Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah R wave plse they are losing NY 19 I hope we win this

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, 50K votes in NY-23 and Pia is still up.... where is this likely to end up?

[Horus]

Meanwhile, 50K votes in NY-23 and Pia is still up.... where is this likely to end up?

All of Tompkins looks in so Della Pia won't win, but he's doing somewhat better than anyone expected.

[Brittain33]

And Ryan passes Molinaro on Predictit by a penny.

[It’s so Joever]

Meanwhile, 50K votes in NY-23 and Pia is still up.... where is this likely to end up?

The D base is done while the rurals have in several places just started counting, that’s what’s “up”.

[Holmes]

I wonder how many absentees are left to count as well from Sunday, Monday and today.

[wbrocks67]

Random batches coming up now.

Duchess is R+2.2 now, down from R+2.7.

More from Ulster but down to D+25, from D+28

[Brittain33]

Such a weird feeling to be on the other side of polling misses for the first time since, like, 2017, but really 2012

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways wait for Delaware to come in, that will crush the lead Ryan has prolly.

[Person Man]

How many votes left to count in 19?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 53,976 (53.44%)
MOLINARO: 47,194 (46.56%)

DELLA PIA: 28,802 (51.47%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 27,158 (48.53%)

I think Ryan is close to winning.

[wbrocks67]

Ulster holding its own in turnout. 37% right now with still some ballots seemingly left to count.

It's topping the redder areas that are only 30-32% turnout (of 2020)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After we win NY 19 UWS and 2016 can't call it an R wave anymore they said Rs would win by 8, that goes to show you Ryan in OH isn't DOA just because Traggy has Vance ahead

[new_patomic]

I suppose we should just be thankful New York is counting its ballots at all, let alone this quickly. Given its prior track record...

[Brittain33]

How many votes left to count in 19?

No one has any idea. But we are about 20k votes away from 1/3 turnout, our best guess.

[Holmes]

Anyways wait for Delaware to come in, that will crush the lead Ryan has prolly.

Molinaro will net 7k votes there?

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, 50K votes in NY-23 and Pia is still up.... where is this likely to end up?

All of Tompkins looks in so Della Pia won't win, but he's doing somewhat better than anyone expected.

Though honestly at this point I'm trusting no >95%'s lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 54,960 (53.44%)
MOLINARO: 47,893 (46.56%)

DELLA PIA: 29,288 (50.78%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 28,383 (49.22%)

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways wait for Delaware to come in, that will crush the lead Ryan has prolly.

Molinaro will net 7k votes there?

Obviously not Delaware alone, that was a hyperbole.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder how many absentees are left to count as well from Sunday, Monday and today.

New York also only requires that absentee ballots be postmarked by election day, so there will be late arrivals that can't have been counted yet. For late arrivals, we're talking maybe 1,000 late ballots total across the district, but they will apparently be at least 75% Ryan based on what we saw earlier in the night, so that could make the difference in a very close race.

[Xing]

This looks really close. We might not know for sure tonight who wins.

[prag_prog]

I wonder if this election's result might end up being a good example of Simpson's paradox if Ryan wins

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ostego is still largely out. Lots of potential for Ryan there.

[Holmes]

I wonder how many absentees are left to count as well from Sunday, Monday and today.

New York also only requires that absentee ballots be postmarked by election day, so there will be late arrivals that can't have been counted yet. For late arrivals, we're talking maybe 1,000 late ballots total across the district, but they will apparently be at least 75% Ryan based on what we saw earlier in the night, so that could make the difference in a very close race.

Oh the screaming that would occur if Molinaro is ahead by a few hundred votes tonight and then it flips to Ryan by a few hundred votes afterwards.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Such a weird feeling to be on the other side of polling misses for the first time since, like, 2017, but really 2012

It really shouldn’t be surprising.  I’ve been saying ever since Dobbs that polls will likely underestimate Dems this year.  Polling misses are usually due to energized low-propensity voters.  In 2016 and 2020 this was WWC Trumpers.  But in 2022 this will be largely Zoomer women.