Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mary Peltola DEM   43,535   37.1%
Sarah Palin GOP           38,416   32.7
Nick Begich GOP   33,949   28.9
Total Write-Ins OTH   1,590   1.4

[GALeftist]

I'm thinking I'd maybe rather be Palin now? Begich is making up ground pretty slowly and he's running out of real estate in which to make it up pretty quickly. Probably still a nailbiter though.

[Adam Griffin]

Mary Peltola DEM   43,535   37.1%
Sarah Palin GOP           38,416   32.7
Nick Begich GOP   33,949   28.9
Total Write-Ins OTH   1,590   1.4

Vote totals in the third dump:



Palin's doing well enough so far to maintain her second-place status.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm thinking I'd maybe rather be Palin now? Begich is making up ground pretty slowly and he's running out of real estate in which to make it up pretty quickly. Probably still a nailbiter though.

Palin will be ahead with tonight's results, but all of tonight's drops are from votes cast in-person or at early voting sites. Absentee Results (probably far less MAGA) will not begin to be released until Aug. 23, and some may not be available until Aug. 26 or Aug. 31.

[Adam Griffin]

FWIW, NYT's estimate of "% Reported" just dropped from 65% to 50%. If that's even somewhat accurate, then Begich definitely still has a chance of second place here.

Also points (assuming it's accurate) toward a turnout slightly north of 40% of RVs.

[GALeftist]

FWIW, NYT's estimate of "% Reported" just dropped from 65% to 50%. If that's even somewhat accurate, then Begich definitely still has a chance of second place here.

Also points (assuming it's accurate) toward a turnout slightly north of 40% of RVs.

If that's real, Begich definitely has the upper hand.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mary Peltola has an excellent chance of winning because Walker is tied with DUNLEAVY in the polls I posted we will see when the next poll comes out

[Adam Griffin]

Another batch added:

Code:

Mary Peltola DEM 56892  37.8%
Sarah Palin GOP	 48304  32.1%
Nick Begich GOP  43038  28.6%
Write-Ins OTH     2150    1.4%

Total Votes         150384

Vote totals in the fourth dump:



Yeah, Palin's got second place unless something major changes in the remaining vote. Among the votes in every dump following the initial one (where she had a 4.7% margin over Begich), her margin over Begich in each has continued to widen (0.5% in dump #2, 0.8% in dump #3 and 2.4% in dump #4).

As more D areas seem to be coming in (not sure if that's what is happening), she seems to be doing better relative to Begich. Still anywhere from 70-90k votes outstanding, though.

NYT now projecting 69% reporting (~220k votes total; 37% of RVs).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wonder how much Peltola gets in the end.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'd rather be Peltola than Begich right now

[wbrocks67]

Said it in the other thread, but it appears that nearly everything out is likely to be more blue, so Peltola should be able to top 40% when all is said and done in the final round, which certainly gives her a shot at beating Palin.

[GALeftist]

Said it in the other thread, but it appears that nearly everything out is likely to be more blue, so Peltola should be able to top 40% when all is said and done in the final round, which certainly gives her a shot at beating Palin.

First preferences also probably have the highest predictive value here. If Peltola clears 40% that's great news for Democrats. Not sure how you'd square that with a Likely R NY-19.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alaska-special-election-fill-remainder-073819934.html

She is leading in the ranked choice voting a winner will be declared sometime after Sept 1st

Nick Begich will be eliminated for the Special but he is gonna be on Nov Ballot

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I want to believe, but idk.

[wesmoorenerd]

Do we know how much of the outstanding vote is this heavily Native rural vote vs generic absentees? And do we know how heavily both are slated to break for Peltola?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steve Konraki just said that Mary Peltola will get the majority of Begich reallocated vote because Begich supporters don't like Palin sending Mary Peltola to CONGRESS, REP ELECT MARY PELTOLA and we will see next week in FL 13 what happens

I guess they will change the ratings once Peltola gets sworn in this is Tossup Tilt D now not Lean R

At the very least it's not Tilt R it's a Tossup

It's definitely a blue wave if we win AK AL, FL 14 Bellwether for the H and we will see what happens in TX and FL Gov

[Holmes]

Steve Konraki just said that Mary Peltola will get the majority of Begich reallocated vote because Begich supporters don't like Palin sending Mary Peltola to CONGRESS, REP ELECT MARY PELTOLA and we will see next week in FL 13 what happens

I guess they will change the ratings once Peltola gets sworn in this is Tossup Tilt D now not Lean R

A good chunk of Begich voters may not like Palin but it's hard to see them voting for a Democrat over a Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Palin is behind I said it's a Tossup but we will see what happens, Palin is behind by 5K votes too

[Lief 🗽]

Some thoughts from Alaska polling legend, Ivan Moore.

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1559976899018838016?s=21&t=acLMd7nFBjp...

[walleye26]

Has all the E-day vote been counted now? I thought I saw some rurals haven’t reported yet.

[wbrocks67]

Steve Konraki just said that Mary Peltola will get the majority of Begich reallocated vote because Begich supporters don't like Palin sending Mary Peltola to CONGRESS, REP ELECT MARY PELTOLA and we will see next week in FL 13 what happens

I guess they will change the ratings once Peltola gets sworn in this is Tossup Tilt D now not Lean R

A good chunk of Begich voters may not like Palin but it's hard to see them voting for a Democrat over a Republican.

It's quite possible that some Begich voters just left it blank

[Minnesota Mike]

96% of precincts now in.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/ElectionSummaryReportRPTS.pdf

Begich, Nick REP        43,968 28.54%
Palin, Sarah REP         49,190 31.93%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM  58,614 38.05%
Write-in                     2,278 1.48%

Looks like Palin hangs on to spot 2 and probably is in good position to to win.

[Lief 🗽]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

[Oryxslayer]

Really depends upon how blue the mail votes will be if ranked choice makes it close, and we probably won't know that for several days. And before people complain about the speed of the count, this is F'ing  Alaska: bigger than Texas and in many places not connected by roads.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.