India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/supreme-court-to-examine-whether-to-review-50-cap-on-quota/articleshow/81400895.cms

"Supreme Court to examine whether to review 50% cap on quota"



This is potentially consequential as many states are above the 50% cap on quota including TN.  India allows for quotas for backward castes/Dalits on a caste basis for education and government jobs but the supreme court ruled in 1992 that such quotas cannot exceed 50%.  Now that cap is being reviewed by the Supreme Court.

Over the years many states manipulated the definition of what is backward to ensure that certain castes were eligible for such quota to build a vote bank for the ruling party.  This triggered a phenomenon where every caste is trying to claim they are more backward than other castes much like every group in the woke USA are fighting each other to claim greater intersectional victimhood status.   

In TN in order for AIADMK to rope in PMK added the large Vanniyar caste to the list of castes that are eligible  for quotas which pushed the quota total above 50%.  The AIADMK plan was to get PMK on its side for the election and if the Supreme Court strikes it down as being unconstitutional later that would be the likely DMK government problem to deal with.  Now it seems even that 50% limit could be raised. 

[jaichind]

Kerala UDF alliance seat distribution locked down

INC               91
IMUL             27  (Muslim)
KEC(Joseph)  10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                5
NCK               2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)           1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)    1
BNJD             1 (JD(U) splinter)
AIFB              1
RMP               1 (CPM splinter)

In 2016 it was

INC             87
IMUL           24 (Muslim) (including 1 pro-IMUL independent)
KEC(Mani)   15
JD(U)           7    
RSP              5
KEC(Jacob)   1
CMP(J)         1 (CPM splinter)

Since 2016 KEC(Mani) split into KEC(Mani) which left to join LDF and KEC(Joseph) which stayed in UDF.  JD(U) split between BNJD which stayed in UDF while LJD went over to LDF.  NCP split and splinter NCK went over to UDF while NCP stayed in LDF.  UDF also signed up AIFB  which in other states tend to be aligned with Left Front but like RSP in Kerala they got turned off by CPM's dominate position in LDF and joined up with UDF.  Likewise UDF also signed up RMP which is a CPM splinter just like CMP.

All things equal the splinter of KEC(Mani) and JD(U) and part of those parties going over to LDF weakened UDF but did make seat allocation easier as their rump versions that stayed in UDF (KEC(Joseph) and BNJD) clearly got less seats which meant more seat allocation for INC and IMUL.


Comparison to LDF seat sharing in 2021 and 2016

LDF seat sharing in Kerala

CPM                              85
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1
RSP(L)                            1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        0
JSS                                0

It seems no seats for KEC(Skaria Thomas) or JSS.

Note CPM most likely will allocate some seats to pro-CPM independents as might other LDF parties



In 2016 LDF seat sharing was

CPM                             90  (6 for pro-CPM independents)
CPI                              26   (1 for pro-CPI independent)
JD(S)                             5
NCP                               4
JKC                               4   (KEC(Mani) splinter)
NSC                               3  (Muslim) (1 for pro-NSC independent)
INL                                3  (Muslim)
RSP(L)                           1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
CMP                               1
C(S)                               1
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        1

Since 2016 CMP have merged into CPM, NSC merged in INL.

Compared to 2016 every LDF party had to take cuts to accommodate KEC(Mani) and LJD.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter snap poll on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee alleged attack and injury in WB

Whom do u think will be benefited because of the Nandigram incident?
AITC                44%
BJP                  34%
Left Front-INC  12%

Whom do u trust on the Nandigram incident?
AITC               44%
BJP                 39%

Mostly matched pre-incident partisan alignments in WB.  It seems the incident most likely did not move the needle much in either direction.

[jaichind]

Will Mamata Banerjee get sympathy votes? ( News18 Bangla survey)

Yes 33%
No  67%

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/mar/12/dozens-of-rlsp-leaders-join-rjd-amid-speculation-of-partys-merger-with-jd-u-2275735.html

"Dozens of RLSP leaders join RJD amid speculation of party's merger with JD-U"

Bihar news.  It seems RLSP most likely will be merging back into JD(U) and as a result some anti-JD(U) factions in RLSP are going over to RJD.  This move, just like Nitish Kumar making up with JD(U) splinter HAM led by former JD(U) CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, is part of Nitish Kumar's plan to shore up JD(U) support and power base to deal with a much more power BJP.   There is a real chance that once JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar retires BJP will move in to gobble up JD(U).  Nitish Kumar seems to be making moves to try to preserve JD(U) independence  once he retires.

[jaichind]

In Kerala now the candidates are mostly released for both UDF and LDF one can also tell the number of independents that will contest for each front

Kerala UDF alliance seat distribution  

INC                                 91
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
BNJD                               1 (JD(U) splinter)
AIFB                                1
RMP                                1 (CPM splinter)

The pro-IMUL independent with INC background running in a seat that was allocated to IMUL was a surprise.  It seems IMUL was not able to come up with a winnable candidate in that seat so they nominated a local INC kingpin that will run as a pro-IMUL independent.


LDF seat distribution

CPM                              85 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
 
As usual CPM ran a bunch of pro-CPM independents in seats allocated to it.  They are usually in heavy Christian and Muslim seats  where the CPM brand is not so hot.


NDA alliance breakdown in Kerala still not available.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/cong-denounces-attack-on-cm-distances-itself-from-adhir-remark-7224632/

"Congress denounces ‘attack’ on Mamata, distances itself from Adhir remark"

Once again there is a divergence between national INC and WB INC. The national INC views AITC as a tactical ally against BJP while the WB INC views AITC as its enemy.  So after the local WB INC mocked the alleged attack on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee  the national INC came in to tacitly back her.

It is this sort of divergence that led to the creation of AITC in the first place in 1998.  In the mid 1990s the INC viewed WB Left Front as a tacit ally against BJP while the Mamata Banerjee  faction of the WB INC saw Left Front as the main enemy and saw BJP as its tacit ally against Left Front.  When these two positions could not be reconciled Mamata Banerjee left INC and formed AITC taking most of the WB INC with her.

Funny now how it is AITC is the main enemy of BJP and some factions of the WB INC most likely view BJP as its tacit ally against AITC.

[jaichind]

Kerala NDA seat distribution


BJP                 107
BDJS                25  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1
SJD                   1  (JD(U) splinter)
LJP                    1

There are parts of Kerala which are Tamil speaking so AIADMK got a seat.

It seems in the end KJ(S) led by PC George which is a KEC(Mani) splinter was not accepted into NDA and will run independently

It is also interesting that each of the 3 fronts (UDF LDF NDA) have a JD(U) splinter running in the front.   BNJD for UDF, LJD for LDF, and SJD for NDA.  JD(U) which had a surge of support in Kerala after it broke with BJP in 2013 have since declined into nothing when it re-joined BJP in Bihar and what is left splintered out into different parties.


In 2016 it was

BJP                  98
BDJS                36  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     4  (including 1 pro-KEC(Thomas) independent)
JRS                   1   (Dalit-Tribal)
JSS(RB)             1  JSS splinter which itself was a CPM splinter

JSS(RB) have since merged back into JSS after 2016.  JSS in 2016 actually went back to LDF after a time with NDA although they did not get seat allocations in 2016 mor 2021.
It is clear that BJP's footprint is getting bigger in Kerala relative to its allies which is reflected in the seat sharing arrangements.

[jaichind]

https://www.sentinelassam.com/topheadlines/prafulla-kumar-mahanta-not-to-contest-polls-jayashree-goswami-mahanta-527669

"Prafulla Kumar Mahanta not to contest polls: Jayashree Goswami Mahanta"

In Assam it seems AGP founder and ex-AGP CM and now leader of reactivated AGP(P) Prafulla Kumar Mahanta will not run in elections.  This seems to be due to medical issues.  This pretty much means his political career is over and there is zero chance AGP(P) will go anywhere.  

Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was the hero of 1985 with the Assam Accords and twice AGP CM of Assam (1985-1991) and (1996-2001) but the mismanagement of both terms led to a death spiral of AGP that started in the late 1990s which eventually led to BJP taking over its base and now AGP becoming a junior partner of the BJP.  Prafulla Kumar Mahanta has to take most of the blame of what became AGP.

[jaichind]

In TN, DMK releases election manifesto with 500 promises. Some are

1) Free Tablets
2) Financial assistance of Rs 25,000 to 1 lakh (around $400 to $1500) for people going on pilgrimage to Hindu temples
3) Free local public transport for women
4) Reservation of 75% jobs for people of Tamil origin
5) Fuel Price cut

These types of "everything is going to be free !!! free !!! free !!! free !!!" is typical of promises made by TN parties in elections

Number 4 sounds like a copy of a new Haryana law that says all businesses must hire 90% of their staff below a salary cutoff from those who are domiciled in Haryana. This sort of law will be very expensive to enforce but great for fetching  votes.

Number 2 is funny because DMK was founded as an atheist party back in the 1940s.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/yashwant-sinha-trinamool-congress-bengal-elections-7226583/

"Yashwant Sinha joins TMC, says ‘attack’ on Mamata was tipping point"

Former BJP spokesperson and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha joins AITC.  To be fair he broke with Modi back in 2018 and campaigned against the BJP in the 2019 LS elections already.  The Delhi based media are making a big deal of this because Yashwant Sinha was close to old BJP PM Vajpayee.  Yashwant Sinha actually had a JNP/JD background and only joined the BJP in the early 1990s.

I actually do not thing this will be that impactful.  Yashwant Sinha was always more of a "palace faction" sort of politicians and does not have mass base.  Whatever base he has is more in Jharkhand in his old district of Hazaribagh.  His son Jayant Sinha is still the BJP MP in Hazaribagh.  Despite the media buzz around this I do not thing this will shift one vote in WB.

[jaichind]

Kumudam Reporter Opinion Poll for TN has AIADMK+ with a narrow lead

                    Seats      Vote share
AIADMK+      125            45.2%
DMK+           109            44.1%



Even if true polls at this stage tend to overestimate the ruling party so this type of poll result should imply a narrow DMK+ victory.  In reality I do not see any alternative to a large scale DMK+ victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/congress-serving-malampuzha-plate-bjp-cong-workers-protest-palakkad-145174

"‘Congress serving Malampuzha on a plate to BJP’: Cong workers protest in Palakkad"

In Kearla there seems to be rebellion breaking out in Malampuzha where INC have allocated the seat to JD(U) splinter BNJD.  The local INC claims that BNJD has no base here and that this move is giving away the seat to either CPM(M) or BJP.  It is possible INC might have to take back the seat from BNJD.  Looking at 2016 results in Malampuzha in indicate that INC giving the seat to a weak ally BNJD might be a feature and not a bug

2016 Malampuzha
CPM (LDF)   45.9%
BJP(NDA)    28.9%
INC(UDF)    22.1%
AIADMK        2.0%

This time AIADMK will be backing BJP.  Kerala INC high command most likely fear that if there is a swing against CPM then BJP is more likely to gain from that and even win the seat.  INC has more to fear from a rising BJP that could eat into its Nair base.  So allocating the seat to a weak ally might shift anti-BJP tactical vote to CPM and stop the BJP.  It seems the local INC will have none of this and are pushing back.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/congress-serving-malampuzha-plate-bjp-cong-workers-protest-palakkad-145174

"‘Congress serving Malampuzha on a plate to BJP’: Cong workers protest in Palakkad"

In Kearla there seems to be rebellion breaking out in Malampuzha where INC have allocated the seat to JD(U) splinter BNJD.  The local INC claims that BNJD has no base here and that this move is giving away the seat to either CPM(M) or BJP.  It is possible INC might have to take back the seat from BNJD.  Looking at 2016 results in Malampuzha in indicate that INC giving the seat to a weak ally BNJD might be a feature and not a bug

2016 Malampuzha
CPM (LDF)   45.9%
BJP(NDA)    28.9%
INC(UDF)    22.1%
AIADMK        2.0%

This time AIADMK will be backing BJP.  Kerala INC high command most likely fear that if there is a swing against CPM then BJP is more likely to gain from that and even win the seat.  INC has more to fear from a rising BJP that could eat into its Nair base.  So allocating the seat to a weak ally might shift anti-BJP tactical vote to CPM and stop the BJP.  It seems the local INC will have none of this and are pushing back.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/congress-takes-back-malampuzha-seat-2276345.html

"Congress takes back Malampuzha seat"

In the end after local INC protests and BNJD saying they were not interested in running in Malampuzha, INC took back Malampuzha from BNJD in terms of seat allocation.

As a result the new Kerala UDF seat distribution are

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
AIFB                                1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

[jaichind]

In WB, it seems the BJP is going all out to win.  Several WB BJP MPs elected in 2019 LS elections are now running for WB assembly elections.  I suspect part of this the fact that in TN the NDA faces a big defeat, in Kerala there will be no BJP breakthrough, and in Assam the BJP might lose the state to INC so for BJP to claim they won this election cycle they HAVE to get above 100 MLAs in WB if not win outright.

[jaichind]

In Kerala another example of candidate flip between the two main fronts: Idukki

In the runup to the 2016 assembly elections JKC split from KEC(Mani) and went over to LDF.  Francis George who was an ex-KEC(Mani) MP was part of the JKC and contested in 2016 on the JKC ticket against KEC(Mani) candidate Roshy Augustine in Idukki. 

The 2016 Idukki result was

Roshy Augustine (KEC(Mani))(UDF)    42.86%
Francis George (JKC)(LDF)                36.26%
BDJS                                               19.40%

After the 2016 assembly elections, KEC(Mani) split with a KEC(Joseph) faction being formed.  KEC(Mani) went over to LDF and KEC(Joseph) faction staying in UDF. Even though most key leaders/MLAs in KEC(Mani) went over to KEC(Joseph) Roshy Augustine went with KEC(Mani) and shifted over to LDF.  Once it is clear that LDP will allocate the Idukki seat to Roshy Augustine of KEC(Mani), Francis George left JKC and joined KEC(Joseph) and was nominated by UDF to run in Idukki .

So 2021 Idukki  will be

Roshy Augustine (KEC(Mani))(LDF)   
Francis George (KEC(Joseph))(UDF)             
BDJS                                               

with the two main candidates the same but which alliance they are running from flipped. 

[jaichind]

WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee back on the campaign trail in a wheelchair.  An ECI report indicate that the incident that led to her injury seems to be an ancient and not an attack.  AITC is spinning it as ECI is under the control of the BJP.

[jaichind]

AP civic elections has YRSCP clean sweep with over 80% of the seats won with the anti-YRSCP split between TDP and JS-BJP.  YRSCP pretty much getting the majority in all cities and corporations. INC is nowhere on the map as YSRCP continues to be "the real Congress" in AP.  Civic elections usually go the way of the ruling party but this type of landslide is quite impressive.

[jaichind]

Updated NDA seat distribution after last minute talks

BJP                  115
BDJS                 19  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)      2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1

Kerala NDA seat distribution


BJP                 107
BDJS                25  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1
SJD                   1  (JD(U) splinter)
LJP                    1

There are parts of Kerala which are Tamil speaking so AIADMK got a seat.

It seems in the end KJ(S) led by PC George which is a KEC(Mani) splinter was not accepted into NDA and will run independently

It is also interesting that each of the 3 fronts (UDF LDF NDA) have a JD(U) splinter running in the front.   BNJD for UDF, LJD for LDF, and SJD for NDA.  JD(U) which had a surge of support in Kerala after it broke with BJP in 2013 have since declined into nothing when it re-joined BJP in Bihar and what is left splintered out into different parties.


In 2016 it was

BJP                  98
BDJS                36  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     4  (including 1 pro-KEC(Thomas) independent)
JRS                   1   (Dalit-Tribal)
JSS(RB)             1  JSS splinter which itself was a CPM splinter

JSS(RB) have since merged back into JSS after 2016.  JSS in 2016 actually went back to LDF after a time with NDA although they did not get seat allocations in 2016 mor 2021.
It is clear that BJP's footprint is getting bigger in Kerala relative to its allies which is reflected in the seat sharing arrangements.

[jaichind]

In addition of the irony of AITC leaving INC in 1998 in order to ally with BJP only to view BJP as its main enemy there is the irony of AITC dropping BJP for INC in the run up to the 2011 WB assembly elections for fear that BJP was deadweight and would hold back AITC from beating Left Front.  Now the BJP is on the verge of potentially beating AITC.

Also if BJP had planned for AITC dropping BJP and for INC to defeat Left Front in 2011 is would be a true 3-D chess move.  The Left Front by the early 2000s had actually become a fairly conservative  force versus a radical populist AITC.  As a result the Left Front being in power froze the Upper Caste Hindu vote in place.  The defeat of the Left Front in 2011 and persecution of Left Front cadres by the incoming AITC militants after 2011 actually paved the way of the melting away of the Left Front Hindu vote which then shifted to the BJP over time. So BJP losing AITC as an ally in 2008 and getting crushed in 2009 WB LS and 2011 WB assembly elections was really taking one step back in order to take five steps forward.

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/cong-denounces-attack-on-cm-distances-itself-from-adhir-remark-7224632/

"Congress denounces ‘attack’ on Mamata, distances itself from Adhir remark"

Once again there is a divergence between national INC and WB INC. The national INC views AITC as a tactical ally against BJP while the WB INC views AITC as its enemy.  So after the local WB INC mocked the alleged attack on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee  the national INC came in to tacitly back her.

It is this sort of divergence that led to the creation of AITC in the first place in 1998.  In the mid 1990s the INC viewed WB Left Front as a tacit ally against BJP while the Mamata Banerjee  faction of the WB INC saw Left Front as the main enemy and saw BJP as its tacit ally against Left Front.  When these two positions could not be reconciled Mamata Banerjee left INC and formed AITC taking most of the WB INC with her.

Funny now how it is AITC is the main enemy of BJP and some factions of the WB INC most likely view BJP as its tacit ally against AITC.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/south/tamil-nadu-polls-vijayakant-s-dmdk-allies-with-ammk-to-contest-60-seats-962006.html

"Tamil Nadu polls: Vijayakant’s DMDK allies with AMMK to contest 60 seats"

DMDK joins AMMK front.  For now it seems the AMMK+ front seat distribution will be

AMMK      161
DMDK        60
SDPI           6   (radical Islam)
AIMIM         3   (Muslim)
GMK            1   (Yadav caste)
MSS            1   (Agamudayar caste)
VTPK           1   (Dalit)
MAK            1   (Dalit)


I am pretty sure that AMMK will contest more seats that this since this will leave 100 seats uncontested.    I am surprised that DMDK accepted only 60 seats when its vote base is most likely around half of AMMK vote base.  It sort of shows how desperate DMDK is.   An AMMK-DMDK alliance could fetch around 10% of the vote.  

My gut feeling is that the vote share would be something like

DMK+       45%
AIADMK+  35%
AMMK+     10%
MNM+         5%

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/tamil-nadu-assembly-polls-2021/story/tamil-nadu-polls-free-gas-cylinders-key-promises-aiadmk-manifesto-1779267-2021-03-14

"Tamil Nadu polls: Free gas cylinders, loan waiver among key promises in AIADMK manifesto"

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/tamil-nadu-assembly-polls-2021/story/in-manifesto-aiadmk-promises-to-make-bjp-rethink-caa-ally-says-law-will-not-be-scrapped-1779337-2021-03-15

"In manifesto, AIADMK promises to make Centre rethink CAA, BJP says law will not be scrapped"

AIADMK manifesto has its own list of freebies like free cooking gas cylinders, student loan waivers,  free cable TV (AIADMK channel of course), rise in pensions, expansion of free lunch program for schools etc etc. 

AIADMK also is looking to get Muslim votes by coming out against CAA which clearly have angered AIADMK ally BJP.

[jaichind]

AP Civic election vote share

YSRCP     52.6%
TDP         30.7%
JS-BJP       7.1% (JS 4.7% BJP 2.4%
CPM          0.8%
CPI           0.8%
INC           0.6%



Looks like INC is dead in AP.  Even if YSRCP where to mess up it would be TDP JS or even BJP that will gain from it.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll for WB

                            Seats       Vote share
AITC                      158            43.4%
BJP                        106            38.4%
Left Front-INC-ISF    27            12.7%
Others                      4              5.5%

Pretty much same as same poll in late Feb with some polarization toward AITC and BJP despite Left Front-INC roping in ISF

My main problem here is the seat share gap should be greater with a 5% vote share gap.  I think ABP C-Voter is hedging.




Who Will win Next Assembly Elections?

AITC                     42%
BJP                       39%
Left Front-INC-ISF 12%

Late Feb poll results from same pollster

ABP poll for WB

                          Seats     Vote share
AITC                   156            43%
BJP                     100            38%
INC-Left Front       35            13%




I would say at this stage the poll result should be a floor for the BJP. AITC has to hope that some of the anti-AITC anti-incumbency vote shifts toward INC-Left Front

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/video/india/bsp-to-contest-assembly-polls-in-up-alone-mayawati-2347988.html

"BSP to contest Assembly polls in UP alone: Mayawati"

So in UP next years most likely it will be BJP vs SP-RLD vs BSP vs INC.  It seems very likely now that BJP will return to power which is the first time since 1985 that a ruling party returned to power in UP.  On the other hand most likely the size of BJP's majority will diminish.