP considerably.