India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/chhattisgarh-encounter-naxal-maoists-tarrem-sukma-bijapur-cobra-crpf-jawans-missing-1786930-2021-04-04

"Chhattisgarh: 22 jawans killed, 31 injured in deadly encounter with Naxals on Sukma-Bijapur border"

In Chhattisgarh, large Maoist Naxal rebel ambush kills large number of Indian security forces.

All things equal in urban areas this will increase the salience of national security issues will help the BJP in assembly elections.

[jaichind]

WB phase 3 info (this is an AITC stronghold)

In 2016 assembly it was AITC 29 Left Front-INC 2
In 2019 LS assembly segments it was AITC 29 BJP 2

[jaichind]

Assam phase 3 info.  It is in this phase UPA expects to make a lot of gains.

[jaichind]

NDTV report irregularities in Assam in phase 2 voting

[jaichind]

Politicalbabba has some nice charts on Assam

Demographic breakup of Assam


Bengali Muslims


Assamese Muslims


Bengali Hindus


Assamese Hindus


BJP also has an edge with Dalits and non-Bodo Tribals

This time around the entire Muslim vote will consolidate around UPA.  Bengali Hindus will completely consolidate around NDA.  How Assamese Hindus and Bodo split will decide this election.

[jaichind]

Spick Media final projection for TN is

                          Seats       Vote share
DMK-INC+             145          42.59%
AIADMK-BJP+          60          33.07%
AMMK+                     4          10.28%
MNM+                       1           5.92%
NTK                          0            4.08%  (Tamil Nationalist)
Others                      0            4.06%
Tossups                   24

A vote share gap of 9% between DMK+ and AIADMK+ should mean DMK+ will get around 190 seats or so.

Spick Media poll on TN

                          Seats       Vote share
DMK-INC+             158          42.60%
AIADMK-BJP+          74          34.04%
AMMK+                     2          10.31%
NMN                          0           5.87%
NTK                          0            4.85%  (Tamil Nationalist)
Others                      0            2.51%

A vote share gap of around 6%-7% should imply a DMK-INC+ seat count of around 180 so 158 is an underestimate based on the vote share gap

Seats by party

UPA
DMK          118
INC             22
VCK              5
CPI               3
CPM              3
IMUL             3

NDA
AIADMK       62
PMK              9
BJP               3

INC at 22 is projected to have the best strike rate as it is only contesting 25 seats.  On the NDA side PMK at 9 seats out of 23 contested puts its strike rate at well above the rest of NDA.

[jaichind]

Turnout in TN, Kerala, Puducherry as of 8pm.  Most likely when the numbers are all in Kerala and Puducherry will be same as 2016 and Kerala will have a slight decline in turnout relative to 2016.


Phase 3 turnout in Assam and WB.  When all the numbers are in most likely Assam will match 2016 turnout while WB will be lower than 2016.  Given phase 3 is suppose to be an AITC stronghold in WB this is not a positive sign for AITC.

[eos]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

[jaichind]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

Sorry he did not post any charts for ST (tribal) or SC (Dalits).  I am not sure how he categorized tea garden workers.  They are most Hindi speaking tribal but many do not have ST status.   Anyway I would expect SC to lean INC but now lean BJP while ST was mostly split between INC BJP and various tribal parties but now mostly lean BJP.

[jaichind]

HP Municipal elections for the 4 top cities.

In aggregate it ended up being

INC    29
BJP    28
Ind      7

Overall these elections tend to lean the ruling party. If so then INC seems to be favorites to regain HP assembly in 2023.  Of course since 1990 every ruling party in HP has been defeated for re-election and it seems 2023 will continue that trend. 

[jaichind]

For WB, someone computed the % of the VAP that are Muslim for each phase

30 seats Phase 1    8%  
30 seats Phase 2  12%  
31 seats Phase 3  29%
44 seats Phase 4  16%
45 seats Phase 5  18%
43 seats Phase 6  29%
36 seats Phase 7  35%
35 seats Phase 8  39%

The BJP are stronger in Phase 1 2 and 7 8.  Phase 1 and 2 because with a smaller Muslim population the Hindu consolidation play is more likely to give you returns.  Phase 7 and 8 because the greater % of Muslims creates a greater "threat" to Hindus who are more likely to consolidate behind BJP in addition to likely split of the Muslim vote between AITC and INC-ISF. (Left Front are fairly weak in Northern WB.)

The experience of UP elections is that the BJP does he best when the Muslim vote is around 30%-35%.  It is low enough for Hindu consolidation to deliver victory but high enough to create a threat to the Hindu population to give them a reason to consolidate behind BJP.   

If we go with the UP experience then the BJP has more to worry about underperforming in Phase 1 and 2 versus Phase 7 and 8.

[eos]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

Sorry he did not post any charts for ST (tribal) or SC (Dalits).  I am not sure how he categorized tea garden workers.  They are most Hindi speaking tribal but many do not have ST status.   Anyway I would expect SC to lean INC but now lean BJP while ST was mostly split between INC BJP and various tribal parties but now mostly lean BJP.

Why do tribals lean BJP? Is it simply because the BJP is also in power in centre, thus offering the clearest route to accessing power and resources?

I also remember the BJP attempted to woo the tribals after they lost ground due to CAA in 2019. They made various promises to recognise Assam as a "tribal state", and give ST status to many communities who assimilated into Assamese Hinduism and are otherwise counted as Assamese Hindu. If this happens, the share of the ST population will greatly increase. However, there has been no development so far.

[eos]

HP Municipal elections for the 4 top cities.

In aggregate it ended up being

INC    29
BJP    28
Ind      7

Overall these elections tend to lean the ruling party. If so then INC seems to be favorites to regain HP assembly in 2023.  Of course since 1990 every ruling party in HP has been defeated for re-election and it seems 2023 will continue that trend. 

I thought the HP elections are due by October 2022?

The list of states going into elections in 2022:
By Feb/March 2022: Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur
By October 2022: Himachal Pradesh
By December 2022: Gujarat

Also possible elections in JK.

Any other early predictions?

[jaichind]

HP Municipal elections for the 4 top cities.

In aggregate it ended up being

INC    29
BJP    28
Ind      7

Overall these elections tend to lean the ruling party. If so then INC seems to be favorites to regain HP assembly in 2023.  Of course since 1990 every ruling party in HP has been defeated for re-election and it seems 2023 will continue that trend. 

I thought the HP elections are due by October 2022?

The list of states going into elections in 2022:
By Feb/March 2022: Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur
By October 2022: Himachal Pradesh
By December 2022: Gujarat

Also possible elections in JK.

Any other early predictions?

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

[jaichind]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

Sorry he did not post any charts for ST (tribal) or SC (Dalits).  I am not sure how he categorized tea garden workers.  They are most Hindi speaking tribal but many do not have ST status.   Anyway I would expect SC to lean INC but now lean BJP while ST was mostly split between INC BJP and various tribal parties but now mostly lean BJP.

Why do tribals lean BJP? Is it simply because the BJP is also in power in centre, thus offering the clearest route to accessing power and resources?

I also remember the BJP attempted to woo the tribals after they lost ground due to CAA in 2019. They made various promises to recognise Assam as a "tribal state", and give ST status to many communities who assimilated into Assamese Hinduism and are otherwise counted as Assamese Hindu. If this happens, the share of the ST population will greatly increase. However, there has been no development so far.

BJP has been strong with tribals in places like Assam, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh since the 1990s.  The idea is because BJP believes in small states (that is from the BJS days.)  BJS/BJP believes small states means that politics will shift toward national parties  and away from regional parties.  BJS/BJP believes that this will help created a power centralized Hindu nationalist India.  Anyway this position actually aligns with tribals in places like Assam, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh because the tribal there were for the creation of their own separate tribal plurality state (which for Jharkhand and  Chhattisgarh did take place.)   Since BJP happened to align with the tribal leader goals there on this issue they gravitated to BJP fairly early.

Of course BJP becoming the natural ruling party of India since 2014 meant the NE fell to BJP due to issues of federal subsidies which also helps in Assam.  In Assam tribal areas it is historically 3 way battle between BJP INC and some local tribal/left party.  In the last few cycles it is going more heavy BJP due toe the federal subsidy factor.   But the BJP was already strong there.

[eos]

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

Punjab: what of recent opinion polls indicating strong performance by AAP?

Uttrakhand: I think I also saw a recent opinion poll indicating a surprisingly good performance by AAP.

UP: is an alliance of SP, BSP and INC possible? If so, could it also backfire?

Gujarat: Didn't the AAP do well in the recent panchayat or municipal elections? I can't remember exactly. Can they further spoil the INC's chances?

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/gifts-for-voters-continue-to-pour-in/articleshow/81967874.cms

"Tamil Nadu elections: ‘Gifts’ for voters continue to pour in"

Just like previous TN elections the level of vote buying this time around is quite high.

[jaichind]

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

Punjab: what of recent opinion polls indicating strong performance by AAP?

Uttrakhand: I think I also saw a recent opinion poll indicating a surprisingly good performance by AAP.

UP: is an alliance of SP, BSP and INC possible? If so, could it also backfire?

Gujarat: Didn't the AAP do well in the recent panchayat or municipal elections? I can't remember exactly. Can they further spoil the INC's chances?

Punjab: you make a good point in the sense that AAP emerge as the main alternative to INC then INC will be in danger.  I guess my sense is that polling at this stage overestimates both INC and AAP and underestimates SAD.  But most likely a SAD revival will take much more votes from AAP than INC letting in INC.  Note in Punjab it is INC vs BJP in Hindu areas and INC vs SAD vs AAP in Sikh areas.  It is clear INC will sweep Hindu areas given the BJP brand in Punjab, even with Hindus, and a 3 way battle in Sikh areas I suspect might still break for INC.  Even if it ends up being even honors between INC SAD and APP the INC still ends up with the edge overall.

Uttrakhand: AAP support might reach high single digits but in the end it will be BJP vs INC.  And this time around the state will lean INC.

UP: I think a SP-BSP alliance could potential defeat BJP.  But I think the BSP dalit base is not what it used to be where it is losing support to both BJP and Bhim Army.  At this stage Mayawati will prioritize keeping its Dalit vote intact than defeating the BJP.   BJP's main danger are that in East UP Thakur are expanding their power at the local level and that could trigger anti-Thakur voting which will hurt the BJP.

Gujarat: I think AAP at this stage is eating into the INC vote.  But that has more to do with the intra-election meltdown of INC which somehow always manages to get into fighting shape right  before an election.  I suspect good AAP performance at this stage is more about INC weakness which will reverse itself as 2022 elections approach.

[jaichind]

In Assam the most recent news points to a likely close result:

1) https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-asssembly-election-2021-candidates-of-congress-alliance-flown-to-jaipur-resort-for-safekeeping-2409905
"Assam Conrgess Alliance Candidates Flown To Jaipur Resort For Safekeeping"
INC is arranging for all candidates of INC AIUDF and BPF to be moved to INC ruled Rajasthan resorts to avoid them from being poached between now and vote counting day.

2) https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/grand-alliance-fancies-its-chances-in-assam-236513
"Grand alliance fancies its chances in Assam"  
There is a view that INC got its alliance math right this time around.  It also points out that INC has several CM candidates but each one of them have some sort of deficiency (mostly demographic)

3) https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/assam-assembly-election/from-no-contest-to-likely-winners-how-congress-turned-around-its-assam-campaign-101617882815122.html
"From no contest to likely winners, how Congress turned around its Assam campaign"
BJP sources seems to indicate that they no longer expect a landslide victory they thought was likely 3 months ago but now expect NDA to win 65-72 seats which would be a narrow victory.  

4) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/results-of-12-bodoland-seats-could-swing-assam-election/articleshow/81983681.cms
"Results of 12 Bodoland seats could swing Assam election"
Sort of takes my view that the Assam election will be close and that the race will be determined by who is able to sweep Bodoland (BPF or UPPL-BJP) with BFP counting on the AIUDF Muslim vote add to its Bodo base to win while BJP counting on non-Bodo Hindus to add to the UPPL-BJP Bodo base to win.

[jaichind]

WB phase 4 info. This phase is a phase of relative AITC strength.

[jaichind]

https://thefederal.com/tamilnadu-elections-2021/male-voters-in-tn-outnumber-females-for-first-time-in-15-years/

"Male voters in TN outnumber females for first time in 15 years"

AIADMK under Jayalalitha always outperformed with women voters.  In the first TN assembly election without Jayalalitha since 1984 women turnout fell.  Fairly negative sign for AIADMK.

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraphindia.com/west-bengal/west-bengal-assembly-elections-2021-hill-tmc-chooses-bimal-gurung-over-binay-tamang/cid/1811486

"Bengal Polls 2021: Hill TMC chooses Bimal over Binay"

Sort of late, but in the 3 Gorkha AITC ally GJM had split into Gurung and Tamang factions.  Both factions is running a candidate in all 3 seats.    After some dithering AITC finally came out to back the Gurung faction.  Most likely this split will throw these 3 seats to the BJP where an undivided GJM with AITC support was on course to win these 3 seats.  GJM was a BJP ally in 2016 but switched over to AITC this time around.    The BJP has the support of GJM rival GNLF and CPRM and now seems like to be in the running to win these 3 seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tripura-autonomous-district-council-polls-ruling-bjp-ally-set-for-shock-defeat-in-tripura-tribal-council-polls-2410603

"Ruling BJP, Ally Suffer Shock Defeat In Tripura Tribal Council Polls"

In Tripura the ruling BJP-IPFT was defeated in the critical Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections.  

Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council or TTAADC is the tribal parts of Tripura which is now majority Bengali Hindu.  


BJP-IPFT as the ruling bloc in the state was was expected to win but was defeated by the new TIPRA alliance led by the former head of Tripura INC who quit INC due to INC not being hardline enough against CAA.  TIPRA won based on an anti-CAA line and consolidating the entire anti-BJP-IPFT vote.

TIPRA-INPT     18
BJP-IPFT          9
Ind.                 1
Left Front-INC  0



Back in 2015 when Left Front was still the ruling bloc in Tripura the Left Front swept the  TTAADC elections.  Since then the BJP-IPFT has taken over the entire Tripura INC vote for a shock victory in 2018 Tripura assembly elections.

This time around the tribal vote are very concerned about CAA.  Tripura used to be majority tribal but due to migration of Bengali Hindus from WB and Bangladesh last few decades has become a minority in Tripura.  The CAA has triggered an anti-CAA fusion in the tribal vote against the BJP.  The INC, also looking not to lose the Bengali Hindu vote, was not able to take a hardline position which led to the tribal background leader of the Tripura INC to bolt and create his own anti-CAA splinter which went on to sweep the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council polls.

This does pose an challenge for BJP-IPFT  in 2023.  If the Left Front or INC is able to main gains in the Bengali Hindu vote and with BJP-IPFT losing the tribal vote due toe CAA BJP-IPFT might be in trouble in the 2023 Tripura assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/second-virus-wave-overwhelms-india-hospitals-as-shots-run-low

"India’s Hospitals Swamped By Second Virus Wave as Shots Run Low"

Looks like India is in the middle of another COVID-19 surge.  Places like Maharashtra and Delhi are already going into lockdown.  It seems MP is doing the same.  So far this wave has not hit the assembly election states until after the voted.  Kerala had a surge right after it voted.  WB which is still voting does not seem to be hit so far. 

[jaichind]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS