India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

April to May will see assembly elections in TN Kerala WB Assam and Puducherry
Later in the year perhaps will be the long delayed J&K assembly elections.

Rough thoughts now

TN- AIADMK-PMK-DMDK-BJP-TMC vs DMK-INC-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-VCK.  DMK bloc most likely will have the edge over the incumbent AIADMK bloc.  AIADMK splinter AMMK and Center-Left MNM will most likely peal off votes from AIADMK+ and DMK+ bloc respectively. 

Recent Lok poll has DMK bloc well ahead
               
              Seats   Vote
DMK+      183    46.5%
AIADMK+  47     35.5%
AMMK         2       6.5%



WB - Ruling AITC vs BJP with INC-Left Front trying to survive by forming an alliance.  AITC should have the edge given Modi is not on the ballot but it is possible that INC-Left Front and AIMIM draw off enough votes to endanger AITC.

Recent Lok poll has AITC ahead but for an incumbent to only be slightly ahead at this stage is not a good sign for AITC
            Seats    Votes
AITC      158     42.5%
BJP        107     37.5%
INC-LF     22     13.5%





Assam - Ruling BJP-AGP-UPPL-GSP vs INC-AIUDF-CPI-CPM-CPI(ML) vs BPF.  In theory the grand alliance of INC-AIUDF should give INC+ the victory.  But the INC alliance with an outright Muslim AIUDF could consolidate the Hindu vote around BJP.    Also the anti-CAA RD and AJP will most likely form an alliance and draw both from the Assam regionalist AGP as well as from the INC in the form of the anti-BJP vote.  How well AJP-RD does plus how the Bodo vote will break between UPPL and ex-BJP ally BPF will determine the result

Latest Lok poll has it neck-to-neck which I guess is bad news for BJP

                   Seats     Votes
BJP+             65         38.5%
INC+             53         40.5%
BPF                 7          2.5%
Others            3

The idea here is that Muslims are concentrated in Lower Assam where the INC-AIUDF alliance will create a lot of wasted votes in heavy Muslim seats.



Kerala - Ruling LDF vs UDF vs BJP-BDJS.  In theory the INC lead UDF should win by a landslide but it seems in 2020 LDF has regained a lot of ground given its relative good handling of COVID-19.

Latest Lok poll has it neck-to-neck which in theory still means UDF should win

               Seats    Votes
LDF           76      41.5%
UDF           64     40.5%
NDA            0     13.5%

[jaichind]

C-Voter poll on preferred PM has a massive Modi lead over Rahul Gandhi.   Only exception is Punjab (focus point of the farmer protest), TN, and Kerala.  It is a repeat of the 2019 LS election patter of Modi/BJP as the party of Indo-Aryan Hindu identity.




All things equal the C-Voter poll shows that hierarchy of popularity are:

Non-BJP Non-INC CMs > Modi > BJP > INC > Rahul Gandhi

Modi is more popular than BJP and Rahul Gandhi less popular than INC.

[jaichind]

ABP-Cover polls for TN, WB, Assam and Kerala

WB
                Seats     Vote share
AITC          158           43.0%
BJP            102           37.5%
INC-LF         30           11.8%
Others          4             7.7%



TN
                   Seats        Vote
DMK+            162        41.1%
AIADMK+        64         28.7%
NMN                 2          6.7%
AMMK               4          7.8%
Others              2         15.7%



Assam

NDA               77          43%
UPA               40           35%
AIUDF             7             8%
Others            2           14%

Note that INC will most likely have an alliance with AIUDF but while that might take a few seats from NDA in Lower Assam the Hindu consolidation in Upper Assam in response most likely will swing a similar number of seats back to NDA in Upper Assam.  This poll seems to indicate that UPPL-BJP will beat out BPF in the battle of Bodoland.


Kerala
                    Seats         Votes
LDF                 85             42%
UDF                53             35%
BJP                   1             15%
Others              1               8%


All these polls seems to have the ruling bloc ahead in all states except for TN.  So we can be sure that in TN DMK+ will sweep.  In the other 3 states the ruling party should be ahead in polls at this stage but in all the cases the ruling bloc vote share lead is around 7%-8% which is quite surmountable. 

[jaichind]

These early polls point to one fact: INC underperformance.  INC is losing ground in WB, letting the BJP get ahead in Assam despite the anti-CAA anger at BJP, falling behind in Kerala when the political cycle should point to a UDF victory, and only gaining ground in TN only on the back of the DMK.

The problem is really at the top with Rahul Gandhi.  It seems he is still bitter he lost the 2019 LS election in a de facto Modi vs Rahul Gandhi Prez race in a landslide.  He seems to want to redeem himself by hammering away at Modi trying to tear down Modi.  This is a losing strategy.   Most Hindus in India view Modi as a monk like figure (he is unmarried and seems devoted to his job) and with irreproachable motivations even if the in many cases the results are not objectively good.  Rahul Gandhi should not focus his attacks on Modi's personality but instead focus on how Modi is surrounded by corrupt ministers and undermine his good intentions.  But it seems Rahul Gandhi is so focused on revenge for 2019 he is double downing on this flawed strategy.  In the meantime INC could not cut off the Gandhi family or the party falls apart in a series of tribal feuds.   

I think out of the 4 elections Assam will be the make or break for INC.  INC has to show that when the alternative to a BJP government is the INC  the INC can beat the BJP 1-on-1.  So far INC is not out of the race although it is starting out not so well.   Worst for INC former INC CM Tarun Gogoi passed away due to CIVID-19 in late 2020 and now INC no longer has a face even if it will accrue some short term benefit from the sympathy factor.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/fight-to-remove-bjp-assam-congress-5-parties-team-up-for-state-polls-2354902

"Fight To Remove BJP": Assam Congress, 5 Parties Team Up For State Polls

INC announces an alliance with AIUDF CPI CPM CPI(ML) and AGM (new anti-CAA party).  Frankly I do not really believe it until I see the seat allocation in this alliance.  In Lower Assam there are many heavy Muslim seats where it is really INC vs AIUDF.  I find it hard to believe INC and AIUDF can work out deals in these seat.  In Upper Assam it is easy as AIUDF is fairly weak there and just back INC.

INC seems to also want to rope in anti-CAA AJP and RD as well. I do not thing this is a good idea.  INC and AIUDF are opposed to CAA for different reasons than AJD and RD.   INC and AIUDF are opposed to CAA because it excludes Muslims.  AJD and RD are opposed to CAA because it includes Bengali speaking Hindus.  These positions are in conflict and the BJP will be back to pick apart such an alliance.  INC is much better of going with its current alliance and hope AJD-RD picks off anti-CAA Assamese Hindu votes that might otherwise go to BJP in an anti-Muslim consolidation against AIUDF.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/tamil-nadu-assembly-elections-no-chance-tamil-nadu-chief-minister-on-vk-sasikala-rejoining-aiadmk-2354849

"No Chance": Tamil Nadu Chief Minister On VK Sasikala Rejoining AIADMK

Ex-AIADMK chief Sasikala will be out of prison soon after serving a 4 year sentence.  She ousted AIADMK CM OPS (Ottakarathevar Panneerselvam) back in 2017 and was about to take office herself before she was convicted for corruption and put in jail.  She put in EPS (Edappadi K. Palaniswami) as her proxy as CM before she went to jail.

Here is Palaniswami kneeling before Sasikala  when he was appointed CM of TN in 2017


Anyway after Sasikala went to jail EPS immediately betrayed her, ousted her as leader of AIADMK, joined force with OPS who became DCM and Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran formed AIADMK splinter AMMK.

The BJP has been trying to get a AIADMK-AMMK merger after the AIADMK-BJP debacle in 2019 LS in TN  but have mostly accepted that the break is final and that AMMK led by Sasikala and Dhinakaran will be running separately

Prostrating yourself in front of the leader is common in AIADMK culture.  Here is a minister doing so before AIADMK CM Jayalalithaa
 

Do so does not seem to rule out the same person doing the prostrating from backstabbing the leader in question

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/assam-congress-hopes-alliance-will-help-add-20-seats/articleshow/80371231.cms

"Assam Congress hopes alliance will help add 20 seats"

INC hopes alliance with AIUDF will avoid split of Muslim votes and gain a bunch of seats relative to 2016.  I am skeptical of such calculations mainly because this was already sort of tried in 2019 LS elections.  AIUDF did not run in Upper Assam and stepped aside in a couple of seats in Lower Assam.  The result was still a BJP landslide win as fusion of the Muslim vote merely triggered an consolidation of the Hindu vote.

The 2019 LS election result was

BJP    - 9
INC    - 3
AIUDF -1
GSP    -1

This time around BJP dumped BPF as an ally and roped in GSP and UPPL to help them win in Bodoland.

Had AIUDF and INC had a complete alliance and all votes perfectly transferred INC-AIUDF would have only won one more seat which still leaves BJP with 8 out of 14 Assam LS seats.  True, this time around Modi will not be on the ballot but a perfect INC-AIUDF alliance would also trigger a bunch of INC and AIUDF rebels that will split the Muslim vote.  I think the final result will be down to Bodoland.  If BJP-UPPL-GSP can beat BPF in Bodoland I think NDA should win a majority.  In not it will be a hung assembly even if INC-AIUDF bloc can consolidate its votes.
 

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-vk-sasikala-shifted-to-intensive-care-tests-positive-for-covid-19/371410

"VK Sasikala Shifted To Intensive Care, Tests Positive For Covid-19"

Just a few days before she is to be let out of jail Ex-AIADMK chief Sasikala seems to have caught COViD-19 and is in intensive care.  If AMMK will run separately and not join AIADMK bloc as BJP hopes, Sasikala  will have to play a big role in the campaign.  Sasikala is the "Huma Abedin" to the deceased AIADMK CM Jayalalitha and still have a large pull on old Jayalalitha loyalists, especially in South TN.  If AMMK is going to have am impact in the TN assembly election Sasikala will have to be health and engaged in the campaign.
 
The number of people in the Indian political class that seems to have caught COVID-19 and even died of it is fairly large.  Seems to imply the numbers India is putting out for total COVD-19 infections and death are most likely underestimates.

[jaichind]

INC announced that it will election a new Prez in June, after the assembly elections, to replace interim Prez Sonia Gandhi.  I guess what they are going to do is to deploy Rahul Gandhi in states where INC could do well (TN Kerala Assam) and if INC does do well then announce Rahul Gandhi's triumphant return to the role of INC Prez.

[jaichind]

I’ve noticed that in Lokpolls done so far, the Left Front in Kerala are estimated to lose seats. What could be the cause of this?

LDF losing seats and losing election to LDP would be par for the course. Since 1977 every government running for re-election (10 times in all) in Kerala assembly have been defeated.  2021 should be the LDF's turn and despite polls having LDF ahead I still feel UDF is likely to win by a narrow margin and return to power.  Polls at this stage tends to overestimate the incumbent and history is on the side of UDF.

[jaichind]

INC announced that it will election a new Prez in June, after the assembly elections, to replace interim Prez Sonia Gandhi.  I guess what they are going to do is to deploy Rahul Gandhi in states where INC could do well (TN Kerala Assam) and if INC does do well then announce Rahul Gandhi's triumphant return to the role of INC Prez.

Isn't Rahul Gandhi a huge flop? I think I read somewhere, sometime ago, that his sister, Priyanka Gandhi, was way more popular than him. Is that true?

I do not think Priyanka Gandhi is that interested.  Or stated differently, the INC today has two factions: the Sonia Gandhi Old Guard faction and the Rahul Young Turks faction.  The  Rahul Gandhi  would not let Priyanka Gandhi come and take the crown.  While Rahul Gandhi did a better job on the campaign trail in 2019 vs 2014 he was a total flop as a election strategy leader in 2019.  Worse what Rahul Gandhi seems to want now is to be in charge but not accountable.  He does not want to be the Prez to avoid accountability.  What he is looking for is for the  Sonia Gandhi Old Guard faction to come beg him to take over so he then can come in with a mandate to purge the  Sonia Gandhi Old Guard faction.  Until then he has de facto control of the party (or most of it) and no one is really interested in taking over as INC Prez just to be undercut by Rahul Gandhi and take the blame for any setbacks.

The only way forward for the INC is hope that Rahul Gandhi does well enough leading INC into the assembly election this cycle for him to return to INC Prez with a mandate and purge enough of the  Sonia Gandhi Old Guard faction so he will then have complete control of the party and then organize to take on BJP in 2024.  All in all there is less than 1/3 chance in my view for the INC to do well enough in 2021 assembly election for this to take place so continued purgatory for INC might continue to the benefit of Modi/BJP.

[jaichind]

One factor in how the Kerala assembly will go is the continued saga of various Kerala Congress (KEC) faction splits and defections.  KEC was formed in 1964 as a INC Christian splinter.  It has played a key role in the multipolar Kerala politics until the mid 1970s when Kerala became mostly bipolar between INC led UDF and CPM led LDF where it started to splinter into factions and defect back and forth between the two blocs.  The scale of splintering and defections between the two blocs, especially the last 10 years, would qualify the KEC as the winder of the "Judea People's Front" award for factionalism.

The long and complicated history of KEC splinters and defections are below.  I would use each assembly election year as demarcation mark.

1970-1977
KEC splits into the much larger pro-UDF KEC(Mani) and the smaller pro-LDF KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

1977 elections
UDF (wins)
KEC(Mani)  (gets to use KEC symbol)

LDF
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

1977-1980
KEC(Mani) defects to LDF
KEC(Joseph) splits from KEC(Mani) and stays in UDF

1980
UDF
KEC(Joseph)

LDF (wins)
KEC(Mani) (gets to use KEC symbol)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

1980-1982
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai) merges into KEC(Mani)
KEC(Mani) defects to UDF
SKEC splits from KEC(Mani) and stays in LDF

1982
UDF (wins)
KEC(Mani) (includes KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)) (gets to use the KEC symbol)
KEC(Joseph)

LDF
SKEC

1982-1987
KEC(Mani) and KEC(Joseph) merges into KEC(Mani-Joseph)
KEC(Mani) splits from KEC(Mani-Joseph)
KEC(Mani-Joseph) becomes KEC(Joseph) again but get to keep KEC symbol
SKEC merges into CPM

1987
UDF
KEC(Joseph) (gets to use the KEC symbol)
KEC(Mani) (includes the KEC(Balakrishna Pillai))

LDF (wins)
no KEC faction

1987-1991
KEC(Joseph) defects to LDF
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai) splits out again from KEC(Mani) but stays in UDF

1991
UDF (wins)
KEC(Mani)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

LDF
KEC(Joseph) (gets to use KEC symbol)

1991-1996
KEC(Jacob) splits from KEC(Mani) but stays in UDF

1996
UDF
KEC(Mani)
KEC(Jacob)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

LDF (wins)
KEC(Joseph) (gets to use KEC symbol)

1996-2001
no change

2001
UDF (wins)
KEC(Mani)
KEC(Jacob)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

LDF
KEC(Joseph) (gets to use KEC symbol)

2001-2006
KEC(Jacob) merges into INC splinter DIC and stays part of UDF
KEC(Secular) led by PC George splits from KEC(Joseph) but stays part of LDF
IFDP led by PC Thomas split from KEC(Mani) and joins NDA

2006
UDF
DIC (INC splinter but includes merged in KEC(Jacob))
KEC(Mani)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

LDF (wins)
KEC(Joseph) (gets to use KEC symbol)
KEC(Secular) (led by PC George)

NDA
IFDP

2006-2011
KEC(Jacob) splits out from INC splinter DIC  and stays in UDF
IPDF led by PC Thomas merges into KEC(Jacob)
KEC(Joseph) merges into KEC(Mani)
KEC(Secular) merges into KEC(Mani)
KEC(Skaria Thomas) spits out from KEC(Joseph) and stays in LDF
PC Thomas leaves KEC(Jacob) and joins KEC(Skaria Thomas)
The KEC(Skaria Thomas) split from KEC(Joseph) which had the KEC symbol dispute had ECI rule that the old KEC symbol is disputed and no longer has an owner

2011
UDF (wins)
KEC(Mani) (including KEC(Joseph) and KEC(Secular) led by PC George)
KEC(Jacob)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)

LDF
KEC(Skaria Thomas)

2011-2016
JKC splits from KEC(Mani) and joins LDF
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai) defects to LDF
KEC(Thomas) led by PC Thomas splits from KEC(Skaria Thomas) and joins NDA
Old leader of KEC(Secular) PC George rebels from KEC(Mani)
KEC(Nationalist) split from KEC(Mani) and joined NDA and then merged into BJP

2016
UDF
KEC(Mani) (including old KEC(Joseph))
KEC(Jacob)

Old leader of KEC(Secular) PC George runs as KEC(Mani) rebel

LDF (wins)
JKC
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)
KEC(Skaria Thomas)

NDA
KEC(Thomas)

2016-2021
KEC(Mani) defects to LDF
KEC(Joseph) splits out from KEC(Mani) and stays in UDF
Old leader of KEC(Secular) PC George and KEC(Mani) rebel forms KJ(S) and joins NDA

2021 (for now)
UDF
KEC(Joseph)
KEC(Jacob)

LDF
KEC(Mani)
JKC
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)
KEC(Skaria Thomas)

NDA
KEC(Thomas)
KJ(S)

There are signs that KEC(Jacob) KEC(Mani) and JKC still have more splits to go through with rebel factions merging with other KEC factions in other fronts.  Until all the candidates are nominated one cannot be sure of any more splits and defections.

[jaichind]

What a mess INC is in. It seems that the Gandhi family has become toxic for the party and it is much more a problem than a solution. Like any family business/company, when the business is fully dependent on one family, it's doomed to fail.

The way out, in my view, is for INC to shift to a franchise model.  INC and Gandhi cannot put in the votes at a level that can win in a national election anymore but they still have brand recognition and is good for 20% of the vote.  What they should do is to accept the reality that the Gandhi family cannot win elections on their own  and franchise out the INC label to aspiring local politicians that roughly accept a Center-Left non-sectarian political ideology.  The INC organization and Rahul Gandhi will come once in a while to campaign for them  and handle macro level advertisements but the local franchise owner will be responsible for fetching the votes and GOTV efforts.  This sort of model still cannot beat Modi in an national election but will keep the INC alive as the main alternative to BJP and can bounce back once Modi leaves the scene and the country tires of the BJP in a decade or two.

[jaichind]

Latest TOI Semi-annual MOTN poll

            Seats   Vote
NDA       321     43%
UPA         93      27%
Others   129      30%



Which is pretty much no change from the Aug 2020 version of the poll

More details from India Today's MOTN poll


 


If LS elections were held now the result would be

           Vote share             Seats
NDA       42%(+1%)       316 (+13)
  BJP        36%(--)            283 (+12)
UPA       27%(-2%)          93 (-15)           
  INC        19%(-1%)         49 (-11)
Rest      31%(+1%)        134 (+2)

Very little change from Jan 2020 poll and a replication of 2019 LS elections with the only difference that SHS is no longer in NDA and will cost NDA/BJP seats

The poll also gamed out how would thinks look if UPA got bigger by bring in more allies


If 17 opposition parties which includes SP, BSP, TDP, Left Front, AIUDF, RLD etc etc join UPA

NDA will still win but BJP will miss majority by itself

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                301
  BJP          36%                269
UPA         39%               153
  INC          19%                53
Others     19%                 89

If in addition to 17 opposition parties joining UPA, SHS, AITC, and AAP join UPA.  Then NDA narrowly wins majority with UPA beating out NDA in terms of vote share

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                282
  BJP          36%                250
UPA         45%               212
  INC          19%                55
Others     13%                 49

I think it will never work out this way as all these parties vote bases will be hard to merge.   49 does seem large for Others in such a scenario.   I guess it will be BJD YSRCP TRS AIMIM.  I find it hard for these 4 parties to egt to 49 seats.  In such a polarized election I doubt BJD and YSRCP can repeat the 21 and 25 seats they won last time.

[jaichind]

Various BJP states have passed anti "Love Jihad" laws that on paper is trying to stop coerced conversions but has the impact of discouraging inter-faith and even inter-caste marriages.  MOTN poll shows that a majority believe in the basis of these laws.

[jaichind]

In Assam, with INC-AIUDF alliance likely to take place the BJP line is

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/cong-regional-parties-bent-on-babur-s-rule-in-assam-bjp-mla-himanta-121012400563_1.html

"Cong, regional parties bent on Babur's rule in Assam: BJP MLA Himanta"

Babur being the founder of the Muslim Moghul Dynasty.  With INC on record being in alliance with AIUDF the BJP will just yell "Muslim, Muslim, Musilm"  Note Himanta had an AGP background but was a key INC leader until 2015 when he defected and became a key BJP strategist and leader in the NorthEast


On the INC side their line is

https://in.news.yahoo.com/bjp-trying-destroy-assamese-identity-144907295.html

"BJP trying to destroy Assamese identity through CAA, Hindutva politics: Congress"

Which is trying counter BJP's Hindu vs Muslim polarization with Assamese vs Non-Assamese polarization by hitting CAA

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-farms-protests-idUSKBN29R1QN

"Indian farmers to step up protests after rejecting offer to defer controversial new laws"

In the farmer (really rich farms in Punjab Haryana and Western UP) vs Modi battle over new Farm Laws it seems Modi blinked first. 

The new laws remove restrictions on cross state trading of agriculture in return for removal of MSP (minimum support price) for some agriculture  products (where all benefits seems to go to rich farmers in Punjab Haryana and Western UP.)   The passage of laws already triggered SAD to leave NDA and put massive pressure on Haryana's JJP to leave NDA and have provoked massive protests by farmers from Punjab, Haryana and West UP.

Modi is now offering to delay the law by 1.5 years to allow to negotiations between farmers groups and the government.  This has been rejected by the farm protestors demanding rolling back the new farm reform laws and they have upped their demand that MSP (minimum support price) be enshrined in federal law.

It seems this battle will go on for a while.   

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bengal-assembly-polls-congress-left-decide-to-contest-77-seats-they-won-in-2016/articleshow/80453269.cms

"Bengal assembly polls: Congress, Left decide to contest 77 seats they won in 2016"

In WB, INC and Left Front agree on the no brainer that each party runs in seats that they won in 2016 when they had a tactical alliance.  How to divide up the remaining seats will be the tough one,

[jaichind]

With 2021 as the likely year of the BJP breakthrough in WB at the assembly level we can now take a look at the likely 2021 balance of power between BJP and INC.

Since Modi has a large personal vote I usually look at assembly election results to get a sense of the BJP vs INC balance of power.  For every year since the 1980s I compute the trailing cumulative vote share for BJP and INC at the assembly level.  I also break up the states by language (Hindi, Indo-Aryan, Sino-Tibetan, and Dravidian.)  Sino-Tibetan is just the NE states and are tiny in terms of population size when compared to the other 3 clusters.

We can look at this data at certain sample years:
1988 - Last year of INC hegemony and before the rise of Hindutva
1995 - Right before Vajpayee era
2003 - Right before the return of INC
2013 - Right before the Modi surge
2021 - Today - I make assumptions of what the turnout and vote share results will be in the 2021 assembly elections

Doing so and looking at the breakdown by state type we get

BJP
                            1988       1995      2003       2013      2021
Total                      7.47%  17.65%  18.28%  18.30%   29.32%
Hindi                    14.79%  28.01%  26.29%  27.16%   36.28%
Indo-Aryan             4.39%  16.02%  17.16%  16.51%   33.70%
Sino-Tibetan           0.97%    2.65%   7.82%    1.91%   22.03%
Dravidian               1.99%    3.28%   3.78%    3.17%     5.29%

INC
                            1988       1995      2003       2013      2021
Total                    37.96%   29.12%  24.68%  24.52%   20.21%
Hindi                   41.39%   26.19%   21.12%  22.52%   20.98%
Indo-Aryan          41.71%   32.72%   28.31%  26.41%   22.65%
Sino-Tibetan        33.70%   35.82%   30.90%  37.24%   23.32%
Dravidian            26.56%   26.93%   24.86%  24.31%   13.26%


The picture is clear.  BJP was a mostly Hindi based party during the era of INC hegemony and that continued even in the era of the BJP Hindutva surge along with a rise in support for BJP in Indo-Aryan areas. 

The Vajpayee era had Vajpayee getting a lot of personal vote in LS elections but did not meaningfully add to the BJP base.  Under Vajpayee BJP support in Sino-Tibetan rose only because due to the need for federal subsidies the Sino-Tibetan states tend to shift their support to the ruling party at the center.  This reversed itself after INC returned in 2004 as BJP support in Sino-Tibetan areas collapsed by 2013. 

The Sonia Gandhi INC era starting in 2004 did not really shift the balance of power between BJP and INC.  The Modi wave in 2014 clearly did.  The BJP vote share in Hindi areas shot up mostly at the expense of non-INC parties.  But it was in the Indo-Aryan states that the BJP made its biggest gains (assuming BJP does well in WB this year.)  Again this was mostly at the expense of non-INC parties.  INC support in Dravidian fell after 2013 due to the split of YSRCP from INC in AP.
 
The fact that under Modi the BJP level support in Indo-Aryan is now expected to be close to BJP levels of support in Hindi states plays into my narrative that under Modi the BJP has become an Indo-Aryan Hindu party.  This new BJP hegemony means that the Sino-Tibetan states will also swing BJP due to BJP now becoming the new natural party of governance. 

Under this model places where BJP gets into trouble under this model now can be predicted.  It would be deep Dravidian states like TN and Kerala.  Also the recent farmer protests which the BJP is not able to resolve is because of Punjab has a Sikh majority and it is the Sikhs that are leading the farmer protests with old BJP ally SAD leaving the NDA.

Another observation is that which INC is in deep trouble it still has around 20% of the vote which is still above what the BJP had before the surge of Modi.  This shows that the BJP surge under Modi was mostly at the expense of non-INC parties and that the INC still, if it can get itself organized, be the main alternative to BJP in this current period of BJP hegemony.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/sasikala-disproportionate-assets-case-coronavirus-explained-7163383/

"Explained: Out of prison, a look at the four options before V K Sasikala"

In TN, despite having COVID-19 ex-AIADMK leader and now de facto leader of AIADMK splinter AMMK Sasikala is out of prison as of today.   The article points out that while AIADMK EPS-OPS duo will not accept  Sasikala back into AIADMK they might accept an AIADMK-AMMK alliance in the assembly that the BJP is hoping for.  Very likely this will not take place.  For AIADMK to accommodate AMMK and BJP then PMK and DMDK most likely will exit the AIADMK alliance.   Also for  Sasikala she has an incentive to lead a third front to ensure the defeat of the AIADMK since without being CM-DCM, EPS-OPS has very little in terms of mass support and a post-defeat AIADMK most likely will turn to  Sasikala to lead AIADMK again.  I can even see a situation where PMK and DMDK up their demands on AIADMK and it not accommodated, bolt to join AMMK's third front.  Such a result would ensure a 1996 like landslide defeat meltdown of AIADMK

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/west-bengal/article/mamata-will-be-alone-by-the-time-west-bengal-election-begins-amit-shah-after-5-ex-tmc-leaders-join-bjp/714150

"Mamata will be alone by the time West Bengal election begins: Amit Shah after 5 ex-TMC leaders join BJP"

In WB there has been a constant stream AITC MLA defecting to BJP as it becomes clear this will be a AITC vs BJP battle with the BJP looking to make very large games relative to 2016. 

A key defector is the AITC MLA from Nandigram and a key former aide of Mamata Banerjee.  Getting involved in the Nandigram protests over the new economic zones in 2007 was critical to the rise of AITC and overthrowing Left Front rule in WB in the 2009 LS and 2011 assembly elections.  Mamata Banerjee seems to be taking this head on and seems to have indicated that she will contest from Nandigram daring the BJP to re-nominate her former aide.

Meanwhile pro-AITC Muslim leader Abbas Siddiqui seems to be looking to form his own party and could end up being in an alliance with INC-Left Front or AIMIM or even BJP.  Still most likely the Muslim vote will consolidate around AITC.  While parties like AIMIM and INC-Left Front could splinter the Muslim vote, various non-Bengali based parties SHS, RJD, JD(U), LJP etc etc are looking to contest and will split non-Bengali Hindu votes that the BJP is looking to get.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/west-bengal-assembly-seat-sharing-congress-to-contest-on-193-seats-left-front-get-101-101611835014966.html

"Bengal Assembly elections: Cong to contest on 92 seats, Left Front get 101"

In the meantime INC-Left Front talks seems to have agreed to INC 92 seats and Left Front 101 seats out of the 193 of 294 total seats.  It seems the Left Front is pretty desperate to accept a near 1-to-1 ratio of seat sharing with INC.  The Left Front Hindu based has shifted to BJP to stop AITC and the Left Front Muslim bas has shifted to AITC to stop BJP.   For the Left Front to survive it has to project to its former voters that it is a viable party.  Having alliance with the image of the INC vote going to Left Front where it is contesting must be a core part of its plan to regain those voters.  Most likely it will not work.

[jaichind]

At this stage in WB it seems to be

Bengali Hindus: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front (Left front losing votes quickly to BJP)
Non-Bengali Hindus: BJP vs various Hindu belt parties (RJD JD(U) RJD LJP) vs INC (huge BJP edge)
Bengali Muslims: AITC vs Left Front
Non-Bengali Muslims: AIMIM vs INC

AITC is mostly projecting an image of the Bengali party with the collapse the Left Front Bengali Hindu base AITC is casting the BJP as an outsider. 

It will be the Bengali Hindu vote that will decide the election.  This is why the BJP is going into overdrive to lure AITC MLAs into its ranks so it can project itself as a local Bengali party.  The AITC is doing everything possible to stop the BJP.

I suspect in the end there will be de facto local AITC and INC-Left Front understandings to defeat BJP.  Should be enough but polls at this stage that has AITC ahead might be deceptive and might hide a real anti-incumbent wave in which case AITC will be in big trouble.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/assam-assembly-election/newly-formed-anti-caa-parties-to-contest-assam-elections-together-101612426863388.html

"Newly formed anti-CAA parties to contest Assam elections together"

In new anti-CAA parties AJP and RD forms an alliance.  AJP can be viewed as a AGP splinter since both AGP in the early 1980s and AJP in 2019 were formed from Assamese regionalist anti-immigrant AASU.  RD is more of an AAP splinter as RD are mostly formed by those that participated in the 2012-2013 anti-corruption movement that then grew into AAP.

It seems AJP-RD will also try to rope in BPF since BJP will clearly dump BPF for UPPL and SGS in Bodoland.

So the alliance groupings in Assam will mostly look like

BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS vs INC-AIUDF-CPM-CPI-CPI(ML) vs AJP-RD-BPF

Back in 2019 LS elections it was

BJP-AGP-BPF vs INC vs AIUDF (tactical alliance with INC) vs UPPL (in Bodoland) vs SGS (in Bodoland)

In 2016 assembly elections it was

BJP-AGP-BPF vs INC-UPPL vs AIUDF

In 2014 LS elections it was

BJP-UPPL vs INC-BPF vs AGP vs SGS (in Bodoland)

[jaichind]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-farmers-protest-greta-thunberg-threats-rihanna-meena-harris-modi-government/

"Greta Thunberg reiterates support for India farmers' protest despite "threats""

There is no better assembly election gift than this for the BJP.  The farm protests was something was first time since it took power that the Modi regime could not handle and was clearly on the way to backing down in some way.  The only card it played, to no effect, was that the farm protests were inspired and controlled by external enemies of India looking to undermine India's unity to become a superpower.  Now with the standard international woke celebrities jumping publicly on the farm protest bandwagon the BJP now could turn the tables on the farm protesters and the opposition parities.  All this taking place just in time for the assembly elections.

[jaichind]

How I see how the Assam race shaping up in terms of different groups

Assamese Hindu: BJP-AGP vs INC vs AJP-RD
Non-Assamese Hindus: BJP domination vs INC
Assamese Muslims: INC-AIUDF vs AJD-RD vs AGP
Bengali Muslims: INC-AIUDF domination

In Bodoland
Bodos: BJP-UPPL vs BPF
Non-Bodo Hindus: BJP-AGP-SGS vs INC vs AJP-RD
Muslims: INC-AIUDF vs SGS

How Assamese Hindus vote will the the key to victory.  If anti-CAA Assamese Hindus consolidate behind INC or AJD-RD or can tactically vote  then BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS can be kept from a majority.  If not it will be a BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS sweep.  And even if the anti-CAA Assamese Hindus can vote to keep out the BJP the election will then be decided in Bodoland.  If BPF can sweep Bodoland then BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS can still be kept from a majority even if they do well with Assamese Hindus.

Net net, the only bloc capable of a majority is BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS.  It is not clear if they will get there but they do have many paths to get there.