India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

Outside of Delhi and Punjab, AAP mostly appeal to high educated (and implicitly Upper Caste) voters that get their news from the English media although some vote INC.  This group is clearly very urban.  People in this category that mainly read non-English media tend to vote BJP.  This group is more rural.
 AAP is trying to break into high educated but non-English media voters from the BJP.  To do this some support of soft Hindu nationalism is necessary.  Frankly in many Northern states, especially BJP strongholds like MP and Gujarat,  INC plays the same game.  Now AAP does the same.

In the long run, AAP seems a greater threat to the INC, than the BJP. I wonder if AAP leaders have learned from 2019 and are mainly planning to replace the INC in north India.

[jaichind]

TV9 Polstart poll on WB.  Vote shares only and not seat projection

AITC                      43.1%
BJP                        38.8%
Left-Front-INC-ISF  11.7%
Others                     6.4%



Other poll questions are

Best CM
Mamata Banerjee     51.8%  (AITC CM)
Dilip Ghosh              24.2%  (WB BJP leader)
Suvendu Adhikari      5.2%   (AITC rebel that defected to BJP in 2019)


Which party will be able to do development in Bengal if voted in 2021?
AITC                         51.1%
BJP                           38.6%
Left Front-INC-ISF        8.6%

Which points to likely tactical voting in favor for AITC

[jaichind]

In the long run, AAP seems a greater threat to the INC, than the BJP. I wonder if AAP leaders have learned from 2019 and are mainly planning to replace the INC in north India.

I agree that AAP is a threat to INC in the sense that BJP is and will continue to be the dominate party in India and there is only room for the leader of the main alternative.  Right now that is INC but clearly AAP want to try to take over that space.  Unless AAP can show that it can win in rural areas outside of Delhi and Punjab AAP will not be an contender.

The main immediate threat to INC is actually AITC.  If AITC wins by a good margin in WB AND INC does not win in Kerala and Assam, there is a good chance that all anti-BJP parties will consolidate around AITC as the leader of the anti-BJP alliance in 2024 LS elections.  This is sort of the reason why despite the fact that in WB AITC is the main alternative to BJP, INC does not ally with AITC but choose to ally with Left Front.  I think if AITC wins WB but INC wins Kerala and Assam, Rahul Gandhi should still be safe as the leader of INC and leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024.  If BJP wins both Assam and WB there is no point in being the leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024 since it will be another solid BJP win in 2024.

[jaichind]

TN alliance seat distribution

Not show are that
1) Other than PMK and BJP all other AIADMK allies will run on AIADMK symbol
2) Other than IJP and JD(S) all other MNM allies will run on MNM symbol
3) AMMK allies MSS VTPK MAK will run on AMMK symbol

[jaichind]

Shining India Survey on TN.  Now with seats
                 
                   Seats     Vote share
DMK+            135          40.3%
AIADMK+        84           34.6%
MNM                 7             6.2%
AMMK+             5             5.1%
Others              3              6.4%
Do not know                     7.4%

Just like other polls the seat share gap here is too small given the vote share gap of 6% or so.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.




Battleground seats are

[eos]

I agree that AAP is a threat to INC in the sense that BJP is and will continue to be the dominate party in India and there is only room for the leader of the main alternative.  Right now that is INC but clearly AAP want to try to take over that space.  Unless AAP can show that it can win in rural areas outside of Delhi and Punjab AAP will not be an contender.

The main immediate threat to INC is actually AITC.  If AITC wins by a good margin in WB AND INC does not win in Kerala and Assam, there is a good chance that all anti-BJP parties will consolidate around AITC as the leader of the anti-BJP alliance in 2024 LS elections.  This is sort of the reason why despite the fact that in WB AITC is the main alternative to BJP, INC does not ally with AITC but choose to ally with Left Front.  I think if AITC wins WB but INC wins Kerala and Assam, Rahul Gandhi should still be safe as the leader of INC and leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024.  If BJP wins both Assam and WB there is no point in being the leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024 since it will be another solid BJP win in 2024.

Is there any chance of the UPA forming a government in 2024 then? It seems so unlikely at this stage.

[eos]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.

Battleground seats are

I am quite surprised to see Kaliabor in a list of battleground seats. It has been a safe seat for the AGP in recent times. I wonder if they think the CAA is going to hurt the AGP here? I don't see how this is a close contest otherwise.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.

Battleground seats are

I am quite surprised to see Kaliabor in a list of battleground seats. It has been a safe seat for the AGP in recent times. I wonder if they think the CAA is going to hurt the AGP here? I don't see how this is a close contest otherwise.

I agree with you.  Some of the seats on their list I figured were safe UPA or safe NDA.   Perhaps what they meant was not a list of battlegrounds but more a list of representative districts.

We mostly have a model for how this election will go: the 2019 LS elections in Assam where AIUDF stood down in a bunch of seats to back INC which provoked a Hindu consolidation for BJP on the back of the Modi wave.   The results of this election should be the 2019 LS elections plus further fusion of the Muslim vote, backing out the Modi factor and taking into account of AJP-RD.  The  AJP-RD factor will be hard to estimate.  In theory they should take anti-CAA Assamese Hindu votes from INC  but news like

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-elections-must-unitedly-defeat-bjp-in-assam-says-jailed-activist-akhil-gogoi-2395316

""Must Unitedly Defeat" BJP In Assam, Says Jailed Activist Akhil Gogoi"

Where RD leader Akhil Gogoi calls for a vote for the strongest anti-BJP party could also create tactical voting from AJP-RD for UPA.

[jaichind]

Is there any chance of the UPA forming a government in 2024 then? It seems so unlikely at this stage.

I do not see it.  I just do not see how Rahul Gandhi can win a Presidential like election in 2024 or for INC to support a AITC led anti-BJP campaign.  I think the best UPA can do is to get BJP (these days there is no real NDA anymore, BJP really has JD(U) and AIADMK left as significant allies and I can see Nitish Kumar parting ways with BJP by 2024) to be below majority mark an force BJP to rope in non-UPA non-NDA parties like YSRCP in AP and BJD in Odisha to form a majority.

The good news for UPA is that in Indian election history there has been 2 pro-incumbent landslide waves: 1971 and 1984.  Both had the winning party (INC in both cases) losing its majority the next election.

At this stage its is not clear how BJP could lose their majority.  But in 1974 and 1986 it was also not clear how INC could lose their majority in the next election.  Things I can thing of are perhaps Rahul Gandhi is able to somehow about build a positive brand that is a winner (versus being anti-Modi or trying to copy Modi) and/or a BJP civil war breaking out between Amit Shah and UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath to become the successor to Modi.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/west-bengal-polls-once-domestic-help-kalita-majhi-gets-bjp-ticket-ausgram-sc-seat-1449252

"Meet Kalita Majhi, Domestic Help Turned BJP Candidate For West Bengal Assembly Polls"

In Ausgram where the BJP got 7.6% in 2016 the BJP decided to go for a long shot non-politicans candidate nominating a domestic servant who is married to a plumber.  By nominating someone from such a humble background does project BJP as a pro-poor party.



Unfortunately for the BJP this move blew up in its face when Kalita Majhi was interviewed by the media and was asked which party she is running for she said "AITC".   I guess she does not know much about politics and just stated the party she heard of the most, which would be the ruling AITC.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll detailed district results

BJP             41
Lean BJP     11
AGP             5
Lean AGP      1
UPPL            1
   
INC           28
Lean INC   14
AIUDF       14
BPF            7
Lean BPF    3
CPI(M)       1

The district by district result seems to indicate consolidation of INC AIUDF BPF vote bases in Lower Assam and Barak Valley while AJP-RD cuts into the BJP-AGP in Upper Assam preventing a total INC wipeout there to produce a narrow UPA victory (67-59)

As I have claimed earlier.  This sort of alliance setup means that AIUDF strike rate will be very high.  AIUDF according to this poll will win all 14 seat allocated to it under the UPA alliance.

[jaichind]

Out of the 282 WB BJP candidates nominated so far.  34 joined BJP from AITC since 2019 LS elections, 6 joined BJP from CPM since 2019 LS elections, 4 joined BJP from INC since 2019 LS elections, 1 joined from AIFB since 2019 LS elections, and 1 joined from GJM (Gorkha party and ex-BJP ally) since 2019 LS elections.

[jaichind]

For Assam I did an back-of-the-envelope calculation of Assam results based on Muslim vote consolidation behind UPA and Hindu counter-consolidation behind NDA, especially in Upper Assam.  From that I get

BJP         41
AGP         8

INC        23
AIUDF    14
BPF         7

Tossups  33

Mapping my projections to the Ground Zero Research Assam seat by seat poll we get

BJP 41 -> 32 BJP, 6 Lean BJP, 2 Lean INC, 1 INC
AGP 8  ->  5 AGP, 3 Lean INC

INC 23 -> 21 INC, 1 Lean INC, 1 Lean BJP
AIUDF 14 -> 14 AIUDF
BPF 7 -> 5 BPF, 2 Lean BPF

Tossups 33 -> 9 BJP, 1 UPPL, 4 Lean BJP, 1 Lean AGP, 1 Lean BPF, 8 Lean INC, 2 BPF, 1 CPM, 6 INC
or  15 NDA/Lean NDA and 18 UPA/Lean UPA

Looking at this mapping it seems AGP is the weak link in NDA.  Most likely this is part of the AGP base switching over to INC or AJD-RD due to CAA.   But overall a "fundamental" approach to this election would be the right way to go about it if these poll results are accurate.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/uttarakhand-cm-trivendra-rawat-to-resign-today/articleshow/81408888.cms

"Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat to resign today"

In Uttarakhand BJP CM quits a year ahead of 2022 assembly elections.  Trivendra Singh Rawat has been unpopular with the BJP base as well as the state as a whole for a while now.  It seems BJP is headed toward defeat next year in Uttarakhand assembly elections.  This move most likely will not help but both INC and BJP in Uttarakhand have a tradition of changing CM mid-term to try to boost chances of next assembly elections usually to no avail with gains voted through a new face offset by losses suffered due to partisans aligned with the old CM not working to support the party in the next assembly elections. 

The new Uttarakhand CM Tirah Singh Rawat is already causing all sorts of issues

First there is

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-shocked-to-see-women-in-ripped-jeans-uttarakhand-cm-tirath-singh-rawat/377533

"Uttarakhand CM Tirath Singh Rawat Asks: What Values Will Women In Ripped Jeans Teach?"

Where new Uttarakhand CM Tirah Singh Rawat made a comment about a young mother that was sitting next to him wearing ripped jeans which caused an uproar on the internet.


Then a day later

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/america-ruled-india-for-200-years-uttarakhand-chief-minister-tirath-singh-rawat-2395794

""America Ruled India For 200 Years...": Uttarakhand Chief Minister"

He seems to have misspoke and claimed that USA ruled India for 200 years (versus UK.)


Good news for him is that this might hurt him in urban area with heavy online presence but Uttarakhand is mostly rural with fairly conservative so this will blow over for him if there are not more blowups.

[jaichind]

WB seat sharing status.

Not listed is that one of the AITC candidates was disqualified so AITC will back an AITC rebel as a pro-AITC independent in that seat.

For 11 remaining BJP seats I suspect the 3 Gorkhaland seats will go to pro-BJP Gorkhaland parties and the rest the BJP will contest.

[jaichind]

Mathrubhumi C-Voter poll on Kerala

         Seats     Vote Share
LDF      79            40.9%
UDF      60            37.9%
NDA       1             16.6%

Support government and does not want change  31.9%
Oppose government and does not want change  27.6%
Oppose government and want change                40.5%
 

Support/Oppose government balance not go for LDF.  A base turnout election should see UDF win.
 

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat has released opinion polls for the coming election.

Assam

NDA 68-78

BJP - 54-61
AGP - 10-15
UPPL - 2-4 (?, this should be 4-4 if NDA's threshold is 68)

UPA 48-58

INC - 28-33
AIUDF - 12-15
BPF - 7-9
LEFT - 1-1

OTH - 0-0

NDA: 40.5

BJP - 31.5
AGP - 6.0
UPPL - 3.0

UPA: 42.5

INC: 28.0
AIUDF - 10.0
BPF - 4.0
LEFT - 0.5

OTH - 17.0

Thoughs? Jaan Ki Baat says the UPA will get more votes, but NDA will get more seats. The idea is that UPA will run up the margins in Lower Assam, but NDA will be more effective in winning seats, especially in Upper Assam.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat has released opinion polls for the coming election.

Assam

NDA 68-78

BJP - 54-61
AGP - 10-15
UPPL - 2-4 (?, this should be 4-4 if NDA's threshold is 68)

UPA 48-58

INC - 28-33
AIUDF - 12-15
BPF - 7-9
LEFT - 1-1

OTH - 0-0

NDA: 40.5

BJP - 31.5
AGP - 6.0
UPPL - 3.0

UPA: 42.5

INC: 28.0
AIUDF - 10.0
BPF - 4.0
LEFT - 0.5

OTH - 17.0

Thoughs? Jaan Ki Baat says the UPA will get more votes, but NDA will get more seats. The idea is that UPA will run up the margins in Lower Assam, but NDA will be more effective in winning seats, especially in Upper Assam.

Yeah I was about to post that




Certainly this is possible.  This is, like you said, complete Muslim vote transfer in Lower Assam between INC and AIUDF and leading to a lot of wasted votes while BJP-AGP sweeps Upper Assam. BPF at 8 seats also indicate a sweep for UPA in Lower Assam which means NDA must have swept Upper Assam.

I do think Jan Ki Baat is hedging by having a UPA vote share lead but NDA seat share lead.  Overall I think this poll is not positive for NDA.  To be behind vote share point of view at this stage seems to indicate a anti-incumbent surge.  If I were to just take the poll as is I would think UPA will win election day.

[jaichind]

One subtle criticism I have of the  Jan Ki Baat Assam poll is that it has UPA beating the NDA in vote share by 2% but losing seat wise 73 to 53 which means a perfect transfer of the INC and AIUDF Muslim vote in Lower Assam.  If so the AIUDF should easily win the 14 seats it is contesting as part of the alliance.  Yet this projection still have AIUDF at 10-15 seats.  It should really be 14-15 (I assume to allowed for AIUDF winning a seat out of the 4-5 seats where INC is also contesting in a "friendly" fight.)

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat WB poll has BJP narrowing winning on a near tie in vote share with AITC
                                 
                                 Seats    Vote Share
BJP                             155         44.8%
AITC                           127         44.1%
Left Front-INC-ISF         12            7.5%
 



For the BJP to be ahead before the election is very bad news for AITC and it seems now that BJP is in a good position to win in WB.  A total shock relative to where the BJP was in WB in 2011.

[jaichind]

Final ABP CNX WB poll has BJP surging into a tie with AITC

                                  Seats       Vote share
AITC                             151            40%
BJP                               135            38%
Left Front-INC-ISF           16             16%
Others                             2               6%

The momentum is clearly with BJP and now they seem poised to win the election




Evolution of ABP-CNX poll



44% thinks BJP will win and 42% thinks AITC will win

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat has released opinion polls for the coming election.

Assam

NDA 68-78

BJP - 54-61
AGP - 10-15
UPPL - 2-4 (?, this should be 4-4 if NDA's threshold is 68)

UPA 48-58

INC - 28-33
AIUDF - 12-15
BPF - 7-9
LEFT - 1-1

OTH - 0-0

NDA: 40.5

BJP - 31.5
AGP - 6.0
UPPL - 3.0

UPA: 42.5

INC: 28.0
AIUDF - 10.0
BPF - 4.0
LEFT - 0.5

OTH - 17.0

Thoughs? Jaan Ki Baat says the UPA will get more votes, but NDA will get more seats. The idea is that UPA will run up the margins in Lower Assam, but NDA will be more effective in winning seats, especially in Upper Assam.

Yeah I was about to post that

Certainly this is possible.  This is, like you said, complete Muslim vote transfer in Lower Assam between INC and AIUDF and leading to a lot of wasted votes while BJP-AGP sweeps Upper Assam. BPF at 8 seats also indicate a sweep for UPA in Lower Assam which means NDA must have swept Upper Assam.

I do think Jan Ki Baat is hedging by having a UPA vote share lead but NDA seat share lead. Overall I think this poll is not positive for NDA.  To be behind vote share point of view at this stage seems to indicate a anti-incumbent surge.  If I were to just take the poll as is I would think UPA will win election day.

Agreed. I think Jan Ki Baat are too bullish on NDA's prospects in Upper Assam, and maybe Barak Valley.

[eos]

Jan Ki Baat WB poll has BJP narrowing winning on a near tie in vote share with AITC
                                 
                                 Seats    Vote Share
BJP                             155         44.8%
AITC                           127         44.1%
Left Front-INC-ISF         12            7.5%
 
For the BJP to be ahead before the election is very bad news for AITC and it seems now that BJP is in a good position to win in WB.  A total shock relative to where the BJP was in WB in 2011.

This is a massive leap for BJP even compared to where they were in 2016. One has to assume that the 2019 LS elections convinced all the anti-Trinamool voters to consolidate behind the BJP.

[eos]

Embarrassment for BJP in Assam.

pratidintime .com/beef-is-national-dish-of-india-gauripur-bjp-candidate/

In a surprising turn of events, BJP candidate from Assam’s Gauripur constituency, Banendra Kumar Mushahary, has claimed that beef is the “National Dish” of India.

“How can anyone try to ban beef? It is the National Dish of India,” he said while addressing an election meeting in a Muslim-dominated area.

He added that beef is an international dish and “educated Muslims in the rural areas of Assam should understand that no one can ban the sale of beef in Assam or anywhere in India.”

Notably, the BJP has always been campaigning for beef ban across the country. Mushahary’s statement greatly contradicts the party’s ideologies and principles.

Mushahary, a veteran politician, joined the BJP last year in December. He was first elected  to the Assam Legislative Assembly in 1996 as an independent candidate from Gauripur constituency in Dhubri district.

In 2011, he was elected as an AGP candidate from Gauripur. Later, he joined the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and was elected as an MLA for the third time.

Meanwhile, BJP workers in the districts have expressed serious concern on Mushahary’s remarks and demanded that he tender an apology.

Moreover, members of Purbanchal Hindu Aikya Mancha filed an FIR at Dispur police station and demanded actions against the BJP candidate for violating Model Code of Conduct which was enforced in February 26 in poll-bound Assam.