India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Crowdwisdom poll of polls so far for WB has sight BJP edge



Traditionally MSM posters have AITC ahead but prediction markets and non-MSM pollsters have BJP ahead

[jaichind]

Assam election phase map



Upper Assam first
Tribal/Bengali Hindu heavy areas next
Lower Assam last

[jaichind]

https://newslivetv.com/bjp-agp-plan-exchange-of-constituencies-to-win-more-seats-in-assam/

In  Assam it seems the BJP and AGP are looking into swapping seats to deal with the INC-AIUDF alliance threat.  It seems it is mostly about the community background of the existing BJP and AGP MLAs.  Some are better suited to win in a multi-polar battle and some are better suited to win in a polarized battle.  It seems BJP, and AGP, are leaving no stone unturned to try to win.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/mamata-asks-if-poll-dates-set-on-advice-of-pm-amit-shah-7206660/

"Mamata asks if poll dates set on advice of PM, Amit Shah"

AITC CM Mamata Banerjee indicates that she suspects the 8 phased election in WB as decided by ECI was done on behest of BJP.  The basic idea is that in such an assembly race the main weakness of the BJP is the lack of a local face and will require Modi to lift the BJP to vote share it got in 2019 LS elections.  In an 8 phase election Modi will have more time to target each sub region one to overcome the CM face edge that AITC will clearly have.

[jaichind]

A bunch of Kerala polls has LDF with a narrow edge over UDF

Spick & MCV Network has it at

          Seats  Vote share
LDF      85        42.23%
UDF     53         35.27%
NDA      2         17.05%




Asianet News-C Fore has it at

LDF       75
UDF      61
NDA       4


Kerala Poll tracker (24 News) has it at

LDF      73
UDF     66
NDA      1
 

At this stage if the lead of the incumbent bloc over the opposition bloc is small I will have to give the opposition bloc and advantage.  So I still expect UDF to win narrowly.  I guess a perfect storm of KEC(M) shifting Christian votes from UDF to LDF plus a strong BJP performance with pro-UDF Nairs might give LDF a narrow victory.

[jaichind]

ABP poll in Assam

              Seats    Vote share
NDA          72         43.8%
UPA           47        41.4%
BPF             4          1.1%
Others         3       13.3%



Of course latest news already make the poll obsolete with BPF and RJD joining INC-AIUDF-Left-AGM alliance.

http://www.millenniumpost.in/nation/cong-led-grand-alliance-expanded-in-assam-with-inclusion-of-bpf-rjd-433003

"Cong-led Grand Alliance expanded in Assam with inclusion of BPF, RJD"

BPF was expected to join AJD-RD alliance but last minute decided to join up with INC-AIUDF front.  The battle in Bodoland of BPF-INC-AIUDF vs UPPL-BJP-GSP will be epic !!!  RJD coming aboard should help INC-AIUDF to pull in Non-Assamese Hindu voters.  All this will only work for INC if they can get past their own factional bickering and ego and allocate the right seats to BPF RJD and other allies to take the most advantage of the local demographic patterns.  

The UPA seat sharing plan has to be, by seat type:

Assamese Hindus and Muslims - INC
Bengali Hindus - INC (although BJP will most likely sweep here)
Non-Assamese Muslims - AIUDF
Tribals - Left
Bodo - BPF
Hindi Hindus - RJD

to have a chance to stop the BJP juggernaut.

[jaichind]

ABP poll for WB

                          Seats     Vote share
AITC                   156            43%
BJP                     100            38%
INC-Left Front       35            13%




I would say at this stage the poll result should be a floor for the BJP. AITC has to hope that some of the anti-AITC anti-incumbency vote shifts toward INC-Left Front

[jaichind]

ABP poll for TN

                        Seat    Vote share
DMK-INC+          158         41.0%
AIADMK-BJP+       62         28.6%
MNM                     4           8.3%
AMMK                   3           6.9%
Others                  7         14.8%




I am skeptical of this poll.  Most seats in TN tend to swing together so a 12%+ vote share lead by UPA over NDA should produce a seat landslide of massive proportions with UPA getting close to 200 seats.  Also given the polarization between DMK and AIADMK I am not sure who outside of MNM and AMMK can win 7 seats.

[jaichind]

ABP Kerala poll

          Seats    Vote share
LDF       87            40%
UDF      51            33%
NDA       1            13%
Ohers     1            15%




Again, I am skeptical.  Given the strong 3 way polarization in Kerala there is no way "Others" can win 15% of the vote.  5% tops in my view and more like 3%.  I suspect this poll has a lot of "hidden" UDF voters and that this race is neck-to-neck if not advantage UDF.

[jaichind]

ABP Puducherry poll has

          Seats        Vote share
NDA      19                46%
UPA       10                33%
Others     1

I am pretty sure if the seat share gap between the two fronts are 13% the NDA will completely sweep the polls with UPA having less than 5 seats.  I suspect that is where we are headed.

[jaichind]

https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/assembly-elections-2021-muti-phased-elections-in-bengal-and-assam-may-tip-poll-scales

"Bengal & Assam Elections: Can Polling Schedule Tilt The Scales?"

Points out that Upper Assam voting first helps BJP.  Upper Assam is where the INC-AIUDF bloc is the weakest and need more time to mobilize their respective bases to fuse and take on the stronger BJP-AGP combine.  Upper Assam voting first means INC-AIUDF will have less time to prepare helping the BJP-AGP.

In WB, many phases means that Modi can be deployed a phase at a time helps BJP in addition to the fast that most WB phases vote AFTER other states have voted which means Modi can concentrate on WB when the other states have been done voting.  Also Mamata Banerjee's seat in Nandigram will vote in the second phase which reduces hype around it and would reduce him impact on the election since her seat have voted already when campaigning is still going on the most of WB.

The reason why there are multiphases in some states and not other has to do with security.  In the South Maoist Naxalite or various tribal insurgent groups are not active ergo voting can just take place in one day.  In the North, Maoist Naxalite rebels and other tribal insurgent groups are often active usually call for a boycott of polls.  Sometimes they launch attacks on voting stations which requires large scale security forces to be present in the voting booths.  Given limited security staff the way to handle this is to have voting take place in phases.  WB and Assam have their share of Naxalite rebels and tribal insurgents (the village Naxalbari where the first Naxalite uprising took place in 1967 is in WB) so voting in multiphases are justified.

[jaichind]

ABP poll show that even though more people intend to vote AITC than BJP, more voters think BJP will win than AITC


Similar story in Assam.  NDA and UPA might be neck-to-neck in terms of vote share but ABP poll show that many more think BJP will win


In Kerala it is pretty consistent between who will win and voting intentions


Usually "who will win" questions tend to favor the incumbent.  If so UPA in Assam and Kerala can take hear that they are still in the race.  AITC should be really worried about a BJP upset victory.

[jaichind]

Democracy Times poll for Kerala

LDF   71
UDF  67
NDA   2



This sort of poll result implies an UDF victory.

[jaichind]

I already posted the election histories of TN, Kerala and WB in

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222953.0

So I will only write up the election history of Assam.  Before I do it is still interesting to look at the complete collapse Left Front and INC in WB relative to 2004.

In WB, before 1998 it was really Left Front vs INC.  In 1998 Mamata Banerjee split AITC from INC due to her concern that INC high command was too close to Left Front at the center and not focused taking down Left Front.  While AITC took with it most of the INC base even with an alliance with the BJP AITC-BJP faired poorly against Left Front.  But then then INC and Left Front at the center broke in 2008 AITC allied with INC and was able to defeat Left Front in 2009 LS and 2011 assembly elections.  The fall of the Left Front meant that over time most of the Left Front vote migrated to BJP creating the AITC vs BJP situation today.

The vote share collapse of Left Front since 2004 is quite breath breaking.



2004 LS
                   Seats    Vote share     LS assembly lead
AITC-BJP          1         29.11%             35                   (AITC 21.04%, BJP 8.06%)
Left Front       35         50.72%           223
INC+               6         15.15%             35

2006 Assembly
                   Seats    Vote share
AITC-BJP        32         29.41%  (AITC 26.64%, BJP 1.93%)
Left Front     235         50.18%
INC+             24         15.78%

2009 LS
                   Seats    Vote share    LS assembly lead
AITC-INC       26         45.67%           189                      (AITC 31.18%. INC 13.45%)
Left Front       15        43.30%             99
BJP                 1          6.14%               5                      (due to Gorkha based GJM support)

2011 assembly
                   Seats    Vote share
AITC-INC      226        48.08%  (AITC 38.93%. INC 9.09%)
Left Front       62        41.05%
BJP+               4          4.92%  (all 4 elected are from Gorkha based GJM)

2014 LS      
                   Seats    Vote share   LS assembly lead
AITC              34         39.79%             214
Left Front         2         29.94%              28
BJP                  2         17.02%              24
INC                  4          9.69%               28

2016 assembly
                   Seats    Vote share
AITC+          211        45.71%
Left Front       33        27.64% (tactical alliance with INC)
INC               44        12.52% (tactical alliance with Left Front)
BJP+               6         10.78%

2019 LS
                  Seats    Vote share    LS assembly lead
AITC             22         43.69%           164
Left Front       0           7.54%               0
BJP+            18         40.64%           121
INC                2           5.67%              9

This time around INC and Left Front will have a full alliance but it is clear now that AITC is the new INC and BJP is the new Left Front and WB is moving in a AITC-BJP bipolar direction.

[jaichind]

Gujarat Local Body Elections - massive sweep for BJP



Back in 2015 the traditionally pro-BJP Patel vote went INC giving a jolt to the BJP as the Muslim vote consolidated around the INC as well.  This time the Muslim vote is shifting to AIMIM and the Patel vote is shifting to AAP leading to a BJP landslide.

The 2015 local body election victory for INC pointed to a possible INC upset in the 2017 Gujarat assembly election where the INC did overperform.  It seems now that the BJP is headed to an easy 2022 victory in Gujarat assembly election which would be its 7th in a row in Gujarat.

[jaichind]

History of Assam elections

Assam is unique in India as it is considered a core state but was never a part of the two  Indian super empires in history (Maurya Empire and Tughlaq Delhi Sultanate).  Instead Assam is based on the Ahom Empire which was only absorbed into British India in the early 1820s.



Modern Assam is really made up of the old Ahom Empire plus southern districts which are either tribal or populated by Bengali Hindus and Muslims.  Due to immigration parts of Lower Assam also now have a sizable Bengali Muslim population while Upper Assam are mostly Assamese Hindus.  Also parts of Lower Assam are dominated by the Bodos, a tribal group that forms the plurality although not majority of what is the now autonomous  BTC.





Assam in many ways until 1980 was like a lot of other Northern Indian states where the Assamese elite aligned with the INC along with Muslims and even non-Assamese Hindus.  The Pakistan Civil War of 1970-1971 and the creation of Bangladesh saw large Hindu and Muslim Bengali migration into Assam.  This added to the Assamese sense of insecurity as this was another wave on top of other waves of Bengali migration into Assam over the decades.

Things came to a ahead after the 1980 LS elections where INC swept Assam like they swept the rest of India.  It was revealed after the election that the voter rolls had a lot of illegal Bengali Muslims migrants.  This trigged mass Assamese Hindu protests in what is later called "The Assam Movement".  This movement called for the boycott of the 1982 assembly elections which INC swept due to most Assamese Hindus sitting out the election and was clearly considered illegitimate by the Assamese Hindus which organized around the ASSU which was an nativist and anti-immigrant organization focused on expelling illegal immigrates that entered into Assam after 1971.   As a result the state became ungovernable.  The 1984 LS elections were not held in Assam due to prolonged violence related to the AASU protests.  In response the Bengali Muslims organized under UMFA to fight back which only added to tensions.

In 1985 Rahul Gandhi and AGP, the political arm of AASU, reached an accord  which committed to AGP participating in the political process in return for the center committing to removing from voter rolls illegal immigrations that moved into Assam after 1971 and grandfathered all immigrants legal or illegal before 1971.

As a result in 1985 both LS and assembly elections were held which AGP won due to the split of the INC vote to both AGP, UMFA, various splinter and rebels while there was a consolidation of the Assamese Hindus behind AGP.

1985 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        126               25               23.34%
 
INC rebels                       2                 4.26%

UMFA         68               17               11.52%

ICS           72                 4                 3.17%  (INC splinter)

JNP           87                 0                 1.44%

BJP           37                 0                 1.07%

AGP        121               70                38.61%

CPM          39                2                  4.48%

CPI           21                0                  1.21%

PTA          28                 3                  3.62% (Tribal)

ASDC         6                 1                  0.78% (Tribal Left)

UTNLF        2                 1                  0.43% (Bodo)


1985 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          14                 4               23.99%
 
UMFA           6                 1              10.91%

ICS              8                 1                6.13%  (INC splinter)

JNP            10                 0                3.55%

BJP             2                  0                0.37%

AGP          12                  7               34.82%

CPM           2                  0                 3.43%

CPI            1                  0                 1.38%

PTA            3                 1                  4.15% (Tribal)

ASDC          1                0                  1.17% (Tribal Left)

UTNLF         1                0                  0.66% (Bodo)

AGP consolidated the Assamese Hindus and Assamese Muslims to sweep part of Lower Assam and almost all of Upper Assam won a majority and AASU leader and founder of AGP Prafulla Kumar Mahanta at age 33 became AGP CM of Assam.

[jaichind]

After Prafulla Kumar Mahanta took over as AGP CM of Assam they acted to execute on the Assam Accord and worked on purging the voter rolls of illegal immigrants.  The level efficiency was terrible for this new inexperienced admiration.  Corruption was a major problem with this process and other aspects of governance.  As a result Assam was not able to participate in the 1989 LS election due to vote rolls not being ready.  In the end the number of illegal immigrates removed from voter rolls fell far short of what AASU promised and would have hoped.  This led to a rapid fall in support for AGP.  Worse AGP split with NAGP being formed as an anti-Prafulla Kumar Mahanta faction.  The 1991 LS and 1991 Assam assembly election saw a comprehensive  defeat of AGP and the return of INC.

1991 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          125               66               29.35%

INC rebels                      2                 3.16%

UMFA       125                 0                1.30%

JD+           96                1                 4.92%

BJP+         50               10                 6.79%

AGP+       122              19               18.43%

AGP rebels                     3                 2.54%

NAGP        85                 5                 5.45%

CPM          29                2                  3.85%

CPI           37                4                  2.47%

ASDC         9                 4                  1.84% (Tribal Left)

BPF          12                8                  4.35% (Bodo)


1991 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                 8              28.49%

UMFA           3                 0               2.44%

JD               6                 0               5.16%

BJP.            8                 2               9.60%

AGP           14                 1             17.62%

NAGP        11                  0              5.85%

CPM           2                  1               4.73%

CPI            4                  0               2.15%

ASDC         1                 1                1.65%  (Tribal Left)

BPF           1                  1               5.05%  (Bodo)

INC won and returned to power but there was no real increase in the INC vote share from its crushing defeat in 1985.  What really took place was the Muslim vote shifted back to INC from UMFA and the AGP vote splintered between NAGP, the Hindutva BJP surge of 1991, the Left parties and the rising Bodo based BPF.   If anything INC lost some of its 1985 non-Assamese Hindu vote to the rising BJP  as well as some of its Bodo vote to the rising BPF.  But the splintered nature of the vote allowed the INC to win and return to power in Assam.

[jaichind]

With INC's victory in 1991 the old INC CM in 1983-1985, Hiteswar Saikia, came back as CM.  His administration was hobbled by the old problems of corruption but also by rising Bodo and Assamese militancy for an independent Bodoland state and independent Assam nation respectively.  The radical ULFA, frustrated by non-progress on rooting out illegal immigrants, acted as a terrorist group to push for an independent Assam.  

Despite all this the record of the 1985-1991 AGP government so poor that in 1996 it did seem INC had a fighting chance of winning despite the reunion of the two AGP factions where NAGP fused back into AGP.  The INC was narrowly defeated due to the death of INC CM Hiteswar Saikia right before the election as well as the AGP-Left-ADSC alliance that managed to consolidate the anti-INC vote for a narrow AGP win while INC was dealing with the AIIC(T) rebellion.

1996 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          122               34               30.56%

INC rebels                      0                 2.60%

AIIC(T)     108                2                 3.71%

UMFA+       22                2                 1.48%

BJP           117               4                10.41%

AGP+       113              67                34.31% (CPM ADSC part of AGP+) (tactical alliance with CPI)

CPI            11                3                 1.95% (tactical alliance with AGP+)

AGP rebels                     3                 2.61%

PDF              3                2                 0.84% (Bodo)

BPF            12                5                 3.09% (Bodo)


1996 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                 5              31.64%

INC rebels                      1                 3.45%

AIIC(T)       12                0                 3.44%

UMFA           3                0                 2.60%

BJP            14                 1               15.92%

AGP+         14                7                33.02% (CPM ASDC part of AGP+)

BSMC           1                0                1.64% (Bodo)

With this narrow victory Prafulla Kumar Mahanta once again became the AGP CM of Assam.

[jaichind]

The second Prafulla Kumar Mahanta AGP administration in Assam that started after 1996 was almost as bad as the first and was rife with corruption.  Assamese extremists and Bodo insurgency continue to build.  The AGP government did work with the federal government to crack down on the insurgencies which toward the end of its rule in 2001 did diminish  the strength of ULFA and a deal was struck with Bodo extremists to create an autonomous BTC with some self-rule for an area of Bodo plurality.  These moves did cost AGP its core Assamese Hindu base which drifted toward INC and BJP.  The INC benefited the most from this since the INC has a much bigger base than BJP in Assam.  But the BJP did gain strength with both Assamese and non-Assamese Hindus which would eventually pave the way for the BJP to displace the AGP as the alternative to INC in Assam.  These drifts cost AGP dear in the 1998 and 1999 LS elections and even an tactical alliance with the BJP in the 2001 assembly elections could not stop an INC landslide.


1998 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          14               11              43.24% (UMFA part of INC+)

AGP+          11                0              13.49% (SP part of AGP+)

BJP            14                 1              24.47%

BPF              2                1                2.61% (Bodo)

CPM+           4                1                6.42% (ASDC CPI part of CPM+)


1999 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14               10              38.42%

AGP+           9                 0              13.69%

BJP+          13                 3              33.21% (BPF part of BJP+)

CPM+           4                0                2.63% (ASDC CPI part of CPM+)

CPI(ML)+     4                1                4.74% (URMCA part of CPI(ML)+)


2001 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          126               71               39.75%

INC rebels                      7                 3.47%

NCP           63                3                  2.51% (INC splinter)

UMFA+      15                 0                  1.50%

AGP+         87              20                21.43% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

BJP+          50               8                  9.99% (tactical alliance with AGP+)

BPF            13              10                 5.98% (Bodo)

ADSC           5                2                 1.11% (Left Tribal)

SP+            24               1                 1.26%

SAP            19               1                 0.79%

AITC           23               1                 0.55% (Bengali Hindus)

ULFA            2                1                0.44% (ex-ULFA extremists)

CPM+         23               1                 1.99%

The INC victory was orchestrated by Tarun Gogoi who was able to claw back a good part of the Assamese Hindu vote back from AGP.  The scale of the victory could have been even bigger if it was not for INC rebels and NCP to split the INC vote.  Even so the INC won a victory on a scale that was the largest of any in Assam since the early 1970s.  As a result  Tarun Gogoi  took over as INC CM of Assam after the 2001 INC landslide victory.

[jaichind]

The Tarun Gogoi INC administration that took over in 2001 was not great but seems to be better than the previous AGP administration.  Still the toll of incumbency and its share of corruption scandals along with necessary crackdown on the waning ULFA insurgency did mean that INC support did fall.  

What helped INC was that AGP itself suffered a split with Prafulla Kumar Mahanta falling out with his own AGP and forming AGP(P) as a splinter.  On the flip side a new Muslim party AIUDF that is centered around the every larger Bengali Muslims emerged to eat into the INC vote.  Still with BJP and AGP splitting the anti-INC vote and a smart  Tarun Gogoi move to form an tactically alliance with BPF did mean that INC was able to return to power in 2006 with BPF support to get it over to a majority.

2004 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                9              35.07%

AGP+         13                2              20.92% (SP part of AGP+)

BJP+          13                3             30.80% (BPF JD(U) part of BJP+)

CPM+           4                0               3.30% (ASDC CPI part of CPM+)


2006 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          120               53               31.08% (tactical alliance with BPF)

BPF            18              11                 3.79% (Bodo) (tactical alliance with INC)

INC rebels                      8                 4.17%

NCP           45                1                 2.13%

BJP          125              10                 11.98%

AGP+       107              24                 21.90% (TNGP part of AGP+) (tactical alliance with BPPF CPI SP)

BPPF           9                0                   1.71% (Bodo) (tactical alliance with AGP+)

CPI             9                0                   1.02% (tactical alliance with AGP+)

SP              7                0                   0.61% (tactical alliance with AGP+)

AGP(P)      93                1                  2.51% (AGP Prafulla Kumar Mahanta led splinter)

LKS            5                 1                  0.25%

ASDC         5                 1                  0.89% (Tribal Left)

AIUDF      69                10                 9.03%

CPM         16                 2                  1.43%

SGS           1                 1                  0.60% (tribal)

ULFA          3                 2                  0.47% (ex-ULFA extremists)

In 2006 it is clear INC lost ground to AIUDF and could have lost power.  But a smart alliance with BPF and the split of the anti-INC vote between BJP and AGP meant that even though INC failed to win a majority  Tarun Gogoi was able to for the government with BPF support and roping in a few INC rebels.  In 2008  Prafulla Kumar Mahanta merged his AGP(P) back into AGP but it was not enough to arrest the further decline of AGP.

[jaichind]

The second  Tarun Gogoi INC administration came in on a roll.  The level of Bodo and Assamese extremist insurgency is clearly receding plus the loss of credibility on the illegal immigration issue meant that  Tarun Gogoi was able to continue to eat into the Assamese Hindu vote.  BJP's unexpected defeat in the 2004 LS elections meant that some of the non-Assamese Hindu vote that went to BJP from INC seems to be flowing back.  AIUDF's strength with the Muslim vote clearly cut into INC support but was a good foil for  Tarun Gogoi to go after Hindu support.  As a result INC was able to defeat a BJP-AGP alliance in the 2009 LS elections and cruised to a 2011 assembly landslide victory even greater than 2001 on the back of a split AGP and BJP even without a tactical alliance with BPF.

2009 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            13                7              34.89% (tactical alliance with BPF)

BPF              2                1                5.41% (Bodo) (tactical alliance with INC)

BJP+          14                5              31.48% (AGP RWS part of BJP+)

AIUDF          9                1              16.10%

UPPL            2                0                2.82% (Bodo)

CPM+           6                0               1.62% (CPI part of CPM+)


2011 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          126               78               39.34%

INC rebels                      1                 2.13%

BPF           29               12                 6.13% (Bodo)

AGP+       115              10               18.14% (BPPF SGS part of AGP+)

AGP rebel                      1                  1.63%

BJP          120                5                11.45%

AIUDF+    79               18                12.61%

AITC        103                1                 2.05%

CPM+        42                0                 1.83% (CPI CPI(ML) part of CPM+)

ADSC          5                0                 1.27% (Left tribal)

Tarun Gogoi's INC was elected for a third term on a landslide victory and INC opponents hopelessly and evenly divided between AGP BJP and AIUDF.

[jaichind]

The Modi wave of 2014 upended the entire Assam political scene only 3 years after the INC 2011 Assam assembly election landslide.  The Modi wave shifted what is left of the AGP Assamese Hindu vote to the BJP as well as a good part of the INC non-Assamese Hindu vote.  In Bodoland the entire non-Bodo vote consolidated behind GSP to defeat the BFP where the Bodo vote was split between BPF and UPPL.

2014 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            13                3              29.90% (tactical alliance with BPF)

BPF              2                0                2.21% (Bodo) (tactical alliance with INC)

AGP+         13                0                4.00%

BJP+         14                 7              38.73% (UPPL part of BJP+)

GSP             1                 1               4.25%

AIUDF       10                 3              14.98%



In the aftermath of the BJP victory in the LS election with the strong likelihood that the the BJP will win the 2016 assembly election key INC leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma joined BJP while both AGP and BPF joined the BJP alliance for 2016 Assam assembly elections.  UPPL which was a BJP ally in 2014 formed a tactical alliance with INC.  The result was a landslide victory for the BJP alliance mostly by consolidating the non-INC vote while the Muslim vote was split between INC and AIUDF.


2016 Assam assembly elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          122               26               31.31%  (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL          12                0                  1.59% (tactical alliance with INC)

INC rebels                      0                  2.59%

BJP+       102               74                33.82% (BPF part of BJP+) (tactical alliance with AGP)

AGP          30               14                  8.23% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

BJP rebel                       0                  1.19%
AGP rebel                      0                  0.79%

AIUDF+    78                13                13.27% (JD(U) part of AIUDF+)

CPM+       47                 0                  1.50% (CPI CPI(ML) ADSC part of CPM+)



BJP won in a landslide victory along with is tactical ally AGP.  Sarbananda Sonowal who actually has a AGP background was made CM.   Himanta Biswa Sarma was most likely hoping he would get that spot so this represents a point of risk for the BJP.  What the BJP did was to use Himanta Biswa Sarma as a strategist to take down other INC governments in the Northeast to prevent a possible future BJP civil war in Assam. So far this strategy seems to be working.

[jaichind]

The 2019 Assam LS election was a replay of the 2014 Modi wave across Northern India which saw BJP sweep the polls in Assam despite the chances of anti-incumbency at the state level.  This was overcome by the Modi brand as well as a BJP-AGP-BPF alliance despite AIUDF standing down in bunch of seats to help INC defeat BJP.  This only provoked a Hindu consolidate behind the BJP alliance.


2019 Assam LS elections

             Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                3              35.79%

BJP+          14                9               47.24% (AGP BPF part of BJP+)

GSP             1                1                2.72%

AIUDF          3                1               7.87%

UPPL            2                0               2.34%



For the upcoming assembly election, BJP dropped BPF from its alliance and brought aboard GSP and UPPL to augment its chances in Bodoland.  AIUDF and BPF will be part of INC led alliance along with the Left parties.    The anti-CAA AJP-RD alliance will also be in the fray.

The assembly election will be decided by how the Assamese Hindu vote is split between the three blocs.  The BJP is hoping the Hindu-Muslim polarization will bring aboard Assamese Hindu vote in addition to the non-Assamese Hindu base of the BJP.  The INC is looking to battle AJD-RD to consolidate the anti-CAA Assamese Hindu vote.  What going against INC is that its old Assamese Hindu leader Tarun Gogoi passed away late 2020 due to COVID-19 leaving it without a Assamese Hindu face.  Another deciding factor is how the election turns out in Bodoland with BJP-UPPL-GSP vs INC-BPF-AIUDF.  Both fronts seems evenly matched so question of if the NDA can win a majority could very well be decided in Bodoland.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/vk-sasikala-announces-to-quit-politics-urges-aiadmk-to-stay-united-and-fight-dmk-3495242.html

"'Was Never After Power or Prestige': In U-turn Ahead of Tamil Nadu Elections, Sasikala Quits Politics"

In a big development in TN ex-AIADMK leader Sasikala, and aunt of AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran, has quit politics and has called for the consolidation of the anti-DMK vote behind AIADMK.

This move seems to have BJP's fingerprints all over it. They most likely made her an offer she could not refuse in return for pressuring AIADMK to take on AIADMK splinter AMMK as an ally.    Sasikala most likely see that AIADMK will most likely be defeated this election and if she is not seen as causing the defeat she could still come back after the election to take over AIADMK.  Now the pressure will be on EPS-OPS duo in AIADMK to try to accommodate AMMK as part of the AIADMK bloc.  If they do they most likely will avoid a landslide defeat but most likely cannot avoid a DMK win.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/left-front-congress-isf-agree-on-seat-sharing-formula-ahead-of-west-bengal-elections-220417

"Left Front-Congress-ISF agree on seat-sharing formula ahead of West Bengal elections"

In WB, the Left Front-INC-ISF alliance worked out.  Left Front will get 164 seats, INC 92 seat and ISF 38 seats.  INC, and especially Left Front, is taking a huge risk by bring in Muslim based ISF into the alliance.  Their gamble is that by signaling that Left Front-INC-ISF is competitive in the Muslim vote they can prevent the anti-BJP tactical vote from going 100% to the AITC.  The main risk that whatever is left of the Left Front Hindu vote will migrate to BJP.

This alliance on the surface can only work out well for the BJP.